I've been watching prices for a few months and they haven't budged. Checked yesterday and they were the same they've been. Today, the airfare is $47 higher. Airfare is projected to 'increase significantly' according to things I've read. We aren't going till October- would you go ahead and buy them? Or hold off?
Also asking about Domestic Flights as we are going to Maine in September and that ticket has increased $21 as of today.
To be honest, no one knows. Logic is not one of the factors in airfare pricing it seems. That said:
Yes, fuel prices have increased, but airlines contract fuel way out (with contingencies) and while oil prices are up, that may or may not directly affect aviation fuel prices and contracts.
The buzz seems to be that people are rethinking travel, lower volumes may soften prices, offsetting fuel increases.
This, whatever it is, may be over with next week, go on for months, or unrest and no "war" may disrupt oil supplies for years. (Iran has indicated that it can disrupt flow at any time, and it can, through mines or attacks) Then add in waffling on sanctions against Russian oil, unknowns about Venezuelan oil, impact on prices due to the losses that the Gulf states have suffered, the variables can make an analysts head ache.
But, seeing that October is only 7 months out, why not buy? I typically buy about 6 months out, if the price looks good, go for it, don't fret on whether it will go up or down. Many airlines now allow you to rebook at no cost, so if I see a lower fare (on Delta) I rebook and take the savings as a credit.
Six months prior to flying is usually when I try to get international airline tix for decent prices. April is the month when many Americans start finalizing summer vacation plans. If a lot of them also begin buying their air tickets next month— you could see some rise in prices due to demand.
Some additional discussion here
https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/general-europe/airfare-prices-have-they-spiked
As others have said, it’s anyone’s guess. I will say this, though. Maine in September is high season for fall foliage. I’d book now.
Find out what the change policy is for your airline and class of service.
When the price on my United flight dropped after I purchased it last year, I was able to get a credit for the price difference. The credit had the restriction that it had to be used within 1 year of the original purchase date.
I’m thinking of buying a round-trip ticket to London for the fall even though I haven’t decided where I am going to go in Europe. I won’t have to worry if airfare goes up significantly. On the other hand, if the prices go down I will get the credit and try to use that credit for a flight early next year.
I think $21 is small price to pay for peace of mind given the recent history of this relationship.
Iran has stated that it wants to ensure people learn that attacking their cities and killing their citizens comes with a price. Their biggest lever is closing the Strait of Hormuz and denying oil transit. So there is a strong motivation on their part for this to last a long time.
On 2/24, four days before the war, started I booked flights for an international trip in October. Round trip was $1,266. I just checked the same flights a few minutes ago. The price had increased by $202. This is the first time in 44 years of international travel that I've checked prices again after paying for flights. I pay what it costs and forget about it. However, threads like this one made me curious.
Happy Travels!
Paul has his finger on the variables. Probably no one here knows the market and industry well enough to make an educated guess. The panic is about oil, that despite the increase to $85 today for WTIC is still cheaper than the high of $114 four years ago.
Maine is lovely!
I'd buy now personally though no one can know for sure. According to experts (e.g. CEOs of United and Delta Airlines), higher prices are expected.
for example:
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned this week that soaring jet fuel
prices tied to conflict in the Middle East could soon push airline
ticket prices higher.Kirby, following an event at Harvard University, noted that while the
demand for air travel was still strong, the carrier would likely feel
a “meaningful” impact on its second-quarter finances due to the recent
spike in fuel prices as the Trump administration continues its
military operation in Iran.
Happy travels
