Peter Greenberg: “Fantastic Airfares to Europe this Year, but Hotel Rates Will Skyrocket.”

I'm glad I already have my hotel rooms booked!

We got a pretty cheap upgrade on our return flight LHR to SFO. Not happening on the flight out.

Kenko, can you please share link to source?

I see some other factors but like reading original first.

I do not think that it is Europeans staying in Europe that are driving hotel rates up. Most Europeans do spend their holidays in Europe normally as well, so the reduction in overseas travel is not going to matter much.

What is however driving prices up are:
- Staff shortages. Which means that hotels need to offer higher wages to find staff, and thus need to increase prices.
- More visitors from Asia. We are for example seeing an increase of visitors from Indonesia and Malaysia here in Switzerland. As those countries get more prosperous (which of course I am happy for) more people there can afford to travel. And that they do.

A lot of European travelers Asian travelers and frankly Canadians. US tourism is down and frankly not even the World Cup can revive it. Personally I know a Canadian family who going to Europe instead of the US. Get ready for more crowds.

One of the things that could drive up hotel costs is the continued curbing of the short-term market. In some cities it can make up a very substantial percentage of the accommodations for tourists. I don’t have numbers, so this is pretty much a gut feeling, but when they banned the short-term rentals in part of this city 10 days ago, maybe 10% of the available accommodations in the city disappeared. We had a bit of a glut so I don’t know how long it will take for the impact to be felt. Maybe never? Today, for another thread I checked some hotel rates, and they appear to be the same or lower for June of this year even though 2025 tourism was up about 7%. Most hotels use dynamic pricing so maybe it will be a while before the effects are felt. It will be fun to watch.

THe tourists here have always included many Asians from Turkey across India and to the Pacific rim, and I don’t see much of a change. The big surprise the past 2 years has been Spanish. Every conversation on every street corner seems to be in Spanish. But there were stories last year about more Europeans traveling within Europe. So not new, maybe just a greater uptick? Who knows.

Oh, I googled the quote above and only got one hit, this forum post.

"Kenko, can you please share link to source?"

I see links at Facebook and Instagram. I don't go there so you'd have to check it out.

https://www.facebook.com/PeterGreenbergWorldwide/posts/weve-had-eight-consecutive-months-of-a-decline-in-foreign-tourism-in-the-us/1405706411118524/

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DSbRljVjCFo/

This was one day ago:

https://www.facebook.com/PeterGreenbergWorldwide/videos/peter-greenbergs-live-global-travel-update-january-8-2026/2244940082661604/

A lot of European travelers Asian travelers and frankly Canadians. US tourism is down and frankly not even the World Cup can revive it. Personally I know a Canadian family who going to Europe instead of the US. Get ready for more crowds.

Revive from what? Domestic travel is very strong. The economy is strong. The US stock market was up 16% in 2025, which for those of us with retirement portfolios, is super positive. All World Cup tickets are sold out, except the now secondary markets. The labor market is better. Inflation is at a 12-month 2.7% rate.

The fact that international travel to the US is down is a problem? International travel to the US is down because people are choosing not to travel here. There are plenty of reasons people from the US could choose not to travel to Europe, but they don't. People in the US travel to Europe because of non-political reasons and that is a good thing.

Threadware, this makes travel in the US sound pretty strong. https://live.worldtourismforum.net/news/Catch-up-the-latest-news-in-tourism-industry/U-S-Tourism-Mobility-Domestic-Strength-Meets-New-Frictions-for-inbound-Travel and apparently World Cup Ticket sales have broken all the recrods: https://inside.fifa.com/organisation/media-releases/world-cup-2026-ticket-demand-breaks-all-records

I can't say I saw many empty seats on any of the eight flights I did in 2025 from France to the U.S.

Good that the World Cup is taking place here, in CA too, which makes it much easier for me to travel in Germany this, in spite of the weak or lousy dollar at the moment, $1.17 vis-a-vis the exchange rate last summer when I was there in high season, June and July in France and Germany.

Regardless, I'll be over there starting the morning of 27 May, (ticket already booked ) when the United overnight SFO flight lands at CDG.

Not concerned about hotels booked up , it's matter of tailoring your hotel sites re: room and the prices.

Kenko,

Thanks for sharing Peter Greenberg-- I watched a recent post of his on YouTube. Very interesting and he seems to be thoughtful and well informed.

Happy travels!

Kim, my flights were full too, but you and I dont know if they cut back on the number of flights to fill the planes. Eitherway, doesnt seem to be having much of an impact on the national economy. I went looking for Greenburg to and found a pod cast sort of video on Facebook. It might include the information posted, but the thing was an hour long and this guy just isnt the most entertaining chap alive. I lasted about 10 minutes and turned it off. Maybe the OP will come back with the source of the quote.

I was at a travel expo today and listened to Mr. Greenberg speak. He mentioned the less than full flights but not the hotel prices. As for the flights, in late August returning from Iceland there were 18 empty rows on our flight. 18!!!! I have not seen that in decades! Even the flight attendants were surprised that the flight was not cancelled. We head back pretty soon and the airfare was dirt cheap, the lowest we have ever paid. Our hotel was also very cheap, almost half the normal cost.

I heard Greenberg’s synopsis on a broadcast last week by the CBS radio affiliate in Los Angeles, KNX. Greenberg is CBS’ Travel Editor. He also said the U.S., for much of last year, was the only country in the world with declining numbers of international tourists. Greenberg said that during 2026, the hit to spending in the US by international travelers NOT VISITING the U.S,— a number previously forecast to hit $44 billion— is now forecast to top $65 billion. Greenberg said this is a huge loss in revenue that will not be recovered.
Not that international tourism cannot recover— but that the lost dollars to hotels, restaurants, taxi drivers, tour guides, attractions, etc—- will be income that is lost for good.

During 2024, International tourists spent about $254 billion in the U.S. on travel and travel-related services.

From what I read and hear I cannot understand why this guy is called an expert.

To sell a century-old no-brainer as wisdom that an unsold night or seat is a forever lost revenue seems very ncwcg [not compliant with community guidelines].

The statement that only the USA have less international guests is simply wrong by proven numbers, e. g. Germany Jan.-Oct. 2025: "... the number of overnight stays by guests from abroad fell by 2.3% to 71.5 million." (source). Best guess: European Soccer Championship 2024. So, check France with Olympics and Paralympics. Similar to some other countries from what I have read, e. g. Austria. In contrast, Italy will likely have higher numbers in 2025 caused by Holy Year, and so on ...

US travelers have different shares in European tourism markets, in average they are around 3 - 5%; and no European country lives only from tourism - in most cases it is below 7% of GDP, a few have 8-9%, very few higher.

Sorry, but for me the content of this thread is neither qualified nor quantified enough to discuss anything.

I flew back to the US last week. My flight was full.

The next day I flew domestically in the US. My flight was full.

In 2025, I flew between the US and Europe four times. Each flight was either full or nearly full. I also took numerous domestic flights. Most were full.

I also noticed that hotel prices both in Europe and the US are rising.

Someone's traveling.

Sorry, but for me the content of this thread is neither qualified nor
quantified enough to discuss anything.

But you did

For me the statement of in the title, if his words, is just alarmist over generalization. The last think I read was that US tourism is on around 10% of all tourism in Europe. So if it rises 10% because of cheap tickets thats a 1% increase. I wouldnt be surprised if another group or groups is down in the same year and the net is zero. Who knows? We just arent talking anything serious here. Hotel prices? Probably up in some locations, probably about the same as last year in others. Havent seen any skyrocketing. But if you got a job reporting the news and there really isnt much or you dont know how to open new insights, you say this kind of stuff. Still I thank the OP for posting it. The more input on any subject the healthier in general as it allows people to ask questions, learn, develop and sort the real from the less than real. All good. thank you sir.

Flight optimization software like Sabre makes (attempts) to maximize revenue for carriers by route and lane planning and that will lead carriers to add/remove flights, sizes of planes, adjust prices to gain more passengers and so on.

Most carriers’ optimization plans “pack” the planes. At any given time, cancellations, heavy or light booking can vary the experience on individual basises. It can be standing room only on one Sunday and as empty as a browns game for Monday football on a snowy late fall day!

Statistically 2025 was originally forecast to see in increase in US arrivals. There was a decrease from Europe. The decrease from Canada was even sharper.

Right now they are forecasting a modestly nice rebound in 2026 of US arrivals. Events can change that of course. I am poor at predicting the future— just as I (like others) am often poor at predicting the past. Ah, history is tricky indeed! Who knew that fascism would be popular again! (It’s was joke! A pretty darn good one but then some people have no sense of humor! Ah well, I predict an “edit” in my future!)

Peter Greenberg is a respected travel journalist. But headlines often are exaggerated for accuracy’s sake!

Happy travels.

“Fantastic “ prices is correct! 😱
I’m seeing flight prices clearly elevated from W. Canada to Europe for this year compared to last year….most about 25% more expensive.
Will I go?
What am I saving it for otherwise?
Hmmm.

I swear on a recent ThriftyTraveler pod, they talked about the post-pandemic golden age of cheap transatlantic flights was kinda winding down

…Not because of demand, but rather supply. They talked about how major carriers are moving larger portions of their widebody fleet to the Pacific.

You’ll still find deals, they say; particularly more “flash sales” as carriers emulate Delta. But the supply landscape is changing.

I’ll try to find the relevant quote

If Greenberg is accurate in his estimation that international tourism to the US will experience a definite conspicuous drop in 2026 , not surprising at all, is it?

This piece of news has no effect on my 9 week trip as to the budget earmarked to be spent over there, re: hotel reservations, train tickets, rail pass, the flight price after ca. 6-7 weeks monitoring that on United SFO-CDG since mid-Oct, when it was ca. $1400 r/t, doable but still a bit high, waited until the first couple of days in Dec when the piece had pleasantly dropped to $1130, r/t. which I booked on 2 Dec. for the end of May. This time waiting and patience paid off.