Rain forecasts for the Dolomites: How reliable? And what to do if rained out?

Given the un-predictability of weather forecasts, we pay little attention to the weather until the morning. We prepare for about anything and if it looks like it is going to rain that day, we take the rain gear and if it is raining we take the rain gear. And remember when they forecast rain for an area, it doesn't mean a 100% rain in that area all day. This is an area you just have be a little flexible. We follow the idea that if we can control it, then we will worry about it. If we cannot control it, then it is something that we rarely thing about. Too many other things to worry about.

It is not even sensible to look at a weather forecast for October when it is now mid September. I've learned that you can't even trust the forecasts several days in advance.... weather changes. Reliability is not 50/50 this far out. Even a week it can still change on you. I'd plan for anything then you're prepared. I've gone to sleep with thunderstorms predicted for a half marathon in Fano and wake up to no rain. Hope you have a great trip.

Similar question and answers here: https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/italy/weather-forecast-in-the-dolomites-rain

The poster of that question is currently in those locations, perhaps she will return and let you know how the predicted weather and her planning went.

Well, Alpine weather is always fickle, not just in Italy. Don't worry too much for now. Have some plan B's ready. However, as mentioned by others, weather forecasts more than 24 hours away are not reliable anyway.

As many of you advised the weather has been in flux — as we get closer it looks like we may have one total rained out day — and a few with some showers, and others that (fingers crossed) will be sunny. Regarding preparing for potentially getting caught in the rain — we do not plan to set out if it’s pouring — thoughts on rain pants? We don’t usually hike with them but seeing on some lists. Have you ever regretted not having them?

Thanks!

We just finished hiking in the Dolomites the first week of this month. . We had great weather, even though every single day the forecast said heavy rain. You are going a month after us, don’t concern yourself with what will be, just plan for it. We brought rain jackets, pants and gloves, hat for cold temps…didn’t use any of it.

Early October anywhere in the mountains can be unsettled. I’ve hiked in Switzerland where one day the hiking was fantastic and woke the next morning to snow covered mountain tops.

Just figure you might have a day to relax, read, walk in town and rest your legs for the next day of hiking.

For those reading this post because you are concerned about the weather during your trip to the Dolomites … as several others have said, anything beyond a day out (and even then…) is not reliable. Weather changes quickly in the mountains. As close as a week out, we had forecasts for rain all week, every day. When we got there — first week of October — we were fortunate to have one slightly gray morning midweek (a travel day) and blue cloudless skies the rest of the time. The advice others provided to allow for a few possible bad weather days to work around is a good one.