Is Shoulder Season A Thing Of The Past?

I think it is changing and for some US areas, yes, Covid travel had a big impact. I go to Yellowstone at least once yearly, sometimes twice. During Covid I was astounded at the crowds by Sept 2020 and in to October. Schools were operating remotely so it allowed parents with kids to travel when they previously could not. The issue there is that "off season" is a concrete time with roads closed and winter weather to deal with so I feel like there is now Open season and Closed season. The Shoulder seasons there have compressed to a couple of weeks of very iffy weather and few services being open. That used to be the time that locals, who could plan last minute trips to the park based on weather, could visit pretty easily. Not so much now.

In Europe....it may be going to the same thing, depending on your country of choice. Bets posted this thread in the France forum last week with a discussion about Paris, crowds, lines, etc.

https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/france/is-october-less-crowded

I'm a planner so would never be one to wing it and travel without reservations as some are comfortable with. I want decent weather (no hot months) so I'll just go when it works for me whether there are crowds or not.

I do think you're right, and there are probably a number of factors, including:

-Speaking of Europe, the explosion of intra-European travel, especially 20 years of growth in the "city-break" market, fueled by low-cost airlines.
-Emerging middle classes from developing or now-developed economies that might not have the same calendar cycles as Western Europe and North America
-The ranks of traveling retirees growing through with the baby boomer demographic bell
-Parents are increasingly willing to take kids out of school for travel, either because of limitations to their own schedules or trying to take advantage of what's left of a 'shoulder' or 'low' season. (there was a NYTimes story about this last week.)

Thanks Pam! I hadn't wandered into the France section lately, but that post is EXACLY what I have been seeing.

Folks are out in force in the US and Europe at times I would not expect them to be. We haven't really changed our habits as we've almost always been mainly shoulder season folks, but seeing the lines and also the vibrancy of crowds out and about while traveling in both spring and fall shoulder periods, I wonder if it is a passing thing (pent-up COVID travel fading eventually) or a true swing to what to expect and plan around going forward.

I replied to a similar question here last week. I mentioned that when I was a teacher I often longed for the ability to travel when so many other people weren't traveling (or so I thought)--namely in the fall or early spring. When I stopped teaching during Covid and went into a different job, I was looking forward to traveling whenever I wanted in the year (if I could get the time), vs during school vacations. But now it seems as though fall and spring are just as popular. So my question was, sort of tongue in cheek, how is Europe in January? Granted, if you want to go to a warm weather place, then those places are popular then too.

Hi Tom

I only have traveled shoulder season and usually from US ports.

In October, I went to London and then sailed Southampton to Lisbon.

Ports and excursions were crowded to very crowded. Lisbon was in the very crowded category. London was comfortable as far as crowds went.

Shoulder season has been getting a lot of publicity on TV, ads and even R S. ie. "here is how to save money when traveling and avoid the crowds"/?????. No longer.

There were a lot of young people on my cruise so perhaps their schools are on. a different schedule or they are home schooled. I know that some parochial and private schools have different schedules than the public schools.

I think shoulder season as you once knew it is over. .

Personally, I'm single and travel solo with a lot of accumulated leave to the point that I'm always in a use it or lose it situation each year. And weather does not concern me or impact how I travel. So to me there's no out of season.

Wrapping up a UK trip at the moment and except for this past Saturday's crowds at Borough Market & the V&A the crowds have been very thin where I've visited. The week before the Mary Rose and Weald and Downland museums were also rather peaceful.

My impressions of travel though is that

When it gets into the cooler or colder months most folks still seem to want to go to warm places or beach vacations and they're using up leave for it and those with kids are shoehorning trips into school winter/spring break schedules.

Again those with families are also tied to school summer breaks and that is when they'll travel to those places perceived as being cold and dreary off season.

Winter vacations are also in demand; especially the Holiday season with Xmas Markets and Concerts etc. In January/February it is the Snow Resorts for Winter Sports and Luxury Spa Visits. I think that Covid made people know that they have only one life to Live. I still hope that there are great places that are not on everyone's Bucket List. I do Genealogy which leads me to places I never heard of till now. It has been a great way to make History real for me.

The thought that the former “shoulder season” is now high season and what was “high season” is now unbearable has merit. In Scandinavia this year, late September and early October was plenty busy. In terms of crowds, it wasn’t shoulder season, but several museums and other sights were either closed for the season, or had very reduced hours. So, at least in parts of Denmark and Norway, the destinations still observe tourism seasons, even if crowds don’t seem to reflect true demand and popularity.

Italy the previous two years was also very busy n September and October. I’d hate to experience July or August nowadays. Maybe there are less-crowded places, but for the popular “prime” locations, there doesn’t seem to be shoulder season.

We’ll see in France next year, July and August. The Tour de France happens in July, so seeing it live means no shoulder season is a possibility.

People: Location, location, location.

The Wall Street Journal just posted a story on airfares going down on many - not all - routes to Europe as demand slows mildly but additional supply (new routes) comes on line.

I think folks are noticing things have changed with travel. This summer was bonkers and lots was written about it. My recent travel and the thread in the France section show that many others are seeing it now as well, and it's not just a summer/high season thing.

To some extent, I think anyone who posts or reads the RS forums is hyper-alert to travel in general, and certainly our news aggregators will provide a feedback loop, so we read about travel, and are fed more travel news. But, I also think my (and others) boots-on-the-ground experiences are showing that times have changed, and a lot remains to be seen if it is a permanent change, a blip that goes away, or somewhere in the middle.

To me, it makes perfect sense that as the airlines, hotels, cruise lines, museums, ski resorts, etc. add capacity, it is in their best interest to utilize that capacity year round, and they will market it as much as makes sense to them to get butts in seats. Towns and cities like the revenue (not the crowds) and like having the locals employed year around. That, though, tests us (the travelers) because it does mean more folks at sites and while maybe less expensive, not more enjoyable.

I like the saying, "You're not in traffic, you ARE traffic" as it also applies to tourists and complaining about crowds. We are the crowds we are frustrated by.

We'll see. Nothing stays the same.

Whatever Happened to the Off-Season?

“Booking shoulder season was once travel’s best-kept secret, but more people are catching on to the trend,” said Matt Berna, the president for the Americas of Intrepid Travel, a global tour company. He said fall and spring bookings this year have grown by 56 and 70 percent, respectively, compared to prepandemic business, inspiring the company to increase its departures to meet the demand.
The river cruise line AmaWaterways has done the same, adding new itineraries for November and February.
G Adventures, which offers small-group trips, said bookings by Americans are up 40 percent this year over 2019. When summer trips in Italy sell out, travelers are bound to look deeper into the calendar, said Steve Lima, the vice president of growth for the U.S. and Latin America for G Adventures.

With rare exception, I’ve always traveled shoulder, but it’s become so crowded everywhere I’ve gone in the past couple of years that I’m now going to become a winter traveler.

No, the shoulder seasons are not going away .... i dont think They might be changing a bit from location to location but for Europe in general things continue as they always have.

I found the statistics. The European Arrivals curve over the year is nearly identical in 2019, 2022 and 2023 (data is to July so unless something wild happens in the last two quarters).

The total numbers of European Arrivals are still below 2019. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1229666/monthly-change-in-tourist-arrivals-in-europe-coronavirus/

Of course, thats just travel to Europe from outside of Europe. I guess travel amongst European ciuntries could be different, but dont know why.

People didn't travel in August because they love the heat, they did it because of work restraints or because of kids in school. The world is getting younger, more kids in school not fewer. People who had the ability to travel anytime of the year generally did it when the weather was better. I can not see that changing and never really saw it as a "secret". Plenty of websites with the weather and the people who travel to Europe are generally well educated enough to know how to choose the best time for their life circumstances.

Going -off season is a myth. The ICE trains were just as packed as those in the summer. Other nationalities travel off-season too, not only Americans believing in seeing few crowds.

I went twice in Oct on short trips. Both times not enjoyable, even though one trip was more tolerable than the other. My conclusion is the same based on these 2 short October trips: not worth doing again.

It is a trade-off , pros vs. cons. In spite of it all, I much prefer summer travel in Europe, always went in the summer, ie, mid-May to mid-Sept. My next trip in the planning stages now, researching, etc is set for mid- May 2024 going into June and July.

Fred, I grew up in South Texas so Europe in August is a chance for cooler weather.

But part of travel that I have enjoyed is the differences in destinations at different time of the year. And the festivals and events at different times of the year. Google August Festivals in Europe and know what you will never see or experience if you never travel in August. This year, for the first time, I was in Budapest for St. Stephens's Day in August. I regret not being there every year. Probably the single best couple of days all year to be in the city. And a fireworks show that rivals Sydney's NYE show.

And I dont know why European travel habits would be substantially more flexible in timing than US travel habits so I still suspect the shoulders haven't changed by and large. I did read that tourism in general was up in the some of the major tourist cities like London and Paris and Rome, but Europe as a whole probably wont top 2019 levels. But we wait and see.

@ Mister E....South Texas means San Antonio, where I visited the very first time in August of 1976, 90+ F along with 90% humidity. It was a shocker for me coming from SF, still most of Europe is not 90F all the time.

Still, I've been in Paris at that temperature and Vienna too. It's a broiler.

Going -off season is a myth. The ICE trains were just as packed as
those in the summer.

I would in fact expect ICE trains to be more crowded outside of the summer holidays than during the summer holidays. The main purpose of trains in Europe is not to move holiday makers, but to move people going about their daily business. So trains tend to be less crowded during the summer, and some railways will even reduce their schedules.

Don't forget Europe is not a theme park :-)

In the Bernese Oberland we do see the shoulder season disappearing. Especially Asian tourists seem to be completely unaware of European seasons, and so people are still arriving here in Wengen, only to discover that everything is closed. So the local tourist industry is looking at ways to extend the season. I have heard from people working at the Wengen - Männlichen cable car the the plan is to have a shorter Fall maintenance break in 2024, and no longer a Spring break from 2025 onwards...

@wengen - I definitely have seen that sort of stretch/open the season happening in many mountainous areas across the US as well. With a LOT of money invested in lifts and other infrastructure, places in the US are realizing what works for winter (ski season) and summer (hiking season) works well for spring & fall too, where you can still be out and about enjoying the scenery as long as you pack properly to have options no matter the weather.
I've found that - while still not perfect - the ability to plan trips to places where there are dramatic seasonal schedule shifts has become easier due to the internet and even crowd sourcing of info. Years ago, on a trip to the Dolomites, I think half the gondolas/lifts were operating and the other half closed. Ahead of time, we had no idea which were open. We were lucky enough it was the lifts we needed that were running, but vague information from guidebooks (often inaccurate) was all we had to go on at the time. Now, at least, you can generally get that info straight from the tourism websites themselves or even ask here for pretty quick answers.
If it's easier for me, I have to assume it is easier for many folks, and that means more folks might make the jump to travel feeling more confident in their plans.

When I say that the ICE trains, it seemed to me , in that short October trip were just as crowded, I mean they might have been even more so, ie, I saw no lessening of the crowds, even on an ICE night route I took. I recall distinctly crowded ICE trains. This factor, among many others, is incentive for me to do my traveling in Germany in the summer, not during the so-called shoulder season.

Tom, I saw this news release from Yellowstone that made me think of your question about shoulder season!

"MAMMOTH HOT SPRINGS, WY – Yellowstone National Park hosted 299,127 recreation visits in October 2023. This is a 26% increase from October 2022 (236,567 recreational visits). It is also a 75% increase from October 2019 (171,339 recreational visits) when several short-term, weather-related road closures likely impacted visitation. So far in 2023, the park has hosted 4,446,509 recreation visits, up 37% from 2022 (3,241,761 recreation visits), and up 12% from 2019 (3,979,154 recreation visits)."

https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/news/23040.htm?fbclid=IwAR1btNb37NAQokO1Xkwf3Xgtekk3lL6yN5OVDmLhWoLqn9S2VVrItlnqpJM

The visitor statistics reflect that 2021 was still ahead for the whole season. 2022 overall was an outlier due to the flood damage and park closures.

Your experience with the ski lifts in the Dolomites in the past is interesting and yes, so much easier now to find out up to date information online!

@pam - the new saying from the past several years is "The US National Parks...we're loving them to death." :(
As a HUGE National Park fan and visitor of them many times a year to camp, I've seen them just explode in popularity and use. Sadly, that means places like Yellowstone, Zion, Yosemite, or other top 10 parks are overrun, and forced into trying to fulfill their mandate of being our public treasures but also preserving them for the future. Things like a timed-entry system are often being tried out, but those come with their own issues and negative impacts - especially on the least advantaged segment of our population that already is under-represented in usage.
I love travel. I love being out in nature or out in new (or familiar) foreign places or quaint corners of the US, but I realize there are so many folks like me, that sustainability is a real issue. Shoulder season used to let me travel with fewer fellow tourists around me, and help (perhaps) local economies during periods when things slowed down a bit, but that may be permanently changed - good or bad.

I've actually mused on the crowding of the shoulder season thing for a while.

First generation widely aware of "shoulder season" as a thing the Baby Boomers? Big generation, relatively well-off, mostly retired now, travelling a lot ... growth of shoulder season travel probably driven by Boomers?

Whatever the case, when I can travel to Europe whenever, not just around school schedules, it will for sure be in the shoulder season.

I read most of this yesterday. I don't remember if anyone mentioned the fact that some people are still working remotely, so maybe some are on the road, or working part time while spending time abroad.

Well. If the shoulder seasons are fading away, it has nothing to do with the tourists coming from outside Europe because the statistics for arrivals in Europe on the shoulder season are still below prepademic levels.

So work and kids in school and all the other previous limitations must not apply to Eurpeans on holiday in Europe any longer .... if indeed the shoulders are more crowded this year. For instance, of the 40 million visitors expected in Paris this year, 25 million are French, and other Europeans make up about 10 million.

Of course, this is the first real tourism year since covid, so nothing is definitive until it repeats a few more times. A little early to proclaim anything.

@mister e - statistics pre, during, and post COVID are going to be very interesting as 2023 seems like the first FULL post-COVID year, so will the momentum gain, plateau, or drop - to me - remains in the air. 2024, 2025, and beyond remain for us to think about.
Other things beyond just the top level numbers will be interesting - ie not just "how many folks went to Paris" but "where did they go, how long did they stay, and how much did they spend" sorts of question.
Regardless, maybe the "numbers" won't reflect the "perceptions", since there may have also been a shift in what folks feel is crowded or over-booked.