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What does your crystal ball say?

It looks like the vaccine will be rolling out in December or January. Certain groups like teachers (yay!) will be amongst the first in line. Vaccines for the masses might not be disseminated until spring or summer. So, where does that leave you with making a commitment to an overseas vacation? Are you going to roll the dice and make plans for this summer or play it safe, perhaps, and shoot for 2022?

I'm also wondering if proof of vaccination will allow entry to Europe and if that might be a good thing in that destinations will likely be much less crowded.

So, what's your expert prediction? You can include the stock market too since that's where all of our money is at the mercy of forces beyond my control. I'd suggest the markets will soar with the availability of a viable vaccine. (Sorry, off topic. Please don't report me. Yes, I'm the guy who occasionally skips unnecessary faculty meetings because I have an "appointment".)

Posted by
739 posts

It says “Try again later” something it has said since January 1st 2020. I think it may be stuck....

Posted by
4024 posts

Canada hasn't rolled out an official order of importance for a vaccine yet, but I was looking at a list published for the US. I can't recall if it was official or a friendly suggestion by one of your health organizations, but based on it my wife and I would be in phase 4 of 4. So it looks like we may be stuck until 2022 anyway.

As much as I want to start booking, I'm just going to be patient until I know more.

Yes, I'm the guy who occasionally skips unnecessary faculty meetings
because I have an "appointment".)

Our office has such a chronic problem with internal meetings that my boss and I have an understanding that I will reject all meeting notices and if it's really important that I be there then he'll send it to me again.

Posted by
2111 posts

2022 is my guess.

Surprised at the huge volume of travel catalogs that have started pouring in via mail........2021 AND 2022 dates shown.

Posted by
14812 posts

My crystal ball says it's a child's toy and to stop asking it important questions.

According the to experts--Dr. Fauci-- the general population should be able to get the vaccine between April and July. If that is the case, summer travel will return.

On October 18, the TSA screened more than one million passengers in a single day--the highest number since March. (On the same day in 2019, they screened 2.4 million). Travel is picking up. People want to travel. And while the experts are encouraging people to stay home for Thanksgiving, it will be interesting to see how many people ignore it and travel. The same goes for the end of the year.

As for the stock market, don't expect it to soar. It's already seen a jump when the vaccines were announced. By the way, the market is higher now than it was before it dropped due to the virus.

Posted by
3809 posts

No crystal ball, but I asked an online Magic 8 Ball if I would travel to Europe in 2021. It said no 🙁. I hope it's wrong. (For the record, it also said "no" when I asked it if I would eat today... I'm beginning to think that Magic 8 Ball isn't so magic).

I'm in Phase 1 for novel Coronavirus vaccination according to the proposed plan of the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine detailed in this Nature article and in Phase 1-A according to the CDC's current COVID-19 Vaccination Program Interim Playbook.

The new vacation year started Oct 1 at work. I'm minimizing vacation now in hopes of travel summer/fall 2021. If Europe is ready for tourists in spring and the vaccine is my ticket in the door, I'll go earlier... preferably to a typically crowded place that would be nice to see with fewer tourists (perhaps Dubrovnik/Plitvice).

Posted by
3809 posts

On October 18, the TSA screened more than one million passengers in a
single day--the highest number since March. [...] And while the
experts are encouraging people to stay home for Thanksgiving, it will
be interesting to see how many people ignore it and travel. The same
goes for the end of the year.

After a pull back in passenger numbers after Oct 18, TSA reported a million again on 11/20 and nearly that on 11/21. Probably because... people are traveling for Thanksgiving.

For those who have interest in TSA numbers: https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

Posted by
2942 posts

Looks like the smart money is on 2022, with late summer coming in second.

There may be some hiccups in dissemination of the vaccine, which imo makes firm planning for summer travel rather risky. I'd say if you're chomping at the bit to travel then go for it, and if you prefer to play it more conservatively then aim for 2022.

Posted by
181 posts

I’m an optimist so I’m hoping for 2021. I work in Oncology so I expect to get vaccinated as soon as one becomes available. We have a trip booked for late May 2021 to Scotland. With no change fees & free cancellation/fully refundable by xyz, I’m not stressing if I end up having to push it back to the end of the year. I read an article earlier that American Airlines will slowly start bringing back furloughed employees in the first quarter, which shows me airlines are a little more optimistic.

Here’s to hoping!

Posted by
32523 posts

wondering if proof of vaccination will allow entry to Europe

The thing is, it seems to me that the vaccination is a Good Thing, and for most people it will fight the germ and either stop an infected person getting sick or minimize the consequences.

What it won't do is stop vaccinated people who are infected from spreading the virus and making others sick unless they also have had a vaccination. So from a public health perspective I don't see the vaccination as a magic bullet to enter other countries until the amount in the population diminishes dramatically.

Then again I may be wrong.

Posted by
7129 posts

My husband & I discussed the vaccine this week, and I’m predicting that I’ll be in one of the last groups for priority: retired, less than 65, healthy, living is a less-populated area.

I have 2021 travel vouchers for hotels in Italy that I would love to use, but I think realistically I won’t be going until 2022. November & December were always my intense planning months for next September’s itinerary. I haven’t had even an inclination to begin planning again.

Posted by
2942 posts

Dr. Moncef Slaoui, Chief Advisor to Operation Warp Speed, said the U.S. would (hopefully) have herd immunity by May.

I'm reminded of a joke where an economist was asked about his long-term projections for the stock market, and he responded, "In the long term we're all dead."

Posted by
2699 posts

If the vaccine becomes widely available...
If it provides immunity for all COVID strains...
If that immunity lasts...
If the anti-vax nut jobs don’t sabotage the roll out..,
If countries open to US citizens..
If restaurants, hotels, sights have few restrictions...
If we are alive by then...
2022 at the soonest.

The stock market will go up and down.

Posted by
4256 posts

We are assuming late Aug to go to London, but will wait until June to make reservations.
Edited: we are over 65, so hope to be in the middle priority for the vaccine. And barring unexpected problems, the UK will be well into its vaccinations by then.

Posted by
2067 posts

My crystal ball wonders what will happen a year after we all get the initial vaccine series. It wonders if we will be lining up in the same priority line for a yearly booster, while hoping enough vaccine is available for the masses at that time. I suspect masks and social distancing measures will continue to be in effect for a few more years as well. I imagine popular sites with limited entrance tickets for sale to further impact the travel experience.

Time will tell.

Posted by
4138 posts

I turn 75 in January. I have pre-existing conditions.

Crystal Ball says I might be able to get vaccinated before summer. I say I'll get vaccinated as soon as I can.

She has no clue as to whether the last RS Ireland tour in 2021 will happen. She's somewhat more positive about Ireland opening up by then. I will go only if the tour happens.

In the meantime, I wait and hope I'll get to see something like this next fall.

Posted by
2942 posts

Best of luck, Lo. I'm thinking of the crystal ball in the Wizard of Oz, a movie that caused some sleepless nights for me as a young boy. You know today's 75 is yesterday's 55. You're still young relatively speaking.

Tuscon. Lots of songs with that name. I'm thinking of the Eagles ("Take It Easy") and also Bruce Springsteen's "Tuscon Train" at the moment. Mel Tillis comes to mind. Isn't there a statue of Glen Frey on a street corner downtown?

Anyway, what in tarnation is going on with the toilet paper shortage around here? The supply chain is more than adequate to provide everyone with plenty of toilet paper, but I saw a couple of big mommas loading up the shopping cart like Armageddon was coming and they planned to, um, "go to the bathroom" a lot. C'mon, people. Get a grip.

Alan, I saw on CNN that 42 percent of Americans will not get the vaccine. Now, I think that will change as we see the efficacy of the vaccine over the ensuing months. Part of me thinks, "Well, good luck with that."

Posted by
11037 posts

I suspect masks and social distancing measures will continue to be in effect for a few more years as well.

I hope you are wrong---that is truly depressing

Posted by
1103 posts

We are waiting until late 2021 to begin planning travel again, so that means no trips until 2022.

Posted by
11037 posts

What does your crystal ball say?

Hard to say.... cannot see through the mask the crystal ball is wearing

Edited to clarify

Posted by
2942 posts

Joe, you're doing it wrong. The mask should be worn around the neck, not covering any part of your face. At least that's the way it often is around here.

Maybe masks are a good thing going forward. Imagine everyone on public transportation or inside wearing a mask during cold and flu season. What's the downside?

Posted by
433 posts

I have heard Dr. Fauci opine that we should see some return to normalcy in the third or fourth quarter of 2021. By late summer or fall 2021, I am hoping that people will be travelling.

Posted by
3953 posts

Oh, douglas, you made me laugh!

Lo, I was in Ireland first week of November and can testify that you should find it looking like that! So beautiful!

Also, for long term mask use, I lived in Japan for 8 years and it was routine that people put on their mask when they caught a cold to ride the train/bus or go to school/work. Common courtesy. My hope is that some of that WILL wear off on us.

Posted by
2942 posts

Travelmom, I agree. Why not wear masks on public transport? If it's not mandated here in the US hardly anyone will wear one.

Posted by
14812 posts

I'm waiting to see the official CDC announcement on the order of who gets the vaccine. While I'm not yet 65--very close--I do have some pre-existing conditions that make me more susceptible to the virus. I will get the vaccine as soon as I can, and fingers crossed, be traveling next spring. (Of course this is subject to the places I want to visit are open to me.)

I won't mind wearing masks if I have to. But then, if I've been vaccinated, it means I shouldn't get the virus. And if I shouldn't get the virus, then it would be hard for me to spread it. Masks are to prevent me giving it to someone else not preventing me from getting it. But if my destinations want me to wear a mask, I will. It's really not that big of a deal.

Little secret--if you're concerned about taking your mask off while drinking i have a solution--bendy straws.

Posted by
433 posts

In the news today, a third drugmaker, AstraZeneca, has announced high effectiveness results with its vaccine. And there are more vaccines that will be coming.

If travel means going to places where people will have to maintain social distance and wear maks, I will pass. That level of travel is little different from watching travel TV shows and YouTube videos. But I am hopeful that sometime in the second half of 2021, we will see a major return to normal. If not, most restaurants, hotels and airlines will not be able to survive.

Posted by
50 posts

Based on what I'm hearing in the last couple of weeks, I'm actually optimistic for this coming summer for a number of reasons.

First, we've got three pharmaceutical companies now announcing great final results, and reports of initial vaccinations for front line and high risk beginning just weeks from now, in mid December. Followed by roll out to the general public February through April. This is widely reported and not speculation.

And I just read an article that states that England has a similar timeline for vaccine roll out with hopes to complete vaccination during the spring. Every country has their own timeline and nothing ever goes strictly according to plan, but I suspect Europe will aim to be open for business by the summer. While governments will rightly place the emphasis on public health, there is no way they can ignore the economic impact either, so I think if the vaccinations stick to the schedule as it is now, they'll certainly make a push for this summer.

I expect there will be proof of vaccination requirements in order to help balance the health risks vs economic risks. Bottom line for me is that I'm glad we have this forum to exchange thoughts and information during this time.

Posted by
200 posts

I too am hopeful for possibly summer or fall travel overseas. Even Rick said something similar in his Monday night sessions.

I'm going ahead with planning Italy for fall of next year. Will figure out my dates and reserve hotel in the next few weeks. I'm holding off on airfare until about 6 months prior but I wouldn't buy this far out anyways.

Posted by
2599 posts

I keep a Magic 8 ball at work, it is useful for some questions and always amusing, though sometimes I must shake it 2 or 3 times to get the response I was hoping for...when I asked it just now if I would be traveling overseas next year, it obligingly gave the right answer the first time: as I see it, yes. I am not even interested in making plans however loosely, but I will say that if I could somehow spend 5 days in London in late Sept-early Oct I would be tumped over with glee.

Posted by
374 posts

I'm planning on go to NYC for US Open the week of Labor Day, and Europe right after (September 2021) Fingers crossed.

Posted by
1321 posts

I'm with Doug … try again later. 2022 seems about right …. it's not just about you getting the vaccine it's about enough other people getting it as well and then there is the little issue of governments letting us in :(

Posted by
973 posts

My hotels and tours (that I got vouchers for), have all been planned for first week of October. I am cautiously optimistic it will happen. My 2 sons will will be at the end of the pack to get a vaccine, so I’m not making airline reservations until they have theirs. That makes me a bit nervous as I typically get mine 8 months in advance, so now it will be 3 months. If we still have to wear masks, I think we might postpone again. Stinks.

Posted by
3218 posts

With apologies to Jethro Tull, we are skating away on the thin ice of a new day.

I should have enough miles for 2 RT business class flights to Europe by January. I will probably have to book 10-11 months out to get the flights that I want.

Making plans, but not booking nothing (as we English majors say) that ain't refundable.

Posted by
203 posts

As much as I want to hop on a plane, I think this summer seems unlikely. We’ll probably do a road trip here in the States. If it’s up to me, we’d spend next Christmas in Europe. But, I suspect it’ll be summer 2022 before we make it to Europe again. (I’m a teacher, so my travel times are set on school vacations).

Posted by
364 posts

"Maybe masks are a good thing going forward. Imagine everyone on public transportation or inside wearing a mask during cold and flu season. What's the downside?"

For those of us with hearing loss that cannot be corrected by hearing aids, this has been an extremely frustrating experience. While I don’t mind wearing a mask, as someone who depends on a fair amount of lip reading to communicate this has been a very challenging experience. A clerk almost had me in tears last week as I could not hear/understand her between the mask and plexiglass. She was clearly getting annoyed with me. Usually I’m not affected by rude or insensitive twenty-somethings, but I find this whole experience has me carrying my emotions a lot closer to the surface.

So while I certainly agree they are a necessity right now, for some people there is a downside and I am only 60.

Posted by
456 posts

If the vaccine roll-out goes fairly smoothly (yeah, I know, you don't have to say anything), there is going to be a lot of pressure on governments to fully open up in time for the summer travel season ... and I'm thinking there will be some really good deals to get those tourista dollars changing hands again ... and here's another thought to ponder ... let's say at most maybe half of us have been vaccinated, and you need to prove it to get into another country, places may not be as crowded as usual during the summer months and the battle between hotels, restaurants, etc... for the dollar/euro could get interesting ...

Posted by
330 posts

We're hoping to travel summer 2021. As a teacher, I'll get the vaccine (as will the spouse) this spring, which I'm hoping will allow us to travel this summer. We bought tickets to Athens (changeable, not refundable) and have booked hotels (refundable). I go back to work the first week of August, so if we can't go the end of June we probably won't get to go at all. We're cautiously optimistic, but realize it may not happen.

Posted by
26840 posts

I suspect for many potential destinations it will depend on whether we have information as to whether the vaccines not only prevent the recipients from becoming ill but also prevent them from harboring and passing on the infection. I assume the pandemic is still going to be raging here in the US in April. If I'm vaccinated by then (unlikely, I know) but can still have and pass on the infection, why should any other country welcome me? We either need so many people vaccinated that the incidence of infections is sharply reduced (which will happen much later in the year, if all goes well), or we need encouraging results from a follow-up on the participants in the Stage 3 trials. I haven't read anything about plans to try to figure out whether the vaccinated folks can be spreaders, but I assume that will be done. The question is: When will we know? Between that open question and the rather small number of doses of vaccine expected to be available early in 2021, I think it's unlikely we'll be welcome in most European countries as early as April, May or probably even June.

Posted by
8378 posts

Good, thoughtful posts, emma and acraven. I think its a mistake to look at the travel industry and its recovery in isolation from the rest of the situation. There are still months of deaths, long-term medical issues, lockdowns, civil unrest, and political stumbling to come, before anything gets back to a new normal. There are many long-term economic consequences yet to be seen (the stock market is NOT the economy), such as the impact on public transit (in another thread) and medical infrastructure. I want to travel again ASAP, but right now, I am just hoping to make it through the worst of it alive and financially stable. People plan and god laughs, is a old European saying.

Posted by
433 posts

No great grounding in the sciences, much less medicine and infectious diseases, here. And as evidenced by moves that I made in the market in April, my crystal ball seems irreparably broken.

But my hope is that the vaccines, if not an immediate magic bullet, will prove in the next six months a true game changer. Once those most susceptible to serious Covid consequences receive the vaccine, our societies will find a certain number of serious Covid cases acceptable and open up. There are serious economic and other social consequences in not doing so.

And in the US, we seem to be accepting a number of Covid cases and Covid-related deaths that would have thought horribly unacceptable six months ago. The combination of widespread vaccinations and Covid fatigue will result in a resumption of travel in the third quarter of 2021, if not a tad before.

However, I caution anyone risking a dollar on my crystal ball to consider its state of disrepair.

Posted by
1542 posts

I hope to travel in September of 2022, without having to wear a mask in every building I enter, and I think I'm being optimistic. We are in a worse position now than under the first wave, and the logistics of distributing and administering the vaccine are far from clear.

What's wrong with wearing a mask when travelling? Wearing a mask, that's what.

Posted by
3200 posts

I just received a reminder of my reservation for Monday night at the Sofitel Heathrow. Sigh. I have moved it to September 2021 with only a hint of optimism. I accept that it might be years for me, for whatever reason, before I travel. One year of no travel for events outside everyone's control is not a big deal, IMO, but as it continues, habits change. I also think that I will wear masks in public transport situations maybe from here on in, as they are likely to help with regular travel illnesses as well. As far as my independent or solo travel, masks are problematic as when outside I already need to wear dark sunglasses and a hat. Add the mask to this and I look ridiculous, secluded and have created a huge wall between me and people I meet, which defeats one of the enjoyable aspects of solo travel.

As a very young child, I remember the polio epidemic in the 50's to a limited degree. For years my grandmother used to take us to Crescent Park. It seemed for years I was told that next year I'd be tall enough to go on the fun rides. The year that it seemed I would finally be tall enough to go on the rides with all my other cousins (I was the youngest), polio happened and we didn't go to any public place again for years; it seemed like anyway. Crescent Park essentially went out of business before the vaccine allowed a change back to the old, which never happened, as amusement parks closed or became really depressing in our area, so we did not revisit them again. I digressed, I think. Businesses come and go, and the trajectory of life changes. We just don't know and all the guessing in the world will not change it. Over time the fact that we got the polio shot and it's little plastic bubble on top of it, allowed us out, but we then went to different places, never to revisit the old. What did return for our parents is a certain sense of safety, I think.

Posted by
2744 posts

I have fully refundable milage tickets for late May. I’m already assuming those are useless and will be cancelled.

I have another milage ticket for early September. Cautiously optimistic about that trip happening

Posted by
739 posts

The problem is even if the vaccine is 100% effective and distributed to 99.9% of the population of the world we will still have had over a year of this and that will effect things. Both from an economic point of view as well as from a “habit” “custom” and “law” point of views.
So it may be a very long time if ever before we go back to what we had in 2019.

I am afraid to a degree this is one of those watershed moments when you have to world before and the world after and they never really go back to being the same.
I think a lot of these changes may have been in progress and just got accelerated a bit (the remote work trend for example). But other things I think will stay changed that would not have changed. Such as buffet tables and such.
These changes added onto the other travel related issues such as cost of travel, increased numbers of travelers increased security worries about the environment and carbon footprint. The increase int trend of airlines to squeeze in more seats and all the other issues we were discussing in 2017 ,18 and 19 and I am afraid that for many folks on this forum we have seen the high point or golden age of travel.
Don’t get me wrong, travel has been changing forever I am old enough to remember wearing a suit on an air plane but I think for the near future we will look at the travel from the 2000-2019 time frame as the panicle. And that buy time things get truly better we here on this forum (for the most part) will be out of the travel mix.
Not saying we won’t see travel again. Just that it will not be as nice/easy as it was. At least for a long time.
Kind of the way that travel as it was in the 1890-1910s was not the way it was after the end of WW1. It never.
Got back to the same thing. You can’t recreate the past. The way the lessons of 9/11 as well as the psychology damage have permanently effected the way we travel now the COVID-19 will have an effect.
If nothing else restrictions on access to buildings, rules about health at boarders and even just the increased use of masks will have an effect. It is much harder to understand someone if you can’t see there face. We humans are used to facials expressions and without them it is easy to miss interpret the mood and attitude of the person we are dealing with.

All of these issues while having relatively minor effect on there own. Combine to have a bit of a detrimental effect.
I used to travel on business before 9/11. It was easier and nicer. You walked in breezed through security. Stopped and picked up a hot beverage and a cinnamon roll in you way to the gate. If you had someone dropping you off they could walk you to the gate and if you were delayed you could stop in a bar or a restaurant with them until you new departure time. If you had a young or old family member you could drop them off and or pick them up at the gate.

This all changed after 9/11 and we will see changes from COVID-19 as well.

Posted by
2942 posts

I very much appreciate reading everyone's thoughtful, excellent posts. It's worth the price of admission. There are so many bright, insightful people on this forum that I never have to worry about being anywhere close to the smartest person in the room.

Masks may be a good idea going forward. Why not? Nobody wants to get sick while travelling and wearing a mask is no big deal relative to the benefits. I was never a fan of buffets because of things I saw over the years. What else will change going forward?

I realize the stock market is not the economy, although about half of Americans are invested in the market, and with this we're talking about retirement savings, which is important economically.

One comment about masks is they are not particularly effective at preventing the wearer from getting sick. Everyone needs to buy-in to make it effective. Where I live a LOT of people don't wear masks for whatever reason, perhaps political, and it's a shame.

Posted by
10122 posts

Interesting points, Douglas. I think our grandchildren who are experiencing this year will be telling their own children about 2020, the year they stayed home. They will mask up their children and teach them how to wash hands religiously. Their children will roll their eyes at them just as I did at my parents who were saving every bit of bread, string, and ends of soap after the Depression and WWII.

Posted by
433 posts

I suppose I am somewhat more optimistic than some. I think we will see largely a return to normalcy in time.
I do not see mask-wearing as a norm in Western countries. At this time in the US, despite the Covid numbers increasing significantly, we are seeing palpable Covid fatgue and a number failing to masks indoors. Once vaccinations reach a certain level, there will not be a relatively high number of elected officials maintaining many business restrictions and mandating masks.

Posted by
17646 posts

I'm with Richard with the return to normal. But disagree with the mask push back. I just haven't seen that in Texas or on Northern FL where I have spent the last 5 days.

Posted by
23178 posts

Just committed to a London/Paris trip in late September with a generous cancellation policy in early August. Will see.

Posted by
2767 posts

I don’t think mask wearing will be permanently normal but I think it will be more common. Example : it’s February 2024, COVID is a distant memory. You feel a little under the weather but not really sick, a mild cold with some sneezing etc. You go about your business but as a considerate person you wear a mask for a few days until your cold subsides. You do not wear a mask in most times, but maybe your doctors office requires it or for visiting people in the hospital.

My prediction for travel - there will be some sort of proof of vaccine required for most international travel. By summer, if you have that you can go to many (but not all) countries. Depending on that countries situation, masks and restrictions on activities like capacity limits may be in place. Those will phase out as the country gets its situation under control, which will depend on how fast it gets and distributes the vaccine. I don’t know each countries plans so I can’t predict where will be the most “back to normal” destination.

As for me, I’ll happily wear a mask indoors in order to travel. But if things aren’t allowed (museums or restaurants closed or so limited that you can’t actually go) or if masks are required for walking outside then I’ll wait.

I have booked (refundable, with airline miles) a domestic flight trip for July. I have my eye on using my TA P air Portugal credit in October but I’m not officially planning that, just hoping.