Air Fare Savings

Never even thought about it after booking.

There is the amount saved, and the choice of flights/seats at the price you want.

I don't play the waiting game. I may be an outlier because I don't shop for airlines based solely on price. I stick to United, usually flying out of IAD and occasionally RIC through EWR to the UK and Europe.

Instead of waiting, I track United airfare from after my last purchase, almost like following the Dow. My observation is that prices start high, drop quickly after about a month, and then only ever go up from there, with occasional dips. Because of this, I usually buy in the 7 to 8 month window. This year was a 10 month window because of a dang good price that surprised me.

Savings from waiting: $0. If I had waited, I believe I would have lost big time.

My reality instead: I track early and buy when I think the market is at an ideal price point. When an airline drops a price because seat inventory isn't moving, it's not normally dropping below the original baseline. They are usually rolling it back from a higher point that failed to get movement.

In January, I bought a Premium Plus ticket to London and home from Amsterdam at 10 months out for $1,400. Today, those Premium Plus tickets are $4,000, and Economy is up to $1,200. Booking early, I got a premium cabin for just $200 more than what people are now paying to sit in economy.

Disappointment amount: $0. I keep checking prices after I buy just to track data for next year, but my disappointment amount stays at zero.

Disappointment amount? Once you have booked, what's the point of watching prices? If you dont look, you wont be disappointed.

Once you have booked, what's the point of watching prices? If you dont look, you wont be disappointed.

On some airlines (e.g., United), you can get a credit if the price drops.

I used to never monitor prices after I bought. With the elimination of change fees that several U.S. airlines have implemented, I monitor prices frequently after purchase. In 2025, I bought a ticket for May 2025 in February 2025; a couple of weeks later the price dropped almost $200 and I rebooked for a credit. This year, the prices for my flights have only increased.

A couple of years ago I booked a trip to Rome in May for a September trip. I checked the fares every few days, and they did drop. I got back $1500 per ticket by cancelling and rebooking. I only got back e-credits (this was on Delta) but if I'd done a refundable fare I would have gotten it all back in cash!

Yes, the airfares sometimes drop, then they sometimes rise. There is no rhyme or reason to it from what I can see.

I buy 3 to 6 months in advance because that's convenient for me and because the only two detailed analysis of ticket prices that I have ever seen support that as the window for the best price. But I would do it anyway because I when I plan too far out something always goes wrong.

I think many of the cancelation and schedule change problems that people experience is in part due to buying too soon.

I fly the cheapest ticket that lets me buy a seat at the time of booking so if the price were to fall 10% I guess I am just out the $85 but I usually save $200 on the ticket vs one that I can change.

My observation is that prices start high, drop quickly after about a month.

VAP, when you say prices "start high" - when is "starting" for you - i.e., how early do you start looking ?

Thank you

Hey Kim, good question. The short answer is that I’m looking at 335 days out.

The long answer is that once I get home from a trip there's a couple of weeks after, that I just don't think about travel. Then the thoughts of travel start creeping in and I'll start checking prices for dates at the furthest point out that’s possible - 335 days. At that point I haven’t selected dates and I am just getting a feel for prices and where they are after the last trip.

Looking back to 2025, I'd paid $1,800 at 8 months out to RIC-EWR-BER and home from LHR-IAD-RIC for travel the first half of October 2025. Which was the same that I had paid in 2024 8 months out in February for travel in October for IAD-LHR-IAD-RIC.

Last November I started checking for the year out. On December 1, I settled on the dates that I would take three weeks leave from work. At the time I was considering flights to DUB and home from LHR, LHR round trip, and to LHR and home from AMS, with an expectation that it would be around February or March that I'd purchase. December 1 is also when my leave dates were settled and within that 335 day window. At that time prices were generally $1800 to $2100. I am just watching, usually checking a couple days a week just to see where things stand. January 1, I was shocked to see flights to LHR and home from AMS in Premium Plus were $1400 and jumped. The next week prices moved to $1600, sat there for some time and then by February were back to $1800-$2100. From that point they have only increased.

A Couple things. I am not a guru, I am not proclaiming some secret rules the airlines don't want you to know, I only fly United and usually from IAD and I am just looking at a flow that seems to work for me.
Maybe not the waiting game, but certainly a watching game.

Thank you so much, VAP. That is very interesting.

I am like you in one sense - I am pretty much only flying one airline, and I am not looking at all sorts of connections. I want to fly Delta via Atlanta, and pretty much know the flights I want.

But I have never been able to start looking 335 days out. I wonder what I would see if I did. This is all so interesting !

Like VAP and Kim, I usually only fly one airline (AA or One World) unless I just can’t. And not because I think they are better - it’s just what works for my location. I start looking even more than a year in advance, because I am slightly obsessed. Even though I can’t look at real dates then, I look at dates soon and as far out as possible. I just like to know what my options are. And if I think I might fly with miles, of course I look as soon as the first date they are available.

I also do reprice after booking. I am usually able to change (or cancel and rebook) if I see a true price drop. It happens, but not too often. Because I have watched prices in general for a while (or maybe the algorithms and dynamic pricing kick in), I’ve never experienced a price change of more than $100 less at a later date.

I don’t have any evidence of this, but some suspicion based on a few things said in the forum, but it appears that the most unstable pricing might be with the fancy expensive tickets. I havent observed proletariat tickets having much shift in price.

I, too, 99% of the time fly one airline to Europe. It’s American because I live in the Ft Worth area and so I get very well acquainted with Heathrow too. American and British Airways seem to be joined at the hip for sure. I now fly Premium Economy and it is one of the smallest number of seats on their planes and so I book early, early because they sell fast and the prices start to rise. Like TTM I check early and often. Supposedly AA will be expanding the premium economy section over the next few years and it will be interesting to see if it makes any difference in the pricing.

One of my strategies is to get into Europe at the cheapest landing point and then travel from there by train. Obviously, if I want to go to Norway I don't fly into Madrid. However, getting around Europe except from the furthest extreme points is worth the travel day because the difference between flying into Paris from Miami for instance can be extremely more expensive than Miami-Madrid or even Rome. It really all depends as everyone has noted.

It use to be you could schedule 3 months out, but now with so many travelers from the US, it has grown to 5-6 months.

Interesting comments by everyone.

Threadwear, you know I think you are among the forums best thinkers. So, work with me on this a bit.

One of my strategies is to get into Europe at the cheapest landing point and then travel from there by train.

I half agree. I would say, “then travel by train, bus or discount airline.” For the way I usually pack the discount airline is sometimes cheaper (and faster) than the train. One just has to accept that its okay to do like the Europeans do and fly within Europe. In theory, you can land in Madrid if that saves money and still make Norway your destination with a RyanAir flight.

It used to be you could schedule 3 months out, but now with so many travelers from the US, it has grown to 5-6 months.

I still do. Typically that’s about where I start booking. But you are absolutely correct for the typical RS crowd destinations.

So, US travelers’ impact this but not the even greater contribution of growth of European and Asian travelers? I just read that the largest increase in flight passengers to Europe this year, so far, has been from Asia. You might be correct, but I haven’t figured out the logic yet, but that is often my shortcoming.

But the other facit of this is that the RS Travel Forum isn’t really in tune with all of the RS travel philosophy, which makes your statement real, regardless of where the problem initiates.

There are places that are not tourist hot beds and there are places where you will rarely meet another American (read some of my trip reports). The RS crowd just doesn’t go there. I wouldn’t either except I think they are fascinating and I want to see them while they are still like Western Europe was 30 years ago. I call them the Back Door to Europe locations. And before that gets too far out of context, I wouldn’t skip the icons of tourism that have existed for a hundred years; just mix it up a bit with the yet not overly exploited destinations.

EDIT: "It used to be you could schedule 3 months out, but now with so many travelers from the US, it has grown to 5-6 months."

Just occured to me that you might be talking about flights and seats? Okay, thats fair. To be honest I have only booked two flights RT involving the US in the last three years. So i am no expert. But prior to that I am a lot like RS when he was quoted as saying that there was no hardship if he were in the back of the plane in an aisle seat that reclined. I dont want to be too far back, but otherwise I agree.

But if it is a problem that has cropped up in the last few years, I will give you the point.

Airlines that survived today are so good at load management and revenue maximization. And they keep getting better.

Book early and keep your Google Flights alerts in place for a price drop and a rebooking. I have saved $200 by rebooking plenty of times.

My strategies are less about magic beans like "book on Tuesday at 2am" and more about being flexible with my travel. I tend to work to secure a good comfortable (not always cheapest) transatlantic. From there I can link to my final destination on a European discounter from maybe €100 or less.

I think in general people probably focus too much on the airfare because it's the single biggest expenditure, but sometimes a cheaper fare isn't cheaper if it means you burn a valuable vacation day because you've just made a 28-hour slog.

keep your Google Flights alerts in place

Agree. I often see prices move up and down by hundreds of dollars.

a cheaper fare isn't cheaper if it means you burn a valuable vacation day because you've just made a 28-hour slog.

Amen.

And not because I think they are better - it’s just what works for my location

Same for me. It's just what works easiest for me (except for the times when it doesn't, of course!! But i am having to fly back and forth to the States so much these past few years that I really value knowing what (generally) to expect. It means I can use my stress for other elements of the travel as necessary. Ha.

a cheaper fare isn't cheaper if it means you burn a valuable vacation day because you've just made a 28-hour slog.

Great point.

I always feel time is the real currency when traveling. Money can be made, but time cannot. So, if I have to spend a little extra to save time, I feel that is the best currency exchange.

Same with comfort. The days of no AC by looking for cheaper hotels to save 30 bucks or many other cost savings of yesteryears are now in the rearview mirror.

My original post was a reflection on many posts from newer forum members who try to beat the airfare system, save a couple dollars between an Uber and a taxi or save a bit and sweat through the summer in hotels without AC. They sound stressed about these issues and I always wonder are they focusing on the experience or just the detailed costs.

Hence, my question about missing a savings and how that really affects oneself. All perspectives that change as you get a little older year by year I suppose.

Once you have booked, what's the point of watching prices? If you dont look, you wont be disappointed.

Well I am not "disappointed" but I always book on airlines that allow a credit if you rebook at a lower fare so the point is to watch for a deal and get a discount

Once you have booked, what's the point of watching prices? If you dont
look, you wont be disappointed.

The point of watching prices is that if they drop significantly then you can cancel and rebook and save $$.

On a trip a couple of years ago, I book four months in advance, watched the ticket prices dropped, and ended up saving $1500 by cancelling and rebooking. (Actually got it back in e-credits since I didn't book refundable, but that was enough for a whole other trip!)

I think in general people probably focus too much on the airfare because it's the single biggest expenditure, but sometimes a cheaper fare isn't cheaper if it means you burn a valuable vacation day because you've just made a 28-hour slog.

Hey! That could be me. It's not that airfare is the biggest single expenditure. It is the biggest right upfront cost of a trip. The places where I choose to fly into and home from will have a part in shaping the structure of any trip. Sometimes the itinerary will force the flight selection and sometimes the flights shape the itinerary.

Personally, time is not an issue, I enjoy trains and ferries, and the journey is also the vacation. If I only intended to visit London, I wouldn't fly to Rome just because it's the cheapest flight to get to Europe. If I am only going to England, then yeah I'm going to fly round trip to LHR. But I have flown round trip to Dublin to visit England, and at the time there was a $600 difference between IAD to DUB vs IAD to LHR round trip. What was going to be a loop through London, Ironbridge, and York, became a loop from Dublin to Holyhead onto Ironbridge, York, London, and then back to Dublin by ferry.

To me, a 28-hour out of the way slog just to get to a fixed spot sounds like going by way of the backside to get to the belly button. I'm not searching for the cheapest ticket just to save money. But if I'm not firmly settled on an itinerary, a lower price becomes the tie-breaker, for destinations where I already have an interest. I may be watching flights to Dublin and home from LHR, LHR round trip, and to LHR and home from AMS. I'll buy the least expensive of those flights, and that'll determine where exactly I'm going. That is why last year I flew to BER to take the train to Prague, then a train all the way to London to fly home from there. I see it as flexibility.

There's a difference between an obnoxious routing vs flights guiding an itinerary. One is misguidedly and unnecessarily adding costs by spending more money for the illusion of saving money. The other simply opens up a different route and a journey I actually want to take.

For those that cancel and rebook and get a credit - repricing - how do you deal with expiration and the requirement that travel begins within a year of the original ticket purchase? Any credit generated is usually expiring the anniversary of the original purchase. That may leave a tiny window to utilize it.

I try to fly Delta because I like their customer service and they used to have the most nonstops to Europe from SeaTac, though my options have increased the past few years.

I keep track of my tickets post-purchase because if the price goes down, they'll happily give me a credit. I got two credits my first trip to Japan 7 years ago. I just got a $280 credit for an upcoming ticket to Tokyo. I just got a $240 credit for a trip to Europe next year.

These are business class tickets so I can't speak to Main Cabin ticket pricing.

I do not generally buy refundable tickets. But I am happy with these credits. In regard to the question about how do I use them within a year, Delta has two different policies for these credits. If you are using them towards a domestic US trip, you have to fly the trip within that period... but if you are using them to book an international trip, you only need to redeem the credit during that period but you can fly later.