Value of air reward miles in the future?

I think the best thing to do here is to immediately get the best cash
back credit card you can.

I have always believed a good cash back card is better than any travel reward card because that money is fungible...you can spend it on travel if you choose or whatever pressing need you have. My AMEX card offers me 6% back on groceries, which is ~ 85-90% of my spending right now and will be in the foreseeable future. Another card (Citi) has 3% back on any purchase, so I use that for any non-grocery purchases. But the third one (Bank of America) has three reward categories which are worth practically nothing to me in the foreseeable future: dining, travel, and gas. That card will sit in the drawer.

The airlines have sold more frequent flier points to credit card companies in a desperate race to get some revenue quickly. But in the end, they will devalue those programs like they have in the past, or make them so unpredictable that they're a pain to use. Not worth it to me playing those games. I pretty much avoid all loyalty or travel type credit cards that lock me in to a particular vendor or spending category (the only exception I found was Southwest and that's because their rewards program is transparent, easy to use, and actually works..but I still don't have their branded credit card). It's good to be flexible, especially in these times.

The number of miles/points required to get a flight does go up nearly every year and more and more restrictions are placed on mileage redemptions to make them more difficult all the time by many airlines all driven by demand and availability. This will be no different.

With half (or fewer) seats available, the number of seats available for miles will also take a similar reduction. Meaning those coveted international business class seats to the more desirable spots will mostly disappear (there were never more than 2 available on most of the popular flights anyway) or go to double the current miles for the unrestricted seats. Since the miles do represent a liability on the balance sheet, the airlines will be happy to see them used regardless. So look for more great mile redemption bargains on short hop domestic flights. 5,000 for Denver to Vail on United? Probably! But a complete waste unless there is nothing else and you just want to use the miles to screw the airline. :-)

I never coveted the miles nor did the credit card tricks to get them. I got them from actually flying and used them to get family members flights where they needed to be. So, no real loss to me if I never use them.

The only strategy I have for air miles/credit cards is like for so many other things, to wait and see. We had a great trip to Europe in September 2019, and expected to have another great trip in 2021. But as of this moment, none of us knows when or if things will ever get back to the old normal, or what the new normal will be.

Just do what most Europeans do - actually pay for a flight!

A little bit regarding Agnes’ credit cards. The 6% cash back on AMEX (BlueCash Preferred?) is fine but the card has an annual $95 fee so you have to spend $1,500+ before the rewards kick in. Great if you have a family but I’m single. Right now Citi offers a 2% cash back card with no annual fee! But don’t use those cards if you are making international purchases. AMEX charges 2.7%, Citi charges 3% for foreign transactions.

I have a no fee Amex card on which I earn 1.25 points per dollar spent. What I like about it is that those points can be transferred to a number of different airlines for redemption in their programs. What I look out for is that when one of their program participants offers bonus miles on a transfer and I can benefit by that, I’ll jump on it before the offer expires. Last year I was able to get a Miami>Venice and a Torino>Miami ticket for 41,000 points on Iberia. Not one of my favorite airlines but at that price, I couldn’t care less. In October I’m scheduled to be on the Villages of South England tour. Air France had a transfer bonus so I got my round trip for 44,000 points. I’m flying Delta and if I used the points on my Delta Account, the same trip was 90,000 miles. You have to learn how to game the system.

Just do what most Europeans do - actually pay for a flight!

Why? I’ve taken 18 flights - many in business class -, got two tickets for a friend who accompanied me and have have #19 scheduled. Using those miles has saved me many thousands of dollars and allowed me to make trips I could not have afforded.

The 6% cash back on AMEX (BlueCash Preferred?) is fine but the card
has an annual $95 fee so you have to spend $1,500+ before the rewards
kick in. Great if you have a family but I’m single.

I live solo, so I am buying groceries for one (and a few goodies for my boyfriend from Trader Joes). It's easy for me to spend over $3,200 on groceries annually (that's only $267 per month). Cash back earned 6% x $3,200 = $192. Total minus annual fee is $192 - $95 = $97. So I get at least $97 back for spending I would incur anyway (none of it is trumped up just to get a reward because we're talking about groceries here). And that's a conservative amount because I'm spending much more now due to COVID...more like $400 per month. You don't have to wait for the rewards "to kick in", they get credited starting with the first purchase as long as it's coded as a grocery store, but there is a one month lag in redeeming. At the time I signed up, AMEX had a $150 or $200 bonus for new signups to boot, so that would offset the annual fee for at least a year or two.

I found the CapitalOne Venture card the easiest to redeem. It's 1.5% card credit or cash back for every purchase with no gimmick categories (or maximums that I know of) to keep track of.

I'm not as pessimistic about future airline prices. There's no point in increasing fares by 50% if there are no takers, the economy is bust, and leisure travelers have less $ and enthusiasm to travel. It will be more important to see what happens to business travel since that segment is more important to the airlines' viability in the future. And who knows what the shape of future business travel will look like....it's obvious now that a lot of it can be avoided, but we'll see what path companies take.

I’ll continue to use my Southwest credit card and accumulate points and status as we fly (or at least hope to soon) a lot to see family. My United credit card is a legacy from when I lived elsewhere and United had the best connections. I had booked a trip to Kauai with miles which we had to cancel. So, I’ve got a lot of miles but I too am leaning more towards cash or other uses for points. Bit I really don’t plan on accumulating more United miles now. Capital One Venture is allowing points to offset charges such as take out meals, at least for now. That has helped buy us some great dinners and keep local restaurants going. My Costco card has a good cash back feature and I’m using it more.

The value will be zero if those airlines go under due to their financial crisis. If there's not enough demand to fill their seats, they go out of business. Money grubbing no more than any other business - what the market will bear.

So how about some great "no-fee" cards?
Here's our wallet: CapOne Quciksilver, 1.5% Cash-back on everything (I believe there are other varieties), no foreign transaction fee.
TD VIsa Signature, 3% on Dining, 2% on Groceries. 1% on anything else, no foreign transaction fee.
Amazon Visa through Chase-3% on Amazon purchases, 2% on Gas, Drugstores, Restaurants, 1% on the remainder, no foreign transaction fee. And foreign restaurants etc code up correctly on both of these.
BOA Mastercard -3% on gas, 2% on Groceries and shopping clubs, 1% on the rest.
Chase signature Visa, only 1% but rotating 5% categories every three months, these are usually gas, groceries, restuarants, and travel purchases in different quarters
A similar Citi MasterCard with rotating categories.
Target , which gets 5% off at the register at Target.

So we are always getting at least 3% on gas and 2% on groceries and dining, sometimes 5%, along with 1.5% (or better) on the remainder.

I know I have asked this here before -can anyone provide an actual dollars and cents calculation as to how much the miles/points programs are really worth based on how much was spent?

I’ve taken 18 flights - many in business class -, got two tickets for
a friend who accompanied me and have have #19 scheduled. Using those
miles has saved me many thousands of dollars and allowed me to make
trips I could not have afforded.

...which makes the first sentence of this thread so bizarre to me... it seems like there should be a lot of appreciation for an industry that created a scheme that allowed you to do things like taking trips you otherwise could not have afforded...

Hey Dave! 20 years ago the airlines treated their passengers fairly well. Unfortunately, since then, their unending quest for fees has been unrelenting. Remember when you didn’t have to pay for checked luggage, that you got a decent snack even on short flights, that you weren’t totally crammed in like a sardine, that you didn’t have to pay to chose a seat? My air miles accumulated by using credit cards for purchases as opposed to air travel. I was fortunate to own a business where I could charge expenses and get miles or points. I once transferred a significant number of miles from my regular AMEX card to the Delta Sky Miles Card because Delta offered a 25% bonus on the transfer. Less than 6 months later, Delta changed the number of points needed for their always difficult to find seats. A round trip to Europe went from 50k miles to 90k. Business class? From 80k to 210k. I got hosed. I lost my love of airlines because of how they now treat fliers. BOHICA!!!

I always thought cash back was 1 :1 but if I use my Alaska miles its at least 1: 1.2 and with my Chase card it's like 1:1.6 and Delta miles is 1:1.4 so how can cash back be the best use of the miles? The Points Guy updates his "mile to money" comparisons every year.

Hey, Philip! I did not start flying regularly until 2004. I chose US Air for the frequently-needed Nashville-Charlotte non-stop. Those were the days of US Air's double bankruptcy. Surly gate agents. Flight attendants who served drinks/snacks with a glare. Ground crews who peed on the luggage while giving passengers on the plane the finger. (Well, maybe that last one is a little hyperbole... they didn't give the finger). I moved to another town and eventually switched to Delta, which I feel has treated me well. But I guess I started with a pretty low standard.

Hey Dave! I remember often flying on Piedmont Airlines quite often during the 80’s on short vacations from South Florida. It was a terrific regional carrier with friendly and efficient staff, clean and roomy planes and passenger friendly. Then they were acquired by US Air - possibly the worst airline I’ve ever flown. So sad. Delta is a pr3tty decent carrier but I still hold a grudge about what happened to the value of my Sky Miles.

I am currently booking flights every week for business travel in June and July. There are no cancellation fees and the deals are amazing. I’m booking fares that are literally half of what I paid last year.

Since we, the American taxpayers are the ones that are bailing out the airlines I expect their tune of complete gratitude to continue.

I have the AmEx Delta Skymiles Platinum Card that gives me mile from what I spend as well as travel on Delta. Consequently, about once ever two years, I am able to get an award for a free flight to Asia, Australia or Europe. When my charges exceed $25,000, I get an extra 10K miles. Consequently, I charge almost everything, including my regular bills on AmEx. I use very little cash anymore.

I have checked on the cost of some flights in the future and find the cost of those flights to be relatively cheap. That is probably because few people are flying.

Just do what most Europeans do - actually pay for a flight!

Maybe if you're a Lufthansa flyer but the folks in the BA subforum at Flyertalk can hold then own against any American when it comes to racking up Avios/miles via non-flight activities.