Airfare prices: Have they spiked ?

I just checked an airfare I checked last week. Boston to Paris r/t is now $732, a week ago it was $632. This is for early May, so they've gone up some. It's not hard to check any flight on Kayak.

It all depends in the end.

In January I bought a Premium Plus ticket on United for October IAD->LHR returning AMS->RIC, and got it on a dip at $1460. The price had been running about $1700. Now the same flight in Premium Plus is $3338. The economy ticket had been averaging $817 and had dipped to $790s and is now $934

I was also following IAD to LHR and back for the same October timeframe and economy is still running $750 and a Premium Plus ticket can be had from $2308 with connections through EWR.

Arlines can’t raise the prices too much since people will balk and not go. Additionally I’m thinking that due to potential consumer hesitancy about travel even modest price increases will turn people away.

Airlines hedge and prebuy fuel so it will be a few months before the impacts of the current mess get felt. They are probably waiting to see what's going to happen overall.

I think for the OP it's a combination of things
1. "Just over a month away"
2. Return flight sold out, that means for some reason demand is high for that route during that period... so the cheap fares probably have sold out.

To really compare you have to look at the fare codes to see if it's comparable.

In reaction to oil prices, gas stations raise prices immediately. This is because they charge based on their replacement costs. If they pay a buck, then they sell for a buck- ten. They run through that gas in a couple of days, then they have to buy the next tank at the new price— say a buck thirty-five— so they set their price up 35% almost instantly. Replacement cost forces their hand

Airlines hedge (some very little like United at close to zero, some quite a bit like Air France at close to all of it). Also, fuel is only a quarter to a third of costs. Revenue management algols take time to digest price increases and they consider lots of other factors like competition and demand, etc. Hence, you'd expect prices to rise after delay period— all other things being equal.

Note; all other things being equal is never true. Still, buying now locks in current pricing before the rise. (The chance they go down, well, it exists, but yeah, wow, wouldn’t that be nice surprise?)

So if oil prices stabilize at current 90ish level, normally you'd expect an uptick (all other things staying the same.) If they go back down to pre-war price, then back to previous trends. If oil goes up again from here, expect a drift upward.

Robin J Brooks, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, former Chief Economist at IIF and Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs, has a decent substack on oil pricing right now. And if one could distill his expertise into a simple buy your ticket now or wait strategy, I am pretty sure it would be this: "I don't know.'

I could be misreading him though. His advice might really be more like "Heck, I really, really don't know what to tell you."

So, yeah. here is my advice: Wherever you travel, have a good time! Embrace the history, the culture, the food, and soak it all in!

Happy travels

EDIT: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/price-hikes-outlook-cuts-what-airlines-are-doing-fuel-costs-surge-2026-03-10

Last I looked at my booked Delta Comfort Extra (refundable) RT flights PHX-VCE-PHX for September the price jumped to $2900+ from the just shy of $1700 I paid in November. Prices were headed up to the mid $2400s before he-who-shall-not-be-named’s war.

Remember previous surcharges when oil prices skyrocketed? Instead of raising prices, companies added surcharges to cover some of their increased fuel expense.

I posted last week a 1992.00 price for two tickets on Aer Lingus Chicago to Frankfurt round ticket in June back in August. I took it because United and American were at 2850.00. Checked back this morning and United and American, same tickets, dates and route at 4200.00 Nothing to say.

As the plane fills the remaining seats sell for more. Looks like all the 'cheap seats' are gone

Hard to discern how much affect is oil prices and how much is the 'normal' changes based on supply v. demand.