This is the perennial question that can never really be answered:
"Will the published baggage limits be structly enforced, or will I be able to slip one past the goalie?"
It all boils down to factors that you can not predict or understand.
- Is the flight very full, or is there plenty of room?
- Have the gate agents been having a good day and will they be happy, or did they have a fight with their spouse/partner and they're in a nasty mood?
- Did the people right before you give the agents a hard time, and they've run out of patience?
- How big are the pockets in the cargo pants you will be wearing on the flight?
- How much do you care if you do not get any leeway and they strictly enforce the limits to the letter? How expensive/inconvenient would that really be?
- How good are you at charming strangers?
Unfortunately, there's no way to know these things in advance, and the previous experiences of others on other days with other people and different circumstances can't reliably predict what will happen to you on a different day.
The baggage limits are (almost always) clearly stated on the airline's website, so you should be able to predict those with certainty. If you want to roll the dice, be prepared to accept the consequences.
To quote Clint Eastwood..."You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' "