What does Rick have to say about the "visa war"

I can't speak for Mr. Steves, and I'm no expert.

Nor am I a fortune-teller.

But, from my reading of the news coverage on this, I believe these are the facts that exist today:

1. On 2 March 2017, the European Parliament passed a resolution stating that the European Commission temporarily must require visas from American citizens visiting Europe unless Washington lifts its existing requirement that visitors from certain EU member nations (Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, Romania, and Poland) obtain visas to enter the U.S.

2. The U.S. requirement has been in place for more than two years, and a two-year waiting period that the European Commission had imposed on itself ended in early April, 2017.

3. The European Parliament has demanded that the European Commission respond to its resolution within two months, which would be by 2 May, 2017.

4. The 2 March 2017 European Parliament resolution is non-binding.

I don't think anyone knows with certainty what the European Commission will do.

As a casual observer, I would have to note that a substantial European economic sector is tourism, 2 May is around the start of the primary tourist season, visitors from the U.S. are a major element of the tourism revenue enjoyed (and relied upon) by European merchants, hotel owners, restaurateurs, and tour operators, so I would expect notable repercussions if the European Commission were to start requiring visas from U.S. citizens.

Thanks for the link, MrsEB. I tried a lot of places on this site, but that wasn't one of them. I was looking under Rick's "Our Tours" section. I thought he might have something to say to those people thinking of taking his tours, but now having 2nd thoughts.

I would expect notable repercussions if the European Commission were
to start requiring visas from U.S. citizens.

Yeah, like the US will retaliate by requiring full visas from the other 450 million Europeans who today only need an online ESTA visa. How's that going to go over with their own people?

Reminds me of the quote from Fiddler on the Roof.

Villager: An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth.
Tevye: Very good. That way the whole world will be blind and toothless.

From what I understand, Canada requires visas from the same countries and this vote applies to Canada, as well, ... even if Justin Trudeau is the leader.

According to Time magazine...
http://time.com/money/4692380/visa-american-tourists-europe-visa-war-european-union/

"The so-called "visa war" hasn't been limited just to the U.S. either. Last summer, the EU threatened to begin requiring visas of Canadians visiting Europe unless Canada changed its rules and started allowing tourists from Bulgaria and Romania to visit visa-free. In this case, the pressure seemed to work: Canada plans to drop its visa requirements for all EU citizens by December 2017."

My educated guess: If the retaliatory move happens it will be just toward Canada. US supplies many more tourists. EU countries will not want to lose their money. To implement visa requirement for US citizens traveling to EU countries all EU (or Schengen - I am not sure) countries would have to vote for it and I cannot imagine that could happen.

"My educated guess: If the retaliatory move happens it will be just toward Canada."

Not going to happen. As Agnes stated above, Canada will be dropping the Visa requirement for the affected countries by December of this year. Therefore we likely won't be affected by any Visa requirements.

Maybe this "visa war" news isn't yet important enough regardless of the vote taken by the EU Parliament on 2 March 2017, since there has been no mention of this on the French news, TV5.

On the spending power of American tourists in Europe, where? Some years back, 2011 or 2012, don't recall exactly, at breakfast in the Berlin Pension I saw a newspaper on the table, Berliner Morgenpost (?) ...anyway, the question focused on spending by tourists in Berlin by nationality. (Welche Nationalität gibt am meisten in Berlin aus?" ) , a big front page article with the pie-chart denoting the number one nationality. Of the various nationalities shown, Americans were not even listed; number one was the Chinese, two or three were Brazilians and Russians.

Per capita vs the number of tourists from each country leads to different numbers. And buying luxury goods at a department store duty free isn't the same as hundreds of us cheap Amerloques buying croissants and baguettes at the corner bakery. A couple hundred croissants = a LV bag.

It doesn't matter what country they are from, they all have to sleep somewhere, buy meals, entry fees into museums and other tourist attractions, plus souvenirs, train tickets and taxi fares. Trade fair attendees aren't spending their time at tourist attractions, but they drop a lot of cash in cities for other things.
Every city and country has this broken down by country and how many overnights are spent in each city. In Germany, the US is not number 1. All of the other European countries visit here, as well as Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Brazil, Russia, China, Singapore, India, etc. etc.

Rick has now added a statement at http://blog.ricksteves.com/blog/will-europe-require-visas/. It says, "Don't worry!"

P.S., My sister once said, "I wish worrying helped more."

Does anyone know why these countries (Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, Romania, and Poland) have been historically singled out for VISA requirements in the first place? Is it only because they were once in either former Yugoslav or Soviet sphere of influence? The exception being Cyprus, which has unique controversies due to Turkish/Greek Cypriot partitions. Is this just longstanding politics that never resolved itself?

Agnes, I don't think it's strictly political or based on the country's prior connection with Soviet blocs or other reasons. Apparently, according to whoever makes the decision these countries still don't meet the requirements set out in the following Act:

"The eligibility requirements for a country’s designation in the VWP are defined in Section 217 of the Immigration and Nationality Act as amended by the Secure Travel and Counterterrorism Partnership Act of 2007. Pursuant to existing statute, the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, may designate into the VWP a country that:"

This is from the following website:
https://www.dhs.gov/visa-waiver-program

Under this section:
Initial and Continuing Designation Requirements

Thank you Nancy! That was very helpful. I had a selfish self-interest in finding out why Poland was on that list (given that I'm Polish and my entire family lives there, except my parents and me who are US citizens). Apparently, the VISA application refusal rate for Poland, while having decreased considerably over time, is still above the DHS threshold of 3%. The VISA is not cheap ($160) so I'm not surprised that many folks from the named countries - Poland included - opt to vacation in Europe (or elsewhere) instead. VISA entry barriers really do make a difference when someone is trying to decide where to spend their time...it tends to "nudge" the decision to a more VISA-friendly country. I remember paying as much to go to Argentina - since my trip, relations have normalized under Obama and the VISA fee went away (I think in this case, it was more of a tit-for-tat deal and Argentina becoming less shunned from the global economic community than security concerns).

I am still trying to figure out what we are suppose to worry about? A $25 online visa? If the money went to Bulgaria, Romania, etc. it would be a good thing. I think they should be charging now. No matter the why, Americans have money and these are struggling economies (FYI: its a Progressive concept).

I don't want to be a negative Nellie (and I'm fairly sure this will never happen - and IF it did, well, I'd just get a travel visa) but...'Brexit' will never happen and 'Trump' will never happen...and we all know how THAT turned out!

Rick finally chimed in, here.

Of all the countries visited in western Europe in the 1970s and 80s, I never had to get a visa prior to departing from SFO except for France, when France slapped a visa in the '80s on Americans going there. Not so in the '70s, no visa was then required by France.

I would have to look at my old passport to see if that occurred twice on the trips of the '80s. I know from memory that was the case in 1987, maybe in '84 too. None of the non-communist countries had a visa requirement until that step was taken by the French. When France started a visa a requirement for Americans, none of the countries did likewise, Belgium, W Germany, UK, Norway, etc.

I mentioned this French visa requirement to an exchange professor from France teaching then at one of the Calif State universities. She saw as tit for tat and said, "you do it to us (which was true, ordinary European visitors in the '70s and '80s arriving in the US had to get a visa first), so we're doing it back to you." But, true also was that the Dutch, Danes, W Germans, Swiss, etc., ie no one else in the non-Soviet bloc, demanded a visa even though their citizens were required to have one in order to visit the US.

What Fred said. The Americans were very upset in the late 80's when France decided they needed a visa to visit. All the military that liked going to Paris on the weekend as well as all of the tourists. This was an incentive to allow EU citizens to visit the US without needing a visa. It worked.

As for Turkey joining the EU, this is probably never going to happen and their chances have grown slimmer and slimmer as Turkey continues to deteriorate.

I'm going to agree with Ms. Jo about Turkey.

As much as people here love Turkey, as does RS, I fear not only will they change their mind about becoming a part of the EU but I predict they will eventually leave NATO and align with Russia. Erdogen wants complete control over Turkey and he's not going to get support for this from the west. He will get it from Moscow. This would be a bad thing for the west.

Even if this happened, and Russia moved military into Turkey, I doubt our current government would do a thing to stop them.

As for visas to Europe, I wouldn't be surprised to see it set up similar to ESTA. We would apply online, pay a small fee, and that would be it. One application for all of the EU.

Note that the 2 Turkey centered RS tours are cancelled for 2017 ...
While Rick Steves' Europe has been sharing the wonders of Turkey with our travelers for more than 25 years, we have made the difficult decision to suspend our Best of Turkey tours for 2017, in light of the continuing political instability throughout the country. We hope to offer our Turkey tour program again in the future.