Potential Impact of Locals' Domestic Trips on Lodging Availability in Europe

Thanks for the quote. Not surprising that it is the more outdoorsy self contained options being snapped up. My region in Canada had rented most cottages for the summer by mid January. Campsites were being sold out for the summer within 2 hours of opening reservations. Similar trend in US with people buying trailers or campers to head to the national parks or camping off grid...to get away but still (attempt) to main distance.
If for some reason I had to travel to Europe in the summer, I still figure I can find some sleep option last minute even if it isn't my first or ideal choice. I'll put it down to having to adapt again to some covid influence. But I would have to be some kind of desperate to travel before September. Retirement isn't until Aug 1st.

I had read similar articles about a month ago about Ireland where folks were being forced to stay local so assuming accommodations in lots of areas will be hard to come by. Also given all the folks staying home in the US and planning for the Natl Parks, I would think the towns around the NPs will be overcrowded.

My trip is to Eastern Europe (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) and the Balkans (Kosovo, Albania, Corfu) where I have had no issues with car rentals or hotel bookings. Now hoping these countries will be open by late July.

City breaks tend to be booked more last minute than countryside or coastal locations, so these numbers don’t surprise me. They are also more popular out of school holiday times, not peak season.

There is a real prospect in the U.K. that museums, theatres, events and other indoor activities will not be fully open in the summer, plus some are nervous about travelling on public transport, which again precludes city stays. We have been told to expect social distancing and mask wearing to continue into next year at least.

Personally, I wouldn’t travel anywhere and just stay in cities. Getting out and seeing and walking in the countryside would form an essential part of any holiday.

Prior to the pandemic there were about 14000 hotel rooms and 10000 short term rentals in Budapest. At least 1/3 of the short term rentals did not survive the pandemic. How many hotels have or will close, I don't know....

That's a good point, James. We won't know until things open up and we start trying to book, I guess.

Whenever things do open up, there will likely also be many more Europeans staying within Europe for vacations, not just locals in their own country. Pretty much everyone I know here in Switzerland has already ruled out intercontinental travel for 2021, but there is high interest in travel within Europe if possible. Given the slow vaccine rollouts here and around Europe, I'm not too optimistic about travel this summer...I've already assumed we will be spending our vacation weeks here, somewhere in the mountains.

The lodging trend has been similar here - city hotels are suffering a lot and some places have permanently closed. Prices have come down a bit and if business travel stays depressed, there could be further closures, especially as city breaks have limited appeal for most tourists (both domestic and foreign) in a country like Switzerland. We stayed in Bern recently for a long weekend and there were maybe 10-15 guests in our 100-room hotel. Even if things eventually bounce back, there may be an interim period with fewer rooms and/or lower prices until demand returns to high levels.

The mountains have fared somewhat better, at least in the popular resorts and villages. Places with few bookings just seemed to close rather than staying open for a few guests (understandable since many rely on seasonal staff) and a lot of the mountain hotels had mini-closures outside of the typical ski vacation times this past winter. Self-catering apartments have been in high demand and I'd expect that trend to continue. Last summer we saw a lot of European tourists in the mountain regions and this may be where the tougher competition will remain, especially on the lower end of the budget scale.

A few places that are usually swamped with tourists, Luzern and Interlaken for example, have been hit hard and some hotels have also closed (if only temporarily) because their usual visitors from abroad (US, Gulf States, etc) aren't around and there is very limited demand for overnight stays there by regional visitors. I know Luzern is also revisiting the AirBnb issue, as residents have been using the break in tourism to push for more restrictions on apartments being used for commercial purposes, so this may also end up reducing some capacity in the long run.

rental market will rebound even quicker as there is literally no
barrier to entry.

Don't count on it. AirBnb has become a dirty word.

Self-catering apartments have been in high demand and I'd expect that trend to continue

The same in France — I don’t know what the factors are in Switzerland, but here, since restaurants have been closed since late October (and no prospect for their reopening), it’s kind of hard to go away if you don’t have a cooking option in your lodging.

There were different rules in different regions (the French-speaking part had closures throughout last autumn), but restaurants have been closed nationwide since mid-December here in Switzerland too, except for takeaway and hotels - which are only allowed to serve overnight guests. This was done basically to placate the ski regions and allow winter tourism, although it has annoyed a lot of the non-hotel restaurants. Some hotels have opted to keep their restaurants closed though and just allow guests to bring takeaways into the hotel instead. And many restaurants aren't doing takeaway and just remain closed.

In any case, the self-catering option has become more popular because a lot of people just don't want to deal with the potential risks of crowded hotel restaurants. Not to mention that a set-menu dinner at the hotel can add a lot to the budget, whereas cooking for yourself or bringing takeaway back to an apartment allows more flexibility. I think some of this will stick even as things normalize because people will have new habits and/or lingering concerns..