Why your dream European vacation is already booked solid

$876 round trip? From inland U.S. to Europe, I'm seeing the norm to be more like $1500.

After 2 trips in the last year to Europe, we're taking the year off. I am going to Israel next month, however.

You’re not “in” traffic, you “are” the traffic.

I'm trying to visualize London and Paris exceeding the 2019 levels.

Google Flights has trips from Washington Dulles to Paris for under $1,000. PLAY airline is at $680. In June.

I would kill for a thousand dollar flight! Going to northern Spain in may from the west coast is looking to be over $1600, and close to $2000 when you add on for slightly less horrible seats and transport to and from the airport. If everyone could please go somewhere else this year, I’d really appreciate it.

We paid $885 pp back in August for our r/t flight to Iceland for July. I just looked to see what the price is today and it has only gone up $57 pp.

We paid $2825CAD for non-stop flights from Toronto to Venice, and non-stop Zagreb to Toronto, all on Air Transat in June. We purchased on Christmas Day. (For the two of us, not each)

This is for what they call "Eco Flex" fare. It is fully refundable, includes checked bags, and extra leg room economy seats. It's now up about $200.

Since we need refundable fares - can no longer rely on insurance due to new pre-existing health issues - I'm okay with it.

I am concerned about flight costs for next year's plans. Oh well, nothing to be done but wait and see what we are in for.

What a relief to discover my zeal for planning ahead did not get me singled out here! I read the title and worried that there would be a report of a crazy lady who just can’t seem to stop planning trips, even years in advance…..

Seriously, all the typical “rule of thumb” travel thinking isn’t really working for a great number of people. It is hard to call this the “new normal” when nothing about it feels normal. I think I have a huge advantage as a retired person with both flexibility in my schedule and time to do planning/ bargain hunting. Those with limited vacation time or limited time to spend planning vacations are really taking the brunt of this.

If your dream European vacation is already booked solid, perhaps you just need better dreams. 🙄

Carol - you are not alone! I also plan a trip a year in advance.

In June of last year, we began to plan a trip to Greece for June of 2023. Brought flights in September at $1100 round trip (main cabin) on AA. Those tickets are now close to $2,000. My friends from New Orleans (a family of 3) who are joining me on this trip are so happy I helped them save a lot of money by buying early. They did have an itinerary change, but it gave them an opportunity to get an even better flight itinerary at the same low price.

I also usually fly into London each year to visit family. We paid $1100 last year (July trip) and those tickets are now at $1500 +. This year, I will be using airline points for my trip to London but that's not cheap either. I had to pay 112,000 points for a round trip on Delta. In the past, I could get to London for about 70,000 or 84,000 points.

My flights for my Eastern Europe trip were about $1,500 (premium, including taxes, fees, and seat costs), and is now over $3,600. Exact same itinerary and seat class. Crazy!

There may be an issue with flights because there are fewer right now. Still, i am amazed at the rates for tickets i hear on this forum. Maybe its just when, where. And from where i travrel (and the class of travel) but my destinations 90 days out can still be had for $1000?

But once you get to Europe, in general, tourism isn't expected to reach pre pandemic levels this year. Close, depending on which report you read, but not back 100%. So that's good. I suspect there will be exceptions. It will be interesting to see how Croatia does this year, for example.

So I am optimistic.

Mister E I surely hope you are right in travel crowd predictions! Not quite up to pre-Covid rates? I fear our Europe travels this July will be everyone that has postponed or cancelled trips the last few years. All the families like us who have kids who are getting older and summer the only time to travel! Kinda like it’s now or never…..

My last few trips (the last returning in November) to a particular city I go to often things seemed a little lighter with one exception the number of trustfund brats seemed to be higher. I dont know anything but what I read and when the question came up I found a couple of surveys and the consensus on average was this year would be 80% to 85% of 2019. But those were annual numbers and I guess it could be that the prediction is 60% at the beginning of the year and 120% at the end for a 80% average? I think with certain hotspots that Europeans are fond of things will probably be okay. Or maybe Eastern Europe is pulling down the numbers because of the war, but Western Europe will be at or better than 2019. We wait and see if the crystal balls are good or not.

I’m not so sure that the numbers of travelers to Europe this summer will not reach the numbers seen in 2019. It’s probable they may be exceeded. With most of Asia now able to travel abroad this year after 3 long years, the pent-up demand is likely to be immense as the gates open and Japanese, Korean and Chinese travelers can once again travel to Europe. Projections are that there will be 20% more Asian tourists wanting to go to Europe than there will be seats available on airlines that will fly them there. And even if American travelers to Europe hits just 85% of 2019 numbers— the number of available airline seats to go to Europe will still be in short supply since the airlines mothballed many of their jets in 2020 and have not returned them to service. That adds up to higher air fares.
The return to Europe means accommodations could be in short supply for everyone, with the same impact on prices for lodging that we’re seeing on flights from North America.

Sorry but I'm betting on numbers being pre-pandemic levels now with mask/pandemic mandates gone. The number of people I know traveling overseas is the highest since 2019 and this summer will be busy.

Scotland's Tourism Board said 2023 would be 86% of pre-pandemic levels, which I guess is better than 100% or more. Paris is expecting the same. So, perhaps not as jam-packed as pre-pandemic.

The reason could be very high airline and other hospitality-related costs.

For example, our flights are over $1,000 more than when I booked in late July. For many people that's real money.

Booking almost a year in advance has never failed me.

If you want to know what parts of Europe are going to be busiest this summer, just look at Rick Steves' tours and see which ones are in a wait list situation! :)

In the last 2 weeks, my daughter and two other sets of my friends have announced that they are going to Europe this year. It's the first time for my daughter. The other two couples have been, but not in many years. While my daughter is making a grand tour of the UK, one couple is going to Italy and the other to France. I haven't seen this kind of travel activity from people close to me in quite awhile.

But once you get to Europe, in general, tourism isn't expected to reach pre pandemic levels this year.

As you've said, Europe is a big place. And the places you go, mostly Eastern Europe, will probably not be as crowded. But the biggies in western Europe--London, Paris, Rome, etc--will return to craziness especially now that the Asian tourists will also be returning.

Instead of Europe this summer for me, I'm thinking Canada.

Frank II, that makes sense as Canada is such a huge and beautiful country, but do you think Europe will be any less crowded in the future? I suspect it will be even more crowded next year.

China opening up. I'll let you guys do the math. Maybe a bit of a break this year, but 2024... yeah.

The most optimistic reports for Paris was published back in May and predicted a 2% increase in 2023 over 2019; current articles tend to be a bit wishy washy ... maybe because the world has changed a lot since May.

London I found fairly recent predictions of a 4% increase over 2019 but for the UK as a whole only 85% of 2019.

Rome the best I can find is "a return to pre pandemic levels".

The war may be pushing some away from Eastern Europe, but the high costs of travel may be pulling some in too. No idea.

And we’re headed to Paris April 14 for our first visit. Glad to know I’m with the trendy travelers, lol.

PS. We just purchased our tickets about two weeks and got a price of $1,080 into Paris home from London from JFK.

If that makes it any better, flying the other way (Europe to North America) is looking just as expensive next summer. I am going to the northeastern USA in August, and the flights I needed were beyond $1,000/person once you add seats & luggage - steep for Paris to east coast... I was thankful I could finally use the miles I had been hoarding for years!
This said, even $1,000/person would have been negligible compared to accommodation costs over a few weeks....

Absent some crisis I'd expect 2024 to be a record-setting year for travel. 2025 even more so.

But the way prices are going we'll probably have to downgrade to steerage.

It appears France is the place to be, or not to be if you don't like crowds. https://www.cntraveller.com/article/france-most-visited-country-in-the-world In a nutshell, this article states that France will be the world's most visited country by 2025 with a 12% growth. I can't say I blame anyone. It's France, what's not to like?

Anecdotally I can agree that Europe is looking like it will be stuffed to the gills this summer. I've been looking for a rental unit 6 months in advance in the Dolomites. My aspirations have gone from a nice place right where I want it, to any place right where I want it, to any place anywhere conveniently car free, to any place that's not too far away by rental car, to what's a good alternative to the Dolomites?