Median Coronavirus Incubation Period Is 5.1 Days

It means on my upcoming 12 day trip I will have to duck and weave for 7 days, then lay back and enjoy. Drat!

The average incubation period was found to be 5.1 days.

Is the median the same figure as the average in this case (meaning both are 5.1)? You used the two words interchangeably but they can be different depending on the shape of the distribution.

median is just as many less as more. So, a 14 day quarantine is overkill. I know, we should be 100% sure, but I imagine that 3 weeks. And what about carriers that exhibit no symptoms. This is impossible. Give up on the masses and divert care to quarantining high risk individuals.

Well, James E. What if you get infected five or six days before you go? You might have to do a duck and fall. 🤧😷.

acraven, you just keep finding more info. But your stats came out on some news updated a couple of days ago. Someone on one of the many forum thread also quoted the 5.1 day stat.
You are such a good researcher!

Median is technically not the math average of a sequence of numbers. It is the middle. But for this discussion I would treat it as an average.

Good point. I am going to a country with 12 cases. The hospital still has room for me. Oh, and its socialized health care so it's better than the US, almost as good as Cuba and Venezuela.

I think journal articles usually are released ahead of time, and certainly this one should have been, given its import. I had seen the 5-day figure, but didn't know the source.

I assume the median, rather than the mean, was chosen here because it was thought best for this purpose. My last statistics class was about 45 years ago, so I'm not going to comment further!

If the median is 5.1 days then the max could be 10.2 days. That assumes a standard distribution.

Add in extra time to develop symptoms.

But as the paper says, those are estimates only. There could be longer incubation periods, especially as the virus mutates.

Also note this:

Publicly reported cases may overrepresent severe cases, the incubation period for which may differ from that of mild cases.

In short, they are still making educated guesses.

So you could go on a trip, get infected, and get back and infect others before you know anything bad is happening.

And there lies the problem.

I think that after spring break is when we will see more cases in the US.

Ginger, a few hours ago I looked up spring break schedules thinking the same as you. I was amazed to see some are as far out as mid April. I’m afraid of what these kids will bring back to all of us!

If you don’t trust the CDC, then do what the WHO recommends
PLEASE CHECK for UPDATES https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak

Protection measures for persons who are in or have recently visited (past 14 days) areas where COVID-19 is spreading
Follow the guidance outlined above. [ this was the usual list of hand washing and not sneezing on other people]
Stay at home if you begin to feel unwell, even with mild symptoms such as headache and slight runny nose, until you recover. Why? Avoiding contact with others and visits to medical facilities will allow these facilities to operate more effectively and help protect you and others from possible COVID-19 and other viruses.
If you develop fever, cough and difficulty breathing, seek medical advice promptly as this may be due to a respiratory infection or other serious condition. Call in advance and tell your provider of any recent travel or contact with travelers. Why? Calling in advance will allow your health care provider to quickly direct you to the right health facility. This will also help to prevent possible spread of COVID-19 and other viruses.

Recommendations for international traffic
WHO continues to advise against the application of travel or trade restrictions to countries experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks.
In general, evidence shows that restricting the movement of people and goods during public health emergencies is ineffective in most situations and may divert resources from other interventions. Furthermore, restrictions may interrupt needed aid and technical support, may disrupt businesses, and may have negative social and economic effects on the affected countries.
Travel measures that significantly interfere with international traffic may only be justified at the beginning of an outbreak, … restrictions must be based on a careful risk assessment, be proportionate to the public health risk, be short in duration, and be reconsidered regularly as the situation evolves.

Recommendations for international travellers
It is prudent for travellers who are sick to delay or avoid travel to affected areas, in particular for elderly travellers and people with chronic diseases or underlying health conditions.
General recommendations for personal hygiene, cough etiquette and keeping a distance of at least one metre from persons showing symptoms remain particularly important for all travellers.

Quoting the report, “ The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection.”

The confidence intervals are important, and with this small quantity of data, it’s stating that 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within a range of 8.2 to 15.6 days. When something is high risk, either we need more data to give a tighter distribution, or we have to go with the worst case. In the info above, it would be going with 15.6 days.

And median is just the middle: 100 people standing in a line from shortest to tallest. The 50th person is 5’ 4” tall. This is never an indication of the average until more info is known. Person number 51-100 could all be 6’ 8” tall.

If the median is close to the average in a set of data, just the average is stated. Only when the data has a long tail of data -either grouped towards the left or right does the median become an important point to state.

By the way, I just had a dear older friend from my former state of Washington test positive for the virus. My concerns are exposing our older generation.

We have about 20 +s in our state (Vic. Aus) at the moment. Containment seems the current goal. Self isolating for 14 days if coming in near contact with a known + is recommended.
This seems to be practical at the moment but will have potential for big social and economic impacts.
Is that sustainable? Over time unless it appears very successful non compliance will become an issue.
Perhaps at some point the strategy needs to become actual quarintine/ isolation of the most vulnerable?

Ginger, yes, spring break and the aftermath will be interesting.

As for self-isolation, well that won't work for hourly employees who don't get paid if they miss work.

Hubby's employees dont get sick leave? Thats barbaric!

My friend is a college professor and her school is voting today on changing spring break to next week instead of April...I'm sure they think this will be helpful in some way.

If you know that I have been to Italy recently you will keep your distance from me, and me, out of respect will keep my distance from you for the first few weeks. Then, watch out, here comes the bear hug. The chance of transmission is low under those circumstances.

If you purchase hand sanitizer and masks on Amazon, when the box arrives, rip it open and pull them out. Now understand that anyone of a dozen or more people with coronavirus could have sneezed on the box, the packing materials or the product inside the box.

Which was higher risk? The Amazon package or me?

Of course if you follow the CDC guidelines you will cut your odds of getting sick in both scenarios.

My humble opinion is that isolation of the infected is impossible. Isolation of the healthy but compromised at least has some chance of success.

My humble opinion is that isolation of the infected is impossible. Isolation of the healthy but compromised at least has some chance of success.

You’ll never achieve 100% isolation. But you may get 90% and that will slow things down. It will also reduce the number of exposures.

Isolation is a worthy exercise.