According to these projections, the typical RS traveller won't be among the first to resume international travel. I suppose there will always be exceptions, but this would seem to indicate that organized tours may have to cater to younger travellers for awhile.
(If you have trouble reading the article on a computer, try on a mobile phone)
I read that article this morning as well and had the same thoughts about tourism marketing efforts.
I think organized tours will have a hard time for awhile, even outside of demographics. The logistics of large enough hotels and restaurants will be unpredictable at first - what’s open? Latest rules on social distancing
(can the restaurant even seat 30 people at once? Does the museum stop letting people in once it reaches 50% capacity?). 2-4 people in families or friend groups can pivot easier than 25-50 on a tour.
It does seem like the near to medium future of long distance travel is likely to be younger people and those with a high tolerance for risk, both health risk and logistical risk.
In the U.K., few people under 75 go on organised tours, as people prefer the flexibility of doing their own thing. People in Europe have 4-6 weeks paid annual leave, so are not time pressured.
It makes sense. Younger people are going to have more of a go with the flow and flexible attitude anyway. If you’re 23, it isn’t your last chance to see Paris. You’re a lot less likely to feel robbed if it’s impossible to get into the Louvre that day.
And, yes, I think group tours will be the last to return. A lot of hotels that marketed to the group tour market can’t survive an entire year without tourism, especially if they’re out of the city centre area. They may provide parking for a tour bus and acceptable accommodations, but be too far away for most independent travelers to consider. And, the quirky local places that Rick likes are going to have a real hard time as well. It might be easier for them to finally sell or the owners to retire than to ride out a very uncertain future.
I’m in my mid-40s with a tween and a teen and I’d be on the next flight to Europe tomorrow if I could. So I don’t think the article can be 100% generalized. :)
I have a category to add, although it may not be that big numerically: those of us on one side of “the pond” with family on the other side. I know I will probably travel sooner to see my parents in the States than most leisure travelers will think about traveling.
(Of course so much of that depends on the relative outbreaks at my origin and destination and return points, but given that 1) France is doing much better; 2) my parents are in rural Oklahoma; and 3) I won’t really care if I have to quarantine on either end, I think I have more incentive to go. Maybe I am overthinking though.
This is coupled with the idea in the back of my mind even though I am well aware that we do NOT have scientific proof yet that those who have had Covid-19 are immune for a little while. I.e. since I have had it, however mildly, in March, I see myself as NOT presenting a risk to my parents or others.
As we learn more about the virus, my assumption based on nothing may be proven wrong. That would obviously change my calculus.
The article, like everything else, is just a prediction. It is not law. It is not rule. It is just their prediction of who they think will travel first. It has no affect on you. The article was for travel marketers to plan who to target for business. No one is going to stop you from traveling just because you are not in one of those categories.
Even among epidemiologists, there is a wide range in the amount of risk they are willing to take.
These are the personal opinions of a group of 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists who were asked by The New York Times when they expect to resume 20 activities of daily life, assuming that the pandemic and the public health response to it unfold as they expect.
For plane travel, 20% of the epidemiologists expect to fly this summer, 44% from 3 to 12 months from now, and 37% expect to fly in 12 months or later.
While the article is a prediction based on whatever they chose to base it on, it does seem fairly accurate in its assessment, at least among the people I know.
Yes, there are those who will be on the first plane out of Dodge to the first place out of the country that will have them (a very small number of the people I know). Most people I know have a more cautions approach to non essential travel and have no plans to go anywhere they cannot drive to within a day or so anytime soon. Several (also a small number) are even claiming they will never travel again. I fit in the middle group for now.
The airlines are already seeing a large uptick in reservations for domestic flights, especially AA who has already added back a significant number of flights to their summer schedule over what they initially had planned. So it is anybody's guess when travel will really kick in again. There does seem to be a large pent up number of people wanting to travel domestically. Is the uptick due to Vegas opening again? ;-)
This seems like an industry - promoting puff piece that's as much speculation as anything thats come up here in the forum. It seems to be based on some sort of generalized psychological stereotyping that doesn't take into account the impacts of government restrictions, or economic factors, or the actual public health threat. Speaking of "travel this summer" as being " the post-Covid-19 era" seems like silo-thinking. I think things are moving too fast for any predictions on who will jump first.
Stan, I have to agree that it is too soon to call anything "post" covid-19 at this point. The numbers are still going up in many parts of the world, including the US. Oh, and WHO just announced an official Ebola outbreak again in Africa. As if one killer virus at a time wasn't enough.
And, in Iran numbers had gone down but now they are on their way up. Some experts are wondering if this could be a second surge. No predictions.
Agreed, Absolutely too soon to call anything post-Covid.
And obviously I know this article doesn’t prevent me from traveling if I am not in one of their categories!
<> please be specific. This outbreak is in the Republic of Congo and in a remote area where few travelers go. Congo also has a large Measles outbreak and they are trying to cope with it in a country where medical teams are challenged by terrain and violence. I suspect the reason WHO even mentioned it was due to the fact that Congo is in a medical crisis not to warn the world about an ebola outbreak.
Last large outbreak, Africa as a continent was devastated by a 40% + drop in tourism even in countries thousands of miles away....because of media and fear mongering. New York City was closer by flight than a good number of African countries. It didn't stop people traveling to NYC.
Please keep it in perspective.
I am 74 and have taken 16 RS tours and can not wait to take another RS tour in 2021.
Just got off a call from my company with Dr. James Shepherd, Associate Professor of Internal Medicine for Infectious Diseases at the Yale School of Medicine. He said he expects a vaccine in the fall of 2021. That will be the game changer, I believe, to when many of us will start international travel again.
What exactly is a typical RS traveler?
I don’t fit any of the 3 categories CNBC has listed and I cannot wait to travel internationally again. I am a 50-year-old professional so I’m 10 years off one of those listed categories. 😉
I travel leisurely both independently and with my husband and in both situations, we eschew tours as we use RS travel guides when visiting new locales. RS books along with Fodors are my comprehensive go to‘s.
@ Donna: Oh no...fall of 2021 is a long time to wait for international travel. :-(
Do we now engage in wishful thinking, or mentally process unpleasant predictions from the "experts"?
Just got off a call from my company with Dr. James Shepherd, Associate Professor of Internal Medicine for Infectious Diseases at the Yale School of Medicine. He said he expects a vaccine in the fall of 2021. That will be the game changer, I believe, to when many of us will start international travel again.
Believe what you want, and travel when you want but I'll be traveling way before tthe fall of next year. I take no notice of any predictions from anybody regardless of how many letters they have after their name.
It seems all the experts conradict each other. And surprisingly, none has a crystal ball.
I don't make predictions, I don't follow predictions, I don't believe predictions. I prefer hard facts.
And I don't understand what the difference is in risk factor between traveling domestically and traveling internationally.
I guess all the discussed possibilities of a vaccine in the Winter of 2020 or Spring of 2021 are damnable lies. Good to know. Thanks. I dont know what I would do if it weren't for the RS Forum folks to bring me the facts.
What is the opposite of "wishful thinking"?
If there is a vaccine in late 2021, how long will it take to produce the millions of doses necessary?
Probably not until Fall of 2022?
Rick Steves’ recommendation to pack light is as applicable as always. People should allow some extra room in their luggage for masks. Hopefully folks, young and old, will include them with their other attire. They won’t go out of fashion for awhile. 😷 🧳 ✈️
JamesE, my point. Those of us who want to wait until there is a vaccine may be disappointed that the announcement of a vaccine doesn't mean it will be immediately available. We will all have to decide what level of risk we are willing to assume. Difficult decision for we who are of a certain age.
locals? am of a certain age as well. Depending on your risk tolerance, fist wait till the vaccine is available, then one or two seasons to be sure it's more reliable than the flu vaccine. 2024 maybe?
When you're a couple in their mid 70s that's a demoralizing thought.
Frank II, Most people just don't understand risk or chance. That's why people throw billions at lotteries every year just knowing they will win and they never do. They just don't understand that the whole system is rigged (well, rigged is not the right word because lotteries are not rigged, but the chance of anyone winning is so small it might as well be) in favor of those selling the tickets so they keep as much as possible.
The risk of catching this virus is significantly no different at home or in most of the rest of the world right now. Walking through a shopping mall or a farmer's market, a museum, or any other public space, is no different here or there. If someone has the virus and you get too close to them for too long there is a risk and a chance you might get it. If you are washing your hands as suggested and wearing a face covering, your risk is diminished but never completely eliminated.
The only place that it is different is in the getting there and back through the amount of time spent on a plane. Several studies have shown that simply being exposed to any virus is not necessarily enough to infect you. It is repeated exposure to an infected person or persons shedding the virus in large numbers that will cause you to catch it. So if you happen to have an infected person on the plane with you, the total number of hours spent (8 to 10 for most international flights, varying due to where you are coming from and going to of course) may cause you to be repeatedly exposed to the virus in large enough quantity to get infected. Domestic flights are usually shorter, so the risk is lower but once again not zero.
This all results in people feeling safer traveling domestically because of the perceived higher risk of catching the virus during the long plane travel. Also, many people would rather be relatively close to home if they do get very ill because they feel they will have a better chance of reaching home (whether or not that last is true will depend on how sick they get and how soon they rush back home).
I am not a doctor, although I did play one on the radio once. I got the above info from various reputable sources on the internet.
Great, thank you, its all good stuff not found on the TV 24 hours a day; and from a much more reliable source.
My weekend flight to Vegas had no empty seats so I am guessing people sort of felt safe. Maybe they knew airplanes have more air changes than anything short of a laboratory Clean Room.
Catch and release in Lake Bellagio James?
I was just going stir crazy. Hadn't been to Vegas in nearly 30 years. Now I remember why. Wasn't terribly impressed, but it was good just to get away.
Wednesday going out to the country with a handful of friends for Sporting Clay's, then Friday probably to the Guadalupe river to get some casting practice in to get ready for Europe.
I retired in 2010 and we have traveled overseas 2-3 times a year, except for 2020. We are ready to get back to foreign travel in 2021.
Having traveled a lot, we see a lot of Seniors (most are retired). This article doesn't mention Seniors, but focuses on younger people that are not at significant risk from Coronavirus fatality.
Even in my age group (early 70s), with no underlying conditions and in great health, our risk of fatality is extremely low. Still, foreign travel is problematic due to all the restrictions in getting there and being able to tour. Even if we could fly to Europe, what could we see if we were there?
Also, if we contracted the virus and had to be hospitalized (the hospitalization rate, even for my age group is still low), we could be quarantined for at least 14 days.
I started traveling overseas when I was 33 years old and had a new job in the Middle East. We had a free trip paid for (usually to Europe) every year and a trip back to the USA every two years. We never took tours, we did it on our own with tour books like Fieldings or Frommers as our guide. There were way fewer tourists in Europe back in the 80s, and we did rather well. Still, looking forward to getting back on that travel horse.
At Sherando Lake along the Blue Ridge Mountains, it's release only, no catch.
Now we are talking
I am not traveling any time soon. But, if I were to go to Europe now - I think a RS tour would be the way to go. I believe RS and his team will develop protocols to maintain health safety through-out the trip.
Alternatively - visit smaller towns in places like Italy. Eat take-out from a counter or outside at a street cafe; visit off-the-beaten path sites. (There are many.)
I think avoiding crowded public transportation is significant. That's where a RS tour can really help if RS can minimize the number of people on his buses. Get coached around from town to town without having to use a crowded train. For trains, paying extra for first class on crowded routes to "social distance" may be worth the extra money as well.
SBiF, I think you are onto something there. Without having explicitly formed these ideas and strategies, our next trip (Sept 2020 if the stars align) accommodates independent independent travel for most of the time where we will be in relatively remote parts of Italy and Greece.
