Weather predictions

I agree that it’s harder to predict. The direction of change isn’t always to warner/drier like you experienced this time. I have friends who were in northern Italy this past month and it was cooler and wetter than usual.

What I do is check the last few years of patterns - older data seems less useful. Then before I go I check the extended forecast. That’s not accurate on a day-to-day basis but kind of shows the current patterns. Kind of. Otherwise it’s just being flexible, I guess.

I'm going to tell people to stop relying on anecdotal data and make their own judgments based on years of published historical data (sites like weather underground or timeanddate.com). It doesn't seem that many people know they can actually look up many years of data for just about any city, and to use that information to hedge their own expectations (at least they can see ranges of values across the same dates from year-to-year, so they have some sense of upper bound and lower bound as well as degree of variability). Like stock, past performance is not indicative of future performance...but that information is still more valuable than asking random strangers who are not weather experts to predict the weather for them (often very far in advance).

I just throw caution to the wind and pack shorts and polo shirts and the odd pair of jeans. If I'm travelling in winter (to somewhere typically cold) then it'll be jeans, polo shirts and a coat. My wife keeps trying to buy me jumpers but I don't wear them, she doesn't understand that I don't feel the cold like she does.

I'm currently in Mallorca and three separate forecast sites each gave differing forecasts. The weather has been a combination of all three at some point.

Lane, yes that is a good question. The only honest answer is "nobody knows". I assume the real question is either "how should I pack" or "what excursions can I plan on".

If the question is really about packing, I sometimes suggest that (1) you can change your packing up until you're on the way to the airport. So you can keep checking the short term local forecast and have a better idea. Some people don't realize that you can get forecasts all over the world on your phone. (2) if you pack the wrong stuff, or the weather changes, you can always buy more or different clothes or layers while there. I think one should always be prepared for rain with a jacket, no matter the forecast.

If the question is really about things to do, the answer is really about flexibility and not having to nail down every minute of the trip ahead of time.

What Agnes said.
I recommend a website and 3-4 years history. The websites providing precipitation data is more important to me than temps.

I layer and travel off season, so long trousers closed shoes, short sleeve shirts, merino wool cardigan and rain coat (not always waterproof) and umbrella. If I know there is consistently hotter temps, trousers are lighter fabric, toss in one pair or capris and sandals as the second pair of shoes. Short sleeves are thinner (and woven fabric), maybe one or 2 sleeveless. Whatever I decide are not going to have me over or under heating. I always pack a sweater regardless of time of year. Even if just for the airplane. The minor adjustments of exactly what items happen when I do my final pack.

I suggest we keep telling them what many of us have been telling them for years now: nobody knows what the weather will be on their dates; but starting about 7 or 10 days before their departure, then can begin to get actual weather predictions and these predictions get more accurate as the date of their departure approaches, and in the last few days before final packing they should check those predictions every day.

We also tell them to look at the weather averages, before the 10 day period before their departure (when they can start getting actual forecasts).

My wife keeps trying to buy me jumpers

"Jumpers" ? JC -- Hopefully you know ( and will share) the American English term for that. What I know as a 'jumper' is something not worn by men .

I'm currently in Mallorca and three separate forecast sites each gave differing forecasts. The weather has been a combination of all three at some point.

See, all the forecasts were right--- just had to wait for the right time. Reminds me of the stopped clock being right twice a day

Jumpers are known as sweaters to us Americans.

We also tell them to look at the weather averages, before the 10
day period before their departure (when they can start getting actual
forecasts).

Averages are just that, means. Extreme highs (1 or 2 sigma above mean) can be much hotter than the average high, and extreme lows can be much colder. And if a given month only has 4 or 5 days of significant precip you could be there during those 4 or 5 days. With that said, use the average highs and average lows as a guide, bring layers, and be prepared to buy what you didn't bring.

I have done winter travel where temperatures we below -20C and snow before we departed but climbed to above 0C. Our trip leader procured a bunch of plastic garbage bags in case we needed to ski in rain. Fortunate the day turned out to be just a threat of rain.

I did a two week walk in England during May. where we were overheating in tee-shirts during the first week. My wife tried to cut of the sleeves of her long sleeve top but we didn't have a sharp knife or scissors (thank you TSA rules). Then the weather turned wet and windy and on the worst (wind and rain) day one trekker came close to hypothermia. Our B&B host took one look at him on arrival and put him in a hot bath to revive him.

Layers and prepare for extremes. The only debate is whether climate change is natural or human caused.

Edgar, I agree with what you said, which is actually what I said in the rest of my post. We answer a thousand weather questions a year here and are well aware that averages are not the same as actual weather predictions made in the few days prior to departure.

We never look at weather since it has little meaning. We have a standard winter list and a summer list. Not a lot of variation in list. We are prepared for a range of weather. About six, seven years ago we were in Rome the first week of June and nearly froze to death. It was so cold that the sidewalk restaurants didn't put out the tables. We return the exact same week the following year and it was high 90s with equal humidity. We were prepared for both.

Jumpers are known as sweaters to us Americans.

Which was why I felt no need for translation but according to another post I was wrong in tnis assumption.

A British jumper is an American sweater; an American jumper is a British pinafore dress.

Many clothing terms mean completely different things across the Atlantic, and can genuinely cause confusion. Vest, knickers, suspenders, pants - all refer to different things in the US vs. UK.

Many clothing terms mean completely different things across the Atlantic, and can genuinely cause confusion. Vest, knickers, suspenders, pants - all refer to different things in the US vs. UK.

Yes but it seems that the majority of British people understand what the differences are yet it appears that in general, the same does not apply vice versa. I'm not entirely sure why that is.

Yes but it seems that the majority of British people understand what the differences are yet it appears that in general, the same does not apply vice versa. I'm not entirely sure why that is.

It has to do with media exposure. I know most of the British terms because I read a lot of mysteries and crime novels by British authors. I assume most British people see a lot of American movies. It's less common the other way around unless an American is particularly a fan of BBC dramas.

But either way, there are a lot of misunderstandings. A British couple, Joel and Lia, have a series of hilarious videos where they guess (wrongly) what many American expressions mean. For example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXeCSMhf4WQ

If someone asks the weather, I may tell them what I experienced but I also tell them what I was prepared for and why? I've been to Ireland twice. Both times in May. Both times I had great weather. Both trips I could have left the rain coat home - but I didn't because it's Ireland. If I go again, even in May, I'm packing the rain coat.

About 90 percent of the locals anywhere I've lived say, "If you don't like the weather now, just wait a minute."

Having said that I found the forecasts in England to be mostly accurate and a nice tool for planning the day.

We did notice that even in the 70s it would feel cooler due to breezy conditions and of course being in the shade, but I kept lightweight rain jackets in my backpack. Churches, castles, and museums could be quite cool.

But either way, there are a lot of misunderstandings. A British couple, Joel and Lia, have a series of hilarious videos where they guess (wrongly) what many American expressions mean. For example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXeCSMhf4WQ

There's a big difference between phrases and colloqualisms and names for clothing, I didn't watch the video in its entirety but I certainly know what "shoot the breeze" means and I suspect most Brits do too, may I suggest that Joel and Lia are not representative of the UK in general.

However, your suggestion that media exposure may well be a factor is cetainly something that I considered. Certainly American movies are the de-facto exposure to American culture for the rest of the world along with music and as a child growing up in the late 70's/80's almost every film I watched was American (hence why I always thought American houses were huge sprawling mansions where kids bedrooms were the size of the entire upper floor of my house and then I visited the US and realised it was mostly a fallacy) whereas the same doesn't apply in return, with the exception of British music (and on a lesser scale, film and TV series) so the exposure to terminology is pretty much one sided.

I seem to travel in late April-late May, or maybe in September, so my basic favorite items always seem just right--I do check the weather a couple of days before leaving and might add an extra light sweater. I have a perfect travel jacket that is lightweight, attractive and allows a thin T, light sweater and even another sweater if need be underneath. My recent trip to the Baltic states saw 70 one day and snow the next night with 30 degrees in the mornings--I was so glad I'd added a couple extra warm layers--including gloves and a warmer than usual scarf.