Possible jet fuel shortages

There should not be shortage of car petrol. But diesel shortages are a possibility; and if diesel becomes more expensive, all things delivered by trucks will become more expensive, triggering inflation.
Jet fuel looks to be the main problem. In Italy already four smaller airports have declared fuel shortage; at present this means, 'please pilots, arrive here well stocked so that you have enough fuel to go back to starting point'. But if the thing goes on it could turn more serious. If the fuel has to be rationed, first in list will be military, state and service flights, second will be long range flights, third and more at risk short range flights.

I am personally extremely worried about this. Apparently the last cargo of jet fuel bound for Europe to pass thru the Strait of Hormuz just arrived this past weekend, and we have no idea when we'll be getting more. It's absolutely a real concern especially for shorter flights. The Guardian reported on this on Friday: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/10/european-airports-jet-fuel-shortages-flights-iran

All we can do is cross our fingers and hope things reopen soon. Of course, it will then take some time for supplies to return to normal.

More frustrated with the whole situation than concerned. Both WestJet and Air Canada have stated that the first flights it will cancel-if it comes to that point, will be from Europe and Asia. Luckily I have no flights booked until October. This couldn't possibly last that long could it?....I do recall saying that about the pandemic in March 2020 when I openly wondered if I should cancel my Trip to Scotland. I didn't right away, because...how long could it possibly last.

Yes, I'm a bit worried. And I don't want to feel guilty for traveling and using fuel. We have a trip to Italy planned for October, but all the hotels can be cancelled and I'm not booking air for a couple months. We'll have to start booking attractions then, too. Then we will access the situation. When the war started, I was dismayed that people who expressed any kind of concern on these forums were mocked by people saying, "Unless you're traveling to the Middle East, why worry?" So many many reasons to worry.

I think people were/are probably just a bit naive about the knock on effects of the war. It’s exactly the same as when Covid hit. Europe was really quite panicked but Rick was still posting about how he was going to travel as usual and there was no need to worry. Obviously, he didn’t in the end but the whole thing was quite interesting.

I would not be at all surprised if I don’t get to go on the holiday I’ve got booked for this summer.

A travel vlog I skim had a story about a discount Euro airline that is telling people there will be an additional X euros collected to cover increased fuel costs or you're not flying. It wasn't a great amount but it caused a great deal of outrage amongst the commenters on the site.

I see if I can dredge it up. I can easily see this becoming the norm, force majeure and all that.

Hey I found it

https://viewfromthewing.com/airline-tells-already-ticketed-passengers-to-pay-extra-for-fuel-as-oil-prices-soar-or-be-denied-boarding/

Allan:
Can you give us a link to the WestJet and Air Canada statements?
Thanks.
I’m taking WestJet to Dublin in June……

I spend my time in France…..in Calvados. There are rumors of impending shortages.

4.9 Fuel Cost Adjustment
In the event of extraordinary variations in fuel prices affecting international energy markets, Volotea may apply a limited and temporary adjustment to the ticket price prior to the scheduled departure of the flight.
Any such adjustment will be calculated in accordance with the methodology, thresholds and limits published on Volotea’s website.
Passengers will be informed during the booking process of the methodology applicable to any adjustment resulting from increases or decreases in fuel costs, which may lead to a corresponding increase or decrease in the price of their Ticket. The exact amount of any such adjustment will be communicated to passengers prior to departure, once the applicable fuel cost variation has been determined. Such adjustments will only apply to passengers who have been informed of this possibility during the booking process, allowing them to make an informed decision before completing their purchase.
By completing their purchase after being informed of the possibility of any adjustment to the Ticket price, passengers acknowledge and accept that such adjustment may be applied and authorise Volotea to charge any corresponding increase, or reimburse any decrease, using the same payment method used to purchase the Ticket.
( From the link provided by phred)

I haven't ever booked or even looked at the Volotea site, so can only wonder how apparent the notice is regarding fuel surcharges.

I'm certainly not mocking anyone who is concerned, as this sort of worry can detract from your enjoyment - on holiday you're supposed to be relaxed, right?

Just sharing from my perspective, however, as someone who travels quite frequently for both work and leisure. Right now I am booked to fly in May, July, September (two trips) and November (also two trips). I have taken four trips this year to date, including one to the Middle East. A jet fuel shortage is an acknowledged fact, but the likely response of airlines is to cancel some flights and hike prices. I am not overly concerned about delays, nor do I think them particularly likely on the routes I typically fly.

I am not one to worry about what might happen. If and when something does, I'll deal with it - there's always a solution.

First of all, jet fuel and fuel for cars are two different things altogether. There are refineries that produce both car and jet fuel, while other only produce car fuel.
I don’t know which article you read, but there currently are no car fuel shortages in the EU. Some Total gas stations in France indeed ran out of car fuel, but that was because Total decided to cap the fuel price. The Total gas stations were therefore the cheapest, so people filled up their cars there. The shortage at these gas stations wasn’t a matter of nationwide supply issues, but because demand for Total car fuel suddenly increased sharply and they simply couldn’t keep up refilling the gas stations. Especially because the gas stations weren’t refilled anyway because of Easter.

And secondly, whether or not a potential jet fuel shortage might occur is very much dependent on the region. In some Asian countries, the majority of the jet fuel is imported from the Gulf Region and not refined locally. They will be faced with jet fuel shortages earlier than Europe and North-America which do have refineries where jet fuel is produced locally. The Netherlands alone for example has 3 refineries where jet fuel is produced.

Yes, you understand the gravity of this matter on fuel shortage. I'm honestly surprised to read that most or less people don't get the drift of the gravity of fuel shortage.

We never know which country have severe fuel shortage. We never know whether the entire flight industry might be grounded due to lack of fuel or oil, i mean that we might be suddenly left stranded, we might not be able to fly....back home. That's what I'm worried the most. We never know. scared Almost similar to covid pandemic.

I really pray HARDER that the Straits of Hormuz will be reopened ASAP!! So that we can go travelling and enjoy sightseeing.

May i ask if you will still buy eurostar/rail train tickets overseas in advance knowing that there might be a possibility that air flight might be cancelled which you already bought?

May i ask if you will still buy eurostar/rail train tickets overseas
in advance knowing that there might be a possibility that air flight
might be cancelled which you already bought?

If I had your concern for jet fuel, no I would not.

Possible jet fuel shortages

In most, if not all, situations with a "shortage", supply and demand dynamics kick in and pricing reacts accordingly. As noted by others, there are refineries around the world - ie nowhere near the Iran conflict - that can and will continue to produce jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, various petrochemicals, etc..

So, as noted in other threads, the prices for these products will go up, but specifically for air travel, the airlines will be doing all sorts of triage and prioritization exercises to get "the most" from their individual fleets and flight networks. They ground inefficient planes, combine under-utilized routes, they cancel some flights, they furlough staff, they bump prices, and other things to maximize their profits and efficiency in any market conditions.

The world - especially wealthier nations - will find a way to keep travel going as well as it can. Folks who can absorb higher priced flights will continue to fill the planes, and airlines will rightsize their options to match the current needs. There may be long term impact of poorly positioned airlines - maybe even a few go out of business - but in general, most airlines are used to boom/bust cycles, and will implement what they can to smooth it out and ride it out.

A bigger worry might be this... if jet fuel remains ample and consumer trends in the air travel industry continue on their present course, the share of total carbon emissions due to jet traffic is set to increase from 2.5%-3% today to 22% by 2050. Reduced flight options may disappoint the jet set but may also ease Mother Earth's worries about the future.

May i ask if you will still buy eurostar/rail train tickets overseas
in advance knowing that there might be a possibility that air flight
might be cancelled which you already bought?

J@p28al, we've been over this on your other thread. As discussed there, It has less to do with not understanding the situation as weighing what's the acceptable level of risk for you personally. Again, and kindly, given the amount of anxiety this issue is causing you, I would put the trip off until a time that feels less unstable for you personally. There are no reassurances anyone can give you that all will go like clockwork given the situation is in flux. That's OK if your tolerance is low: you just have to make the right decisions for YOU versus those of travelers more willing to walk a finer line.

But in addition, your unwillingness to provide any information about your trip - and which has been repeatedly requested - doesn't help people to help you. For instance, there's a difference, say, between traveling two weeks from now versus planning for the fall,

To be honest, the whole situation In the Middle East has me worrying about much bigger things than a shortage of jet fuel but I guess that's beside the point.

Can you give us a link to the WestJet and Air Canada statements?

SJ, I can't find the article I read it in and I wouldn't panic. It was a broad statement discussing worst case scenarios.

May i ask if you will still buy eurostar/rail train tickets overseas
in advance knowing that there might be a possibility that air flight
might be cancelled which you already bought?

Eurailpasses are a better option for someone concerned about last-minute cancellations. You can buy a mobile pass at the last minute, and though you might not save the kind of money you'd save with p2p tickets bought in advance for a discount, you might still save something... that of course depends on your travel intentions, which you alone understand.

While I am among those who believe is it likely to be resolved soon and I wouldn't alter plans, Europe is already pinched and a more severe situation is clearly foreseeable.

Per Business channel CNBC:

A ‘systemic’ jet fuel shortage is brewing in Europe — and flights
could be hit hard PUBLISHED TUE, APR 14 202610:05 AM EDT

Europe’s airline industry is at risk of a “systemic” jet fuel shortage
in the next few weeks if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, with
the potential of hundreds of flight cuts, according to experts.

Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, told CNBC’s
Ritika Gupta on “Europe Early Edition,” on Tuesday that the situation
facing airlines “pretty much depends on how many barrels will be
flowing through the Strait.”

“The situation within the next three, four weeks can become systemic,
so you can have severe cuts of flights in Europe already starting in
May and June,” he added.

Happy travels

The French news tonight, Tuesday April 14th, reported that the French airlines expect to have fuel shortages starting in three weeks. The government has asked the processing sites to increase production but all are at max capacity now, with one exception that can increase production 10%. Remember that the processing facilities in the Gulf were destroyed by one side or the other.
Plan accordingly.

Unless my American airlines flights are canceled I plan to go on the first of 3 trips to Europe.
Depart for Italy April 29-return May 20.
I think it's likely that the return may be affected,but also I'm confident that I would get home eventually.
I'm retired and manage my house and finances remotely whenever I travel so a delayed return would not be optimal, but not a major problem.
The other trips in July and last trip in October may be more problematic, Anything can happen.

Trans-Atlantic flights will be a real problem. Those planes cannot carry enough fuel for a round trip.
.A/ The question is could "Europe" save enough fuel by restricting 'domestic flights' ( "use the trains") to continue long range flights?

Natural gas, which I understand is used to generate electricity, is also feeling the pinch, so summer time A/C may become an unaffordable 'luxury'. If you get there how comfortable will in be in the summer.

We continue to live in "interesting" times.

Perhaps RS new motto should be "Keep on traveling, (but have a plan B and be flexible)"

No panic.
My other question is would trip cancellation/interruption insurance cover cancelled flights due to lack of fuel?
Or is it considered an act of war?

If your flight is cancelled, the airline should reschedule you and put you on another flight. If a flight cancellation causes you to miss out on non-refundable accomodation, bookings etc, then travel insurance should cover that (but read your policy terms).

I have a trip planned to SE Asia in late May (which has been especially hit hard by this needless war) so I am following things very closely. My main concern is that although I might make it there, I might not be able to get back! Of course, I do not wish to downplay the experiences of the people who live there and are facing incredible challenges as a result. My vacation plans are meaningless in comparison.

Just under the 4 week countdown for our first trip abroad, and my spouse mentioned this this evening.
Wondering about Scandinavian Airlines as we are booked from Dulles (Washington DC) through Copenhagen to Prague.
We purchased refundable tickets and have a cancellation clause for our hotel.

Thinking of calling Scandinavian by next week to ask for any insight or expectations.

Not sure what else can be done.

'My main concern is that although I might make it there, I might not be able to get back!"

Where in SE Asia are you going, and which airlines are you flying? If impacted, airlines are most likely to consolidate lower performing flights (ie shift you onto another flight). And so far that's just been some airlines in Vietnam and the Philippines. Not to say it's not an issue, but at worst you may face some delays - but if you're on a route with a high load factor that's highly unlikely.

@Simon I'm flying to Vietnam via Taipei (EVA Air), then a couple of domestic flights within Vietnam. Then I'm flying from HCMC to Singapore on Singapore Air.

These are very financially stable major global carriers. I would not be remotely concerned. These are also a busy, active routes with plenty of demand.

Airlines that have cut flights have been smaller airlines, and they've cut some lower demand flights.

EU commisioner said there is no shortage but there are concerns, although not alarmist.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/no-shortage-jet-fuel-eu-concerns-remain-commission-says-2026-04-14/

No concerns at the MOMENT. But according to the French government there will be problems in three weeks. A friend’s flight for mid-May from Armenia to Marseille was cancelled this morning.

Airlines that have cut flights have been smaller airlines, and they've cut some lower demand flights.

United is a pretty big carrier, and like all the others - big and small - they're making changes and cuts are a big part of any airlines strategy for high fuel costs - baggage fee increases, fare hikes, "temporary" surcharges, and consolidation/cuts to flights. What comes AFTER is as important as anything, as most of those changes are very sticky and become the new normal, rather than being rolled back.

With no signs of reprieve on the way, airlines have begun trimming their schedules. United Airlines Holdings Chief Executive Scott Kirby told reporters last month that the carrier would have to cut back on flights in Asia, where jet fuel is especially exposed to the bottleneck in the Middle East.
“There’s no point in burning cash in the near term on flying that just can’t absorb these fuel costs,” Kirby said in a letter to employees on March 20.

• https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/airline-flight-cost-jet-fuel-impact-6ade2e32?st=Ui7uNh&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Without sounding alarmist, I feel as tho some people on this thread are not understanding the gravity of this situation. This is not (just) about higher prices. This is about a complete lack of supply. Last week it was widely reported (including at the link I shared above) that Europe has three weeks of jet fuel left. That is now more like two weeks. The price is irrelevant if there is nothing to purchase. At the moment, there are no more deliveries on their way to Europe. As Elizabeth says above, yes we have jet fuel right now, but the major concerns are only a few weeks away. We all really, really hope this is resolved before then but we should all be prepared for major disruptions. Even once the strait reopens it will take time for things to return to normal.

The price is irrelevant if there is nothing to purchase. At the
moment, there are no more deliveries on their way to Europe. As
Elizabeth says above, yes we have jet fuel right now, but the major
concerns are only a few weeks away. We all really, really hope this is
resolved before then but we should all be prepared for major
disruptions. Even once the strait reopens it will take time for things
to return to normal.

Finally you understand and get the drift. May i ask how would you be prepared for major disruptions?

That's what i am worried all along. I fear that it might lead to severe famine worldwide. How would food crops/food be shipped like that due to fuel shortage?

Don't forget that Europe rely heavily on fuel/gas to keep people warm during cold winter. About 5 -6 months' time coming winter.

I've edited a few replies. Most of you are doing great (thank you), and I know that this all stemmed from a political situation, but thank you for continuing to avoid referring to it and keeping this about travel. One reference is the excuse someone else needs to comment on the politics and then the thread is lost.

I've had another comment that this thread is alarmist. The subject is inherently speculative which we don't tend to permit here as that can get wild and unhelpful to the traveling community. However, there are concrete reasons for the concern with citations from journalistic sources. I think everyone here is doing there best to avoid commentary on the alarm and talk about how best to handle and plan for contingencies without being too speculative. As long as that continues to be the vein of the conversation here, that is clearly helpful for travelers that may need to prepare alternative plans.

Thanks to all of you for helping each other in challenging circumstances, and doing so in a way that is mindful of the purpose of this forum.

Carry on.

J@p28al, my responses to you were strictly in relation to your ongoing anxiety about rail booking; your initial question on this thread. That is something you have control over, although maybe not to your satisfaction as far as unknowns. I absolutely do understand the gravity of the larger situation and worry too but less about fuel for leisure trips than many other current and potential effects of the conflict. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

"Don't forget that Europe rely heavily on fuel/gas to keep people warm during cold winter. About 5 -6 months' time coming winter."

Actually, there's a lot of electricity powered by nuclear plants in western Europe. Many countries are ahead of the curve on renewables. There are furnaces that run on waste. Western Europe has been moving away from petrol for a while. We'll see what kind of government subsidies will be available to convert those old oil-burning furnaces to more modern furnaces. This isn't new for most of Europe since the Ukraine war.

Elizabeth, thanks for the clarification.

This is a reminder to avoid speculation - or effectively asking for it - with regard to what's happening with Iran.

"United is a pretty big carrier, and like all the others - big and small"

I was replying to GregW's question about his trip to Asia, in which he's flying with EVA Air and Singapore Airlines, so nothing to do with United (albeit I see rhe reference to Asia).

No one can predict the future, but what I was trying to get at as someone who actually lives in Asia is that I am not concerned about being able to fly.

Finally - Asia is a very big region, so fair to say some countries will be more affected than others.

In the interest of keeping everyone informed on this developing situation, I am sharing a quote below from today's live blog on The Guardian. Looks like we will hear more about how the EU plans to respond on 22 April (unless we have some good news before then!).

"The European Union is drafting plans to tackle a looming jet fuel supply crunch and maximise refinery output, officials say. European airlines have warned of jet fuel shortages within weeks as a result of the Iran war, disrupting travel ahead of summer. Europe is more dependent on jet fuel imports – with some 75% from the Middle East – than for any other transport fuel, Reuters reports. From next month, the European Commission will introduce EU-wide mapping of refining capacity for oil products and introduce measures “to ensure that existing refining capacity is fully utilised and maintained”, a draft proposal says.

The EU is also working on measures targeting jet fuel supply, but those are still in development, officials familiar with the proposals said. The EC declined to comment on the draft plans, which are due to be published on 22 April. Jet fuel prices have soared since the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and European airlines are warning of price hikes, cancellations and grounded planes if the war does not end soon."

The main part of my job is Futures analysis. Looking at what possibly might happen in the future, both positive and negative, so that my organisation can attempt to plan for it.
This is not ‘prediction’ or ‘speculation’. It also isn’t ’scaremongering’ to attempt to discuss a difficult and uncertain situation to try and make the best of it! We describe it as ‘ strategic anticipation’, looking at a range of possibilities to be at least partially prepared. It’s the kind of slightly ridiculous language beloved by senior management!
If you are planning a trip in particularly complex times why wouldn’t you want anticipate what might happen so you are at least partially prepared? This doesn’t mean panic, fret or stew on it. A perfectly valid response could be to decide it’s out of your control, but at least it won’t be a surprise when it happens.

If you are planning a trip you obviously need to be aware of the ongoing fuel situation. It is not just the cost it is the availability. Doesn’t matter what the cost is if it isn’t available!
If the situation drags on the implications will grow. If fuel prices continue to rise so will the cost of your cab from the airport or your countryside tour. If fuel is in short supply cancellations and shortages are pretty certain. It’s not just fuel that’s the issue. Regardless of how long the situation drags on inflation is going to be an issue with all its knock on consequences.

If you are planning a trip you should be at least a bit prepared. Does your planned budget need looking at? What contingencies do you have if you get stuck? How will you communicate with home if there are technology problems? If there are problems how will you cope if travel insurance and your government response doesn’t cover it? They probably won’t.

It is also really important to look at the situation in the countries you are planning to visit not just what you are seeing at home. Trade routes and agreements, policies and regulation all massively differ ( as does media reporting and political spin!). How it is at home is no indication of how it might be at your destination.

A bit of research and planning is not panicking and will help you have a much more enjoyable trip.

Bravo Emma! Very well said.

When I started planning September's trip to Italy, fuel was not a issue. But I looked at other possible glitches, especially since we're getting older with more aches and pains, or if my at-home husband develops issues.
I can't control everything, which is a challenge for me. What helps are having contingency plans or attitude adjustment for letting go or promoting change via the ballot box.

`The head of the European Energy Agency said that Europe has about six weeks of et fuel left.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-europe-jet-fuel-flight-cancellations-birol-6e67fafd493861b3858de5548aa77703

Emma, well said! Thank you for your concise and logical explanation/assessment of the situation.

We have a Med cruise booked and we leave in 3 weeks. We are flying on Delta to Barcelona on May 7, and flying back to the US from Athens on May 19. This is a college graduation gift for 2 of my children and has been planned for almost a year.

This news has me very concerned. I don't even know what alternatives I should be researching, besides canceling our trip.

6 weeks.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-europe-jet-fuel-flight-cancellations-birol-6e67fafd493861b3858de5548aa77703

terryandpeg89 could you reboot to another less conflictd date? I'm only writing this as I have a very ill family member plus a late summer trip abroad, so I'm mentally prepared to change the dates as necessary in this murky, volatile situation. As I've gotten older you just never know regarding family, friends, and loved ones.

I am comfortable traveling in Europe, but also I recognize how serious it is if there is a shortage of jet fuel. I am old enough to remember the gas shortages in the 70’s when you couldn’t get gas. I have been in Europe when there has been strikes. It is a big inconvenience when one airline goes out on strike and you have to compete with all the other passengers to book flights on other airlines. It is totally different when multiple airlines start cancelling fights because they don’t have fuel. How successful do you think you will be when so many passengers are suddenly left stranded and are trying to get home? This is a big deal! You have better hope you are a frequent flyer with a major airline and have some pull. Just like the gas crises in the 70’s, no matter how much you wanted gas and how badly you needed gas, you still couldn’t get it. In short, if there is a jet fuel shortage and flights start getting cancelled in larger and larger numbers, don’t just think positive thoughts or experience, will get you on an airplane. There won’t be very many open seats available.

Got pretty spicy in Ireland to be fair Elizabeth. Last time I looked, they're in Europe.

Our European trip is a little over 6 weeks out. Thanks Emma for the reminder to review all relevant aspects of the trip. If we were younger we’d probably postpone, but so far we’re keeping our fingers crossed. That could change. I feel like, give our past travel hiccups, we pretty good at pivoting, but it reminded me we need to be aware of alternate travel options and have contact info for those.

Well, I just came by this forum to look at something else and saw this thread.

We are due to leave for Lisbon the 24th…next week!

I remember the uncertainty and anxiety of early February 2020 as my March trip to France became very iffy and I had to cancel the 3 month stay :-(

We have travel insurance for this upcoming trip. I am willing to take my chances of getting to Europe and not currently afraid to be delayed over there when it’s time to return to the US. Maybe this is foolish, but if we have to stay back for a couple weeks more, and we have shelter and food wherever we are, we should be all right.

We survived a coup in the Caribbean many years ago, Chernobyl, Covid and the demonstrations and burning of cars and property in Paris and Leon (even experienced tear gas) in 2023, so I think we could survive this. Oh, I forgot the hurricane in the Caribbean, too! Seems like trouble follows us LOL.

Still, we are trying to follow world news and discussing the what ifs. Panicking doesn’t really solve anything. Have talked about maybe trying to find a way to relatives in Germany if we have to be in Europe more than the 3 planned weeks.

Best of luck to everyone.

I just hope that if flights start getting cancelled it is before we leave and not after we're already there. We have animals being boarded and jobs to get back to. I'm not sure what we'd do.

I may book some fully cancellable accommodation for the few days after the last day of my trip, the last two weeks of June.
Just in case of a flight cancellation getting home.
I’m retired and thankfully have nothing pressing to rush home for.
Just husband and the cat.😉

Norse Airlines has cancelled all flights from US to Europe and they are citing the fuel costs. This is a budget airline, and I can understand that they would need to make some business decisions around the cost of doing business. So far, our British Airways flight next week is still a go, so hopefully the long-haul flight major airlines keep flying...

For what it is worth, I have SAS flights booked for mid-May to and late May return to the USA. I change planes in Copenhagen to and from. SAS already changed my return flight by changing the plane type to accommodate more people and it is is fully booked as of the date of notice. I am guessing they will do this before cancelling outright; meaning you may have a change of date but not be stranded abroad. The airlines do not want to lay out massive funds to hotels, refunds and food. Be flexible, be patient, be prepared to change times or routes.

I am willing to take my chances of getting to Europe and not currently afraid to be delayed over there when it’s time to return to the US. Maybe this is foolish, but if we have to stay back for a couple weeks more, and we have shelter and food wherever we are, we should be all right.

Why do you think it would be for only "a couple weeks" more?

Hopefully this isn’t being too “speculative” but I’m curious to know how people would handle being “stuck” in Europe?

For example, I assume the first order of business would be to secure a roof over your head. Given the amount of people stuck there I wonder if accommodations would be hard to come by, or perhaps it would be evened out by the lack of people coming in and Europeans staying home. Perhaps heading closer to the states would make sense, maybe to Dublin or Iceland.

Some people have jobs to get back to, some can work remotely and some are retired. Otherwise there are other responsibilities to get back to, like home upkeep. Worrying about pets would really stress me out.

In 2010 the Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted and disrupted flights but the big difference here is the airlines can see this coming — they know how much fuel they can obtain. I feel it would be highly negligent for an Airline to fly you to Europe and know that they can’t get you back home.

Anyone planning a trip to Australia should be concerned. The Australian Prime Minister has had to go ‘cap in hand’ to Singapore and Brunei begging for fuel, as Australia faces a severe shortage.

Travel insurance: do you think these potential cancellations would be covered by a standard insurance policy or would they not be covered due to it being the result of a you know what, which is usually stated a non covered reason.

I think my April 30 departure date will probably get me to Europe without too much difficulty. The thorny part is the end of the trip--how much of a buffer do I allow for a delayed return when I carve out enough non-Schengen time to be sure I stay under the 90-day limit? I'll be ending the trip in Venice, and it's no longer so easy to escape the Schengen Zone from there, now that Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria no longer work. I guess I'd better pack my trip notes for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Albania. Bosnia's closest, but it would be quite a taxi ride. It's not like flying would be an option if things are bad!

(Edited): Obviously everyone's circumstances re work, dependents, home etc are different. Our kids are grown up, and I can work remotely, so the impact to me of a delay is limited. I'm in the UK next month, and our family are there, so we can always stay with them.

Personally I think there's a lot of catastrophising happening, but I agree it's wise to be on top of the news, and have a plan b. And if it is causing you a lot of worry, not going may be the better option, rather than going snd spending the whole trip stressing.

Going to need to read the policy. Until that is done the answer list looks like this

If you don’t know the answer to a question then why bother “answering” the question?

To reiterate: Travel insurance policies typically state that an act of you know what is not a covered situation.

With that stated, is a cancelled flight due to fuel shortages due to an act of you know what a covered situation?

At this point we are twice removed from the actual cause.

The Strait of Hormuz appears to have reopened! At least for now- from The Guardian:

"Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, posted on X on Friday that “passage for all commercial vessels through strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire”. The passage through the strait will be on the coordinated route announced by the Ports and Maritime Organisation of Iran, Araghchi said."

Let's hope that means we can restock our jet fuel supplies here in Europe soon.

The Straits are open and it appears that a peace deal is close.

In the interest of being somewhat lighthearted with a serious topic...with cruise travel down a bit, maybe the big lines will add more transatlantic crossing trips. Ships run on diesel, which we seem to be making plenty of here in the US. It will take two weeks rather than two days to cross the Atlantic and return home, but those of us with rather unlimited travel schedules can make this sacrifice for those of you that have to fly.

If a ship crosses the Atlantic direct, as a Line Voyage, rather than a cruise calling at intermediate ports it is a 6 to 7 day voyage, rather than two weeks.

"The Straits are open and it appears that a peace deal is close."

Thanks for the "heads up" Geova, price per barrel has dropped to low $80s and the S&P 500 has gone above 7100, lets hope that this situation holds and this war is ended soon.

Ships run on diesel

Don't most run on heavy fuel oil? A much dirtier and more polluting product than diesel.

Thanks @cj for the insight with SAS. That helps a lot!

"The Straits are open and it appears that a peace deal is close."

The fat lady hasn't even got to the first verse.

"The Straits are open and it appears that a peace deal is close."
The fat lady hasn't even got to the first verse.

Has anyone even seen her on stage?

The news is hopeful, but now the details and logistics become the nightmare.

I'm embarrassed to admit I once fell asleep at an opera until the singer hit a really loud, high-pitched note and I snorted myself awake. My wife was not pleased. Happened at chruch once, too, but unlike the opera the entire place heard me.

Wizzair and Ryanair send me sale notices every day.

If a ship crosses the Atlantic direct, as a Line Voyage, rather than a
cruise calling at intermediate ports it is a 6 to 7 day voyage, rather
than two weeks.

Yes, it is indeed just 6-7 days to get across. I was planning to come back to the US as well at the end of my European sojurn.

I actually wouldn't mind getting stranded over there.

The Straits are open and it appears that a peace deal is close.

Spoke too soon on that one mate

From what I read this morning, the EU has about 6 weeks of jet fuel left.

This is a real thing. As of now, flight cancellations are only a possibility, but a real possibility.

This morning I asked the following question of Gemini, and it gave me a lengthy answer, which I was able to corroborate through secondary sources. Rather than reprint the whole thing here, if you are interested I would encourage you to post a question like this in Gemini or ChatGPT and see what they say.

I have seen that the EU is releasing energency supplies of jet fuel
because of the war in the middle east. How long would the EU be able
to maintain normal airline activity after such an emergency release of
jet fuel?"

Personally I am not worried about it because I am retired and have the financial ability to stay over there as long as I have to. But if you have a job to get back to, or kids' school, you should be concerned.

Some short-distance flights, particularly on budget airlines, have already been cancelled. Personal experience.

Some short-distance flights,,,,,,,,,,,, have already been cancelled

That makes sense. The greatest fuel burn occurs on take off and climb out. For some short flights that could amount to 30% or more of the total fuel used for a flight. Makes those the 'low hanging fruit' to save the most fuel with the least adverse effect, given how extensive rail service is

We have a flight with Ryan Air in mid May from Budapest to Edinburgh.
Anyone heard anything about cancelations with Ryan Air?
What could be a backup plan?

@mlstimetotravel,

For a backup plan from Budapest to Edinburgh, I would look at flights from Budapest to London and then train (or plane) to Edinburgh. Depending on your travel date, there are over 5 different airlines flying more than a dozen nonstop flights into the various London airports throughout the day.

We have a flight with Ryan Air in mid May from Budapest to Edinburgh.
Anyone heard anything about cancelations with Ryan Air? What could be
a backup plan?``

A friend arrived in Budapest on Ryan this evening. I depart Budapest on one to Rome on Thursday and return on on on Monday.

The back up plan is to depart on the flight Ryan puts me on if my scheduled flight is canceled.

This week both Ryan and Wizz have emailed me news on current sales. That seems to imply they have some level of confidence for the time being.

There are also flights on various carriers from Budapest to Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham, Newcastle and Leeds/Bradford, all of which are closer to Edinburgh than any of the 4 London Airports.
All except Leeds/Bradford have rail links to Edinburgh (LBA is a bus to Leeds for the direct train).

Simon Calder, a respected travel journalist, has this to say about the fuel shortages (It's a Youtube video):

https://youtu.be/X5hqRON1IDo?si=kio5EBvFqku_Y6Na

This article is UK/EU focused but it has some good general advice.
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2026/apr/18/what-to-do-if-flights-cancelled-holidays-disrupted-iran-war-eu-ees

I did also read the advice to avoid flights in and out of smaller airports because they don’t have the capacity to store large amounts of fuel and there are alot fewer alternative options if flights are cancelled.

EDIT Simon Calder is always worth listening to when it comes to travel.

I met Simon Calder in Victoria Tower Gardens and spoke to him briefly once. I saw him again just a few weeks later setting up to film on the Millennium Bridge one morning and I think he remembered me when he said hello.

Wow, so many replies here. Good!

This article is UK/EU focused but it has some good general advice.
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2026/apr/18/what-to-do-if-flights-cancelled-holidays-disrupted-iran-war-eu-ees

Emma, thanks for your valuable sharing. Very useful indeed.
From this source you provided, it wrote "If you are stranded, the airline is obliged to provide meals, transport and accommodation until it can fly you to your destination."

It makes me wonder what if we are suddenly stranded on the day of departure for weeks and weeks become months, how? The airline can afford to provide us meals, transport and accomodation for weeks? We never know what would happen. Life is unpredictable. If Straits of Hormuz is continually closed for months, all countries' fuel might be used up already.

My other question is would trip cancellation/interruption insurance
cover cancelled flights due to lack of fuel? Or is it considered an
act of war?

Threadstarter, your questions should be already answered. It is considered lack of fuel, not act of war so your travel should be covered partially or fully by your travel insurance.

From what I read this morning, the EU has about 6 weeks of jet fuel
left.

The Other Marty, if after 2 months, what would happen? Still no fuel even after 2 months? No flights from and to EU at all?

I really really hope that the Straits of Hormuz will be re-opened ASAP!

I wonder how many low-cost airlines we will see disappear as this drags on, I doubt they can survive long.

The Other Marty, if after 2 months, what would happen? Still no fuel
even after 2 months? No flights from and to EU at all?

My guess is that instead of running out of fuel, the fuel they have would be rationed in some way. Fuel surcharges and ticket price increases would cause less demand for tickets, so the airlines could run fewer planes and reduce less profitable routes. Alternative sources like the United States can increase supply to Europe, but it can't make up for what Europe gets from the Middle East.

My thinking is the price of airline tickets is going to go up quite a bit, and that will reduce demand in a natural way.

It's a weird but effective way to solve the over-tourism problem.

I wonder how many low-cost airlines we will see disappear as this
drags on, I doubt they can survive long.

Low cost is low cost relative to other airlines. Conceivably they all go up in prices. Worst case the legacy airlines price themselves out of the market and the Low Cost, now at the old legacy price point, survives ............ or not. What do I know.

I am concerned that I will be on a trip someplace and the plane runs out of gas!!

It's a weird but effective way to solve the over-tourism problem.

Many said the same thing with the covid-19 pandemic, but over tourism came back with a vengeance after the status quo returned

Thanks to those who answered my question about alternate ways to get from Budapest to Edinburgh.
At the moment we are going to do nothing but I guess we might decide to buy additional plane tickets from Budapest to London then Edinburgh.
I wish I knew if they were needed but of course no one knows the answer to that.
Thanks again.

My wife and I are supposed to go from Florida to Heathrow to CPH, eventually going to Bergen and then Stockholm before returning to Heathrow to head home. This would be Apr 30 and returning May 15. I know people in this thread seem to have mixed thoughts, but how concerned should we be given the circumstances? This is for our wedding anniversary and we've been planning for months

"Threadstarter, your questions should be already answered. It is considered lack of fuel, not act of war so your travel should be covered partially or fully by your travel insurance."

I can't speak for all policies, and I would have assumed mine would cover this, but checking the terms I find this not to be the case:

"We Will Not Pay For Claims Caused By:
1. Transport Provider caused cancellations,
delays or rescheduling other than when caused
by strikes."

The responsibility to rebook lies with my carrier.

So read your terms carefully!

"It makes me wonder what if we are suddenly stranded on the day of departure for weeks and weeks become months, how? The airline can afford to provide us meals, transport and accomodation for weeks?"

The idea that you'd be stranded for months is not within realms of reality. The economic and social impact is such that governments would find solutions. I'm not saying don't prepare for difficulties, but if travel during COVID taught us anything it's that there's always a solution, albeit it could be a lot more expensive.

FWIW I went to chapgpt just for the heck of it and here's what it says:

How risky is it, realistically?

Think of it like this:

Safety risk: very low (normal aviation levels)
Trip disruption risk: moderate (higher than usual)
Cost risk: high (prices and fees rising)

So not “don’t go”—more like:
👉 “Go, but plan smart.”

Low cost is low cost relative to other airlines. Conceivably they all go up in prices. Worst case the legacy airlines price themselves out of the market and the Low Cost, now at the old legacy price point, survives ............ or not.

I wonder at the "health" of low cost airlines in the US vs Europe. One of the bigger US low cost ones is Spirit, and it's long been on my list of "don't fly on" with many bad headlines over the past several years. They were on the ropes pre-Iran war, and now, with the fuel prices higher than optimal, they're in need of a bailout or face the final spiral towards insolvency & liquidation.

How healthy are Europe's low cost airlines? My bet is some of the larger legacy airlines have a bit of "padding" to allow them to not pass on the full costs for quite a bit, while some of the more thin-margined low cost airlines won't have that option. If prices between the two groups converge even a little bit, it can lure folks to "splurge" on a legacy ticket vs save a few (less than normal) bucks on a low cost ticket. But that's my US legacy vs low cost view, and not one I can make for the Euro ones. Europe seems to have many more and use them much more regularly.

WSJ - Free link to story:US Government Nearing Rescue Deal for Spirit Airlines

Lufthansa is saving fuel by cutting less-profitable short-haul flights within the continent. If your upcoming trip depends on a connecting flight from a major European hub - Paris > Salzburg, just for example - then looking ahead into TRAIN options for that connecting leg could make sense.

Lufthansa is saving fuel by cutting less-profitable short-haul flights within the continent.

And it fits well with the "airlines will mitigate" to figure out how to maximize their efficiency and maintain their bottom lines and/or limit losses. Cuts to less optimal routes "free up" fuel for their bigger and more profitable routes.

Lufthansa cutting 20,000+ flights (!) seems like an insane amount, but when the "equal a 1% reduction in its passenger capacity" is added, it seems much more "reasonable".

From the article, Lufthansa is grounding inefficient aircraft and cutting flights from their struggling CityLine group that were under consideration before the war, and now make even more sense now - similar to Spirit's pre-existing challenges leading them towards a bailout and/or liquidation.

My air tickets are already bought for parts 1 and 2 of this entire summer trip, total time, 87 days all Schengen, Basic Economy, non-refundable, along with having bought the Eurail Global Senior flex 15 day Pass for 2 months., 2nd class.

I am monitoring the news, keeping track of it. Concerned, obviously but not unduly worried as I leave in a month, 26 May for 9 consecutive weeks until flying back CDG-SFO on 30 July.

Tom R, of all the airlines between the US and Europe and within Europe it seems that less than 1% have been affected. Of those it may be that the airline is using the cover of the high prices (not shortage) to close routes that have been losing money. Always bad PR to cancel routes unless its someone else's fault. Not mentioned is if the planes are being used to service more profitable routes (added flights).

Tom R Yeah, knowing a bit of the internals, Lufthansa CityLine have been affected by strikes and conflicts with the staff recently due to comparably poor pay and benefits - so it is rumored the company was just looking for a convenient way to resolve this issue altogether…

Patty, „enough fuel for 6 weeks“ has been the goto statement for most of April now, so I assume this is effectively the usual state for fuel. As long as production proceeds more or less as normal, this is going to continue indefinitely. If not, conditions may apply.

‪Bloomberg News‬ ‪@bloomberg.com‬ · 28s Like the Ernest Hemingway
quote, the energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel war with Iran will
get worse gradually, then suddenly.

Fun quote I saw this morning.

I suspect things will be just fine though; and I'd still not alter my travel plans...until I do!

Happy travels.

SJ, the OP, raised a question as to whether Travel Insurance policies normally exclude coverage for situations such as this. The answer is that a Naval blockade such as what is now happening is considered an Act of War. Acts of War, whether the war is declared or undeclared, are excluded under standard travel insurance policies.

Additionally, “domino effects” from a war are also usually excluded from standard Travel Insurance policies. These could include flight cancellations/delays and the domino-effects of being unable to use train tickets and non-cancellable hotel bookings.

“Cancel-for-Any-Reason” travel
Insurance— a costly alternative to standard travel insurance policies— usually covers these scenarios.
But you need to carefully read any policy under consideration.

Anyone relying on travel insurance to cover the various expenses of your trip should ask questions of the company from which you’re considering buying a travel insurance policy.

Caveat Emptor!

Thank you Kenko for a good travel insurance interpretation and reminder to read your policy, not just the declaration page.

yaboyssilent33 - My wife and I are supposed to go from Florida to Heathrow to CPH, eventually going to Bergen and then Stockholm before returning to Heathrow to head home. The nice things about your route are -

A) You're flying to LHR, then onto CPH, which under most circumstances would not be cancelled, though that flight LHR to CPH might get some 'consolidation' with other flights. CPH is a large airport, hub for SAS, so that's the good news. Assume it's a 'real' airlines like BA/SAS?

B) You have a lot of ferry / train alternatives once you land in CPH, worst case scenario. You could even take the ferry to Bergen, and the train from Bergen to Stockholm, though it would take some time, I would plan a night in Oslo along the way, which by the way is a beautiful city. Hope it works out!

Jet fuel is a global market. No reason to believe US supplies won't be impacted too.

Thanks Kenko.
I did mention “ A.. O. W.. “ in my original post, but it was removed.
Hope it is not removed from your post, as it is important to weed out details and wording in long documents such as travel insurance policies.

Away upstairs to read mine in detail now…..
I’d be interested to know what clauses others have found , and in which policies.

Best of luck in your ongoing travels, everyone.

I travel often enough where it makes sense to self insure. The canceled flights are covered by the airline. The hotels are cancelable 24 hours prior. So its just the cost of the RS tour you are insuring; but I dont do those. I never could make the insurance math work ... for my style of travel.

Near as I can tell, all the end of travel predictions have been click bait and maybe 1% of all flights have been canceled with increased fuel prices being used as an excuse for canceling routes that needed to be canceled for other reasons. Maybe the airlines come out of this stronger?

Insurance companies are not charities. If the language of a policy permits a claim to be rejected, it will be. It's just business.

I have no problem with the concept of insurance and have been maintaining a MedJet evacuation policy for the last few years. However, I choose to self-insure for all other travel risks not already covered by my regular medical-insurance policy. I don't take tours and I don't pre-pay for anything unnecessarily. The amount of money I have at risk is relatively small, so it's a (potential) loss I can afford to absorb. I don't like the idea of having to fight with an insurance company after filing a claim. I'd rather spend that time and energy planning my next trip.

I'm in the same position as Mr. E, figuring I've saved a lot more money by not insuring all my trips than I could lose in the future. However, I think that's just a secondary reason for me not to buy travel insurance.

Jet fuel is a global market. No reason to believe US supplies won't be impacted too.

According to this source -- https://www.worldometers.info/oil/us-oil/ -- the US produces more than it consumes.
The price is going to be the biggest impact; supply unlikely to be an issue.

"I don't like the idea of having to fight with an insurance company after filing a claim"

I know most posters here are Anerican, so the insurabce calculation is a little different, but for those of us who don't have medical insurance that covers us outside our home country, travel insurance is essential, and not particularly expensive.

My annual family policy costs just under USD1000 and covers medical (including evacuation.and treatment), lost of damaged luggage, and costs related to cancellation, prebooking etc related to specific circumstances (medical emergencies causing us to be unable to travel, strikes, carrier insolvency etc).

Last year we made a claim after we were delayed traveling home two weeks due to a medical emergency. Insurance covered treatment, additional hotel bill, the value of the lost flights and arrangements, and the cost of new flights. It was about USD6000. And the insurance company paid immediately without any issues.

Hi all… I haven’t read all the posts except the first one, which I’m responding to. I, too, am worried about travel delays and cancellations. I have a trip to Portugal in July and hoping it doesn’t get disrupted. I share the comments about the worldwide disruption. This really is a small problem comparatively speaking. Nevertheless, I’m wondering if anyone has thoughts on this?

the US produces more than it consumes.
The price is going to be the biggest impact; supply unlikely to be an issue.

That’s not how these markets work. The U.S. doesn’t export our “extra” jet fuel or diesel or gasoline. American Refiners will always maximize profits by selling to the highest bidder. When Lufthansa buys 10,000 tons of jet fuel at that market price, those 10,000 tons are unavailable for U.S flagged carriers.

Hi all… I haven’t read all the posts except the first one, which I’m
responding to. I, too, am worried about travel delays and
cancellations. I have a trip to Portugal in July and hoping it doesn’t
get disrupted. I share the comments about the worldwide disruption.
This really is a small problem comparatively speaking. Nevertheless,
I’m wondering if anyone has thoughts on this?

Hi Cynthia -
I think many 'thoughts' have already been voiced in the thread above, and I'm not sure what could be added at this point that would be helpful? It's a situation that's in flux with no crystal-ball predictions of how and/or when it'll be resolved. Are your concerns specifically about your trip or greater worldwide disruptions?

Emma said that we should be prepared for the worst and anticipate what worst may come.

Now the news announce that there might be food shortage besides fuel shortage. :(

Just curious, may i ask what is your backup plan for your travel in case it really happens?

Just curious, may i ask what is your backup plan for your travel in
case it really happens?

Get a hotel room or Airbnb and extend my trip. Seriously, I am not worried about any of this stuff at all. If they cancel my flight home, I will stay and enjoy myself.

to Cynthia,
To get lots of thoughts regarding your query, read the comments already in the thread. You will find many ideas.

J@p28al, IMHO if there will be very serious food shortages, we'll know about those LONG before making any trip plans or being on trips anytime soon. Very kindly but I don't think this is a travel-related question; if things get that bad, no one is likely to be going anywhere. If this is adding to your ongoing anxiety about fuel shortages, getting stuck abroad, etc., delay any travel plans and stockpile provisions at home.

As well, a severe shortage would likely affect people who have the means to travel less harshly than those who sadly are already facing food insecurity.

Kate, probably as bad as 4 years ago when 15% of the worlds grain was kept from the market.

The gas lines of the 1970s took place twice, the first time in 1973, the 2nd time in 1979 . Both times I was in SF, had to wait in the gas lines, which at times went around the block or look for gas stations flying a green flag...those were the days.

There is no Plan B for my 2 part trip this time. ...we shall see, won't we?

Fred, I graduated from high school in 1973 and remember those gas lines well!
Yep, you and me and Mr. E. shall see where this goes, eh?

I’ve checked the wording in my Travel Cancel and Interruption insurance.
It says:

Not covered:
“Any anticipated event, occurrence, which you were aware of on or before your effective date, and which you knew might be cause for cancellation,interruption or delay of your trip.”

Also:
“War (declared or not) act of foreign enemies, or rebellion.”

So, who knows how that could be applied.
Wait and see, I think.

Canadian : Assured Assistance Inc. company.

I have a flight in 4 hours ...

If the policy mentions "war" per se as an "exclusion" I still might , just might, put in an (useless) claim expecting it be automatically rejected. Then it's not surprising to me at all.

@ Kate....At the time of end of the school year end of May in 1973, when I finished grad school after the targeted 3 semesters, I don't think anyone was imaging that gas lines would a facet in our daily lives in the autumn. Certainly not I, was too excited to go on my 2nd trip to Europe, (5 weeks) as a reward, to the commie capital of Prague for the time and seeing Paris for the first time too.

Remember TWA ? yes, on TWA SFO to Orly in a 747., rock bottom Economy.

Not covered: “Any anticipated event, occurrence, which you were aware
of on or before your effective date, and which you knew might be cause
for cancellation,interruption or delay of your trip.”

I think i understand that if you bought travel insurance before the news on fuel shortage was announced, you might be insured.

From chatgpt: If the airline cancels your flight
Usually the airline refunds or rebooks you, not the insurance.
This is a legal obligation in many places.
Travel insurance normally won’t pay you for the ticket itself in this case.

If you cancel your trip
Travel insurance can refund your flight ticket — only if you have a valid covered reason, such as:
illness or injury
family emergency
visa issues
other listed “unexpected events”
It usually covers non-refundable tickets only.

If the train operator cancels
You usually get a refund directly from the train company
Insurance not needed
If you cancel
Insurance may reimburse only if there’s a covered reason (like illness)
Otherwise → no refund from insurance

Please remember:
You must claim from airline/train first — insurance only covers what you can’t recover
Only non-refundable costs are claimable
You must provide proof (medical cert, documents, etc.)
Not all situations are covered — must match listed “covered reasons”

Good News!!

Air cargo is down 5%. More gas for us!