Will future Europe trips cost more than in the past?

It may be fun to speculate but there are so many variables including the exchange rate that it would be impossible to make any kind of a definitive statement -- maybe higher, maybe lower. Other than to say that year to years prices always go up a bit due to inflation alone. Who knows? We will know when we get there? It is low on my radar. I just want to make sure I am there to pay the price when the time comes.

Based on recent “reopening” policies, it would seem that fewer apples will be allowed in the basket, be the basket a plane, boat, hotel, restaurant, museum, etc., for a while. Operating costs will likely remain similar to pre-Covid19 in a lot of ways, even with fewer customers to help offset the costs, so a lot of travel aspects could be more expensive, at least initially. Frank’s got it right, though - still being here to travel is key, and taking steps to make that likely is critical. Travel strategies may require downgrading, or cutting duration, in order to keep things affordable. Providers have only so much discounting they can do.

The Rick Steves recommendation to keep that old jalopy for another year, and finding other ways to be frugal to free up funds for travel, may be how more people will need to operate in the future.

So, is there some consensus in our RS community that COVID is a BIG game-changer, European travel-wise?

I’ll throw my two cents at your question, Kent.

I suspect the Supply & Demand equation may predict an answer on prices. There will be a smaller supply of restaurants, family hotels, etc. in Europe & US since many will be out of business or owners died from the Covid effects. Smaller supply causes prices to go up. And my guess is that the demand (number of people traveling) will either be the same or go up next year since many of us weren’t able to go this year.

Prices for flights are probably going to be much higher with the capacity reduced if they don’t allow each seat to be filled.

Great points made by Jean and the other intrepid posters on this topic!

the answer will be dependent on a lot of economic factors that are not exclusive to the travel industry. Key would be the exchange rate.

Thanks so much, Kent, for inviting us to speculate! You hardly ever find speculation on this forum! ;-)

I think initially costs will be higher because of fewer flights, empty seats, disappearance of many smaller hotels and restaurants, etc. Intrepid pre-vaccine travelers may be lured by discounts but supply-and-demand will work as Jean suggested. Post-vaccine, pent-up demand will lead to higher costs until supply catches up (more flights, more rooms, more meals). That will take awhile. And of course no one knows when that liberating vaccine will become available enough to restore transatlantic travel to something like what it's been before this year.

@Dick, good to see you here, thanks for your comments.

Because I'm in a triple high risk category COVID-wise, I'm wondering how many others of us out there in the RS community are thinking something like:
ok, I'm not 30 or 40 anymore, in fact might maybe over 60 or 70 and might have additional risk factors besides age (diabetes/other pre-existing lung or other conditions).

So, somebody in their 30's or 40's might get COVID and be real sick for 10 days but only have a 1% chance of dying--but due to the risk factors I've got a significant % chance of dying (pick your number, maybe 25% or 35% chance of dying, if I get it) and also exposing loved ones living with me to similar dire results.

So, do above average risk factors affect your thinking on how many travel risks you're willing to take to travel to Europe?

So, is there some consensus in our RS community that COVID is a BIG game-changer, European travel-wise?

For a baseball game analogy, if not an outright rain-out, there’s been a looong rain delay.

Golf? The course marshal just confiscated the clubs. You can still kick the ball, but the water hazard won’t be crossed.

American football? One down only, and you can’t carry or pass the ball.

European football or hockey? The goal’s been turned around.

Chess or checkers? Some of the pieces suddenly aren’t there anymore, and the ones that are left have to stay in their square. And now, many of the squares are off-limits.

As far as costs, the spectators of the games who had sky boxes or stadium suites might be able to weather things easier than those who could only spring for a seat in the nosebleed section.

But anyone with a season ticket isn’t using it now.

Much of your question will depend on the exchange rates — a stronger Euro next year? A stronger USD? Weaker £?

I know that Delta is offering a huge mileage reduction on the Delta One product between JFK & Zürich next winter — 155,000 miles roundtrip which is phenomenal.

The Europeans seem determined to keep traveling somewhat locally and there's a huge push to get coronavirus levels down enough so that everyone gets their July and August holidays on schedule, even if they're talking Corfu now instead of Cape Town.

Yes, a big moment will be: this summer, do Western Europeans get their traditionally big (3 or 4 week + vacations) in July and August.
Or not?
If not, presumably big shock for them.

My speculation is higher because airfare is such a big chunk of a trip. I don’t think those low airfares that we’ve become accustomed to are coming back anytime soon. The budget transatlantic companies will be gone.

It will be for us because we won't have the frequent flyer miles and hotel points, since my husband will not be constantly traveling to large meetings, which they hopefully will have enough sense to do online from now on. My husband says people are really starting to like that format-but this will greatly hurt the hotel/restaurant/plane businesses.

I do have a crystal ball.....and I'm just now learning how to use it. It sat in a box for decades while I awaited an opportune time to break it out. That time is now.
My crystal ball says airfares will increase and tour costs will decrease. It will, financially, be a wash.
Don't forget your raincoat.

...COVID is a BIG game-changer,...... Only IF an effective treatment and an effective vaccine is not developed. If that happens, then it becomes a routine winter flu that may claim 30,000 lives or so each year. Then we will travel and take our chances, as we do now, with the flu and other infectious viruses. Till then, it is a game change for a major section of the population. I do have some confidence for summer 21 and beyond.

Good thoughts, from Frank and the other posters on this thread. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Scary scientific issue with developing a vaccine against a virus like COVID, I guess the virus can morph into more resistant strains, etc.
Influenza pandemic of 1918-1920 killed 675,000 in US and about 50 million world-wide (they don't really know how many).

So, do above average risk factors affect your thinking on how many travel risks you're willing to take to travel to Europe?

Yes, absolutely. Like Kent, I'm up there in years and definitely don't want to get this virus. I'm not really worried about it killing me (maybe I should be) but from what I've read it can be a very scary and unpleasant experience with possible long-term effects. My wife and I can't imagine getting on a commercial flight, especially a long one, until we've been vaccinated. Then, as Frank suggests, COVID becomes another (especially nasty) winter flu that presents an acceptable risk with proper precautions. I hope he's right about 2021. I still want to see Ireland, Scotland, Lyon and the south of France, Berlin, and the list gets longer as time passes.

Did not treat thread ( I usually do before posting ) ,
Short answer ,,

YES

If there's an effective vaccine then I suspect the floodgates will be open to tourism with a pent-up demand for travel. People are already antsy from the quarantine and many sites being closed. They're more than ready to go.

Until there's a vaccine AND everything opens up again I suspect numbers of people travelling will be low. The thing is many planes are jam-packed now due to fewer flights. Not all of them, but it's a roll of the dice. Don't ask me how I know this.

This is the year for local and regional travel.

Ah, I see you've since given license to speculate so yep, I think it'll be more expensive, at least for awhile. In addition to a rise in airfare $, I think a lot of previously overrun attractions will adopt stringent distancing policies for the longer term. Those policies will limit the number of daily visitors and could kick up ticket prices to make up the difference.

LOL, what with, say, the Vatican Museums having been a source of major discomfort for SO many, this isn't a bad thing but may limit opportunities for budget travelers, and make high-season tickets more difficult to land when more people start traveling again. The Vatican's new distancing requirement will limit visitation numbers, "for a period, the duration of which is still difficult to determine..." but I haven't checked yet to see if prices were increased.

http://m.museivaticani.va/content/dam/museivaticani/pdf/pop_up/covid_musei_vaticani_en.pdf

I expect that airfare is going to go up. I do not think the Norwegians of this world are going to be able to survive selling dirt cheap flights. . I also think they’re just going to be less flights and less flights mean they can charge more per passenger.

And people who have gotten very used to $500 airfares to Europe are going to be upset. We saw it last time airfare start creeping up, people were all hysterical because “last year I got $300 and I can’t get that this year.”

I don’t think the other costs associated with travel will increase And you may even see some great deals as places try to jumpstart their tourism industry

As far as private business goes, I suspect it will be supply and demand and so my guess is that side of it will remain reasonably flat, but I have to wonder if we're going to see increased tourism taxes such as airport, hotel, car and entry fee taxes on top of an increased sales tax. Call me cynical but governments will call these temporary increases to help with recovery but will forget to eliminate them.

I can state the following with absolute fact....

Trips will cost in the future.

So, do above average risk factors affect your thinking on how many travel risks you're willing to take to travel to Europe?

Certainly a factor but I worry more about the airport than the plane. I worry a little about the trains in Europe but suspect people will be better behaved than the morons in the U.S. who think masks are a joke,

Once we get “there” we lean toward less-crowded places, i.e., mountains not museums, small towns not big cities. Hubby has well-managed CHF but other than that 😱 we are very healthy and anxious to resume travel. We will try a small road trip in Oregon in July to see how lodging and restaurants handle things. We can always bail out and go home if it is too scary.

As others have stated: Yes, future trips to Europe, when they resume on a more normal schedule, will cost something.

Will it be more or less than what the previously posted prices for this year? Yes.

I am only predicting here, and I know how much some people dislike predictions, but it looks like there will be a window of low cost airfare hotels rental cars and cruises and other travel related items in the near term. The companies simply want some sort of income so they can pay their bills. If they fill a plane at cost, at least they are not losing money by flying an empty plane. Same for other businesses. So look for the $49 airfares on airlines that never had them before. Look for massive frequent customer bonuses (mile/points/upgrades/freebees). If you were already a higher level frequent customer, look for those companies to really kiss your ... well no kissing for the moment. But look for them to do whatever they can afford to insure you do return when you start traveling again.

But this will only be a short window. As more and more people are allowed to travel again, virus or no virus vaccine or not, things will begin filling up. People with bigger brains than I have have already written massive computer programs to predict how much people will be willing to pay for their services and those programs will be let loose on the reservation systems and prices will vary tremendously because of supply and demand. This will be mostly in the airline area because of all the planes that have been removed from service leaving a much smaller fixed level of availability. So until the airlines are sure the demand is there and is sustainable and they get their grounded planes back in service, the prices will spike. How quickly this happens will depend a lot on how "open" the world gets. Countries merely saying they are willing to allow some tourists from a limited area in is not going be enough to restore confidence in the travel industry.

Then there will be those who have always wanted to run an airline or a hotel or a car rental service or whatever will see a demand and jump in. This will be the return of the discount travelers. But this is not going to happen next year, or even the next couple years. It always happens, it will just be very rough and expensive until the next wave rolls in.

And even if a vaccine is approved tomorrow, it will be months before a significant population is vaccinated and we know it will do what it is supposed to. Simply manufacturing the vaccine at volume can take months. Distributing it will take time. And who decides who gets it first? Is it the front line workers exposed to it everyday who really need protection? Or will it be politicians and wealthier people who get it just because? Only time will tell.

As far as costs, the spectators of the games who had sky boxes or stadium suites might be able to weather things easier than those who could only spring for a seat in the nosebleed section.

Wow, Cyn - that is the story of 2020 in one concise sentence.

Thank you to those replying to this so far.

Its impossible to know for sure but I wouldnt be surprised if the price of travel i.e airplanes increased

Hi Estimated Prophet - i’m often no so concise, and today’s been a particularly punishing day, so seeing your comment was a bright spot. Thank you!

So there’s the obvious financial cost, and then an unquantifiable emotional/stress cost. Not to mention the “cost” of time - extra time washing hands more frequently, finding a sink with soap, or ensuring that hand sanitizer is plentiful and accessible, looking over one’s shoulder to see if a non-masked person is getting too close, etc. The pickpockets may not be the only people capable of doing harm to tourists now, even if it’s unintended. Those costs will likely be dismissed by some, but will be weighed by others, to determine whether a trip is worth it.

Its difficult to know without a doubt however I wouldnt be astonished if the cost of movement i.e planes expanded....ironspro

James E, the stress costs of other people making things riskier could be the same at home or abroad. But it’s clearly cheaper to stay home, no airline tickets needed. But regardless, the added risk cost will certainly affect European travel expense, the original question.

I predict that two years from now European travel will be back to normal. Perhaps there will be some modest changes like airfare might be a bit higher.

Europe travel’s going to be costlier in the future. To save expenses, start with a cheaper hotel and find other ways to cut costs.

It depends on the future exchange rates and pricing for all the travel inputs - unknown at this time. On a do-it-yourself trip, you can always make whatever tradeoffs are required to make the trip cost as much as some reference year in the past. There is less latitude with fixed-cost tours because several variables are non-negotiable and baked into the cost. I can make a trip to several non-Euro countries (Poland, Turkey, Bosnia, etc.) cost considerably less than one that uses the Euro as its currency.

Been some good comments/dialogue on this thread; when I started the thread, I was wondering if many would be willing to "speculate," glad they have been!

Some state universities are moving to start classes in late July and begin the fall break around November 16, when it seems logical COVID could return with the usual cold and flu season.

This reaffirms my belief that sweet spot for travel is mid to late July through October.

Thank you, and you're welcome. Big Mike #letsgomountaineers

I just checked again, December dates - Bos to FCO. RT fare is still at $525 - includes one free checked bag and one carry on. (They are similar to BA)

It would be great if that pricing would last. Even "if" I booked a December trip now, there is no guarantee entry into Italy would be allowed by the end of this year. Flight would get cancelled and most likely receive a refund or voucher to fly with a possible increase in price.

It does not show these low fares are a special. British Airways is still priced much higher right now.

My favorite Rome hotel is showing same pricing as last year.