Iceland's Plan

Do you think the May 1 date is written in stone? Three months from now?

Why not just wait until they announce their actual plans?

I finally read the plan more carefully. You should look closely at their color coded criteria, and hope that the US falls in the "green" or "orange" category at the time of your trip (assuming these are still the same criteria at the time of your trip, which may or may not be the case in July). The "green" or "orange" risk profiles are the only options I can see for avoiding a 5-day quarantine requirement, which will wipe out your wallet in a place like Iceland.

"The risk assessment will be based on the following criteria:

Green means that the 14-day incidence rate is below 25 per 100 thousand inhabitants, and less than 4% of tests are positive.
Orange means that the 14-day incidence rate is below 50 per 100 thousand inhabitants, but the positivity rate exceeds 4%; or the 14-day incidence rate is between 25 and 250 but the positivity rate is below 4%.
Red applies if the situation is more severe.
Grey applies to countries where information is insufficient or fewer than 300 tests are performed per 100 thousand each week."

I can't see where I even hinted at anything being "set in stone," but let me reread my post. Hmmm...

Far as I can tell I was asking people what they think.

Agnes, of course. No tourist is going to quarantine for 5 days in Iceland.

It is a sign of cautious optimism.

I think that Iceland has to be careful (they experienced an overabundance of tourism relative to their population in the past), so their criteria make good sense to me and I commend them for publishing it and making it transparent. But one has to really read it carefully, and keep up with any changes. I don't see any particular optimism or pessimism in it, I see a very cautious measured approach.

It's far more encouraging than their current restrictions, no matter how you read it. If that's not evident I give up.

As an example the NYC positivity rate is 4.75 percent. Illinois 4.9 percent.

22 million vaccines already, and it's... February 2. Johnson and Johnson said there will be enough vaccines for the entire US adult population by June. The governors of West Virginia and Virginia have said the issue is no longer getting shots into arms, but supply, and that's being fixed quickly.

So will the positivity rate decline significantly by May or July? You be the judge.

What do I think?
Standard PR and nothing more. They (government) understand the madness and frustration with this virus. The actions taken by many to rebel (lockdown protest in various cities in Europe). People becoming depressed by the doom/gloom and lockdowns.

Thus they are trying to show some light at the end of the tunnel....old motto of keeping putting one foot in front of the other....one step at a time..... we are almost there....

Any smart government or business will (and should) take this approach. Look at RS—tours listed for 2021...and only dropping dates as he has to, taking a positive approach hoping to tour again in 2021. But at the same time RS is not taking deposits. RS wants to present the fact that if things clear his company is ready and able to get to work immediately (and they are ). But that doesn’t mean it is going to happen- far too early to determine that fact.

Iceland is following the same path...telling everyone the country will be ready to open and how they will do it, IF CONDITIONS ALLOW.

Please stop reading into statements ‘news’ that is not there. The very first sentence states: “....if the epidemiological situation allows.” IF and ALLOWS are huge words. The medical world is in a race against time to inoculate before new variants over run the effectiveness of the vaccines. There is a huge concern over the South African variant.

Hopefully we get this virus buried and gone but right now predicting what the situation and immigration policies of any country will be 3 months from now is beyond ludicrous. If you have money to blow go for it. Book away. But if your resources are limited you had better be very careful in the actions you take.

It looks like a reasonable plan for a country to establish. The US just recently invoked a 72 hour negative test to enter from a foreign country. I assume more and more countries will establish these types of conditions if they haven't already. There is enough problems within let alone opening the doors to non-residents.

onefastbob is right - you have to consider each word carefully in any of these official statements. A lot of the nuances and details get lost once the media gets ahold of them and change words to simplify the message. Suddenly, speculation turns into declaration.

BMWBGV, I'm caught by this statement: ". . . valid international vaccination certificate for full vaccination with an approved vaccine against COVID-19 . . . " AFAIK, there is no internationally accepted certificate that's been agreed upon, unless they mean the WHO yellow card which is not exactly official. And no international list of "approved" vaccines.

As at policy, I see where travelers might be happy with it. But it seems to omit addressing how long since vaccination or infection is an acceptable time period (permanent immunity has not been proven). Proof of prior infection should be proof that you are no longer positive (note from your doctor?) Or that you can be vaccinated and still be infective. Its curious that they dont mention testing.

Then, maybe its just me, but this statement - ". . . However, certificate of vaccination against COVID-19 or confirmation of previous COVID-19 infection can not exempt individuals from the current travel restrictions." - seems to contradict the previous paragraph.

So, this "decision" seems to be more of a timeline for making a decision.

In addition to what others have said, there are unforseen circumstances that may slow the distribution of the vaccine. Many areas of the Northeast had to close vaccination centers yesterday due to the storm and may have to close again.

I learned a long time ago to ignore most politicians unless they can back up what they say with actual facts.

Just saw a statistic on the PBS Newshour that U.S. vaccinations increased 15% last week, compared with the prior week. Whether more vaccine’s getting shipped and administered, or whether more of the stockpiled vaccine’s being put into arms, I’m not certain. It does seem as if momentum is building in the U.S.A. Three months could be a lot of time for momentum to build worldwide, likely more in some places than others.

It’s impressive that Iceland seems to be taking purposeful action and making planning well in advance, and letting everyone know about it, rather than a last-minute reactionary strategy awaiting an emergency before doing much.

This could be another Viking conquest - overcoming a virus on their island, geographically more than 4 times the size of West Virginia, but with less than one-fourth the population.

BigMikeWestbyGodVirginia: Your optimism doesn't take into account the possibility of Iceland's Grímsvötn volcano having a major eruption causing severe seismic activity across the planet, thereby destroying all the vaccine and disposable mask plants. My god man, don't get peoples hopes up!!!!

BigMike--Thank you for sharing this. Like you, we are hoping to head back to Iceland this summer. Mid/late August for us, fingers crossed. Of our party of 5, 4 will be vaccinated for sure before then, but the last one will be in the last group to be allowed. So that is sticking in my mind as well, but really hoping by then we at least have the vaccine scheduling handled. This will be interesting to keep an eye on and see how it plays out.

The aim of today's decision is to convey as much predictability as
possible. The Government has prepared its decision diligently,
considering economic, social and medical viewpoints, both domestic and
international.

While it's going to be a moving target, it's good to see a government communicating a plan. Hope is important because it helps people deal with the present circumstances.

I just wanted to say to Stan, that I like his abbreviation for BigMikeWestByGodVirginia........BMWBGV! It made me smile. 😀

Ha. I think someone else did it first. I just got tired of typing it all out, but wanted to show respect for his (and most folks) chosen user name.🤓

Since this is a predominantly American forum, I'm not sure if you are aware that in 2020 there were many countries in Europe that allowed travel for other Europeans without any tests or quarantines. I mean literally zero, except having to fill out some locator forms. Anyone who wanted to go on holiday could do so, and for people who do not like summer crowds that was the best year for travel ever. I spend nearly a month in Croatia and Italy and then was supposed to go to Spain for another month but had to return home due to family reasons.

In that view what Iceland is proposing is not impressive at all. In may be step forward for Iceland but for people like me who did travel in 2020 without restrictions, this is rather disappointing.

A. w. Yes, we in the States were very much aware that Europeans were able to travel. And we knew the surge would follow. If everyone would have some patience and stay home, we would be able to travel sooner than later.
The good thing about all of your travel was being able to enjoy destinations without the hoards of Americans adding to the problem.

More GREAT News!

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210128/us-covid-19-cases-fell-34-in-last-2-weeks

Jan. 28, 2021 -- New COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have fallen 34% during the past 2 weeks, according to the latest database tally from The New York Times.

The U.S. reported more than 155,000 new cases on Wednesday, and the weekly average was about 163,000 cases per day. At the peak 3 weeks ago, more than 300,000 new cases were reported each day.

Cases continue to decline in 45 states, the newspaper reported. California is reporting about 25,000 new cases per day, which is down from the peak of 44,000. South Carolina has reported a slight decline, though Florence, Greenville, and Spartanburg remain in the top 10 nationally for metro areas with high cases per capita.

Hospitalizations are also beginning to decline, according to the COVID Tracking Project. At the peak in early January, more than 130,000 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized across the country. On Wednesday, 107,000 patients were hospitalized, and the 7-day average was about 112,000.

COVID-19 deaths, which tend to lag behind new cases and hospitalizations, are still near peak levels, with more than 3,000 per day, the COVID Tracking Project reported. On Wednesday, more than 4,000 deaths were reported. During the past 2 weeks, 13 states have reported an increasing number of deaths, particularly in the South, according to the Times.

Although numbers are decreasing, 44 states remain at the highest COVID-19 risk level, according to NPR, with more than 25 new cases per 100,000 people per day. This represents “unchecked community spread,” the network reported. The current highest-risk states include Arizona, South Carolina, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, and Georgia, which all have more than 60 new cases per 100,000 people per day.

As the numbers drop in some states, officials have begun to roll back some restrictions. On Friday, North Dakota will drop its statewide risk level to the lowest level and allow bars and restaurants to increase their occupancy, according to The Wall Street Journal. On Feb. 1, Michigan will allow indoor dining again but at reduced capacity. New York City may allow indoor dining again soon at 25% capacity.

Overall, the U.S. has reported more than 25.5 million COVID-19 cases and 429,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. Worldwide, more than 100 million cases have been reported, as well as 2.1 million deaths.

In addition, several states are setting records for vaccinations, a trend that is accelerating.

Getting better all the time:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend

This is what has me concerned.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210201/category-5-covid-hurricane-approaches-expert-says

BigMikeWestByGodVirginia I read your link and felt better. Then I saw Diane's and went out and bought another 96 rolls of toilet paper.

You made me laugh, James!