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Paying the Price

I thought this was an interesting article on the snowball effect of troubled times. https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/06/if-norwegian-cruise-line-goes-down-carnival-and-ro.aspx

It describes how Norwegian Cruise Lines is in trouble and it could cause trouble for the other cruise lines as well. I can see this happening in the airline industry as well. I know in the US that refunds are mandatory, but not so in Canada, and the EU airlines are pushing for vouchers instead of refunds. As airlines go down, their could be panic in that industry as well from consumers that accepted vouchers. What if a major hotel chain fails?

Posted by
1414 posts

These shipping lines have been cash cows for a long time. That they had no plan in place for such an emergency only shows how poor their leadership is. Shipboard epidemics are not new. Likewise these businesses are all registered outside of countries where they would have to pay taxes on their earnings, and the vessels are likewise registered/flagged so as to allow them to be staffed with personnel requiring minimal wages, benefits, and recourse to legal systems should something go wrong.

I cannot feel sorry to see bad business practices fail. What chaps me raw is watching governments bail out big businesses. That's taxpayer money going to corporations that will never be repaid.

Posted by
1131 posts

I don't think the hotels will be in such bad shape because they generally do not collect money in advance from their customers. (Yes, some do, but the major hotel chains you mention usually don't except for a few markets). I think the cruise lines got themselves into trouble by pre-spending those deposits before the actual cruise happened, and now they don't have the $$$ in the bank to refund customers for cancellations.

Posted by
2191 posts

I agree with KGC. I've done a little reading lately and I'm not sure if cruisers are aware of how nasty the cruise industry is. Sadly, I doubt many would change their habits if they did. Just give them cheap fares, lots of booze and a buffet.

Posted by
5525 posts

I know many people enjoy cruising but personally I wouldn't be sad to see the loss of many of the big behemoths descending on ports where the infrastructure is not designed to cope with their 'cargo'.

As for the airlines, I read this morning that IAG, of which British Airways and Iberia are part of, has access to a cash and other finances reserve of €10bn yet they have received over €700m of Spanish taxpayer money and are laying off thousands of staff. It's difficult not to feel disgust towards the big greedy corporations when they act like this.

Posted by
7053 posts

A lot of things in the travel industry are interlinked, so there will be downstream effects if one part fails. A future cruise passenger depends on airlines, car rentals, hotels, probably old school travel agents or other middleman, insurers, cruise employees, and an entire port infrastructure (shops, malls, restaurants/ food outlets, transportation links from the port, etc) to function well. If a major hotel chain in the US fails, there are several financial and tax tools that could be employed - including bankruptcy and restructuring, or private equity buying up an underperforming asset and loading it up with debt and then reselling it, etc. There will likely be even greater consolidation if that's what it takes to survive or maximize profits (that's why there are so many hotel brands governed under a larger umbrella now, when in the past they would be independently owned). Different businesses have different avenues of survival and different types of liquidity challenges. Cruise ships probably have huge fixed costs, so they're burning through money like crazy.

Posted by
5525 posts

A future cruise passenger depends on airlines, car rentals, hotels, probably old school travel agents or other middleman

Are 'cruisers' suddenly going to stop taking holidays if they can't cruise?

Most restaurants, bars etc in cruise destinations don't rely on cruise passengers because most don't frequent them as they will eat on board. In fact it can be argued that the mere presence of a huge cruise ship deters other people from visiting the town/city due to the increase in people, traffic etc. Those are the people that would be eating in restaurants and drinking in bars. The only winners are the port authorities who rake in the huge amounts paid by the cruise companies.

Posted by
3522 posts

There are also the local guides for the shore excursions booked through the cruise line. They do a considerable amount of business.

Posted by
7053 posts

There are also the local guides for the shore excursions booked
through the cruise line. They do a considerable amount of business.

That's a very good point. I don't cruise so I was thinking off the top of my head and trying not to forget anyone.

Posted by
11551 posts

I can’t imagine going on a cruise now. They are giant Petri dishes. I wonder how many will cruise before a vaccine is developed for the coronavirus.

Posted by
2916 posts

it can be argued that the mere presence of a huge cruise ship deters other people from visiting the town/city due to the increase in people, traffic etc.

I'm amused by that because of my experiences living here in a port city that has hosted more and more large cruise ships every year. During the summer and fall, if I have to do an errand that will take me down to the harbor area, I try to remember to first check if any cruise ships are in port. A couple of times I forgot to check and got stuck in horrible traffic; it was a combination of cruisers plus the usual summer tourism.

Posted by
3111 posts

We've enjoyed (more or less) cruises but I'll pass until there is a vaccine that has proven to work for several months. I'll let the pre-vaccine cruise passengers do the testing for me.

If you're vacationing at a port city it may be wise to know when the ships are docking and the tourist sites are flooded with humanity.

Posted by
5525 posts

There are also the local guides for the shore excursions booked through the cruise line. They do a considerable amount of business.

Again, it's not just cruisers who provide custom for the guides. Other tourists use them as well, one only has to look at any major city frequented by tourists that isn't a cruise destination to see that guides are in demand.

Huge cruise ships often drive away other tourists and I suspect most of the positives are far outweighed by the negatives.

No-one is saying that no money is made from cruise ship passengers but let's not be under any illusion that they're some sort of cash cow that the local economy relies upon.

Posted by
4505 posts

No-one is saying that no money is made from cruise ship passengers but
let's not be under any illusion that they're some sort of cash cow
that the local economy relies upon.

But the ships themselves are. Let's use a controversial Port like Venice. About 4500 people are employed directly by the Port. Thousands more are employed by the companies responsible for the supply chain of the ship for everything from food, booze, fuel and toiler paper.

Posted by
11294 posts

Are 'cruisers' suddenly going to stop taking holidays if they can't cruise?

Some will and some won't. But self- defined "cruisers" are different from "travelers." Those who use that term, positively, to describe themselves, often talk about how the ship itself is the destination, the "star" of their trip. While they (mostly) enjoy the ports, they really love the whole shipboard experience. Other kinds of travel are less enticing to them, and sometime, not enticing at all. If they do go anywhere else, it's places like Disney World and Las Vegas and all inclusive resorts - sort of like cruises that don't move. They wouldn't go to Europe, or for that matter Alaska or the like, on their own without a cruise.

Other people, of course, take cruises as only one of their travel options. But don't underestimate the passion cruisers have for cruising, as distinct from any other form of travel or holiday. If you doubt this, start watching cruise videos on YouTube. For me, as someone who's never taken a cruise, watching how they approach travel is like a different world, or a foreign language. Of course, I'm sure the way I travel is equally foreign to some.

Posted by
5525 posts

Harold. That may be the case for many who cruise. I have never undertaken one other than a cross channel 'booze cruise' and I don't see the attraction but it's easy for me to see that any void the cruise ships leave can be filled by other tourists. A prime example was my holiday to Kotor last August. We stayed in a villa across the bay from the Old Town and witnessed almost daily assults by the huge cruise ships. At first we visited the town at the same time but what should have been a ten minute drive took over an hour (the roads were far from suitable for walking either, particularly with inattentive children!). Once we managed to find a parking space and made our way through the throngs of people wandering the streets we could walk on a bit further and find the quieter parts of town and locate a restaurant for lunch.

After a few days of this hassle we stopped visiting the town when the ships were in and only ventured there on the occasional days when there were no ships docked. What was interesting to note was that the fruit and vegatable market on the dock was much busier on the days when there were no ships docked. It goes without saying that cruise tourists are not interested in buying fresh fruit and veg from a market whereas the locals and those staying in self catering holiday rentals were but the hassle of getting to the market often meant it was easier to visit a supermarket chain on the outskirts.

Sure, there are some large companies that do well supplying huge amounts of supplies to the ships when they're docked but I'm more concerned about the smaller, independent tradespeople who suffer as a result of the stifling impact of thousands of people descending on a small place at once. The town was not bereft of tourists when there were no ships docked, in fact the restaurants were trading well and the only ones that appeared to experience a downturn in trade were the trinket sellers and ice cream vendors concentrated around the gates to the town.

After last years experience I have vowed never to stay anywhere that is popular with cruise ships, they are an absolute menace.