Odds of catching coronavirus on plane relatively small, study finds

what do they say?

One article says

Barnett approached it mathematically, calculating the odds of becoming
infected while flying, and came up with this: There is a one in 4,300
chance of catching COVID-19 while flying on a full two-hour flight and
a one in 7,700 chance if the airline leaves the middle seat open.

Barnett also calculated that the odds of dying from catching the virus
while flying is about one in 600,000 for healthy people and about one
in 400,000 for people who are older and/or suffer from other health
concerns.

The other two articles are more general but similar in position. All horribly subjective, only posted as being interesting and relevant to travel. I have no opinion.

does it show the calculation or just stick with "he calculated"?

The way it spread around the world was by people flying

Outwardly it appears it was spread by plane, but really it spread was by infected people going place to place, including from country to country. Some took airplanes.

This was before health specialists understood what was happening and put protocols in place.

Chances of transmission are probably lowered now compared to February and March, but it's still a shot in the dark.

I'm glad that the flight I'm taking soon requires a PCR test and results (not a less-reliable antigen test) within 72 hours before check-in. No test and results means no boarding. Not 100% safe due to the 72 hour time lapse, but better than nothing.

Still the advice is to avoid being around people in indoor spaced. A metal tube is an indoor space, though with good filtering systems.

Yeah well some airlines are not leaving Nd seats open anymore and to get to Europe for us is a 10-12 hour flight , so I don’t like those numbers

I still dread flying cross country again at the end of the summer. The passengers did not mind the flight attendants, ignored the rules for deplaning. It was a total scrum! People on top of each other, pushing, shoving, a nightmare the end of June on American Airlines.

The way it spread around the world was by people flying

It was spread around the world by infected people travelling to another place and infecting those they came in close contact with, without taking any health precautions.

I've never seen any documented proof of COVID being spread to other pax on a flight, although that certainly may have happened early in the pandemic.

I'm satisfied with the low risk, given the current precautions most airlines are now taking. Which is why we will fly to a resort for our winter break instead of going on a cruise.

However well fly premium economy or business class to ensure greater separation during the flight.

We had our third flight since May yesterday. At least on AlaskaAir, people seem to be getting the hang of this. Passengers observed social distancing and mask wearing in the boarding area, Alaska still keeps the middle seat open unless it’s a family and, best of all, people waited to get up when we landed until the row ahead was moving out. So good to see.

There are almost daily reports on the local news here about Covid exposures that are occurring on flights in & out of Vancouver. There were a number of flights affected today - https://bc.ctvnews.ca/more-flights-in-and-out-of-vancouver-added-to-covid-19-exposure-warning-list-1.5073011 .

While the risks may be relatively small, an environment with people in close proximity has to be more risky (even where masks are worn). I believe the airlines here are now selling the middle seats, so it's back to "sardine class" here. Given the possible consequences of contracting Covid, I'm not sure I'm ready to set foot on a plane yet.

Most studies like this are a waste of time. And the studies noted were so small they are ridiculous.

No one can predict who will sit near you.. If the people sitting near you are healthy, your odds are even better that you will stay safe. If someone near you has the virus, your chances of getting it has increased. And the sad part about it is the person carrying the virus may not even know it or have symptoms. So you think you're safe.

What I don't understand on this board is the need to justify what you are doing to strangers? If you want to fly somewhere, get on the plane. If you want to take a check in bag, do so. If you want to stay in an American chain hotel in Europe rather than a Rick Steves recommended hotel, go ahead. It's nobodies business but your own.

Many things we do in life involve risks.

You don't go outside and stand on a hill during a lightening storm. You don't drink water from a tap in third world countries.

Just getting into your car and driving on our highways involves a risk. About 39,000 people die and many more are seriously injured every year in the USA.

COVID-19 clearly has risks, especially for older people and people with underlying conditions. Still, the fatality rate for people my age with no underlying conditions is a fraction of one percent. The seasonal flu will routined kill more than the auto accident numbers.

I have had two friends that had the virus and one was hardly sick at all. The other had to be in the hospital for a few days, but did recover. I have a history of hardly ever getting sick, even a common cold. I retired from the Federal Government after 30 years of service using only 13 days of sick leave in 30 years and some of that was for dental appointments.
Still, I am not seeking to catch COVID-19. I have no idea how it would affect me.

We are looking forward to traveling next year. Hoping for a vaccine, so travel will be possible. Even without a vaccine, if travel opens up, we will venture out. I still won't stand on a hill during a lightening storm.

I just flew round-trip domestically weekend before last. The plane was packed on all four legs. Middle seats were not left open. No one had symptoms on the plane but we had to wear masks (and in the airport). We're not sick now.

Of course I already had it in March. I don't expect to catch it again. I'm otherwise healthy so even if I did catch it, it doesn't scare me.

These are interesting reports, but such risk calculations are unlikely to change peoples minds. Its the perception of risk, rather than the actual risk to which people react, and that perception is what airlines will have to overcome (just like the 737 Max). But it also confirms that the greatest reducer of risk is not having a positive person on the flight. So the big payoff is in preventing positive people from boarding. Other countries are investing in, and depending on, the screening process. I dont think we've (US) decided how the responsibility for that should be shared between airlines and airports, and customers.

the flight I'm taking soon requires a PCR test and results (not a less-reliable antigen test) within 72 hours before check-in.

Do you expect to be able to get your test result back 72 hours before your flight? Recently, a whole bunch of people from out of state arrived at a heavily touristed area in Maine and got back positive test results. They apparently got tested in their home state before they left, and expected to get their result w/in the 72 hour window, but did not. On the other hand, our neighbors' daughter and her boyfriend recently drove up from Florida, did some kind of in-home test, send it to a lab by Fedex, and got the result (negative) before they started their drive. So how do you guarantee a timely test?

You don't go outside and stand on a hill during a lightening storm. You don't drink water from a tap in third world countries.

You don't tug on Superman's cape. You don't spit into the wind; you don't pull the mask off the old Lone Ranger, and you don't mess around with Jim.

Not all tests are equally accurate. Shouldn't be long before we see fake test results available online.

Robert— getting the results within 72 hours has been very difficult and has created quite a commotion among the citizens flying back for vacation or moving back. It was decreed July 27 to start August 1.

The French consulate in NY found a lab In NJ and four doctors in the region. The DC consulate has a few listings. I have found one lab 90 minutes from our house and yet another near Dulles Airport that will produce results as quickly as 24 hours for $$$, 48 hours for $$, and 72 hours for $. If we don’t make the 72 hours, we’ll be starting all over but also paying for a hotel in our gateway city.
Air France is working with people who can’t make the deadline.
Additionally, the government has now spelled out that it has to be the PCR and not the quick, less reliable antigen test.
Finally, the situation changes constantly, and I expect it will get even more difficult once the vacation period is over. We are waiting for some sort of government announcement around the time school starts. Cases are rising; anything could happen.

Some trips require that you arrive with a PCR test less than 72 hours old. One country requires two PCR tests at least 48 hours apart not more than 5 days before arrival.

All doable as long as they will accept looking at your email on your phone. But what if you fail? Then either refusal to enter or quarantine.

I'm going to take the antigen test along with the PCR test, then another prior to boarding. Best I can think of. The antigen tests here are advertised to be 100% accurate with Positive results and 80% with negative results. Not that bad.

Here's another article on the subject - https://globalnews.ca/news/7288950/marc-garneau-aviation-safety-coronavirus/ .

If highly regarded experts aren't prepared to set foot on a plane at the present time, that's a bit of a concern. As the article points out, there are numerous other places besides the aircraft where an infection could happen, such as in the airport, during the check-in process, etc.

In this article, I read the experts saying they weren't doing non-essential flying, not that they wouldn't step foot on a plane. The experts in the article also said the risk was low but not as low as the Minister said. Finally, they said it is difficult to determine where a person picks up an infection because it could be in these other areas rather than in an airplane.