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There's a light at the end of the Tunnel!!!!

I have been fortunate to work at a large medical center and yesterday I received a Covid-19 vaccination. The stress has been hard to deal with over the last 6 mo. as the hospital staff has been pushed to the edge both physically and emotionally. After I got the vaccination I realized that if enough people are vaccinated then all of us, who have a passion for travel, will be able to return traveling.

Like all of you I miss the planning and actually going on trips, especially to Europe. I have a reservation at a hotel on the Amalfi coast for June of 2021, so let's all hope that after a terrible year like 2020 that 2021 will be better!!!

Posted by
4209 posts

Thank you for your service.
I can't wait to line up for mine, though it will be months for me. I just want to visit family, but I definitely look forward to traveling!

Posted by
6428 posts

Congrats, Donald, and thanks for the work you do. One of the rewards for all your labor and risk may be the chance to travel sooner than most Americans, and you deserve it. I suggest getting into travel as soon as you can, before the rest of us fill up the seats, hotels, tables, and museums. Maybe you'll have a chance to do something before that Amalfi trip!

Posted by
3776 posts

Yeah. Great news. I keep reading about different groups (A, B, C etc) and fear I will fall in letter Q or something like that. I am not quite old enough, live at home have no medical issues, am retired so no rush for work reasons. I also have been reading that approximately half the people in the US won’t take it. I’m hoping that with so many refusing it will push me up the letter groups. I have a feeling that after the first few groups get the vaccine and there aren’t any adverse reactions, people will change their minds. Anyway, I, and my husband, are ready as soon as we get an opportunity to take it.

Posted by
9460 posts

So glad that you got your first injection, Donald. Thank you for all the work you have been doing.

Posted by
3938 posts

Wow Donald, that’s exciting news and thank you for being on the front line all these months. Take care!

Posted by
96 posts

I am so glad you were able to get your vaccine! I breathe a big sigh of relief for you and all the essential workers who have done so much for us! I live in a neighborhood a few blocks from a hospital and so many of my neighbors are in the front lines.

I am also booked on the Amalfi Coast in June. Hopefully I'll get my vaccination by then, although I am not on any priority list. And hopefully Italy will far enough along in their recovery to be open to Americans by then. I booked the Villa Maria Luigia in Amalfi.

I agree, I can see the light at the end of the tunnel and it looks fabulous!

Posted by
2742 posts

I’m with Barb I’m in some group and so far down the list it’s not even funny. Until about a year ago I worked for a hospital where I would’ve been higher on the list but I’ll get it when I get it. I do think that a lot of idiots who don’t believe that they need to wear a mask also don’t believe they need to get vaccinated so that will move me up the list.

Posted by
371 posts

It is still a tunnel for everyone, even early vaccine people. You can dream of traveling, but I wouldn’t put any$$$ on future travel.

Posted by
973 posts

Congratulations Donald, you and your colleagues deserve this. I’m in the same boat as Barbara and Carol. I’m 61, retired, live at home, no terrible health issues. But I’m so happy to see the pics of people getting vaccinated. It helps knowing it’s here, to get through the boring, long cold winter. My hopes are for late April.

Posted by
6264 posts

Estimated Prophet, my niece and her husband just moved from there, so maybe only 384,998 people ahead of you!

Donald, thanks for the post, and for the work you do. If Oklahoma sticks to its posited schedule (not very likely), my husband and my dad and I should be getting ours in January. Stan and I are hoping to travel to Italy in September, but no reservations yet. I'm waiting to see what Rick does with his tours; I have two different itineraries in mind, depending on whether or not we're on one of his tours.

Posted by
3776 posts

Yes, thank you Donald for your work on the front line. My daughter and niece are both nurses on Long Island and didn’t say when they would get it. My son-in-law is a fireman in Queens, NY and hasn’t been told anything yet. If you can, keep us up-to-date about how you feel and the second dose.

Posted by
1362 posts

Nice. Our vaccine is due in our hospital NLT Christmas. So that following Monday we start loading up the staff & critical inpatients. Hoping to get to the Christmas Markets in Europe this time next year. Fingers, toes & eyes crossed.

Posted by
17628 posts

It is still a tunnel for everyone, even early vaccine people. You can
dream of traveling, but I wouldn’t put any$$$ on future travel.

Why not? There are places here and abroad open and running close enough to normal to visit today. I am betting on very, very near normal in the late spring.

Posted by
15560 posts

Donald, I am so happy for you and so thankful for the work you are doing. I just booked by first dose this morning (for next Wednesday) and, knowing my own excitement, cannot imagine how much more is yours.

Here's hoping every one of us will be able to get the vaccinations soon.

Posted by
610 posts

Congratulations! I am in a nurse in the ICU and I get to have my first dose on Wednesday. I'm so excited! This has been by far the most difficult and saddest year of my career. I am so hopeful this will help put an end to some of the suffering I have been witness to. Best Christmas gift ever!

Posted by
3776 posts

My daughter just got a text from her hospital that she could get it today but she is on vacation this week. She’ll let me know what happens when she returns on Monday. She has two small children and the babysitter wasn’t available.

Posted by
2742 posts

Congratulations! I worked for years in healthcare administration and still work on the fringes. I know this year has been incredibly stressful for anyone in healthcare. I know that at least knowing you are protected will make things easier!

Posted by
658 posts

Donald and Tamara, thank you SO MUCH for being out there on the front line. I cannot even begin to imagine the toll that it's taken on you!

My husband and I are in the "old people" group, so we have some idea of when we might be eligible for our vaccine. We have rescheduled all of our previously cancelled reservations for Iceland in September 2021, and are feeling optimistic for what 2021 will bring.

Posted by
185 posts

Woohoo! I’m a nurse and get my first vaccine injection tomorrow! I’m here hoping, right along with you, that I can travel somewhere in the not too distant future.

Posted by
739 posts

Much of the staff at the VA hospital my dad goes to have already gotten the vaccine

Posted by
3776 posts

The more people that get it the better. Unfortunately, I know many people who are smarter than all the scientists and will not be getting the vaccine. Helps us move up the line.

Posted by
2742 posts

I just want my 83 year old mother to get it. She’s in 1B in GA which is high but I have no idea when they will get to her group

Posted by
610 posts

Just reporting back in - I got my first dose yesterday! My arm is sore and I felt a little more fatigue than normal, but both of those things are already improving. So far, not much different than any other vaccine I've gotten. Hoping as the first groups get it and do ok, the public will become more interested. It was a great Christmas gift for this tired nurse!

Posted by
6264 posts

Well, I've been moved down a bit, but that's okay. The last I heard, they've changed the age range here in Oklahoma for the first group of "elderly," so while my dad and my husband will get it fairly soon (we hope,) I'll have to wait a bit longer. My husband is only 2 1/2 years older than I, but he makes the cutoff and I don't. And they moved teachers up into our general category; that's fine with me, too.

Posted by
739 posts

I am pretty far down the list but my dad’s doctor is trying to get an exception for me as I live with and am the sole care taker of my father and he is high on the list. As he is almost 90 and has a chronic illness. My dads medical support team is concerned that I could catch it and bring it to him and are not completely convinced the vaccine will completely protect my father as his immune system is a joke.

But right now this is ALL in flux as they try to figure out if he should get the vaccine in his condition or not...

Still for me my traveling days are on hold as I take care of dad due to needing to be here for him and the cut back in work to take care of him. So it is not that big a deal to me from that point of view.

Posted by
739 posts

Remember
A pessimist sees a dark tunnel,
An optimist sees a light at the end of the tunnel
But the train engineer sees two idiots standing on the track...

Posted by
3776 posts

My daughter returned to work this past Monday. She is a nurse at Memorial Sloan Kettering on Long Island. To be vaccinated she would have to go into the city to the main hospital which would entail going on the Long Island Railroad then a subway ride. She is not comfortable doing that, plus she would have to go on her day off. She will wait to take the vaccine when they have it at the LI office. But, I do know quite a few others who took it and all are fine. The fire dept will start on the 29 vaccinating.

Posted by
2942 posts

The question is how far to the end of the tunnel? August 2021? 2022? I like to think of myself as pragmatic, and that sense tells me booking travel for 2021 is premature at the moment. What's the rush?

My 84-year-old parents in Wake Forest, NC said there is no certainty as to when they will get the vaccine. Maybe March.

Smart people that look at the science, not listen to the politicians, will get the vaccine.

Posted by
26829 posts

In a Sunday, Dec 27, interview with CNN, Dr. Fauci was asked about when he thinks we might reach herd immunity, which he now thinks may require a vaccination rate between 70% and 85%. He acknowledged that this is an estimate, based on what we know about the measles, which is more virulent and requires around 90% to prevent outbreaks. Fauci began to address the timing question at about 3:15 of the video linked below.

Dr. Fauci explains why his herd immunity estimate has shifted (cnn.com)

I’ve attempted to document the basic points he made; some words I considered extraneous (YMMV) have been omitted here for the sake of brevity, and I’ve added some punctuation to improve readability.

Fauci: “If you look at the logistics of it, right now we’re going through the priority groups: We started with frontline health people—people taking care of patients, then you get to people who have underlying conditions, essential people in society, and then you go down the line. Once you get there, what I call “open season”, namely when anybody who’s anybody—you don’t have to be a priority person--should get vaccinated--I think we’re gonna get there probably end of March, beginning of April. So if we start vaccinating the general population in April, from a pure logistics standpoint, it’s probably gonna take several months to get those people vaccinated that would get us to the 70 to 85% group. I think that’s gonna probably be by the middle to the end of the summer, so that I hope—I hope—that by the time we get to the fall we will reach that critical percentage of people that we can really start thinking about a return to some form of normality.”

My comment: That schedule (particularly the April part) feels aggressive to me, based on news articles about the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine delivery schedules and the number of people reported to be in the priority groups, but I believe it is consistent with what Fauci has been saying for a few months. It has finally occurred to me that he is assuming additional vaccines are going to be approved relatively soon and delivered in quantity beginning no later than Quarter 2. I haven't seen any month-by-month delivery projections for AstraZeneca and J&J--which I presume he has, so I guess that schedule may be reasonable.

Posted by
759 posts

The last I read was that J & J were expecting to submit for approval in early Feb- thus a rollout by the end of Feb. Approvals are quick but still take several weeks. Unknown if their final testing will be delayed by the new variant issues. Presumption is not at this point in order to get a “mainstream” vaccine out ASAP . The variant issues may or may not be a big deal if the “mainstream” vaccines remain effective against them. This is simply one of the great unknowns and time will tell.

Posted by
17628 posts

The End of the Tunnel might be easier to predict if someone were to define what that means?

Okay, I will elaborate. Apparently, many people have different expectations of that light.

Is the light the eradication of COVID? Or is it reaching a point where we can move from hiding inside to dancing in the rain? Or someplace between the two? Four months ago, people might have said the light was the creation of a vaccine. But then with that done, we moved the light further out.

One thing that COVID has taught me is that predictions on health issues is about as predictable as weather forecasts. Except while it rains when it should not, in this case there is sunshine where it wasn’t believed possible.

We have gone from predictions of 3 million dead this year to less than 400,000. Predictions of 36 months to develop a vaccine to 7 months.

Predictions of a 5% mortality rate to something much, much smaller.

Predictions that normal life activity like eating out and the gym can’t continue without geometrically increase the contracting rate, to what some evidence suggests “might” not be true; time and cooler heads will come to the truth on this in time.

Prediction, masks don't work. New prediction, they do. I hope that is true as it give me one thing that I can personally control to make things safer.

Predictions that the vaccine roll out will be a cluster-you-know-what or impossible because of the sheer magnitude, to what appears so far to be reasonably done.

Prediction, it will take 90% of us being vaccinated to reach heard immunity. New prediction, maybe its 70 percent.

Predictions that there will not be enough refrigeration to a reality that might be quite the opposite (thanks to some forward thinking). Again, time will tell.

First a prediction of 2 years to get the vaccinations done, now we have a prediction of a year to have enough vaccinated to do any good. If history repeats itself, then that period of time might be less.

The next prediction is that this sort of thing is increasing in frequency. So, we have maybe 3 years before we get hit again with a new one. First, I have trust that every country will reevaluate their biological experiments and how they control the safety experimental labs. And hopefully no matter what country it springs from that country will have learned from this and be more forthcoming with information to help the rest of the world prepare. Finally, we have to ask ourselves, if the prediction is correct and this becomes a reoccurring phenomenon can we endure shutting down the world for a year every three or four years?

I am an advocate of preparing for the worse. So, the predictions provided a benchmark for the worse. Without that incentive, maybe we would not have a vaccine now. But I am also an advocate of maintaining hope and positive thoughts and dealing with reality as that reality becomes evident. Especially when reality is a blessing. The reality of the vaccine existing is a blessing and all those that made it happen deserve our appreciation and respect.

My light at the end of my tunnel is when all the high risk 1A, 1B and 1C have their first and second dose. The rest of us, statistically, will live and essential personnel will be on the front lines as opposed to home sick in bed. Then life can go back to go back to a functional state. Maybe not the original state, but functional. That is my light.

Perfection is a goal, but still impossible. To blame anyone in this whole horrible situation for not achieving perfection requires that one look at their own life first. The efforts and intent of everyone involved to date have been good and more than proper.

Posted by
17628 posts

My prediction? I have no predictions. They are worth what you paid for them. I have hope and trust in the people who have guided us so far. I would have like to have seen the US spared more. I think we made basic mistakes. I think we will learn from them. But in general, given the unique circumstances in the US, as every country has unique circumstances, we have done no better and no worse than the world as a whole. Maybe next time we will move 100% of our resources immediately to the high-risk groups, then let the rest fend for themselves, get sick, feel like crap and recover. I hope so. In this event it could have reduced the deaths by 50%. How to get 50 governors to work together that way is the big challenge and maybe it needs to become the next big public health discussion.

So, I am planning on returning to a functional life in late Spring. Might happen, might not. But I remain optimistic.

Others may have a different tunnel. And thats fair and reasonable. And their opinion certainly deserves consideration and respect. End result is we are all in this together and we will all fare better if we express understanding and respect of each person's opinions and values. But I think there is always room for positive thought. Till then: masks and six feet please. If not for yourself, then out of consideration of those who see life differently than you do.

Posted by
4255 posts

I"m so glad our hero health care workers are getting it now. However, a pulmonologist in our state said that although there is a light at the end of the tunnel, right now he just sees the locomotive speeding toward us.

Posted by
17628 posts

Lets hope he's wrong and lets pull together to make him wrong. Of course, when the time comes there is a great chance that the term will be redefined to fulfill the prediction. When a public official makes such a statement, he should be made to define it. Otherwise its meaningless rhetoric that does nothing to bolster confidence in our public officials.

Posted by
1473 posts

I am getting my first jab on Wednesday. I am very happy for that. I am hopeful that the vaccine remains protective and that everyone that wants a vaccine will have access soon.

Posted by
2942 posts

vandabrud, I envy you.

For me, part of the light at the end of the tunnel is relative normalcy. Planning and looking forward to a summer vacation helps get me through the gray and cold winters around here. As much as I'd like to pull the trigger for this summer my more prudent side says wait until 2022. My window for international travel is late May through early August, and that seems just a bit tight at the moment.

Posted by
4255 posts

James E, he wasn't a public health official. He was a pulmonologist in private practice and 3 of his partners and their nurse practitioner currently have Covid. He is being run ragged trying to see all their patients, plus monitor the many people at home who are very sick but there's no room for them in the hospital.

Posted by
26829 posts

Unfortunately, I don't think anyone should expect the situation to get noticeably better in the near term. We can't get that many people vaccinated in the first two months, there are many contagious people out there spreading the virus, we're all inside, and we have the effects of Christmas (and New Year's) gatherings to look forward to. Getting some millions of people vaccinated should reduce the escalation in the numbers to some degree, which is better than what would happen if no one was getting vaccinated, but it's going to take time.

Posted by
17628 posts

Cala, understood. I have a daughter and two aunts that have been nurses in covid units these past 7 months. Two of them and their spouses have contracted it. I've heard and seen how hard they have worked. I also have a relative 68 years old in bankruptcy because of covid. Difficult times for many. But I can think of a lot of groups of people over the course of history that have had it worse, so despite the doom and gloom I feel blessed.

BigMikeWestByGodVirginia, I understand. Can't say that I think you are wrong. Just trying to stay positive

Acraven, Your comments may very well be accurate. I have no idea. But I am assuming your tunnel is universal immunity (or something close to). My tunnel is functional normalcy (or something close to). Since I always rag on people not defining their terms: this would be when I go to the gym after a day in the office, then get a drink at the corner wine bar before my date at that nice restaurant down the street; and when, as a result of my actions and others, more than 50% of the people who have lost their jobs due to covid lockdowns are back to work. Oh yes, and board a flight the next morning to Budapest. And it would also include hospitals being able to handle the patient load and nurses and staff getting some well-deserved vacations. Will universal immunity be required for that to occur? Maybe. Or maybe the numbers will drop to September (my last trip overseas) levels thanks to vaccines and who knows what else, and the lockdown protests we saw in the US and in Europe will rise up again in the Spring and people and governments will have a shift in attitude. Again, I have my suspicions, but I make no predictions. Only time will tell and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Posted by
26829 posts

No, James, the end of my tunnel is:

  • I'm vaccinated.

  • Things are enough better here and at my destinations that public health folks say it's OK for non-EU foreigners to visit and be out and about with care. (I don't mind wearing a mask indoors; I can't do it 100% of the time outdoors, nearly every day for up to 4-1/2 months. I travel during the hot months.) I imagine such a welcome will depend on some combination of a lot of folks vaccinated, others having immunity after having been ill and recovered, and a much lower infection rate than we see today. I'm certain the authorities in places I want to go will not encourage tourists if their hospitals are in bad shape, so I'm not thinking about that at all.

  • Most museums are open.

  • Americans (or at least vaccinated Americans) are welcome as tourists at my destinations.

My destinations are rather flexible but weather-dependent. It will help me not at all if Scandinavia opens up in September.

Posted by
17628 posts

Thank you for the response.

You might be surprised to hear that I think your tunnel is very logical and your desire to be in Scandinavia by September is also not far fetched. For me the vaccine may or may not be a deal breaker, but I will have to see what the situation is like when the other conditions are met. I am 1b in Texas which I think is a bit silly so I haven't decided if I will take advantage of the silliness or wait to let someone more needy have my vial.

You will note that I said, when things were more like September of this year. In September the EU was closed, but there were a number of countries that met the rest of your requirements; except for the vaccine. September was my last European trip and it was an excellent trip. So when they get back to that situation I will be serious about looking at the options. Well, actually, I am planning my May trip to the Balkans. I have a voucher for Turkish Air and none of the hotels have non-refundable bookings so, why not. Once I have it worked out and written down I can always start slipping it a week at a time until the time is right.

I think the last to meet your (and in general also mine) requirements will be the EU, but that's just a guess; and who knows requirements may fracture much as they did this year between Hungary and the EU and Croatia and the EU. It will be interesting to follow.

I guess what threw me off was your comment about nothing changing in the near future. Depends on what near future means. 3 mo., 6 mo., a year?? I suspect I will be someplace in May and who knows, we may have unlimited opportunities by September.

Again, no predictions, just optimism.

Posted by
26829 posts

By "near future" I meant "this winter"--say between now and sometime in March. I just don't see the numbers improving massively between now and early March (and probably not by late March, either). It's winter, which has implications for transmission of a disease with respiratory spread, and I fear the vaccination campaign won't initially keep up with the availability of doses. Also, there's a delay of 4 to 6 weeks after the first vaccination before a person reaches the vaunted 95% immunity, so only those who receive the first vaccination by the end of February will be closing in on full protection by the end of March. I believe some of the comments about where we will be at what point may be based on the first vaccination rather than the development of full immunity.

There have been suggestions (I haven't seen a comprehensive report) that the pace of vaccination in Europe will be slower than ours, which would affect potential visitors. I wasn't willing to travel last September (when US public health officials were urging people not to), so my line in the sand is different from yours, James. Alas. The reason I still feel optimistic is that I realized back in March that 2020 was a dead duck, and I've been cautious about looking at the published numbers of doses available and assuming they'll end up in people's arms right away, so things are sort of ticking along as I might have guessed. I'm surprised and thrilled at how early the first two vaccines were approved.

In other news, I had my second mask dream last night. Still no dream about getting vaccinated.

Posted by
17628 posts

Acraven, please sit down. You will need to be sitting when you read this. You and I agree about the short-term.

One thing we all overlook is perspective. A person locked down in LA or NYC is going to see the world differently than one having a relatively normal life in Dallas or Miami.

Masks are worth the nightmares for the community peace of mind ;-)

Posted by
26829 posts

What does "pull the trigger" mean? Can you be absolutely sure everything is truly refundable in cash?

Posted by
50 posts

For Iceland in July, it really is a matter of what "pull the trigger" means. If you're talking about researching and planning, or even making completely refundable reservations I don't see any issues with that. In fact, we have a tentative July trip planned as well, with hotels reservations that can be cancelled up to the last minute with no penalty. That's really the key, along with being able to stomach the uncertainty leading up to the travel date.

You'll just have to have approach it with the mindset that last minute changes or potential cancellations will be a real possibility- every reservation you make needs to have good refund policies. The plan for most places we'd visit appears to be vaccinations in place by late spring. So, in theory July is possible, but there are a lot of variables at play here and vaccine roll outs will vary by country. If I had to bet, I'd say you can pull it off, but July is as early as I'd even make tentative plans. Just depends on your threshold for uncertainty.

Posted by
26829 posts

Here's a December 28 article about Iceland's vaccination plans. They don't currently have delivery commitments of enough vaccine to cover the entire population, and "Chief Epidemiologist Þórólfur Guðnason has stated that herd immunity to COVID-19 may not be achieved in Iceland before the second half of next year." However, the country seems to be volunteering itself as a test-case for full-country vaccination with the Pfizer vaccine, noting that if it is allocated enough doses at one time, "it would be possible to vaccinate most of the country’s population within days." Pretty clever.

https://www.icelandreview.com/society/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-lands-in-iceland/

Posted by
11027 posts

Should I pull the trigger? Would you?

Depends where the gun is pointed

Posted by
17628 posts

For Iceland in July, it really is a matter of what "pull the trigger"
means. If you're talking about researching and planning, or even
making completely refundable reservations I don't see any issues with
that. In fact, we have a tentative July trip planned as well, with
hotels reservations that can be cancelled up to the last minute with
no penalty. That's really the key, along with being able to stomach
the uncertainty leading up to the travel date.

Ditto

Posted by
26829 posts

This has nothing to do with the recent questions (Iceland, etc.).

When considering travel to--let's call them "fringe" countries--it's important to be aware that official information about health conditions may have been massaged. The Russians have just acknowledged grotesque underreporting of COVID-19 deaths. The new figures aren't yet reflected on the Worldometers website many of us use, but the country now admits its death toll to date is not 55,000 but rather 186,000.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-29/russia-admits-to-worlds-third-worst-coronavirus-death-toll/13018842

Edited to add:

I'm pleased to see some substantial increases in the number of vaccinations reported on a state-by-state basis on the Washington Post dashboard. Three rather low-population states (West Virginia and the Dakotas) have used at least 3/4 of the doses they've received so far, and quite a few other states are over 50%. I don't consider that too bad, given the holidays. It's really not possible to know whether the states that appear to be seriously lagging are that far behind or are just slow to get their reporting in gear.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/covid-vaccine-states-distribution-doses/?itid=hp_pandemic-guide-box-1208

Posted by
17628 posts

All told I have 6 healthcare 1a friends and relatives in cities and distant rural areas. They all got their first dose before or the day after Christmas. Yes Agnes, a small sampling, but encouraging that the numbers may take a few days to show up.. And, that the states are burning through the vaccine supply so fast might be a good indication that at least that part of the infrastructure is functioning well.

Optimistically Yours

James E

Posted by
2942 posts

Thanks, casper, acraven, joe, and james. "Pull the trigger" means to pay for the trip. Planning is definitely not pulling the trigger.

My head says to pump the brakes for now. I have to remember to take my own advice these countries will still be there in 2022.

Posted by
15560 posts

There is light streaming into my tunnel. I wish it were the same for the rest of you . . . hope it will be, sooner than later.

On Sunday I had a farewell outdoor lunch with friends in Jerusalem and left them just an hour before our 3rd lockdown began - it sucks for people who are losing badly needed income but it does keep the infection rate to levels that hospitals can cope with. Most of my over-60 friends (and that's most of my friends :-) have either had their first Pfizer shot or have appts for them in the next two weeks. Since vaccinations began here about 10 days ago, approx 5% of the population has received the first dose and the daily numbers are increasing. Because medical staff aren't overly taxed, there is sufficient staff to administer the vacs. Sadly the 2 sectors most resistant to prevention measures (like mass gathering, lack of masks) are also eschewing vacs.

I'll feel that I'm out of the tunnel in about another 6-8 weeks, when most of my friends and I are at that 95% immunity level (roughly 5 weeks from first shot) and can meet again in person, maskless and in groups.

My big travel plan for 2021 is the US trip that I cancelled this year. I worry that it will be severely curtailed or, heaven forfend, undoable if the covid situation doesn't improve quite a bit. Israel is (so far, fingers crossed) doing a very good job, both keeping the infection rate at a manageable level and getting vacs done. The first with pretty stringent mandates, the second thanks to a very good national health care system and obtaining sufficient vaccine. It seems to me that many European countries and Canada have similar, maybe better, national health infrastructure and will be able to vaccinate large enough swaths of their countries in the near future. Please correct me if I have a skewed understanding - what I know is mostly from CNN . . . there's no infrastructure for vacs in the U.S. for most people. They will have to rely on their local pharmacies to get their shots. How in heck are local pharmacies going to keep track of everyone to make sure they return for the 2nd dose - and that's just for those folks who are proactive in seeking out the vacs. Sheesh. It sounds like a nightmare.

Posted by
17628 posts

Chani, thanks for the concern. Sound like you guys will average 8 million jabs a month. Here if all goes well, maybe 25 to 50 million a month. But I wish we could do better.

As for getting them to come for jab two, its not law here. Sooooooo.....

Posted by
7049 posts

Please correct me if I have a skewed understanding - what I know is
mostly from CNN . . . there's no infrastructure for vacs in the U.S.
for most people. They will have to rely on their local pharmacies to
get their shots. How in heck are local pharmacies going to keep track
of everyone to make sure they return for the 2nd dose - and that's
just for those folks who are proactive in seeking out the vacs.
Sheesh. It sounds like a nightmare.

There is an infrastructure, just not a centralized one, like other countries (plus public health is generally a sub-state level function - sadly, even during a pandemic). The reason they are using CVS, Walgreens, etc. for the general population (not in hospital or long-term care settings) is by design. Somewhere around 80% of the population lives within 5 miles of a local CVS, Walgreens, etc. so they are close and convenient for the majority of the population. That's a good thing. People are already used to getting their flu shots in those settings, and these places are not like mom-and-pop standalone pharmacies....they are retailers with pretty sophisticated data analytics infrastructure and with pharmacy back-ends. They know every little thing you purchased at their stores if you use their loyalty cards and can print you customized coupons based on your shopping history. All you'd need to make the 2-step jab process simpler is scheduling software with which they can pre-schedule your second dose for a specific date...and lots of email and text alerts. Everything is automated these days. My Mom gets a gazillion emails and texts to pick up her medications from CVS, so I don't see the vaccine being any different.

My insurer is already sending me info, albeit very slowly, about the future vaccination efforts. However, I do think they need to hire thousands of people very quickly to do the administering because there is no way the existing labor force at your local CVS, etc. is enough to handle this kind of task (the Wall Street Journal said as much in a recent article). And I know that the CDC is standing up a tracking system but I am not confident about interoperability with local systems to feed into it smoothly. It's going to be a real challenge collecting the data if interoperability is an issue - we struggle with that all the time because there are so many decentralized systems that don't talk to each other. We don't even have functioning, interoperable EHRs (electronic health records) or single identification numbers for every patient.

PS. I was surprised to read this about France: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-vaccine/slow-french-start-to-covid-19-vaccinations-draws-critics-idUSKBN2941BX?il=0 That's a good reminder to not treat Europe as one unified mass that presumably has a superior infrastructure. Hesitancy and lack of urgency can creep in, even in Europe.

Posted by
1473 posts

I received my first Moderna vaccine today via my hospital employer. I was observed for 30 minutes afterward due to my significant allergies to beta lactam antibiotics. Jab was painless and no ill affects so far.

The county health department where I live has a website where you can register for a vaccine. Right now it is only for healthcare workers, first responders, institutional housing workers, teachers and persons with risk factors. I am hoping they will have a good system in place to alert candidates as to when and where they can receive their vaccine. The sooner these folks are vaccinated, the sooner my husband and sons can be vaccinated.

I do have a question about Chani's comment regarding getting together in groups without masks. Chani, will you do that after just your group is vaccinated or will you wait until a significant portion of the population is vaccinated?

Posted by
7049 posts

Hard to believe the current administration didn't think to get the consent issue in congregate settings squared away weeks before the actual rollout. If this relatively straightforward piece is already off track, what does that say about the rest of the effort?
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/532031-nursing-homes-hit-early-roadblocks-in-massive-vaccine-campaign

I don't see a short tunnel, although it's easy to be very hopeful due to vaccines being authorized for emergency use (we still don't know everything about the vaccines, so there are lots of caveats). I think this will be a slog. Even if you get the vaccine early, you still have to wait for the rest of the population to catch up.

Posted by
17628 posts

From your link:

Mike Dark, a staff attorney with California Advocates for Nursing Home Reform, said consent has never really been an issue in the past, but the politicization of virtually every facet of the COVID-19 pandemic has changed that.

Posted by
8375 posts

I just went through my shingles vaccination - a two shot process one month apart - with my local pharmacy. They sent me email and phone notifications to remind me of the second shot. So a tracking and notification system is not a leap. Getting cooperation is the hard part. The management issues at the point of distribution (such as consent issues), are and should be planned and managed at the state and local level, and yes the politics got in the way.

One thing that is not often brought up, is that the vaccines in play were not tested or approved for children, so there is a whole chunk of the population <16 that won't be covered. No, they are not immune and yes they can be carriers.

I think the vaccination rates won't be the decision points for opening up leisure travel, it will be an actual reduction in positive test and hospitalization rates. Which could occur naturally for all we know, or get worse.

Posted by
6264 posts

I just found out today from our local NPR affiliate that Oklahoma is gearing up for "phase two" immunizations. That will include us - me and my husband, as well as my 92-year old father. We're supposed to be getting the injections early in January. Which is good, since Oklahoma now leads the nation in new infections. :-(

The plan is for local schools and community centers to be used to administer the vaccine. I don't know if it'll be through Walgreen's and CVS or not. We (my family) usually go to a local mom-and-pop pharmacy. Actually, it's a "niece-and-nephew" pharmacy - my niece and her husband own and run it, and it's just up the block from where I live. And the high school is just across the street from there, so I'm hopeful that's where the shots will be given.

Posted by
15560 posts

Agnes - will CVS (and others) contact the people who are in their data bases and eligible for shots to schedule appts? Do they have statewide or regional data bases? I keep thinking of the Black woman from Chicago I saw on CNN who said there wasn't a drugstore anywhere near her, certainly not walking distance and not even easy by bus - and she lives in a well-populated (is there any other) part of the city, just blocks from where I grew up, so that hit home with me. Then I think of a place like Los Angeles and wonder if poorer neighborhoods may be in similar situations. And who's going to pay for all the extra costs of those pharmacies? Do they have the supercold storage facilities?

Vandabrud - will you do that after just your group is vaccinated or will you wait until a significant portion of the population is vaccinated? Oh, as soon as we get our "green passports" - about 2 weeks after the 2nd shot, so that's only about 5-6 weeks away now for many of us.

Posted by
7049 posts

@Chani - The below link has info to the CDC reporting framework (I have not read it all yet, but it's clear that any entity administering the vaccine will have to report "up" to the CDC. The CDC will also have a separate system for tracking any adverse reactions to the vaccine over time (self-reported data, etc).
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/reporting/overview/index.html

With regard to who will pay any (and every) cost of the vaccination effort, the answer is all US taxpayers (that includes future taxpayers, since we have plenty of deficit-spending going on - vaccine or otherwise). The Federal government has contracted directly with CVS, Walgreens, etc. but those are private parties and they are not going to provide any services for free. I believe those pharmacies were selected because they can accommodate the special needs and specs of the vaccines that require the cold storage.

Regarding accessibility, if 80% are the low-hanging fruit (within short distance of designated pharmacies), then plans will still need to be made for ensuring the other 20% gets access. This may mean standing up facilities in other settings than the freestanding CVS type settings (not dissimilar to standing up testing sites) in areas where there is little infrastructure. The poor in urban areas like LA and Chicago will be relatively easy to reach in comparison to part of the country which are poor AND rural (Mississippi, Alabama, etc). Although in urban settings, the bus and transit services in very dense cities have been cut back tremendously and will likely need to play a role in getting poor people transported to where they can access the vaccine - so they may need to be resuscitated back to life. Those kind of "nuts and bolts" details have not been articulated yet, at least publicly.

As far as notification, I think it will be an "all hands on deck, everything but the kitchen sink" approach that will involve Medicare, Medicaid, commercial insurers, pharmacies, community and social welfare agencies, traditional and social media (facebook, Google), churches, county/local public health agencies etc. Ideally, it would be as easy as the "get-out-the-vote" effort this year where anyone could just Google "where is my nearest vaccine center?" and then be able to make an appointment online or to get further information. It's not going to be easy, it's a major challenge, especially to get to the hardest-to-reach folks. As of now, we have no concrete information and there has not been a national PR or PSA (public service announcement) campaign to give people a roadmap as to "what's next", etc. Right now, they are struggling to deal with vaccinating the easiest part of the population (in hospitals and nursing homes) and are still behind.

Posted by
26829 posts

This article, about vaccination plans in France, is an example of the confusing information showing up now--the sort of thing that frustrates the potential traveler in me:

https://www.thelocal.fr/20201230/explained-how-france-plans-its-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

These two quote are perplexing [emphasis mine]:

  • "Phase 3, which encompasses most of the general population who don't fall into high risk groups, is scheduled for April."

  • "Phase 3 - from late spring, this will be opened up to the rest of the population (around 52 million people). This will begin with people aged 50 plus and key workers including teachers and retail staff before moving to people in precarious living situations such as the homeless, people who live in a communal setting and then the rest of the population."

To me, April is not "late spring".

Posted by
2942 posts

Spring officially begins with the equinox on March 21/22. Summer officially begins June 21/22 with the solstice.

So, technically late Spring would be during May. Pragmatically May could be considered late Spring in Europe as the flora is still blooming during that time.

Thank you, and you're welcome.

edit: what if the light is an oncoming train?!!

Posted by
32510 posts

what if the light is an oncoming train?

then you use the niches or refuges depending on the infrastructure. Anybody with PTS can tell you that ...

Posted by
26829 posts

This is an interesting article about the UK pivot to maximize first doses by extending the period between the first and second vaccinations. This is being considered for the US as well (per Dr. Fauci's comments on the Today Show--though it sounds as if he is not a proponent of the change).

From my reading, the medical folks don’t seem to be on the same page about the underlying facts.

UK chief medical officers defend delay between Covid-19 vaccine doses - CNN

Here are some key quotes [emphasis mine]:

"Meanwhile, Pfizer said it did not have data to demonstrate that just a single dose of its vaccine would provide protection against the disease after more than 21 days." [The direct quote from Pfizer's December 31 statement appears later in the article: "There are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days."]

"But the chief medical officers for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland defended the move...saying it was based on the 'balance of risks and benefits,' and that the ‘great majority’ of initial protection came from the first jab."

"In its open letter, the Doctors' Association UK wrote: 'Protection provided by the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine is considerably lower at 52.4% compared to 95% if two doses given three weeks apart.' "

Posted by
561 posts

I might be overly naive and optimistic, but if its true that a strong majority of deaths are in a concentrated part of society,( the elderly, those with preexisiting conditions, and especially the elderly with preexisiting conditions,) then if the vast majority of them get the vaccine in the coming months, wouldn't we be looking at a plunging death rate regardless of whether the much less vulnerable have the vaccine. In other words, even long before countries hit, say a 50 or 70% total vaccinated rate, if the vast majority of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, aren't we then looking at a much much lower overall death rate and then governments from that point on might be ready to open up travel?

Posted by
17628 posts

rob in Cal, in a word, yes. 39% were in nursing homes (or similar). And only about 60,000 of deaths occured in people under the average age of retirement. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

Go figure ......

By the way, twisted logic puts me in vaccine category 1b. Texas has progressed to 1b and I can go get jabbed when I get home from my vacation. Should I? Its not like there isn't someone else in line who will if I don't.

And I guess we could have taken care of the hospital issue here in Texas if all the 1b went to those areas and cultural groups where the problem is greatest.

Posted by
11027 posts

if the vast majority of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, aren't we then looking at a much much lower overall death rate and then governments from that point on might be ready to open up travel?

That is one component to be considered. The other is how full are the hospitals. The 'healthier' may have a higher survival rate, but what does it take to save them.

Posted by
17628 posts

Slackware, I'm with you. Everyone wear their masks, distance, and follow the state and federal rules and we will get through this. It's possible, I am in this amazing place right now where things are opening up I think in part due to excellent compliance .... and border restrictions.

Posted by
11027 posts

I am in this amazing place right now where things are opening up

James, care to ID the 'amazing place'?

Posted by
3941 posts

I, too, have been considering the vaccine since I am also group 1b in Texas. I am not at all reluctant to get it, but I would really like to know the recommended second dose will be available. And I would also like to feel that groups more at risk than me (hospital staff, nursing home residents, etc.) get theirs first if desired. I am not sure if any of that is knowable or not though. Then I also consider how long they say antibodies should last, if I want to travel (and am able) in the fall. 🤷🏻‍♀️

Posted by
344 posts

@ James.

I was a little worried when you said you were in an amazing place. Thought you may have breached the defences thrown up around the great south land and shaky isles. Then saw you qualified with “opening up”. That was close. No way are we opening up just yet.

I know you enjoy trout fishing. The south shaky isle and Tasmania have some rather exclusive trout fishing lodges. Introduced brown and rainbow varieties. Try a google search. May tickle your fancy or not. Try - A Thousand Lakes Lodge. Not so exclusive this one, let me stay one night. Perhaps 2022.

Keep on fishing. Ron

Posted by
17628 posts

I've been to Australia once. I was forced to go. It was New Year two years ago. We joined a party at the botanical gardens in Sydney to watch the fireworks. Turned out to be one of the best trips ever. Goes to show never hurts to broaden your horizons. I live in Texas. We never locked down by most standards and now life is about 75% normal. I was speaking of my current trip, I'm sitting several thousands of miles West of Texas. Not terribly far from you actually.

But thanks for the good words and suggestion. Might be just what I needed to hear to make a return trip a reality.

Happy New Year

Posted by
26829 posts

Updated vaccination stats from the CDC dashboard as of this morning, January 2:

Doses shipped: 13,071,925 (3.9% of population)
Vaccinations given: 4,225,756 (1.3% of population; 32.3% of shipped doses used)

The CDC also provides a breakdown of doses shipped for and vaccinations given as part of the Federal Pharmacy Partnership for Long-Term Care Program. That program is where the most serious lags are occurring, with only 12.8% of the shipped doses having been administered. By comparison, 36.3% of the doses shipped for use in hospitals, etc., have been used.

The overall dose-usage figure has been improving gradually.

The Washington Post tracker has updated state-by-state numbers. That webpage may be behind a pay wall.

Posted by
6264 posts

Oklahoma is now in Phase 2, and has started giving the vaccine to folks 65 and over, teachers and other school employees, and those health care workers who weren't vaccinated in Phase 1.

I was able to get my first dose of Moderna yesterday, when I accompanied my 92-year old father to get his. (I'm over 70, so I would have qualified on my own, as well.) The rollout here varies from county to county, and depends on how many doses of vaccine are granted to each county's health department. Our county is planning one vaccination day each week. I have to call tomorrow morning to get my husband signed up for the next available day; they only know a few days ahead of time how many doses will be available.

The vaccination session yesterday went well; the staff of our county health department were beaming as the session ended. They were afraid there would be some unpleasantness, for some reason. The only problem was getting all 50 people who were given the same reservation time to socially distance. In the cold. And rain. Huddling was the order of the day, but the folks running the event found an indoor space big enough for us to wait our turns.

Posted by
7595 posts

Today, I made appointments for my wife and self (both over 65) to receive our COVID-19 vaccines at our local Georgia Public Heath Department (appointments are Monday the 11th of Jan.). Looking forward to getting this milestone behind us.

Posted by
739 posts

They are starting to give the vaccine to 65+ in Michigan as well.

Posted by
26829 posts

In Washington DC it's possible over-65s will be able to register next week for vaccination appointments, but I don't know when those time slots will begin. I don't think we'll even know for sure that registration will be possible until we see the language on the website change, because they are reacting to the level of interest by the medical folks in the top-priority group. There wasn't exactly a rush to sign up last week, but that was the peak holiday week, and medical personnel are just a bit busy at the moment, dealing with sick folks. We definitely haven't received enough doses for all the medical people who need to be vaccinated, despite the help of Maryland and Virginia in that regard, so I wasn't expecting to have any shot at vaccination so early.

Posted by
2942 posts

I'm feeling more confident about mid-to-late summer travel. West Virginia has done a surprisingly great job rolling out the vaccines, and teachers will start getting their shots next week, with the second one coming by early February. Yay!

I'm genuinely happy to hear so many of you approaching the dates for your vaccines.

Posted by
11027 posts

It seems our leaders are still searching for the tunnel.

2/3 of what has been shipped here is in storage and 'maybe' by the the end of the month those 70+ will start getting shots.

Doctors who are in small clinics are trying to get the shots ( for themselves) and the Health Dept has no answers about when that might happen.

S ituation
N ormal
A ll
F ouled
U p

Good to see things are working in some places

Posted by
17628 posts

Seriously? My impression of what is going on here is that as fast as it arrives it goes in an arm. All my 1A friends have gotten theirs and several already the second dose. I know a handful of 1B people who have gotten theirs too. Here its just 1A and 1B then it goes fully public. I am 1B by technicality (bum ticker) but I think I will wait till more of the truly needy get their dose.

I heard on the new this morning that there is fear that in NYC the vaccine will go bad sitting on the shelf as they are saying just healthcare workers and those over 75 are eligible. Thant cant possibly be true.

Posted by
26829 posts

James, it is unfortunately not true that the vaccine is getting administered rapidly. It's best to look at actual data rather than extrapolating from a few anecdotes.

I think we all should have realized that with two holidays coming shortly after shipments began, things were going to run in fits and starts at the beginning even under the best of circumstances. It didn't help that no federal funds were provided to jumpstart the vaccination effort. Now we have a major uptick in infections, which must make it more difficult to corral people to give and receive the vaccinations. At this point just 2% of the US population has received the first shot.

As of today, the CDC reports 22.1 million doses distributed and 6.7 million doses utilized. That means less than 1/3 of the available vaccine has made it into people's arms. There is considerable variation in vaccine usage from state to state. The Washington Post is updating its state-by-state tracker daily, at least on weekdays, so it's easy to keep up with how things are progressing in ones home state. The most successful states so far in terms of percentage of utilization are West Virginia and South Dakota. They are lightly populated states, so their success doesn't do a lot for the national average.

You can go to that second link to see where Texas stands: just a smidgen above the national average, with 2.1% of the population having gotten vaccination #1 and 33.8% of the received doses having been administered. For a state large in both area and population, that's not bad; some of the other large states lag behind those stats. On the other hand, that can't be considered a rip-roaring success.

New York is doing somewhat better than Texas, so if vaccine is spoiling in New York, I imagine the same thing is happening in Texas. (Actually, I assume everyone is keeping the stuff in cold storage until they're ready use it.)

In fairness to all involved in the vaccination effort: Not all doses are shipped straight to the point of usage; they don't split boxes at the point of origin, so redistribution may be necessary once a shipment reaches the target state, I assume leading to a one-day delay (possibly longer in Alaska). That can cause some overstating of doses received to date. And everyone acknowledges there can be something of a lag (up to three days) in the reported vaccinations.

Posted by
17628 posts

I think we are talking apples and oranges. My impression here is that the vaccine on hand is finding its way into arms. Again, just my impression, but our issue seems to be supply,, not application..

The report i heard about NY suggested that they had a lot of supply but were having trouble using the vaccine on hand .... for some reason. Didn't say I believed it. Don't really know.

I had the opportunity to be an antedotal story, but still going to wait a while.

Posted by
26829 posts

James, did you not read the stats I cited or check the links? How can you say "the vaccine on hand is finding its way into arms" when only about 30% of the shipped doses have been administered?

The report you heard about NY seems accurate. But it applies equally to Texas and practically every other state to some degree.

Posted by
759 posts

The idea it is only a vaccine supply item is beyond -censored by author-.. There is a huge supply item (give them a break folks- we are talking hundreds of millions of doses, billions worldwide. That doesn’t happen overnight). There are equally, and in many circumstances, greater supply issues in shipment, properly trained medical personnel to handle injections (and the possible negative aka allergic reactions that can arise with a very very small number of people- but if it happens to them it ain’t a small issue).

You have states and cities buried in fighting the virus- medical staff stretched beyond thin. Now they need an army of medical personnel to handle the injections and those bodies just aren’t there. Parts of the country simply do not have the equipment needed to properly store and distribute vaccine at the extreme cold temperatures it needs to be kept at. Lots of good folks working damn hard but sadly lots of extremely naive folks thinking this is almost over or just a vaccine supply issue. The process is complicated but it will be conquered and solved. Just not on a 2 Day Prime schedule.

UPDATE: News report on the California high desert community of Apple Valley. Their main medical center has an ICU has 20 beds. They have 50 ICU patients. Non-Covid critical patients are being treated in the halls, they do not get a hospital room. Wait for an ICU bed is 7 days (need to outlive a current occupant). The National Guard has sent in a unit but they are still stretched beyond thin. That town needs Covid injections. Who gives them? What doctor do you pull out of that hospital to monitor the injections (in case of allergic reactions)? And yet one person on this forum continues to declare all is good and continues to travel with all his “preparation” excuses. Disgusting. Actually beyond disgusting.

Posted by
17628 posts

onefastbob, I sort of think things are going sort of "oaky" lets see how it goes once they get the bugs out.

Here we have done some large scale vaccinations. When they run out of 1A and 1B people they give the remaining supply to whom ever wants it. So apparently, in some cases, when it reaches the point of use, it is getting used.

Okay, I looked on our state website. We have received about 1.5million doses. We have administered about 650K to the estimated 1.9 million 1A and 1B now qualified to receive it. If what people say is true and 40% of the people dont want their shot, then we are getting close to doing all the 1A 1B folks I guess. The news says it because people dont know where to go. I think a lot of the missing folks may be part of our migrant population.....

Any chance they are holding back half the stuff so they can be certain to have stock for the second dose?

Wish it were better...... But interesting to see how it plays out.

Posted by
2942 posts

The Pfizer vaccine provides 50 percent immunity after the first shot, but doesn't kick in for a week. The second dose, 21 days later, provides 90 percent immunity one week later. That's what we are receiving here.

As Emma mentioned it is not clear whether one can spread the virus after immunity has been established. There is concern about those who will refuse vaccination. My doctor said he's travelling this summer and the resort he's staying at in Bermuda is fully booked.

Posted by
17628 posts

If you are concerned that you are in that group with high risk, I think it best you stay inside until COVID is eradicated. Or at least until you feel that going out is worth the implied risk.

Posted by
109 posts

Here in Colorado, we've moved to the first tier of Phase 1B (those ages 70+). Teachers are next, although there has been confusion in some counties and a small portion of teachers already have received their first shot. After that, I believe it's grocery store workers. My husband and I are slated for Phase 1C, so I'm hoping that things will be looking up for us by late spring.

We are talking about taking a road trip after vaccination, but we'll see how things go. Baby steps!

Posted by
8375 posts

Our county health department currently says that they expect to get to Phase 3 (general population) "by the end of summer or fall". So there's a long way to go, and a lot can happen in the interim.

Posted by
3874 posts

On the other hand, it appears Israel has been quite successful in their vaccination campaign. As of this week, around 1.59 million people in Israel, out of a population of 8.6 million, have received their first vaccine shot. With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu being the first person to be vaccinated in the country.

By contrast, the U.S. has given the first inoculation to 5.9 million people (with a population of around 331 million), the U.K. has vaccinated 1.3 million (of 66 million) and just 45,000 people in France have received their first shot (population: 67 million).

Perhaps there are some lessons Israel can teach us about the rollout of the vaccine?

You can read more in this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html

"Israel has a public health care system which requires everyone to belong to one of four health care maintenance organizations (or HMOs) that operate a bit like Britain’s National Health Service. Vaccine supplies were distributed to these HMOs who in turn have deployed them to their respective members."

Posted by
7049 posts

Perhaps there are some lessons Israel can teach us about the rollout
of the vaccine?

No, because the problems are structural - our decentralized and underfunded public health care system was and is unprepared for this hefty job (it's analogous to trying to quickly make our education system function like Finland). You can't fix structural problems while you're barely trying to keep your head above the water, and you don't have space or time to learn and readjust quickly. We'll continue to muddle through, make mistakes, waste supplies and time, and make the best of it. Comparing the US to Israel is apples to oranges. We can't even learn how to do airport security from Israel because we're not willing to employ certain tactics to do it effectively.

Posted by
3874 posts

No, because the problems are structural

So easy to just say no and move on, in the long term I'd say there are lessons to learn. I agree such a devolved public healthcare system as in the US has shown to be quite inadequate and inefficient when facing massive shocks to the system, as with this current pandemic.

Certainly there are lessons to learn from Israel (and others), but is there a willingness to learn, that is the real question here. But maybe I am getting ahead of myself here, all I wanted to do is bring up that there are success stories out there, in terms of the vaccine rollout, and that it may be prudent to take a look as to why.

Posted by
7049 posts

There are both successes and challenges in coordination even in a small country like Israel - and "haves" and "have nots".
https://www.ft.com/content/0e2f5918-d9af-4fdd-8a93-62093b4c6fd3
https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-races-ahead-with-covid-19-vaccines-while-palestinians-wait-11610049670

It's really hard to say which country overall has performed best. History is yet to be written on the inoculation effort, taking all variables into account, including speed and others.

Posted by
11027 posts

Perhaps there are some lessons Israel can teach us about the rollout
of the vaccine?

That it is easier to be a sovereign nation the size and population of New Jersey, than it is to be the size of the US ( in certain instances)

There are times when size matters, and 'economy of scale', has its limits

Posted by
17628 posts

Agnes, but history will remember Fauci and the French government for developing the vaccine so fast, and the US government for fouling up its distribution world wide.

Posted by
15560 posts

Agnes, I want to clarify what you seem to be implying with your links and from which I am making inferences because neither of the articles is available without a subscription.

Arabs living in the State of Israel are equally entitled to get vaccinated. Clinics in Arab neighborhoods, villages and cities are supplied with equivalent amounts of vaccine. The government and other authorities are waging a public information campaign to encourage them (along with one or 2 other reluctant sectors, notably the ultrareligious Jews) to get vaccinated.

Palestine is a separate political entity, responsible for its own population.

Note that neither the Times or the WSJ is known as unbiased with regard to Israel. I could give you a lot more insight into the situation, but it would veer into the realm of politics - as every facet of life does in this part of the world.

Posted by
7049 posts

I am not implying or suggesting anything other than there are two vaccination efforts in Israel and they don't have the same level of success so far. The Palestinian Authority is relying on a different type of vaccine from the WHO/ Covax Initiative, which does not appear is available for its population yet (no suggestion has been made by me about who is at fault for that). If one talks about Israel as a whole, it's worth mentioning both efforts. One is by all accounts succeeding so far, one is not - so the whole picture is nuanced. In light of the Oslo Accords, I don't know how much coordination during a pandemic like this is expected or if that's a pipe dream altogether.

Sorry for posting links to the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal (an overwhelming majority of the media I read is subscription-based, and I read both left- and right-leaning media, and business news like Bloomberg, etc). Anyone can parse facts from opinion in any article, and I trust they will do that. The author of the WSJ article is based in Tel Aviv so I assume she is reporting first-hand. Here is her bio: "Felicia Schwartz is The Wall Street Journal's Israel and Palestinian Territories correspondent, based in Tel Aviv. She previously covered foreign affairs and the U.S. State Department out of the Journal's bureau in Washington, D.C. She has also worked at CNN in New York and is a graduate of Dartmouth College."

Posted by
17628 posts

Chani, thanks for the information. We have similar issues here, for similar cultural reasons.

Tom_MN; thanks for the links. I don't really understand the point of the articles?

"Israel Races Ahead With Covid-19 Vaccines, While Palestinians Wait"
why not
"United States Races Ahead With Covid-19 Vaccines, While Hondurans Wait"

Also interesting
https://m.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/palestinians-accuse-israel-of-shirking-duty-to-supply-covid-19-vaccines-654946

Posted by
26829 posts

One reason why the US has been holding back a lot (50% ??) of the vaccine produced to date is concern about the possibility of quality-control failures. I was thinking more along the lines of production difficulties and supply-chain issues (both of which obviously are also possible), but a January 8 article about Biden's plan to push out vaccine more rapidly provided a bit of detail. It turns out that each batch of vaccine is required to be tested both before and after bottling. If a vial fails the QC test, the entire batch must be discarded. Obviously, that would happen at the end of the manufacturing process and affect the size of the next shipment. I'm sure no one would suggest that QC testing be eliminated.

Posted by
15560 posts

There are voices in Israel calling for helping the Palestinians get vaccines and administering them, not very loud right now since we have lots of other issues . . . rising Covid infection rate, pressure on hospitals, severe finaniclal distress for huge sections of the economy because of the shutdowns, and impending elections (again!!). But the practical aspect is that there are lots of Palestinians who work in Israel and go back and forth weekly if not daily.

Agnes - being on the ground in Israel doesn't mean the reporting (or the editing further up the pipeline) isn't biased. You wrote " there are two vaccination efforts in Israel and they don't have the same level of success so far. " I have no idea what you're referring to. AFAIK all the vaccine is being distributed by the government and administered by the 4 HMOs (everyone has to belong to one of them by law). Most of it is Pfizer, we have received a small amount of Moderna (100,000 doses only) which is going to outlying areas. The harder nut to crack is the shut-ins because of the limited amount of Moderna and the cold storage issue. We've been vaccinating for 3-1/2 weeks, and have got to just over 20% of our 9M people. Groups eligible for vaccine were expanded this week to include education workers (so schools could reopen) and everyone over 50 (until this week it's been only 60+). The Covid czar is now saying they hope to start on kids in March, that would be after all adults.

Posted by
7049 posts

Chani, my sincere apologies for not being clear. What party is responsible for vaccination efforts in Gaza and the West Bank? Hamas? The PA? Is there any coordination with Israel required so that Palestinian Arabs get vaccinated? I don't believe they are showing up in the very successful vaccination figures for Israel as a whole. As far as biases go, I suspect when it comes to Israel-Palestinian politics, I doubt there are any totally objective, totally even handed voices out there...and I don't expect anyone living there to be totally neutral due to their life experiences. I did not purposely select certain articles to push any angle - the truth is that every article I've come across that's published in the US or even global papers (on the left and the right) has a similar slant (the slant being not subtle pressure to push Israel to vaccinate people in the occupied territory on "humanitarian" grounds) so I don't have much more to choose from. But just because something is seen as biased doesn't mean that someone can't take away some important tidbits from it - if anything, it shows the prevailing sentiments between different groups, the infighting, and different interpretations of Oslo Accord, Geneva Accords, etc. I try to pull facts and data from all articles and interpret as best as I can - getting into the weeds of Middle East politics with opinions is a lose-lose situation I'd like to stay clear of, especially given my ignorance about a lot of nuances. I trust that anyone reading any article will perform their own due diligence on interpreting what's factual and what is spin and why, etc. The virus doesn't care about what your politics are.

Posted by
26829 posts

To-date US vaccination figures from the CDC dashboard:

Total doses distributed ("recorded as shipped"): 30,628,175
First vaccinations administered: 11,148,991 (3.36% of population; 36.4% of doses available)

The percentage of available doses that has been administered is actually higher than 36.4% because the CDC is not yet reporting the number of second vaccinations given; data published elsewhere indicates that number is about 1.2 million.

The above CDC link has high-level state-by-state data. The Washington Post tracker has somewhat more detailed state-by-state data but is usually updated a bit later in the day than the CDC dashboard.

Posted by
5 posts

And at last, I see the light
And it’s like the fog has lifted
And at last, I see the light
And it’s like the sky is new
And it’s warm and real and bright
And the world has somehow shifted
All at once
Everything looks different
Now that I see Covid is over

Posted by
32510 posts

nice poem, nice sentiment, unfortunately false. Not over. Not by a lot. Coming but not for a while...

Posted by
15560 posts

Agnes, you wrote What party is responsible for vaccination efforts in Gaza and the West Bank? Hamas? The PA?

One of the big questions is invariably: What party is responsible for (insert any issue here) in Gaza and the West Bank? Hamas? The PA? Basically Hamas controls Gaza and the PA controls the West Bank; Hamas and the PA find it difficult to coordinate on anything.

The borders between most of the West Bank and Israel are open and in many places you can drive from one to the other like you'd drive from DC to Arlington or Silver Spring. The only "hard" checkpoint I know of is from Jerusalem to Bethlehem. There's even regular bus service between Jerusalem and Bethlehem and Ramallah. From Ramallah there are buses and shared taxis to most anywhere in the West Bank. AFAIK Palestinians can fly in and out on commerical airlines from Israeli airports. There are no commercial flights to the West Bank. Vaccines and other medical supplies could easily be flown into Israeli or Jordan and then transported to the West Bank by road in an hour or two.

The entire border around Gaza - Israeli and Egyptian - is "hard" (strictly controlled, very limited access).

Posted by
2942 posts

65 plus and teachers will begin getting the vaccine in Virginia next week. By February the second dose will be administered.

Looking good, Old Virginia.

Nigel is right in that it "won't be over" for a long time, but the light will become steadily brighter in the same way as we're moving from the winter solstice to the summer solstice. There will be some great opportunities to travel during the late summer before the hordes return in 2022 and 2023, which could be a record-breaking for tourism. This assumes you have the vaccine.

Posted by
17628 posts

Chani, thank you for the education. Travel is always a lot more relevant and informative when you understand a bit of the politics and forces that are at work in a region or country.

שָׁלוֹם

The financial, physical and emotional cost of travel right now can be pretty high. Gives room for a lot of thought before moving forward with any plans. For me, long haul travel is off the table for the time being.

Posted by
7049 posts

Thank you, Emma, you are the voice of reason. I hope readers here will consider your post and ruminate over it a bit, even if they have an initial knee jerk aversion. I realize every post here is an opinion, but opinions that don’t conform to groupthink and challenge our default biases are particularly valuable to air out, whether they turn out 100% correct or not.

Edit (to add): It's hard to believe hopes/ predictions of "record-breaking" tourism in just a few years or everything snapping back to normal quickly when we're in the midst of a major global economic downturn (from which no country has been spared), and a public health catastrophe the likes of which I've never seen in my relatively short lifetime. After 9/11, travel didn't snap back to "normal" for years (5 or 6, I believe). Even if possible, many people simply won't be traveling because they have taken a huge economic hit (job loss, business loss, etc - of course, wealthier people or those economically unaffected will still be able to afford travel). I guess everyone's idea of "tunnel" length is different. For some, it means merely averting major illness or death by getting their own vaccination, but that is a sliver in the grand scheme of things. I hope that things will get better sooner, but I think we're in for a ride and I don't know enough to know how long it will take us. I think humility is prudent at this stage.

Posted by
8375 posts

Yes, thanks emma. Optimism is infectious, (sorry) but it will likely be months before we even know that vaccination has been effective in controlling the pandemic We haven't even peaked yet.

Posted by
17628 posts

There's a light at the end of the Tunnel!!!! I have been fortunate to
work at a large medical center and yesterday I received a Covid-19
vaccination. The stress has been hard to deal with over the last 6 mo.
as the hospital staff has been pushed to the edge both physically and
emotionally. After I got the vaccination I realized that if enough
people are vaccinated then all of us, who have a passion for travel,
will be able to return traveling. Like all of you I miss the planning
and actually going on trips, especially to Europe. I have a
reservation at a hotel on the Amalfi coast for June of 2021, so let's
all hope that after a terrible year like 2020 that 2021 will be
better!!!
Posted by Donald (Wichita, KS, United States) on 12/16/20 11:22 AM

That’s fantastic Donald.

I am holding on to my optimism. I understand some of our numbers are bit down, our vaccines aren’t going as well as hopped, but I heard a news report that we are doing better than average for the US; and in a week it all changes and the vaccination rate will go up exponentially.

I’ve got two trips in the works. One in the Spring one in the early Fall. The Spring trip will happen when its appropriate for it to happen; might be about the same time as your Spring Trip to the Amalfi Coast (love it and a bit jealous of you).

I’m with you. 2020 was miserable. And yes, let’s hope 2021 will be better.

The financial, physical and emotional cost of travel right now can be pretty high. Gives room for a lot of thought before moving forward with any plans. For me, long haul travel is off the table for the time being. Until then, wash your hands, wear your masks and watch your social distancing.

Posted by
5697 posts

Yes, the announcement that over-65's will now be eligible for vaccine appointments ... followed closely by another announcement that in fact, there IS no massive availability of vaccine so even if you are allowed to try for an appointment next week it may be many weeks before you get to the head of the line ... and three or four weeks more to get the second jab ... and then some time for maximum efficacy.
Not making any travel reservations right now.

Posted by
2065 posts

What if this virus requires a yearly booster to continue to provide immunity? Will those needing the booster jump in front of those who are still in line for their first injection or second injection? Unless something changes drastically, we don’t have enough vaccine for second doses now according to today’s news. Travel? What’s that? It’s a bummer for sure.

Posted by
26829 posts

We have two more vaccines that may receive emergency use authorizations within a few months, and the US has contracts for deliveries from both those companies. I think we're covered for the initial round, and probably within a year or even less. The issue may be getting the vaccines into arms, as we're currently seeing.

We'll have to wait and see about the need for boosters. Most vaccines last multiple years. I think the reason annual flu shots are required is that the flu virus mutates very rapidly, rendering the earlier versions of the vaccine useless.

Posted by
4495 posts

the flu virus mutates very rapidly

I don’t think viruses can mutate so quickly as to outrun vaccines in one year. I think what is happening with flu is that there are so many strains of flu that different ones rise to prominence each season and vaccines are tailored to the 2 or so strains projected to dominate.

Posted by
8375 posts

Actually, they do mutate relatively rapidly. Here's a good reference from CDC: cdc flu mutations If it was just a rotation of existing strains, they could vaccinate for all of them at once.

Posted by
4495 posts

Stan: I am no expert but vaccine specialists have said it takes about 7 years for flu to outrun a vaccine by mutating. I think the expectation is this coronavirus will behave similarly. According to another source there are 29 substrains of flu so if each substrain is on a 7 year race to outrun a vaccine one can see how yearly vaccination for flu is required.

Posted by
2942 posts

I know it's an American characteristic, but I'll take the more optimistic perspective.

I learned it from my Greatest Generation grandfather. Between overcoming the Great Depression, winning World War II, and landing men on the Moon, I'd say his Yank optimism, despite a dark, existential tunnel, paid off.