If you will be fully vaccinated, how are you thinking about international travel this spring/summer?

I am vaccinated and it’s easy for me to patiently wait for the virus to be under much better control before I travel. I’m older and really want to travel while I still can, but I don’t want to jump through hoops for ever changing testing requirements, surges in cases, what country might be open only to shut down, nor do I want to fight for limited tickets for sites that may or may not be open during my travels.

So, no international travel for us this year.

Traveling to Europe in 2021 is likely to still be risky because your desired country could impose a lockdown at any time, even for vaccinated visitors. Another user just reported she had to cancel her May trip to France because the lockdown there was just reinstated.

For cities and towns that relied heavily on tourism, I think that tourist (and their dollars) will be greatly welcomed. Especially if you are being respectful of local guidelines and still being covid cautious. It’s important to look into the covid situation in the country you want to visit as well and make sure you wouldn’t be a further burden on their system if there is the very unlikely chance you get severely sick. I’ve also been struggling with this dilemma as I’m to be fully vaccinated by the beginning on May. However, I am leaning more towards it being okay to travel to countries that are open and welcoming tourist if you are vaccinated and take covid precautions because in the end there are a lot of countries’ economies that are really hurting with the dip in tourism and it makes the most sense for those with the lowest risk get back to traveling to help these economies. It’s just important to be aware and adjust your vacation accordingly to include covid safe activities and avoid being indoor mask less (ie eating indoors).

I'm a nurse and got vaccinated in December. We had a trip planned to Austria and Germany for the Christmas Markets Dec 2021 (we go every other year) -- but we have canceled and postponed till Dec 2022. While, the USA is moving along with vaccinations, the EU isn't and they are way behind - you can read recent posts here from those in Germany. When we notified our hotels in Austria and Germany that we are canceling for 2021, even they said we did the right thing by postponing till 2022. IF the borders open, there will be SO MANY restrictions, that we wouldn't be happy. We don't want to be the first ones over there when the borders open and we don't want to wear masks and deal with closures and 'numbered tickets' to enter places. We love to eat and drink Gluwein as we walk around and I can't imagine that happening. We don't want to have tons of restrictions with the amount of money we will spend. We did book Jackson Hole in December 2021 instead, so at least we have something to look forward to.

The Netherlands hopes to have one shot in every Adult by July, the UK September. So anything to Europe prior to that isn’t happening. And I doubt Europe is gonna swing the doors right open to foreign non European tourists. It will be in stages first opening up businesses for locals then nationally then other EU:Schengen counties then America. That will take months. I’ll be surprised if I can visit Europe before Halloween.

Since I don't travel to Europe to sit on a beach or do a lot of rural hiking (the latter for physical reasons, not so much lack of interest), I am very concerned about the situation with respect to indoor sights. It may very well be the case that a bunch of the more tourism-dependent countries would welcome me (with my second vaccination on Feb 12) fairly soon, but what sort of capacity controls will there be on museums and historic sights? Some such places are very small, and they might judge it impossible to maintain social distancing and remain closed even as larger spots reopen for limited visitation.

I'm waiting until things really do reopen in the countries I'm hoping to visit and I can figure out how easy it will be to obtain entrance, their local vaccination rates increase, and their rates of infection fall before I make any specific plans.

I'll be paying attention to news about local views on international visitors, but I'm guessing that is not going to be a big issue, because I won't be going anywhere with local travel restrictions, etc.

A family member whose career was in diplomacy recently told me that China will open in 2023 with a one-month imposed quarantine. A dash of reality.

It's impossible to predict what is going to happen later this year. Some countries are already open. Others will open when they are ready. What I am doing is planning trips without dates. I'm doing my research to see what sites I want to visit and where I prefer to stay along with backups. When I actually know when I am able to travel, I will then look at flights, hotels, pre-planned activities, etc. (There are some on this board who believe they must plan their flights at least nine months ahead of time. I'm not one of them.) Since I will already know where I want to stay, what flights I would prefer, and what activities are of interest to me, it won''t take long to lock it all in.

Here are my criteria for travel:

1) The country must be open to U.S. passport holders.

2) Restaurants, tourism sites, hotels, must be open. (No lockdowns.)

3) Vaccination rates and the rates of the virus must be much lower than they are today.

The use of masks, some social distancing, and continually cleaning hands are something I am willing to live with for a long time.

What is happening today does not relate to what will happen tomorrow. The more a country can vaccinate, the better off it will be.

I plan on redeeming my AA miles for RT flights to Rome as soon as flights are available for April 2022. Every reservation I make will be fully refundable.

Maybe we won't get to go, but at least we will have something tangible to anticipate.

And yes, I am profoundly grateful that I have a future to look forward to.

I am fully vaccinated but I would not waste my time thinking about spring or summer travel. Europe is turning into a mess, their vaccination program is not going at all well and they are having new lock downs. Spring is here and summer is virtually the day after tomorrow. I have grave worries about my fall plans that are the reschedule from last year. Look at Rick's tour schedule, there is nothing before the end of August and then you can only get on a list and they will notify you IF it is going to happen.

The Netherlands hopes to have one shot in every Adult by July, the UK September.

The UK is well ahead of that schedule, The Netherlands far behind. The Netherlands are experiencing an increase in infections, the UK continues on a downward trend. Much work has gone on behind the scenes to ensure that US & UK travel can resume as soon as practicable and likely by the beginning of July. There is more than tourist money at stake so efforts to open up travel between the two countries remains a top priority. As things stand the US and UK are fully on track to be open to travel between each other way before other countries.

I think Frank II has excellent points and criteria for European travel.

I also have family in the UK and they are telling me not to come this summer. They have all had one dose of the AZ this month and expect to get their second dose in June. There are still many, many, restrictions in place.
I will be waiting to see what the summer of 2022 looks like, which will be three years that I have not seen family. In the meantime, I am enjoying traveling in the US.

Margaret

Just because my hubby and I are vaccinated, I'm not willing to get on a plane with unvaccinated people, fly to Europe where vaccinations are mostly below the US rate and herd immunity is not met in either, then find much of what I want to see and do is closed or limited. To me the risk is higher than the reward to travel this year. I'm thinking fall 2022 at best and probably spring 2023. My cue will be when RS schedules tours, not just "notify me". Tours are included in two out of four of my proposed itineraries. While everything is changeable and independent travel as option for two trip, it gives me a time-to-travel baseline. As I get older and achier I get more anxious about not being able to do what I want, but my common sense says wait. At this point I'm not willing to change what I want to do for what I can do.

Edit: News this morning was reporting another new "double" variant that may be vaccine resistant. Stay tuned to infection rates, hospitalization rates and death rates...

Your personal status as far as being vaccinated is irrelevant. As long as there is still widespread illness, there will likely be restrictions on where and what you can do. Watch the infection, hospitalization, and death rates, not the percent of vaccinations. We all hoping and assuming that the vaccinations will improve the situation, but how quickly and effectively, we don't know. But I do know that if lived in another country, and you were a vaccinated visitor, while my family, friends and neighbors were still getting sick, I wouldn't be so welcoming.

I'll decide to go when and where, as things get clearer.

The Netherlands hopes to have one shot in every Adult by July...

This is just NOT.GOING.TO.HAPPEN

Let's do the numbers. Through today, as per the RIVM website, in the NL they've administered a total of 2.7 million shots. Now, that's TOTAL shots, so many of those might also be second shots. So let's say, we figure 2 million people have at least one shot. (We've primarily been on the two-shot option until just recently and we know there is a limited time frame to get the second shot, so that is a generous estimate). The vaccination program has been in place since January 6. So right at three months.

Thus, for the past three months, the NL program has averaged less than 700,000 "first shots" per month. We still have more than 12 million adults to vaccinate to achieve the July 1 goal. That's less than three months away. We'd have to go from 700,000 first shots per month to 3.75+ million first shots per month. And many of those folks getting a "first shot" during this three-month period would also require the second shot!

As I said in an earlier message, using the government's online program, I entered my health factors and it calculated I would get my first shot in December. So which is more realistic - doing the math, using their website to calculate my estimated date... or listening to Acting Health Minister Hugo de Jonge propose his July 1 goal?

I’ve written 2021 off for international travel. Too many lockdowns in the countries next on my to visit list. Vaccination rollout seems to be going much slower in Europe. Maybe we’ll get lucky and can do our annual London trip in December, but we’re not making any reservations. Then of course are the requirements needed for entry, returning, and while in country e.g., mask wearing anytime in public, no matter where you are, irrespective of social distance. Too many unknowns at this point.

I got my second shot in February. I'm on the notification list for one of the RS tours this fall but realistically I don't think it will happen, and if it did I'm not sure I'd go for it anyway. I've been noodling a fall trip to England on the theory that they're ahead of the rest of Europe re vaccinations, and JC's post is encouraging about that, but haven't made any real plans. I looked into the possibility of Iceland for June but decided to hold off, mostly because of the need for a test before re-entering the US. I have booked flights within the US for July and it looks like that one will work out, unless something bad happens.

I don't mind masking (well I don't like it but I do it), distancing, and hand-washing (a good idea regardless), but I want to be able to visit sights, eat in restaurants, and use public transit when traveling. And to feel comfortable and safe doing so. I don't think Europe will be up to that before next year.

You are not UNLIKELY to spread Covid, but you will be LESS likely to spread it. You can still catch it and spread it, but it probably means that you will be less likely to be hospitalised by catching it.

Croatia has said they will reopen to tourists, but at present, their infection rates are soaring and their vaccination rates are below the EU average, which is itself way behind Israel the U.K. and USA. It suggests that their borders may not open as planned or without restrictions such as quarantine. We found last year that restrictions can change at very short notice which makes planning trips difficult. I had 10 flight changes to my return trip to Spain last October.

Much of Europe is introducing further lockdowns and curfews this week. The U.K. is about to emerge from 3 months of lockdown and international travel for us is unlikely before July.

I don’t know why people think Europe will be quiet this year - it won’t as it will be full of Europeans taking staycations.

Would you be welcome? Who knows. Touristy parts of the U.K. last year were not happy being overrun with holidaymakers from other parts of the U.K. I would imagine that foreign tourists would be even less welcome. I know some people in Portugal - those in the tourist and hospitality sector want tourists to return, whereas the other locals certainly don’t want visitors.

+1 for Estimated Prophet. I have a similar attitude, and lots of gratitude.

We have a ton of BA miles and a 2-4-1 companion voucher, thanks to last year's canceled trips to Italy. The voucher was extended a year, to March 2022, and Outbound flight must take place before then. So I am cautiously, with forced optimism, planning a March 2022 trip to Italy and the U.K. But I am only booking the flights as far as London at this point, and will not book anything other than the fully refundable flights until later, when we have a clearer picture of the situation.

Maybe we will actually get to Italy; maybe we will only go to the UK; . . . And maybe we won't go at all.
If not, we will try again for September 2022.

You may not remember Jennifer due to the wave going on in your country, but Portugal opened to other Europeans for Christmas. There were excerpts on the French news with interviews of French families enjoying restaurants there, something we hadn't/haven't done since they were ordered closed October 30. Then in January, the news showed Portugal had the highest rate of C19 in Europe, followed by a strict, long lockdown.

Edit: Portugal is now opening after a very strict lockdown. As the waiters who were interviewed said, the government doesn’t have the money to support people the way some other countries do. Therefore, despite the previous experiences, it hopes to see tourists again.

I live in Switzerland and while the tourism industry is suffering greatly, I would personally prefer that the government focus on getting us vaccinated rather than reopening to overseas tourists. The authorities are talking about first doses of vaccine for most of the general population in June at the earliest - this means maybe there will be progress by August, but given how many times the timeline has been pushed forward already, I am not holding my breath. While individual tourists might be less of an issue and would probably be welcome, I personally can't say I miss the bus tours and summer crowds and I wouldn't be sorry to postpone their return for another year. Call me selfish, but I feel like if I am going to be restricted within the country for another 6 months (at least), I don't think there should be mass tourism. Besides which, if social distancing restrictions and limited entry to museums/shops/etc will continue through the summer, I don't want to have be competing with thousands of tourists for access to these things when they are my only options. Most people I know here in Europe are not planning to travel in 2021, at least through the summer. And to be honest, fall and winter seem very far away and not even worth thinking about until I see vaccine numbers improving....

When I am vaccinated, I would like to visit family in the US since I haven't seen anyone there in over a year. Otherwise I will probably restrict myself to places in Europe where there are no quarantines, vaccine progress equal to or better than Switzerland, etc. I expect this will be a fluid situation depending on a lot of different factors and my planning/booking timetables will be shorter than usual. I am hopeful that maybe it will be possible in the fall, but also preparing myself for the unwelcome possibility that I won't be leaving Switzerland in 2021.

We are ready to travel, but must plan for the travel restrictions and local rules.

We don't want to get stuck in a quarantine because a required COVID19 test is late with the results or a local government unexpectedly orders a shutdown.

Still, we are holding on to our plans for our Safari in July/August in Kenya and Tanzania as well as two weeks in Italy prior to taking a transatlantic cruise home.

Real world data out of Israel, as well as numerous studies, show the vaccines work very well. On both an individual level (keeping you from getting sick) and on a population level
(drastically lowering transmission and reducing case load immensely). Therefore international travel is most reasonable when both the traveler and a good percentage of the host country is vaccinated. Right now that’s not Europe, but some countries are ramping up their programs now and others expect to do so soon. I’m more than willing to travel once welcome to countries that are increasing their vaccinations and seeing positive effects. It’s possible before that, but I’d be cautious about what is available to visit at the destination and possible closures. I’d only go to countries where tourists are welcome, obviously.

I have not studied the situation in Europe in depth but in December and January many US citizens were upset about slow rollouts at home and calculating that they wouldn’t get their shots until October. Now many states are open to all adults, with more opening all the time. In my state, Ohio, things were very tight until mid March then opened up to all adults in late March. Now appointments are available fairly easily, but it does take some looking or driving to a more rural area with more availability. Every week it seems to get easier. Proactive Americans who want a shot and can schedule appointments online (and maybe travel to other towns in their area) will be able to start vaccinations by May. No adult who wants a vaccine will have to wait to the earlier prediction of fall. My point with regard to travel? It looks bad now but I bet Europe will hit a point in a few months where things open up and vaccinations start happening much faster. Once that happens, things change quickly. We are seeing it start in parts of the US, I think the UK is seeing it, and Israel has been through much of it.

So am I planning a trip for 2021? No. Am I open to doing so if possible? Absolutely. Am I pretty confident in summer 2022? Absolutely, I’m thinking about options now.

I remain relatively optimistic. The performance of the EU in procuring vaccines has been a debacle.
But I think travel in the US will be robust by July and suspect most European countries are two and at most three months behind us. I question August travel to Europe, but believe by October--six months from now--travel to Europe will be open.

For those in the US there are plenty of places to visit here. For those who have never been to the Dakotas, Nebraska and Wyoming, I suggest a trip there. I’ve done 4 since this all began.

How will locals feel about this (realize there will be a range of
perspectives)? Will tourists be welcome?

The countries that are currently open for US tourism (about 20% of Europe) have done so, in their belief, for their very survival. These are democracies so I suspect that they carry the support of the majority of their citizens. So I would suspect that they would indeed welcome you. Several are even hammering social media with "come to ___________" marketing. To look closer to home for an answer, I suspect that the attitude in Croatia would not be much different than the attitude in the US states that have reopened. People are people after all. Some come to Texas and we will welcome you with open arms.

The real question is not "can I" or course you can, the question is "should I". Consider your health, your risk tolerance, the risks of something closing, if you can make your trip fully refundable if something changes, etc and if the open countries are of any interest to you. Then decide and enjoy your decision. Some will choose to stay home and that's the right decision for them, others will travel and that's their right decision.

How are you deciding whether and when and where to travel?

Simple, is there a place open that I will enjoy under the current in-country restrictions? Yes
Do I think the odds are better than not, that the country will remain open? Yes
Do I know how to book a refundable trip if something changes? Yes

If you will be fully vaccinated, how are you thinking about international travel this spring/summer?

I will go to whatever appealing place that opens planned at minimum 3 weeks in advance

Back in December in a flurry of optimism I re-booked the 9-day "Italy Coast to Coast" road bike tour that didn't happen last year. At the moment I'm holding my fingers crossed for the 2nd half of September, leaving the 14th. I have a couple days in Bologna before the tour and after I have four nights in Rome before returning to the US on Oct 2nd. At the moment I give it 50/50 chance of coming off.

The real question is not "can I" or course you can, the question is
"should I". Consider your health, your risk tolerance, the risks of
something closing, if you can make your trip fully refundable if
something changes, etc and if the open countries are of any interest
to you. Then decide and enjoy your decision. Some will choose to stay
home and that's the right decision for them, others will travel and
that's their right decision.

I think there's one BIG "should" not presented in this argument - What will be your impact on the local population?

As I read comments on the thread, most statements are fairly similar. I'm vaccinated, and as soon as I can I am going to XXXX, as long as it's refundable. I've seen numbers bantered around about that 10-30% of the European economies are based on travel. Heck, I'm in the travel industry - I can assure you... the pandemic has decimated my business. I have hundreds of contacts through Europe in the industry and we commiserate weekly.

If you received a vaccine with 87-90% efficacy, that means there's perhaps a 10% chance you're still viable to create/have an infection (and worse, if we say the vaccine is not 100% effective with transmission issues). If a country opens and one million vaccinated people come, that means there are 100,000 opportunities (10%) for a COVID infection to occur. It could happen at the airport, on a train, in a taxi, with a waiter, a desk clerk, etc. And many of them are NOT currently vaccinated - not even close. Then, they go home and interact with their parents, their spouse, their children, or friends. And not all of them are vaccinated. And pretty soon we're back to a lockdown.

If. you argue that 15% of a country's economy is dependent on travel, that means the majority - 85% - is not. And what do those folks want?

I talked to a few Dutch friends via ZOOM, WhatsApp, and Skype (we're only allowed to have one visitor at a time at our house under the current lockdown) and in true-Dutch fashion, they were pretty direct. (Whereas most of my European contacts are in the travel industry, my Dutch friends are not). These are folks, who in the last 365 days, have been in lockdown for 202 days (and those numbers are harsher in Italy & France).

Their initial comments ranged from. "That's pretty selfish" to "That's irresponsible." They asked, "How can these people think about vacationing in the summer when we can't even leave our homes at night? And, "No one has told me when I will be allowed to go to the USA, as it's still closed."

The general consensus was that before the government allows foreign tourists back into the country, it needs to address their lifestyle and the current restrictions (business and personal). Almost all said that most importantly, "We need the vaccine; we need protection." And our conversations tended to ramble on from there as to what is the government should do, has screwed up, etc. (Sounds a lot like frustrations Americans have had over gov't in recent times).

Currently, the chance of getting an infection from a tourist in the NL is pretty close to ZERO - there are no tourists allowed into the country. And yet, our numbers last week were the same as they were in January 2021 - despite the ongoing 120+ day lockdown and curfew. Many lamented, "What would be those numbers should we introduce "outsiders" into our environment - before we at least have the vaccine?" Their preception was that conversations about "reducing your carbon footprint" are far more prevalent in Europe than in the US. Contrasts were drawn between that and "responsible COVID behavior. And those conversations evolved into more political dialogue.

My reaction to their thoughts. Travelers should consider your impact on the locals, many of who may be unvaccinated. Know the vaccination rates where you're traveling and make it part of your decision. And be excessive in your mask-wearing, social distancing, and hand-washing practices. Be the best at complying with the local COVID restrictions.

I lived for years on visas in multiple countries. And when you have to secure or renew a visa, you're uncomfortably aware that, You are a Guest in this country. When we're here, our actions are directly influenced by their rules, restrictions, law, etc - or we can't stay. After so many years, it's now just second nature and that feeling has certainly carried over to my travel behaviors.

Also in our discussion on international travel was the belief that for the near future (one year?) a negative PCR test may become the norm for entry into a country. It's a requirement to renter the USA from an international destination... and probably will be for the foreseeable future. So start making this part of your travel budget and travel plans. It's really the first (or last) line of defense for many countries.

Well put RnR.

I have friends in France, Portugal and Croatia. None are involved in the travel industry and they, like most of my U.K. friends don’t want to see international tourists this year. They don’t want another lockdown and want their respective governments to be cautious. One said they considered transatlantic tourists as selfish and arrogant even if vaccinated, as they could still impact on their Covid rates and bring in variants as the testing isn’t 100% accurate. I guess those working in the travel industry would have different views.

My reaction to their thoughts. Travelers should consider your impact
on the locals, many of who may be unvaccinated.

That attitude when a country chooses to open presupposes that a person from Hoboken knows more about what is best for a country than the elected officials of that country; and that everyone should be judged by New York standards. I don't buy that. There is a reason that a number of countries have opened. Might it be that they have decided that poverty is the worst of the two evils?

I get staying home out of concern for your own health, but I think it is a stretch to purport to do it for the welfare of a society one knows very little about. Let them judge for themselves. But do follow their laws and guidelines to the very letter if not 25% more cautious. You have that obligation as a guest.

We are fully vaccinated, but realize that doesn't mean 100% safety for us or the people around us.

Right now we are planning on returning to Iceland in August. I did purchase flights when they announced that fully vaccinated Americans were welcome. When I was looking at flights though, we could have used miles for all 5 of our tickets if we used Delta, but that meant a layover. Paying for tickets through Iceland Air meant nonstop. We chose nonstop for several reasons, one of which is that I was as little time at any airport as possible.

We are planning a ring road trip, so self catering accommodations are all booked.

I realize that this trip may or may not happen, and everything is fully refundable and all but one lodging is pay shortly before you arrive or upon arrival. The other one was pair for last year, and we just changed the date, so would do that again.

One thing I made sure of was to purchase trip insurance. Our medical insurance does not cover us for international travel, so we always purchase trip insurance for this reason. I really scoured the policies as some will not cover Covid, and others will cover say 50k medical, and of course that is pretty much useless if you get Covid. So I made sure to find one with a higher amount that we felt comfortable with and specifically includes Covid.

I get staying home out of concern for your own health, but I think it
is a stretch to purport to do it for the welfare of a society one
knows very little about.

It's never a stretch to think of others instead of yourself. This is the time to perfect it.

Staying home, wearing masks, not traveling is not about the individual, but the whole. It's time to think about the whole for a change. And if one is so intent on spending their money to help people, there are plenty of third world level areas in the US to which you could travel and spend money.

Now to answer the question, I would love to travel, but due to the above, and the conditions in the open areas, the particular open areas (not too interested at this time), I am not planning on traveling in 2021, except domestically to my cousin's house whom I miss terribly. 2022? The more time goes by, the more I question whether that will happen as well. In addition, being a bit clairvoyant, I was told by my "friends" in 2015, to get my International travel over so I ramped up my travel for my personal list. I don't know the reason, but as I see Covid, I'm thinking that was at least part of it. And for those who might laugh at my source for information, it's likely at least equal to yours.

Well said, Wray!

Thank you, Wray!

I get staying home out of concern for your own health, but I think it
is a stretch to purport to do it for the welfare of a society one
knows very little about. Let them [meaning the country that has
decided to accept tourism] judge for themselves. But do follow
their laws and guidelines to the very letter if not 25% more cautious.
You have that obligation as a guest.

A full quote is generally more informative.

Thank you RnR and Wray! Beautifully stated. Sometimes when I think there is no/little humanity/integrity left, I read comments such as yours and feel restored.

I honestly don't know. I'll be fully vaccinated in 2 weeks.

I'm hoping to go to Italy in October but I go back and forth day to day and week to week. Right now I only have a hotel reservation which I can cancel.

If masks are required for the flight I have mixed feelings whether I will be comfortable doing that for so long. If masks are required indoors and/or walking around I have mixed feelings about that too. Even after I'm vaccinated I won't be eating indoors with people I don't know until the experts say it's safe.

Right now I'm in a wait and see period. As each day passes I find myself more inclined to skip international travel this year. I can hold off deciding for now.

There is no shortage of beautiful places to explore in the USA. I'm an outdoors, nature oriented traveler and our country is abundant in those kind of trips.

You are not UNLIKELY to spread Covid, but you will be LESS likely to spread it. You can still catch it and spread it, but it probably means that you will be less likely to be hospitalised by catching it.

It seems it might be better than that. "Scientists have debated whether vaccinated people may still get asymptomatic infections and transmit the virus to others. The new study, by researchers at the C.D.C., suggested that since infections were so rare, transmission was likely rare, too." https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/29/world/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccines-infection.html?action=click&module=Science%20%20Technology&pgtype=Homepage

Although we are both fully vaccinated, we are not planning any European/UK vacations until March 2022 (Prague and Krakow) at the earliest. My husband is scheduled to make presentations in the UK (Sept) and Barcelona (Nov) but I imagine business travelers will be more welcome and closed museums are less of a concern to business travelers.

Please define fully vaccinated. A woman I know in Brittany just wrote that the South African variant has shown up at a school in her village. Pfizer and Modérna are less effective against the South African variant. Without a booster, are we fully vaccinated?

I will go to France in a few months, not to travel, but to stay for a while. Masks will be de rigueur ; not a problem. I welcome the protection.

I agree with Frank's list, and also that I expect mask wearing and sanitizing to be around for quite some time and I am okay with that--not thrilled, but okay. I will be fully vaccinated in early May but I honestly can't see the places I most want to visit--London and Budapest--being able to offer me the vacation I want and need this year. Due to job constraints I can't travel in summer and don't like the cold weather so this year is probably out. So, to somewhat approximate my normal vacation habits I will drive up the coast in mid May to the Mendocino area for a few days, and in late October I will use my United flight credit and go to New York City. Being forced to explore my own country is not an entirely bad thing.

If you do decide to travel here are a few suggestions.

First, check out the State Department website to see if the location you wish to visit is open to US tourists. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/COVID-19-Country-Specific-Information.html While not the final authority, it’s a good place to start.

Then take a look at the Tourist Board website for the country you have chosen. Here are some examples. Within the website you are often able to find their recommendations for safe travel within their country as well as information of COVID limitation. I picked out a few examples below; some are more helpful than others. There are about a half dozen other countries currently open for US tourism: https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/general-europe/what-is-open-in-europe-and-beyond
Montenegro: https://www.montenegro.travel/en

Croatia: https://croatia.hr/en-GB
Bosnia is a little less informative, but does have recommendations for what to see this summer: https://www.tourismbih.com/
Ukraine: The official site is a bit sparse on COVID and entry requirements, https://www.ukraine.com/ but a non-profit has picked up the slack: https://traveltoukraine.org/what-you-should-know/coronavirus-information/
Serbia: https://www.serbia.travel/en/covid-19

On this side, the people who are against travel, don't want people planning travel, don't want people traveling until everyone is vaccinated, don't want anyone traveling until booster shots are availale for all variants, don't want anyone even thinking about travel this year, probably next year, and even beyond that, and refuse to travel if they have to wear a mask.

On the other side are people who's bags are packed, wonder if they are "fully vaccinated", worry how can they prove it, look at rates of new cases and deaths from the virus daily to try to determine when a country will open its borders to them, and keep asking for predictions of when things will open.

Then there is a third group. A group that waits patiently for official word from the powers that be. They don't try to predict what will happen because it can't be done. They share solid news and not pick and choose items that proves their side. They realize that until they are given an official option, this whole thing is out of their hands. When they are able to make choices, they decide what is right for them and no one else.

Frank, working in the Travel Industry, we have to deal with all three of your scenarios!

• There are many regular clients who WILL NOT travel until there is "a high probability" of normalcy. They have primarily deferred their trips and thus we have booked multiple 2023 cruises and summer 2023 trips in Europe. 2021 & 2022 are not even in their thoughts.
• We have folks who definitely want to travel now and are seeking ANY opportunity, anywhere! For them, we've coordinated trips primarily in the continental USA (National Parks are popular), Hawaii (when it opened), the Caribbean, and Mexico. And yes, we get requests every day (I have two on email this AM) asking, "Can I go here now?"
• We don't hear much from the third group you mention - other than, "I heard this is available, can you confirm?"

The biggest challenge has been... once we coordinate a trip and then the rules change. In some cases, we have had to cancel the trip. In other cases, we have to educate the guest on the changes required (Like a COVID test to re-enter the USA). And we have to stay on top of all the rules and all the changes to the rules. For the traveler, these changes can lead to inconvenience and additional costs; for the travel industry, there are certainly responsibility & liability concerns - like if a traveler shows up and is not allowed to depart because that destination is no longer "open."

Again, the biggest challenge is fielding the many changes. Thus, we're registered with STEP in multiple countries, receive daily feedback from the chamber of commerce and federal & local government entities in our areas of expertise, from our business partners, DMC's, hotels, tour companies, trade information (CLIA, IATA, ASTA, etc), trade periodicals, and so on. It seems to be an endless flow of information and you have to sift through all the responses and validate - as sometimes "these facts" differ depending on the source. (no different than what you see on multiple Travel Forums).

In addition, we speak to other TA's through company intra-nets, SLACK accts, Facebook Groups, etc. These folks can provide us up-to-the-minute details on clients traveling to that destination today. There's nothing better than up-to-date info. (For example, I don't book a lot of American Airlines, but learned of the AA Verify program from another TA. It proved invaluable to assisting my clients when they had to depart the crowded Los Cabos airport). For me, living overseas, I get a lot of emails, phone calls, and ZOOM requests from TA's - as they want/need info from areas where their clients are seeking to travel. More often than not, they want details on the current "on-the-ground situation" so they can determine what type of vacation experience their travelers will have.

Planning trips pre-COVID could sometimes be challenging. Planning trips in-COVID IS incredibly challenging - whether you're working independently or in the travel industry. Perhaps some keys are patience, research, and flexibility. And you have to evaluate (and re-evaluate) any bit of information you receive.

https://www.iamexpat.nl/expat-info/dutch-expat-news/experts-frustrated-netherlands-decision-suspend-astrazeneca?

And, as a follow-up to earlier posts in this thread... The NL government Saturday suspended AstaZeneca vaccinations - the primary vaccine in their arsenal. This is not the first "stop" of the vaccination process. Now the issue is not just WHEN we will get vaccinated, but WHICH vaccine we will be able to receive. This further compounds the government's statements of a July 1 target for all Dutch citizens. Frustrating...

The traveler in me is still hoping for somewhere in Fall 2021, but am willing to give that up with little regret. My big winter away plans for Jan 2022 will be much harder to give up.

I'm following Frank II as far as deciding 'where' for any dates, but knowing I'll be vaccinated by end July and that my Jan plan of SEAsia makes that decision look reasonably possible; but their current quarantine requirements would need to change - or my expectations :-)
I was hearing today from folks in Turkey that hotels are organizing some sort of tourist HES card to allow tourism to be in place - though locals are in shut downs, curfews and restricted activities. I can't personally condone that sort of 2 tier approach. If a country isn't in good shape, I'll stay away. And FWIW, I won't be traveling close to home this summer either. No need to add to upticks that way either.

MariaF, I remember the two tier system being in place, but when I checked the Turkey Embassy website for COVID restrictions (linked in the What's Open in Europe and Beyond thread i posted a while back), I cant find reference to it. But there are some pretty decent restrictions by region right now. Doesnt mean no, means more research. And like you I would be a bit uncomfortable with that. I get it, they are trying to feed their people, but still a bit uncomfortable for me.

I have two countries planned for May. Both open and I don't really expect either will close but the conditions within the country have changed often. Still one country is for fishing and for that the lockdowns have no impact. The other country has some new, pretty strict, city by city lockdowns that are a concern. More concerning are some geopolitical issues taking place on the border that has led my friends over there suggesting I wait and watch. So maybe things slip a bit or maybe I just do the fishing. My plans are flexible and everything is refundable. When the date comes a bit closer I decide. After all this is just recreation. Fun to plan, better to dream, but no big impact on life either way.

I think the biggest issue facing everyone involved in the travel industry -- from Rick Steves through Princess Cruises -- is that we're never going back to "normal". We're not going to eliminate Covid like we did Smallpox; it will be a fixture of our lives for decades. For all intents and purposes, we've living in the "new normal". Yearly vaccines will blunt some of the impact, but the virus is now endemic and mutating far more rapidly than anyone expected. That means at some point we'll have to take off the masks and move on with our life in a new world, despite the risk. Who is responsible for making that call is another topic, but there's never going to be a magic day where Covid is no longer a threat. That doesn't mean we shouldn't vaccinate as many people as possible and beat it back as much as possible.

.02

-- Mike Beebe

I have been a big supporter of lockdowns, mask mandates, and the like. I think sweeping steps to minimize and mitigate spread of the virus have been entirely warranted, and even for the immediate future think they're entirely justified.

Having said that, even I am wary of asking people to approach near 2 years of heavy restrictions, or asking economies to approach 2 years of shutdowns and lockdowns.

To this point, I've been entirely supportive of policy makers being on the lookout for conditions and circumstances that call for lockdowns; I think, over the next few months, policy makers will have to transition instead to being on the lookout for conditions and circumstances that justify loosening and eliminating restrictions.

In the US, it's only taken us a few months from going from one of the world's worst examples of unchecked contagion and hapless policymaking to being the envy of much of the world with our vaccination efforts. I see no reason to think that a few months - and even less - is all it could take for Europe and many other regions to similarly find themselves vaccinating at an excellent pace, and benefiting from that more widespread vaccination. I don't quite get why people are treating this current situation - with the US doing so well with vaccinations and Europe doing so poorly - as some kind of longstanding normal when we're really only talking about conditions that have come about in a couple of months. If the US could go from COVID worst case scenario to vaccination poster child in a couple months, so can Europe.

Policymakers are constantly having to weigh costs vs. benefits, risks vs. rewards. As the year progresses, I think we'll start to see both public authorities, those in the private sector, and the public at large determining the amount of risk that remains come late summer and the fall is entirely acceptable, when considering the benefits of relaxing travel restrictions and truly opening up economies. I think they'll be right, as well. Especially with those most at risk getting vaccinated first and greater numbers of people in general being vaccinated, the costs of keeping borders and businesses closed will be greater than the costs of opening them up. I do not feel we've yet been at a point where the costs of staying closed are greater than those of reopening, but do think we'll be there in the next several months. We're going to want people spending and traveling (at least between countries with high enough vaccination and testing rates and low enough positivity rates).

So I'm looking forward to traveling to Europe this coming winter, once fully vaccinated (which will happen in a few weeks). I'm ok with wearing masks much of the time, just as I'm entirely ok with so at home.

1885BD a well reasoned argument. Thank you.

Agree also with 1885BD's reasoning.

I have already offered above my speculation on when we might see some return to normalcy in Europe. But with Covid, three months can be a lifetime. We have seen several times conditions worsen exponentially over a two-month period, and we are now seeing in the US conditions improve exponentially because of vaccination rates. In much of the US, the positive-test and more important hospitalization rates have absolutely nosedived, and government restrictions are being substantially reduced, if not eliminated.

When Europe achieves vaccination rates comparable to what the US will achieve by late June, conditions in Europe will be dramatically different.

My final comment is that for foreign travel, I am not willing to wear a mask. If airlines and countries require masks, I will assume good reason exists for that requirement and certainly would comply were I to travel. But if that is the rule, I prefer to travel at a later date

So, the fact that US covid numbers and deaths continue to increase weekly is superceded by vaccine numbers in some people's minds? I wouldn't be handing out laurels or emmys just yet....

and government restrictions are being substantially reduced, if not eliminated

Many against medical advice!

I am planning on taking my 2020 Christmas Markets trip this coming year. However, if I am required to have a COVID test before entering each country, Netherlands, Germany, France & back to the U.S.,, then I will not be making that trip this year & hope for 2022.

So, the fact that US covid numbers and deaths continue to increase weekly is superceded by vaccine numbers in some people's minds? I wouldn't be handing out laurels or emmys just yet....

Not at all. At least not in the case of my mind!

I'm not sure anyone is suggesting we're at a point right now where vaccinations are all great and good and it's time to move on. What I'm saying, at least, is the pace of vaccinations is great and good in some places (the US included), and very well could soon be in many other places (such as Europe), and that's reason to look forward to reopenings and travel.

As for current trends, weirdly enough there's reason for at least some hope in them. In the US, it's something like 3/4 of our senior citizens are vaccinated. At the same time, the increases in cases and hospitalizations we're seeing are among younger people - those least likely to be vaccinated at present, because they've been least likely to be eligible for a vaccine until recently. In other words, we're seeing precisely what we want to see - decreasing rates of infection, illness, and death in our most vaccinated populations.

We know vaccines offer protection not only from infection, but even more importantly from severe symptoms and illness. There's even an ever-growing body of evidence vaccines reduce infectiousness. We know induced immunity lasts for months - 6 months and counting for both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines ("and counting" because the studies have only been going on 6 months and counting). We know vaccines are effective against different variants (to different degrees... the existing vaccines seem to be quite effective against the UK variant, possibly less so against the South African, all the while being more effective than no vaccine at all and even more effective than infection-induced immunity).

I do not, in the least, fault anyone for still being wary or even a bit cynical. I'm a huge proponent of everyone getting vaccinated, religiously wear my mask, avoid gatherings, etc. But I think we absolutely have to start opening things up and resuming life as normal as we reach sufficient levels of vaccination, because at that point we have no choice but to.

Even with variants, mutations, prospect of needing boosters, etc, I'd ask folks... what other options do we have? Whether we like it or not, our eggs are in the vaccination basket. If we find out 6 months from now vaccines actually don't do much good, then our only real choice is to throw up our hands and say "Well, we tried!". For a year we've had the prospect of vaccinating our way to a return to normalcy to look forward to, and that has allowed enough people to accept restrictions and patiently await that return to normalcy (some more accepting and patient than others). If we were to tell everyone that, instead, lockdowns and restrictions will be indefinite if not permanent, I just don't see folks accepting that. Nope - vaccinations is where it's at. Once enough people are vaccinated, the only metric folks will really care about is how many of us are vaccinated.

Maria, I can't speak for all American states, but in the last 10 weeks in Louisiana, the number of people hospitalized because of Covid has gone from 2,000 to 300. We still have an indoor mask requirement, unlike some other states in the region. However, a number of restrictions have been modified or entirely lifted, and over the past month, public activity has visibly increased. Based on what I am seeing, the vaccines are working amazingly well and give me reason to be optimistic about where we will be four months from now in the US and seven months from now in Europe.

I won't travel internationally this year. I had a trip to Israel planned for this October/November, but I've postponed it until next February/March. I do hope to do some traveling within Mexico this year, and I am hoping to be able to visit family and friends back in the USA.

My concern is primarily about having full access to sites and restaurants and museums and such, and to be able to interact with people where I go. I'd be pretty disappointed if I planned a trip to [City A] to see [Site B] only to discover that [Site B] was closed or access was limited or restricted in some way.

Agree also with 1885BD's reasoning.

Richard, I just said it was well reasoned. An excellent argument, to the point, and without hyperbole. I didn't say I agreed with it (but I don't totally disagree). But it was thought provking, and I used it to test my own opinions which is what a good argument should do.

If anyone wants to track the numbers, and something I cant discuss for fear of deletion, you might want to look at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html clean, simple, graphical.

The basis for my statement:
WHO weekly epidemiological report for this week : https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---6-april-2021
I guess you can consider numbers are 'down' as last week's report showed US numbers up 11%, and this week they are only up 5%.

We finally reserved a spot for OctoberFest 2022. No international travel for 2021

It looks like Bosnia & Herzegovina (Sarajevo) will soon open to vaccinated tourists.

MariaF, according to the link you posted: "Globally, new COVID-19 cases rose for a sixth consecutive week, with over 4 million new cases reported in the last week. The number of new deaths also increased by 11% compared to last week, with over 71 000 new deaths reported."
The numbers of new cases and deaths are UP. This is not encouraging.

We are fully vaccinated and ready to travel, locally and internationally. As of right now, Europe is off the table, with the exception of Greece, Montenegro, so we are looking at countries we want to see that want and need tourists. Egypt for October and my dream safari in Tanzania next year. Plenty of places to keep me busy traveling, until Europe welcomes us back.

I agree with Mike Beebe. Covid is going to be around for a long, long time. We are going to have to learn to live with it.

Speaking of vaccines, The Free State of Bavaria has negotiated to buy 2 5 million doses of the Russian vaccine.

@Lindy, yes, the WHO stats are sobering. Because I work in a covid world, I used to read them with breakfast every morning as they were posted daily. Then I realized the negative impact they had on me so I stretched out the frequency. Now I don't read weekly either, as it has always been bad news somewhere in the world.