When Travel Opens Again ... will things be mobbed?

Business travel is not expected to rebound quickly (and even possibly at all in comparison to prior levels, since "work" can happen over video and that's a good way for businesses to cut costs). More importantly, we're in for a major global downturn with some countries weathering it better than others. Travel is a global market. Fewer people (globally) will be able to afford or will prioritize travel relative to more basic needs, or some may take longer to return to their prior travel behavior (some may never return). Some may shift away from international to domestic travel in the short- to mid-term, or even the long-term (who knows?). People who can afford it or are unaffected by the downturn, will likely go right back to traveling. If there are any new constraints on transport (like fewer itineraries, fewer seats per flier mile, curtailed public transportation options, etc) or on attractions or sites, then it can "feel" like "mobbed" even with lower demand. So, if my local subway system cuts its schedule by 30% in the future because it bled cash for so long, the subway cars may feel "mobbed" even though overall passenger figures may be way down because people gave up on the subway in favor of working from home or driving. Just as an example.

I think it's very hard to predict future demand, except perhaps for people on this forum. It's obvious a majority can't wait to resume their pre-covid travel life. But people on this forum are not representative of the entire (global) traveling public, which includes business travelers, young(er) travelers, people who travel infrequently, or people who don't love traveling to the same degree. No idea what the future will look like - depends on a lot of things, including success of vaccination efforts, economic recovery, entry/ exit requirements, future airline fares, ability to cash out points/ rewards, etc.

Reason suggests tourism will certainly explode when the vaccine is widely distributed. This is why I think the third and fourth quarters of 2021 will be a good time to travel if you have the vaccine, before the hordes resume their travel in subsequent years.

I would expect tourism to go nuts in 2022 and 2023, which is what we're hearing from travel experts.

What I have seen here (ontario Canada) at least locally is a distribution of funds. A lot of families or couple have invested in recreation motor sports and back yard pools/spas. Some I have talked stated that they didn’t see traveling for a couple of years and spent there “travel funds” on these instead. So at least for them they don’t intend to travel as they spent now and future years travel budget already.
But I think a lot of it will have to do with how well the economy bounces back after all of this.

Vaccinated young man here, I'm WAITING for the doors to open. Right now planning domestic trips only.
I planned on going to Europe in September but its 50/50 right now. I think each country will have to decide when its comfortable letting people in. Right now there is no standardized proof of vaccination. The day flights open up I'm at the airport, if I can't travel to Europe in Sept/Oct. It would be a beach vacation in Nov/Dec.

If I can't travel internationally til 2022, Southern Europe will wait til April then work my way north for months.

You can read the airline industry's prediction in the below link. Take it for what it is, just an estimate at one point in time by one group. Large industry players like Expedia, cruise ships, and other third party sites that comprise a large share of bookings can certainly give you a decent proxy of interest based just on future bookings alone, since they aggregate that data. But whether a booking actually becomes a "trip" is dependent on more than just interest, but people's willingness or ability to jump through various barriers and make decisions/ hedges based on a lot of uncertainty. A closed border or a no-sail order is pretty much a "no go" no matter how you cut it. The "rules" keep shifting depending on the destination.

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-07-28-02/
Excerpt...(obviously these estimates will change over time as they have more recent info)
"Passenger numbers are expected to rise 62% in 2021 off the depressed 2020 base, but still will be down almost 30% compared to 2019. A full recovery to 2019 levels is not expected until 2023, one year later than previously forecast."

Getting back to 2019 levels two years from now is not some blockbuster recovery.

I actually think price shock may drive people away.
Americans in particular have been spoiled by "cheap airfare". But the low cost carriers are not doing well at surviving this crisis (See Norwegian's recent decision to abandon long haul for good) and the major carriers are furloughing and retiring people as fast as they can. Then you add in the fact that some budget hotel options might not survive.... Travel could get much more costly.

Interesting thoughts, Emma, never though of it this way - personally, I can't wait to be able to get on an airplane and go someplace, even if it is for a business trip. Any change of scenery, anything at all...

I think there will be the usual curve of adoption… The pioneers, the early adopters, the mainstream, the late adopters, and the laggards. On this board, many of us are probably pioneers or early adopters. But I feel like there are many people who are completely freaked out by this whole thing who are going to have to take a lot of convincing to get back on a plane or heck, even drive to another state.

In the U.K. last summer when Covid rates were low, accommodation in most places was fully booked, you had to be at car parks in beauty spots before 9am to stand a chance of getting parked, places were mobbed. Yes, places were full of British tourists, not Americans, Europeans, Australians etc.

Many that have been working from home and not having to pay high commuting costs or new business attire or takeaway lunches will have saved money since March. Those that have lost their jobs are obviously going to have less cash available. Pensioners relying on the stock market performance will probably be worse off. People are keen to travel when safe.

There will probably be deals in the very short term to lure travellers back, but costs are likely to rise in the longer term as operators seek to recoup their losses and in some areas there will be less competition where businesses have folded.

Business travel as we knew it is dead.

We’re all trying to read tea leaves here so who knows. As others have said, those of us on this site are desperate to travel again. Another thing that might affect demand is people traveling with kids. My kids are too young to get either vaccine. I have no idea how that will impact our ability/decisions to travel. Would some countries not allow them in because they’re not vaccinated? Would we feel comfortable taking them places until they’re vaccinated (we’ve been very careful this whole time). Will some of the big draws - museums, places where crowds congregate, etc. be closed or feel too uncomfortable for a while?

J Parkinson is right, it seems like every other Christmas card I got this year talked about purchasing an initial or an upgraded motor home

Not everyone travels with the same dedication and passion, many don't even go every year let alone more than once a year...that said, I am sorely missing my 2 trips from last year, and I do realize that's a first world problem. I intend to wait until there are reports from the field, as in, from people on this site who have visited the places I want to go, in order to get a better feel for what I might encounter to see if it comes anywhere near what I consider an acceptable holiday experience. My first trips will be re-visits to London and Budapest, places where I am happy to just wander and explore, no major sites that I need to see...just food and birds and parks and antiques markets will suit me fine.

I agree with Agnes and Emma.

I will also add that there is still a lot we do not know about the virus and its-now-more-than-one variant. How often will vaccines be needed going forward? Will ample supply be there? Will those be boosters or entirely different? Just as China (I am almost positive I heard) is dealing with another outbreak, will such occur in other places? While we may (possibly) all get comfortable with what is under control in our home countries, will the same comfort level be there for traveling across the globe to more exotic and remote countries? LOTS of unknowns.

While travel is exhilarating, there is often an equal exhaustion factor. Readers who have been retired for a few years may sometimes look back at 80-hour weeks and 7:00 am meetings wondering how in the world did they do that day after day after day. Younger people, many likely working from home, likely have developed both a comfort (and an off-setting frustration) with the more cocooned lifestyle. Travelers will need to be psyched and energized to go (and my guess is that in 2022 there will be many us ready, but will the world situation really be ready?).

Coming from a household that regularly took 2-3 overseas trips for many years, it will be a while before we consider even one. We need to feel the possibility to safely enjoy a BBQ sandwich on the patio of our favorite casual restaurant first, much less going IN a grocery store. It is hard to even think about flying overseas when we have stopped going to the close-by State park, because we do not feel we can safely socially distance.

I know many will pounce on me and tell me I am limiting myself (or not being open minded), but I have actually called the travel providers that had begun mailing big, expensive catalogs and asked that I be removed from the mailing lists for a year or so (so they may save money and keep the world a bit greener), adding that I will definitely be back in touch (or on-line) when I am ready to be tempted.

But, just like each of us is taking varying levels of precautions right now, each of you will know when the time is right.

I think it will be a slow roll to normal life (including travel) as we once knew it. My guess is 2022 and 2023 with some spurts and setbacks along the way. I also do not expect a lot of bargains. Providers have have a lot of expenses/lost revenue to recoup, and new rules for airline overbooking will likely show up in ticket prices.

When Travel Opens Again ... will things be mobbed?

No. I don't think so. We have established new safety thresholds that are closer to 100%. That being impossible, a lot of people will never travel again. In time that may change, but I bet years ..... Just a WAG.

But if you are itching to go now, Montenegro, N. Macedonia and Albania are open for business. Turkish Air will get you there and you can get your US reentry test when you change planes in Istanbul. I spoke to an aquantiance in Budva this morning and she says everything, for the most part, is open ... with a 10pm curfew. Apparently the need to feed the masses became the driving factor. There are a handful of other countries open with a COVID test and there is some real movement. https://www.traveloffpath.com/montenegro-removes-testing-and-quarantines-for-arriving-tourists/

My long haul trips are still on hold until I get vaccinated and enough locations of interest are open fully enough to make a trip worth the effort. If nothing else is open in May, I will hang on to the possibility of taking my fly rod and going to Montenegro for a week. But I am hoping for a much longer trip. We sit and wait.

I don’t agree with Agnes or Emma, whose posts I find to be more on the negative side. I do think travel will ramp up quickly and things will be crowded and more expensive. If this pandemic has taught nothing else, it is that you should not put things off. GO. SEE. DO!

Business travel will be down thanks to Zoom, but tourism will will come back with a vengeance at some point, whether it's later this year, 2022, or 2023. People have been putting off trips for at least two years, so I'll let you guys connect the dots.

If you were interested in Paris in 2019, you will be in 2022, probably more so.

Opinions most certainly can be positive or negative, and yes, some people consistently lean one way or the other. It's an American characteristic to be an optimist.

From where I sit in the Oberpfalz, my take is tourism and the associated businesses are hurting and some will not recover, but European populations have persevered, sacrificed and endured multiple iterations of COVID restrictions to reduce infection incidence. I do not expect the door to be flung open after widespread vaccinations and reduced incidence for business or tourism. I expect governments to protect their populations as the first priority and regulate accordingly. Some folks have welcomed the reduced tourism too. Until vaccinations are widespread and proven and Countries overall settle to under 50/100,000, I do not see things getting anywhere near resembling the good old days. And to add, the requirements to get back to your home Country...

In my small circle of family and friends my nickname is Z!&*OCITY as I am their go to travel planner. I even planned trips for friends and family I wasn't going on. I have all their loyalty passwords and credit card data. I love travel. I've been building our travel nest egg over this past year with expectations of flying off as soon as I can get my vaccine. I'm not in any priority group so I expect I won't be getting mine until the 2nd 1/2 of this year.

BUT lately, I feel my mind set changing... in June of 2020 my husband requested that since I can work from home we move to one of our favorite vacation places in the PNW. We closed on our new house early January.

We love to visit Virgin Gorda - it's one of my happy places. BUT just reading through the steps and cost to get there made me laugh. It wasn't worth it even to visit one of my favorite places in the world. I feel myself moving to the back of the travel line waiting for more normalcy not just my vaccine. :(

On richer areas of Europe, the combination of travel restrictions and local limitations on eating out and open-air events have left a substantial part of middle and upper classes with more money saved over last year, on average than in a long time.

I think intra-European travel might pick up soon, possibly late this summer already. Long-distance travel might take longer.

I visit Venice this July, during a period with few cases between the 1st and 2nd waves. The languages I usually hear on Italian tourist hotpsots were nowhere within an earshot.

Here in Norway, the impact on the touristic trade has been uneven: cheaper/budget (relative to others) hotels are not doing that great, and so several organized tours, but the summer was not that bad for other establishments because there has been a boon of Norwegians traveling within Norway, and they are richer than almost any other nationality, used to dining-out and other prices. So the many businesses gained a bit from this domestic activity.

Business travel will fundamentally change. It was already changing slowly, but the pandemic just show that many business trips are not really necessary, and that will stick. This will have an important impact on airplane travel, though, since last-minute business -travel yield-maximizing pricing has been a mainstay for 3 decades in air transport: we all know that it is often very expensive to book long-distance air fares at a moment's notice, because that is when price-insensitive business travelers often book their journeys (and also fill business lie-flat seats). With a permanent reduction of the business crowd, the cross-subsidization of promotional bargain overseas fares might become untenable.

Also, I think airlines will have to keep their more friendly cancellation/refund policies in place, at least fo a couple years.

I dont think there will be a mob of the impatient average tourists. My guess is that when travel opens up, it will start with a trickle of intrepid independent travelers, until the infrastructure has time to recover enough for big bus tours to start operating comfortably. I think Rick has said as much regarding his own tours. But it's also possible that the "end of the pandemic" won't come with a definite endpoint, but a slow number of steps that lead to normalization. It would be interesting to know what the Chinese think about the future of their travel, since they're such a big market for European tourism.

Good thoughts. Reminds me of the Seine boats with literally every seat and square inch jammed with Chinese tourist. It sure didn't look like much fun at all but maybe they're used to it. We would sit by the bank with a glass of wine and just marvel at it. If someone moved it would be man overboard.

Sights will appear crowded yet absolute numbers of travelers trying to show up will be a lot less than in 2019.

I predict that conditions at popular sights will be similar to conditions at the fitness place I am a member of. Every time I show up, since they have been open again, the place always seems crowded, yet more than half of the machines and treadmills are off limits.

I would guess that a lot of older people who would have traveled, will not travel in the year after Europe is reopened to American tourists. Maybe 10-to 50% fewer travelers will try showing up to sites. I don't know how to predict any better. But capacity will be reduced a lot compared to allowed capacity in 2019, giving the first travelers to show up after sites reopen to Americans the impression that the sites are mobbed.

... The damage to the economy from keeping tourism off limits to Americans, outweighs the perception of safety from keeping tourism closed to Americans.

Mike L: Its not just about keeping American tourists out. I don't know what part of European tourism is American, not that much I presume. Many are all closed to each other and to Asia as well. Some are in lockdowns so tight they make Cuomo's actions seem liberal and reckless. Of course the title "When Travel Opens Again" is defective to begin with.

Thanks to those who’ve provided some thoughtful and constructive input. My thoughts are that folks traveling on business, and Zoom and other applications may have forever changed how some business meetings will be handled, often weren’t a huge part of the crowds at major tourist attractions. Perhaps some would fit in sightseeing on their free time, but a lot of busy attractions have appeared to have had lots of people on vacation.

It’s those people, whose vacations this past year were seriously prevented, who may or may not follow through on prior plans when it’s practical to do so. Maybe some will hold off for a long time before traveling, period. Some places might be open to some visitors, but prohibiting others, or placing requirements on entry that will keep a portion of tourists who want to see a destination, but not undergo the requirements. Others may take the first flight that’s taking off, if they can also land at the desired destination.

I wondered whether there are enough of that last group, and pent-up demand certainly must be increasing the longer they have to wait, that the big sights will be almost overwhelmed. Maybe so many have been mothballed for nearly a year already, that it’ll take some time for them to get up to speed in welcoming visitors again, and even a smaller amount of tourists will be overwhelming.

Lodging and some transportation, too ... will it be harder to get a room, or a ride? Lots of factors will undoubtedly affect all this. For every indication that tourism can be advancing towards normalcy, it appears that something else comes to light to suggest that is not the case. We'll see if there are lots of people wanting to travel, and lots of places wanting, and able, to receive them. I’m anticipating flood gates of travelers opening, a veritable mob. When that is, we'll have to see.

As a side note, 2020 visitation numbers at many U.S. national and state parks exploded once restrictions started to ease. I expect the situation to be even worse for 2021 Spring Break and the summer vacation season; just take a look at the many posts for both on TripAdvisor. The issue isn't just a matter of too many people mobbing the same spaces but the mess being left by those with no regard for leave-no-trace hiking and camping. Just a few of the many news articles out there on the subject:

https://time.com/5869788/national-parks-covid-19/

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/11/900270344/we-had-to-get-out-despite-the-risks-business-is-booming-at-national-parks

https://whyy.org/articles/visits-to-state-parks-are-up-whos-keeping-an-eye-on-water-and-pandemic-safety/

https://www.thespectrum.com/story/news/2020/11/13/zion-breaks-visitation-records-along-other-utah-national-parks/6257903002/

This just turns my stomach:
https://www.abc4.com/news/local-news/almost-10-pounds-of-human-waste-graffiti-cleaned-up-at-zion-national-park/

I agree with Wally about a possible airline merger in the U.S. Yes, American is considered the weakest; but it's because they invested in new aircraft. If a merger does take place, I hope we won't lose our FF miles. When US Airways & American merged, both kept their miles, so there's hope, but nothing is guaranteed. One upside to a merger will be greater access to hubs.

Regarding business travel, I totally agree that it won't go back to the way things were. Zoom meetings will continue. An academic conference originally scheduled for Dec 2020 was pushed back to Dec 2021, and although my DH hopes to attend, the rise of variants makes me nervous.

What Kathy posted about national & state parks is absolutely true. Here in California, many people are now hiking and camping for the first time, but with little regard for others. Trails are crowded with people who don't understand "leave no trace" (or couldn't care less).

I think this event has made a significant impact upon how the culture defines safety and priorities. It will be interesting to see how long lasting the change is.

I think it has also demonstrated that many Americans judge the world by American-centric standards, even those that represent the most traveled and educated in America. I guess, for me, that is the most disappointing revelation.

I would suspect that the number of people who will return to near normal activities (including travel) will be greater than the chatter on this forum may suggest. I have been planning my Spring trip and part of that has been talking to several guides in the region that I am traveling to. They are happy to report that they are getting bookings in the Spring; a significant number being Americans.

Ufkak, I remember historically you don't do very well with bets, but I'd be willing to take you up on this one. Say, Poland, Bulgaria, Serbia, Holland, and Norway? Of course, "mainstream" would be a matter of definitions..

My wife and I have completed the vaccine which is nice but we aren't at the starting gates ready to run. We do feel safer but are still being careful and wearing masks. Remember we've doing this for a year and the habit has caught on. With that said, in the next 6 months we are going to Hawaii, Sonoma and Charleston. We are not be thinking of international travel until 2022. Our scouting teams in our destinations are telling us there are still no crowds yet but I expect that to slowly change. But to answer the question for this thread, I have no idea. There are a lot of factors to consider. BTW, when people do feel comfortable to travel, Rick Steves tours will get mobbed.

And RS anticipation for bus tours is late August 2021. Let's see if he is correct.

Rick’s tours are already run at 50% bus capacity. Will he be purposely running tours with a further decreased number of participants, or will that not really be a factor, I wonder? Late August timeframe for Rick is encouraging for the late September trip we still have planned. After a year and a half of veritable self-quarantining, we can keep it up as long as necessary, but we’re not getting any younger. On the other hand, it’s critical to be able to keep getting older. It would be nice if crowds at sights aren’t overwhelmingly packed, and if mobbed, that could limit what we go to see, once we’ve reached Europe.

I guess I am wrong, but this just seemed to me like anticipation https://www.ricksteves.com/tours/italy/best-italy (click on the dates). I'm sure there is a better explanation. But it did seem consistent with “I'm feeling good. We've been preaching the importance of patience as we grapple with this pandemic, and we're determined to be conservative in deciding when it's safe and stable enough to responsibly restart our tour program — but we feel it's reasonable to hope we'll be offering our bus tours by late 2021. That's our goal.” https://www.ricksteves.com/tours/tour-news/january-2021/hi-from-rick

And if that is for bus tours with advance planning for large groups, taking payments, the processing and the planning and the risk of having to cancel being involved, then I would imagine that maybe, just possibly, independent travel might be possible somewhat sooner.

I have hotel reservations which can be canceled for early October in Rome. I made the reservations 2 weeks ago. I had to go with my 3rd choice hotel as my first 2 were already booked for the room type I need/want.

I listened to a podcast interview taped with Samantha Brown earlier today that was recorded late January. She said she has 2 weeks planned for Europe in August. Vacation with her husband and another couple.

Yes I feel hopeful. I also think it will be busy. Probably not mobbed busy yet. Next Spring more likely for mobbed busy.

Deborah, yup, and if you look at the flights they seem to be filling too. But I suspect a lot of it has to do with fewer flights and with the number of accommodations that are no longer in business.

That’s an interesting suggestion, James E - for surviving lodging options, if there’s more of a scarcity, then the surviving places might experience bigger demand, and a busier scene.

The recent comments caused me to look up some of the tour info on Rick’s Website. At present, for the Best of Tuscany in 12 Days tour, 6 installments are listed, all in September or October. So at the moment, September 6, 2021 is the first date Rick’s prepared to have any customers in Tuscany, at the moment. We’ll see if adjustments get made, earlier or later, for those able/willing to go, and for destinations able/willing to receive guests.

Cyn, an example is Budapest. Literally half the city accommodations are short term rentals (AirBnb). With no tourism, many have been converted to long term rentals, many have been sold outright. Every business on the street where my apartment is located has had to close. I suspect when tourism begins again no less than half of them will not be available. Then how many of the hotels will survive. No way to tell from over here because they are "closed" with out tourism permitted. How many will reopen again? It will be interesting to see. Then you have countries like Portugal, Greece, Montenegro where 15% to more than 25% of their GDP is based on Tourism. Can you imagine the devastation of the last year?

Ricks first Best of Italy begins on 22 August. www.ricksteves.com/tours/italy/best-italy

Ricks first Best of Italy begins on 22 August

but unfortunately not bookable

Interesting. So Rick, who’s undoubtedly not going to promote something outlandish, or put forth extreme engagement for trips that clearly can’t possibly happen, is at least implying that late August/early September is a possibility. All that is subject to final confirmation, or course. Tour dates can get cancelled, but m I don’t imagine he’s relishing having to get a lot of folks’ hopes up, then have to issue a whole ‘mother round of refunds, as happened last year. I haven’t scrolled thru other tour offerings, to see if even earlier dates are listed for other itineraries.

As for the conversion of property owners in Europe to AirBnB, I suspect some of that was happening pre-Covid. That’s certainly been the case in ski resort communities here in Colorado.

I imagine that Rick’s guidebook teams will be incredibly busy in the future, verifying who’s still open, and who, sadly, isn’t still a possible recommendation. Prices and hours of sights, plus procedures for getting tickets. This’ll be, in some ways, almost like starting from scratch. Places in his older guidebooks could well have a “mob” of potential customers, at least for a few months, until conditions get reestablished to some degree of pre-Covid conditions.

Just so there's no confusion: There is no way to sign up for RS tours now. I assume that's because Rick doesn't want to have to go through another round of costly refunds. There are speculative dates attached to the tours--helpful because they signal to potential customers that tours will not be running before those dates--but all you can do at this point is ask to be notified when bookings open. The first line of the page on which you request such a notification is this: "Please note: We haven’t committed to operating tours in 2021 yet."

Obviously, we each have our own lens through which we view and interpret those facts.

I wasn't exactly monitoring the tour situation over the past year, but I believe he waited a while before outright canceling some 2020 tours ... like holding off on nixing the October 2020 tours until well into the pandemic, in case the pandemic hazards somehow cleared up. When did last year’s tours actually get pulled off the availability list, and when? Wonder if the same process has gone into scheduling this year, and if anything gets canceled, when that would happen? At this point, though, it looks like the Opening Up, on some level, could happen well before mid-2022 and certainly before 2025, for people still around.

Cyn, really is a different topic, but in many areas legislation really took the wind out of short term rentals; in other areas like Budapest, where I own two, 2019 and up until March of 2021 the market was spectacular. So good that a lot of illegal operations were opening and there was talk of more restrictive legislation..
Hopefully 2020 took care of that.

Yup, I went and revisited Rick's most current post, available now, on this web site, and he is pretty .... well, you decide:

In 2021, we don't know how quickly and effectively the vaccines will
end the pandemic, but we've lined up guides, hotels, and buses to (we
hope) start up our tours again this fall. While we're not taking
deposits yet (and won't until it's clear that the time is right),
travelers can put their names on wish lists for dozens of great tour
itineraries scheduled for fall 2021. That way, those aching to get
back to Europe on a Rick Steves bus tour will be the first to know
when booking is open.

Kind of OT but on the subject of tours he has said on Monday Night travels that he is hopeful for tours to happen in fall. Last week was the first time I heard him say if fall doesn't happen then he hopes for winter & if winter doesn't happen then he hopes for spring.

On the bright side, limited independent travel could become feasible
later in the year.

Wally, glad you think so, as I have a 3 country trip scheduled this year.

It's hard to predict and I try not to worry about it. If the borders are open, my husband and I are going to Europe in 2022. We're not getting any younger; plus we have family in France and they're aren't getting any younger either. I already feel like I have to live an extra year to make up for this travel-less one. And I don't care if it's so crowded that I have to sit on a stranger's lap on the flight over....I'm going.

Gosh! When I first saw this thread title, my immediate thought was YES! MOBBED and expensive! But after reading through all of this, perhaps not.

CaliMom, the opening of Europe for travel is certainly not developing at full speed at the moment, but when Open status has been achieved, I’m still thinking YES!, like you. But I’m not certain about it being so expensive, at least at first. Even if demand is high and supply somewhat lower than before, places probably will still be trying to get their share of returning visitors, after a long lapse, so I don’t expect exorbitant prices initially. We'll see, and it will cost what it costs, so wherever the price of admission, pent-up travelers will show up in force.

Wally, I wasn’t familiar with that kimono reference, but now understand it’s a business phrase. I watched Rick’s Monday Night presentation tonight, describing great European food and beverage and dining experiences, and submitted a Q&A for his opinion whether many wonderful, earnest restaurants would still be operating post-Covid. Also, would Americans be able to eat in Italy on Sept. 22, 2021? Before any questions were even posited to Rick by the host, Rick declared that he was enthusiastic that we're all making headway regarding the pandemic, and if his tours aren’t happening by late 2021, then they certainly will in early 2022. So his current message is consistent, not precisely committal, but upbeat. Sitting in his kitchen, his clothing visible above the tabletop remained fastened, nothing opened further.

My sense of “late” in a year is November and December, but maybe some others would see July 1 as being in the late part of a year. I’m still counting on our September 21 plane tickets, reserved with refundable frequent flyer points, being used as scheduled. So dinner will happen in Europe that next evening, and we’ll be among many maneuvering for a table.

The big unknown is the EU. My perception is that they are going to represent the most conservative thoughts of the most economically developed country. That is, the EU will open when Germany wants to open. But the EU could fracture on the issue. It did to some degree at the beginning of the crack down. Portugal, Croatia and Greece pushed back and they could again. The difference is those countries have economies that are 20% to 30% dependent on tourism so its a different dynamic for them. Independent non-EU countries have already opened and I suspect they will stay open as conditions are getting better, not worse. Maybe that changes next winter, but I don't know why they would close in May when they were open in February.

Then there is "mobbed" . Maybe not the sidewalks this year, but the available accommodations quite possibly. If tourism is down 30% but 40% of all once available rooms no longer exist; then the results will be some what problematic. In some locations, that could be the situation. It will be interesting to see.

Personally I am not banking on the EU as a whole this year. Might yes, might no. There are plenty of other places of interest that are open for my spring trip, but a built a bit of creativity into my travel plans to permit going to Budapest if it should open in May (I seriously doubt it).

I'm with those who think it will take awhile for travel to get back to pre-pandemic levels.

There are certainly those of us who will jump back in as soon as we can and the travel industry will advertise like crazy to get people traveling again.

I'm thinking our ability to return to travel won't be the current situation then, instantly, full travel availability. Rather than being like a light switch, it's more likely to be like a faucet that is opened some, then some more but might never be fully opened again.

There's a good chance business travel will never be the same because people have figured out how to live without it.

Wally, I know a friend who took the Rome city tour in late December a few years ago And I know the Paris December trip has been there for at least a month or more as I remember it. So I don't think these are new additions to Rick's schedule due to the pandemic.

I suspect mobs will return in summer months so if you want to avoid them as I do, don’t travel in the summer. I had extensive plans to travel to Switzerland basing myself in Lucerne for last April and I would like to do that trip but would prefer to do it in October — probably October 2022.

Rick’s live travel program about Rome tonight included him saying that we’d certainly be traveling within the next year (OK - technically that could be February 2022, and he’s not making the decisions for national governments), and that places will be crowded when things are open again. His insight is notable.

If popular countries open up at different times, I can see that causing unusual crowding in the early openers, especially if any open up before kids have to go back to school in the fall.

After Rick mentioned “us” certainly traveling in the next year, his next sentence mentioned his tours, and that his corps of guides were available in the meantime to help people with questions and plans. So it sure sounded like “travel” and Rick Steves tours were integrated. When people have resumed trips, Rick’s tour clients will be among them, that was clear. And he clearly expects many people at destinations.

The experience of the past year has drastically changed the definition of "mobbed". Now, just being within 6 feet of a single person makes me uncomfortable. I cannot imagine being part of the frenzied mob in front of the Mona Lisa, or in a press of Spaniards during Holy Week processions.

I can't wait to be cheek to cheek on the 4/6 Tram again..... Then I will know that life has returned to normal, and all is good again.