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How soon will you travel

I took part in an online survey for a major university today about travel and the virus. One of the questions I was asked was how soon I'd be willing to travel after this is all over. For me, I'm willing to move forward as soon as the experts say we're good to go. So, let's pretend that 2 months from now, restrictions begin to be gradually eased and then on August 1st, the World Health Organization says we've beat this thing and we can carry on as normal. is that good enough for you? How soon will you start travelling again?

Posted by
4684 posts

From what I've read, we should expect "hot spots" to pop up here and there in different parts of the world over the next year or two. E.g. during the 1918 flu pandemic, there were several waves of infection. Some areas lifted restrictions more quickly than others and saw new outbreaks.

So I guess I don't see it just gradually going away in a few months, even though things will start to return to normal in a few months. We may see normal followed by temporary restrictions to try to stem a new outbreak.

But for traveling, that would seem risky - to be away somewhere and suddenly find myself quarantined because I've been in an area that just experienced an outbreak. Not sure I want to deal with that. At home, not such a big deal if new outbreaks pop up and more temporary restrictions are needed here and there.

Posted by
904 posts

I have a road trip with friends on our Harley's, 12 - 19 September, from California - Nevada - Utah and back. Hoping to still go on that. Thanksgiving weekend for about two weeks is booked for Christmas/Holiday Markets in Amsterdam - Munich & its surrounding area - Strasbourg & Colmar and ending in Paris, as well as visiting my niece. All I will be waiting for is the "All Clear to Travel" from CDC & WHO. Big question will be if any of the markets plan to be open for the holiday season.

Posted by
20566 posts

When a vaccine is available. Otherwise the risk is too high for us at 78. And an earlier projection of needing an infection level of 50, 60% to seriously slow down the infection rate looks accurate. The bug still be around six months or a year from now. This is not going to go away quickly contrary to what our president wishes.

Posted by
1047 posts

Allan that's a tough question. I guess we need experts to say its ok, but we also need sufficient flights and services. And open borders.

On this issue, DH and I have flipped roles. Normally I'm risk averse (e.g. "stop driving so fast, you'll kill someone!"), but he's a scientist so now when I muse on a trip, he says no chance.

We both have four weeks booked off work in November, for a trip that very likely won't go as planned. If there's somewhere we CAN go, we likely will.

So I guess to answer your question, maybe November, but maybe not.

Posted by
6061 posts

I think this question is premature because we're in the beginning stages into this, not the tail end (or even the middle) with no clear roadmap to follow. I don't even know what my savings and 401k account will look like once this is all over (I'm not retired or even close), or what the economy and travel infrastructure will look like (I expect really, really battered and many things not coming back). Do people really expect things to look exactly the same as before COVID hit, in their country and in others? I think the ground will shift in all areas, and travel is just a sliver of that whole picture. I have to see the whole picture first to give a reasonable answer.

I don't have a good feeling about this. Because there is no real global coordination and unified response (even in the US, we have have a patchwork of responses across the states - some very strict, others not so much), all it will take is for flights to start up again all over the world for there to be a re-seeding of COVID cases to areas where there were none previously. Ease of movement around the world via flights and cruise ships (perfect vectors for disease spread) could mean this never truly gets under control. I don't know what the answer is except a vaccine rolled out to everyone worldwide. That's a really tall order.

Posted by
1067 posts

Besides the virus, the stock market has to recover before I can travel again.

Posted by
1039 posts

Apart from anything else, there might be very few flights if the economy keeps going south......a lot of airlines out of business, or near enough, already.
I'm sure it will all rebound.....one day, but not this year.

Posted by
20566 posts

Recovering stock market is the least of the concerns at the moment. The market is future oriented and does not like uncertainty. We will be fine once a path out of this mess is established but that could take a while. We could use stronger leadership on this issue but that too may come in time. This is a medical driven crises and not an economic caused crises. If show how an effective vaccine was announced on Jan 1, the market would have a recorded breaking day on Jan 4th. At the moment the value of our portfolio is not critical as long as the cash flow is maintained. We are in good shape but have concerns about our sons.

Posted by
1380 posts

If it was just me, I would go after the experts say it is reasonable to do so. And then I would go home and quarantine.

However …. my parents (in their late 70's) watch my dog while I travel. I live in California. They live in Colorado. I fly there first and bring the dog to them, visiting them for a week or 10 days before and after my trips, then flying back home with the dog.

But I sure don't want to bring the virus back home to them.

They might have to drop the dog at the Denver airport and tell her which gate to find me at to catch her flight home :-)

Posted by
1503 posts

We are hoping to travel within the US for a family vacation in July. But we will likely cancel/postpone a trip we have planned for Eastern Europe in October.

We traveled to New Zealand and Australia in March and spent a good portion of the trip uncertain as to how or if we’d be able to get home. Australia was ‘closed’ when we got there so we had to cut the trip short. I spent 7 hours on the phone rescheduling flights and another couple of hours cancelling hotels and excursions. We’re just not too excited about going through that again anytime soon.

Posted by
3945 posts

I don’t anticipate that things will be back to “normal” this year, whatever normal will look like - likely fewer airlines and therefore higher costs due to less competition.

Insurance isn’t going to cover any Coronavirus issues going forward, so I have scrapped plans for a costly long haul holiday to India in January 2021, as I won’t go out of Europe next year.

We need to be sure that there’s not a second wave of the virus in the autumn before I am prepared to get on a flight. I had planned, but not booked a trip to the Canary Islands in November and I don’t envisage that this trip will happen.

Posted by
506 posts

I want to go to Europe as soon as possible (had to cancel August trip), but I’m thinking it’s going to be a long wait. I’m a teacher and if we are not able to travel until fall, that means Christmas break would be the first opportunity for me to travel. If it looks like a vaccine will be available in the spring, I probably would wait until then. I’ve been very sick and hospitalized living overseas and it’s not an experience I want to repeat!

Posted by
323 posts

It goes without saying restrictions are lifted. I have a trip in September. I would need to see the stats of new cases popping up in the cities I want to visit. The virus is not going away quite yet, but if The new cases are low, in par with my own location, then i would feel relatively comfortable.

Posted by
335 posts

I'm supposed to travel to:

  • Northern California in June for a camping trip (probably canceled since Newsom says the peak won't hit until mid-May)

  • Kelowna, Canada in late September (still a possibility, and please let the US:CAD stay where it is right now!)

  • Best of Tuscany in 2021: Hopefully still on, but a lot is going to depend on the economy in the next 12 months.

-- Mike Beebe

Posted by
2278 posts

My wife and I are in that high risk age group, both with some underlying health issues. So, no international travel for us until there is a good vaccine. This year we’ve canceled trips to see our grandchildren, a trip to Kauai, and a RS tour. When things get less restrictive, when it is deemed safe, we will visit our grandchildren but via road trips rather than flying. We love seeing them via FaceTime every day but they are ages 1, 11/2, 4 so they are growing fast and we are missing so much of these wonderful times. I think strictly domestic travel avoiding crowded places will be the norm for us in the foreseeable future.

Posted by
113 posts

When there is a vaccine, so not until later in 2021...maybe not until 2022?

Posted by
109 posts

I have flights booked into Paris mid September, returning from Rome mid October. If things are open and the flights go, I’ll be there.

Posted by
2401 posts

We have put all of our travel plans, foreign and domestic, on hold indefinitely. We are both nearing 70, and I have a chronic respiratory problem; so travel in the age of COVID 19 puts us at much greater risk. I see a lot of people say they won't travel until there is a readily available vaccine. I've also seen the estimates of anywhere from 1-2 years before that happens. Given the failure to produce effective vaccines against Corona viruses that have produced other epidemics, I'm not nearly as optimistic that this will even happen. So that leaves us waiting for either getting the virus and surviving it to acquire immunity, or depending on herd immunity once a sufficient percentage of the world's population has had it. In either case, I doubt we will be going anywhere for the foreseeable future.

Posted by
53 posts

We'd like to go to our trip to Florence/Tuscany when this is over in September/October but, I have my doubts. It wont be really over until there's a vaccine but, if WHO and CDC opens travel and numbers are reduced heavily then yes I'd go without one. My husband and I are really bummed the trip was cancelled and I'm trying to look for a silver lining that we'll be able to go sooner rather than years from now.

Posted by
2365 posts

When a vaccine is available. Too risky before then, no matter how much we want to go.

Posted by
1484 posts

I found an incredibly cheap airfare in September over Labor Day. And I’m still debating so that may be when I travel. I’m seriously considering buying thr airfare and rolling the dice. If. I can’t go it’s not that much money ($300 ) and if I can’ go it’ll be good to help out the economy everywhere. So I’m thinking

But I am in good health and don’t have any underlying conditions. If I had to come home under some kind of quarantine I can work remotely without a problem

From what I have read I would consider late August or early September as possible there’s a theory with this thing could spike back up as people get into more enclosed contained environment. For that reason I probably would not travel over the winter this year. I think there might be a brief period towards the end of summer where it’s fairly safe, not perfectly safe but fairly safe

Posted by
1398 posts

I’m hoping to go to south Pacific in Sept. If that’s not possible, I hope o go to Maine or the Dakotas.

Posted by
3768 posts

If things are up and back to normal by Aug 1, then I’ll take my trip planned for next month and move it to Sept. If we couldn’t go before mid Oct then will plan for next May.

My husband will be 55 and I’m under 50 and in relatively good health. Non smokers, neither of us have ever had pneumonia and I can’t even rem that we’ve ever had influenza...colds is about as bad as we get. That being said, I always get a cold when we travel, so I’d def take more precautions with sanitizer and whatnot.

If we can’t go overseas but can travel within Canada, might just finally visit Newfoundland since it’s close by.

Posted by
10681 posts

I will travel when I can
1. Leave the United States mainland
2. Land at my destination with no requirement to self quarantine
3. Return to the United States mainland with no requirement to self quarantine

I am not too hung up on vaccines. The common flu vaccine has only been 19% to 55% effective depending on the year, but I suspect this one will be at the higher end because it is focused on one target. I might be a bit more hung up on recognized and proven treatment plans. I suppose there are circumstances that might change my mind when the time comes, but that's how it looks today.

Oh, if I cant get to Europe and Hawaii opens up first, thats where I am going. I just need to get out of here.....

Posted by
36 posts

We had to cancel our trip to Palm Springs in April. We have flights to Portugal in October. I really hope to go, but not at the cost of my health or anyone else's.

Posted by
885 posts

Not until after the quarantines are lifted and that will be probably next year as China is still finding new cases. I know of people who have been fit and healthy getting the virus, so people saying they can't get it because they are young and healthy are dead wrong. Plus if I do get sick, I'd rather be home and seeing my own doctor rather than being in a foreign country.

Sadly, I've had to postpone my Germany trip for the second year this year. First was because I lost my job, now because of the virus. But my parents are older and I live nearby so I'd rather keep them healthy. Life won't get back to normal for quite awhile despite what some people think. I'm just glad we have the hospitals and medicines unlike the Spanish flu or the bubonic plague in the past. We are very lucky to live when and where we do.

Posted by
2213 posts

I can't see going anywhere til there's a vaccine, as many have said. But when it's available...will it be available to everyone who wants it? Will a demographic other than yours receive it first? It seems this disease is harder on men than women, will men go first?

Would you get at the front of the line for a new vaccine? I would not.

How many different vaccines will ultimately be available, say, within 2-3 years? Would you prefer to wait some amount of time to see personal/physical reactions/experiences with a new vaccine? I think I may.

Would it surprise anyone if China was first to market with a vaccine? Would you use that vaccine, or would you be curious what country/company will be second?

There is so so much to figure out, I do not believe Americans will be flying to Europe regularly and in economically viable (at least for the average traveler) numbers for two years.

Posted by
331 posts

I think my traveling days have taken a long term hiatus.
Over the last year or a bit more I have taken a large financial hit in order to take care of my father as he requires a trip to the dr twice a week.

And now this on top of that and frankly I will be lucky if I can afford a trip the Dairy Queen when this is over.
I was starting a side gig doing wood working (clocks and furniture and such) but that dried up fast.
Add in my dads fragile health and as long as I have him I think I will curtail traveling anyway.

So between my dads fragile health the economic impact of taking car of him and the lost wages and now this hit to the economy I think it will be a VERY long time before I travel anywhere.

Posted by
3931 posts

The moment after local stay-home orders and travel restrictions are lifted.

Us too. We're in the higher risk age group, but have no health problems at all.

Posted by
1484 posts

Hawaii seems to have made it clear that they don’t want our tourism dollars. So I’ll go to the Caribbean if I can’t go to Europe and if I want to go someplace in United States there’s always Puerto Rico. Their economy can certainly use some tourism

Posted by
67 posts

I would go in Oct for our not-yet-cancelled-and-still-booked tour of Spain.

Posted by
78 posts

Possibly late 2021 for any international trip I would feel safe to consider. I’ll do more traveling in the US until then. There’s still a lot I haven’t seen in the US.

Posted by
5448 posts

RE: Hawaii seems to have made it clear that they don’t want our tourism dollars.

It is not that Hawaii does not want your tourist dollars but wants to prioritize the health of its residents. Other states like CA, OR and WA issued stay at home orders to "flatten the curve" at the expense of their economies. Those states and HI prioritized life over dollars.

While tourist travel is important to Hawaii's economy, tourist travel is non-essential travel. Hawaii's stay at home order applies to everyone, locals and tourist.

Statewide Stay-at-Home Order: March 25-April 30, 2020

Effective March 25, 2020 at 12:01 a.m. through April 30, 2020,
everyone in the State of Hawai‘i is required to stay at home or in
their place of residence. This supplement to Governor David Ige’s
emergency proclamation was announced on March 23, 2020.

Under the proclamation, individuals may leave their home or place of
residence only for essential activities, to engage in essential
businesses and operations, and only if their work cannot be conducted
through remote technology from home.

BTW Grounded and cancelled lights have stranded American on Caribbean islands during the Coronavirus crisis. Flights to and from Hawaii for essential travel continue.

Event: The U.S. Embassy in Bridgetown, Barbados has coordinated with
the commercial carrier – Seaborne Airlines/Silver Airways – to
facilitate a flight from Bridgetown (BGI) to San Juan (SJU), Puerto
Rico (U.S.A.) tomorrow, Tuesday, April 7 to repatriate U.S. citizens
and U.S. Legal Permanent Residents.

Posted by
3118 posts

International travel for me is on hold for at least 18 months. That is the minimum time for a vaccine to be developed according to the projections I have seen. Even then, will enough places be back in business, enough planes be flying, and enough countries be open to visitors again to allow me to go where I want and see what I want?

I have more pressing travel needs at the moment. The job I had ended in January. I was supposed to be moving to Texas now. Several problems with that. No interstate movers are available from the ones I checked with. I could do a PODS type move where I pack everything into the pod and then they deliver it when I schedule. I could just abandon my place and pack what will fit in the car and drive. But roadside stops and restaurants along the way do not have open restrooms. Pulling over and doing my business in the weeds does not appeal to me. Most hotels/motels/ between here and where I need to be are also closed or have very minimal service (i.e no meals even if you can get a room). And once I get there? Minimum 2 weeks quarantine. This also proves difficult due to finding a place to stay (family is out because of their own high risk profiles). So I just sit here, paying the inflated month-to-month rent and hope the curve flattens a lot really soon. At least I have enough toilet paper, for now.

Posted by
3118 posts

Hawaii seems to have made it clear that they don’t want our tourism dollars

There have been factions in Hawaii for many years that want nothing to do with the rest of the US and most of the world regardless of the fact that the entire island chain depends on the very people they claim to hate for jobs and most of their existence. Maybe they have a good reason to feel this way, but this is not the spot to discuss that. They have been more vocal about it in recent weeks with protesters blocking the airport arrivals for example. But the state government's lock down was not due to those groups protests. It is simply a way to try and reduce the spread of the virus through the population there. You could still fly there today if you wanted. You would just have to quarantine yourself for at least 2 weeks before you could go out in public. This applies to Hawaii residents as well a tourists. Tourism will return in full force when Hawaii feels it is safe enough.

Posted by
38 posts

We are planning a driving trip to Nova Scotia in early September. Still a go. If we can't get in to Canada, we'll go to Maine. If the country is still shut down. well, we're in a heap of trouble. We'll be in remote areas, away from crowds...we think. Still planning on a trip to Germany in December, but it's more a wait and see thing. We're retired, so we don't have to worry about asking for vacation time at work, so we can be flexible. I'm not waiting for a vaccine to travel, but neither am I traveling when tourist sites are all closed and we're told to stay home. I'm booking everything refundable. We will see. I don't think anyone can predict what's going to happen.

Posted by
1484 posts

A friend of mine came back from Hawaii just as this was all blowing up. She had actually been there working. People threw things at her. They called her names and wait staff at restaurantS told her they were not waiting on her she need Ed to go home. Let me point out that she was a healthcare worker. She came home.

I figure if you’re going to treat people who are there working like that you don’t need my cash

Posted by
30 posts

I think European travel is done for 2020. Italy and Spain are not coming back online anytime soon. There will have to be a vaccine before people will feel comfortable. I know some people will chance it but not enough to bring back the economy. Personally, I see a lot of domestic travel in late 2020 and 2021. I will travel with RS again but not for a while.

Posted by
9388 posts

August 31 if all goes well and the country we are traveling to will accept us. Keeping ever-optimistic and sticking to my philosophy to postpone nothing!

Bought the tickets long ago. Not sure what insurance we will be able to purchase, though. We just get a medical evacuation coverage and I won’t buy until closer to the date of travel with all of the unknowns.

Posted by
157 posts

Today was the day that I had planned on flying to Amsterdam for a trip with friends, so hopefully next April I will be able to go then. My husband and I are hoping to be able to go to Disney World in late August to meet our son & daughter in law there after her work conference. We also have reservations for a U.S. national parks trip in September, but things will have to be very different for me to feel comfortable in making these trips.

Posted by
3080 posts

Keeping fingers crossed that health conditions and travel regulations allow our July 4th, 2020 flight to Scotland. Deadline for canceling hasn’t come yet, so we’re not throwing in the towel. Although the British Open getting cancelled today doesn’t make things look any more positive. Still, it’s 3 months off, and a lot can happen, good or bad, with this fast-moving pandemic. I hope that people get better, and that this horrible deadly virus meets the end of its run very, very soon, even if our travel plans get squelched for a while. In the meantime, staying home, washing my hands to the point of cracking and chapping, and waiting for better times ahead.

Posted by
10681 posts

Hawaii, Maine; there are nutz at the 4 corners of the earth. So it is, so it has always been.

Funny, I am watching my as of yet un-purchased flights to Europe in early June. Tracking the fare on Google Flights. It goes up and down every other week by about $250. But still being sold. Most excellent. Just made some pre-Christmas travel plans for daughter and I as well. Oh, and if some RS folks pick a date to meet up in Budapest, I will be there.

Mark, welcome to Houston.

I imagine sooner rather than later there will be no question that one curve has well past the other, both here and abroad; then I am off. But only time will tell.

Posted by
992 posts

Several have made what I think is the prudent decision to await a vaccine, as nothing is certain until that happens.

The risk of contracting COVID-19 is very real until there is a vaccine. What we are experiencing now likely just the first wave. The virus can be asymptomatic for days, thus you and everyone around you could appear perfectly healthy.

Having said that I'll go crazy if I can't go somewhere, although being confined with a lot of people in an enclosed environment for hours doesn't seem like a great idea. Maybe a road trip? There are a lot of pitfalls with that idea, too. Well... maybe just day trips or overnights in state. Ugh.

Posted by
561 posts

Economists have made this rather obvious prediction that the economy (any economy) won't really recover until people can return to work safely without rapidly falling ill. That will be true everywhere. Otherwise we will have multiple waves of infections/shutdowns. Therapeutic treatments will help, as will a vaccine eventually. Destinations will have to be able to reopen to handle travelers. Some locations in 2021 will probably be possible, but not all, and possibly not many.

Posted by
337 posts

I am in New York, with a sibling in the Midwest and parents on the West Coast.

I don't think I will see my parents in person until December 2020 at the earliest (when I normally travel to California for the holidays) -- they're older and while I think that the coronavirus will let up in the summer, I expect to see another peak in the fall/winter. I won't feel comfortable traveling to see my parents until I've seen what the resurgence in fall/winter looks like. If it looks bad, I may not make that December trip at all.

For long haul/transatlantic travel, I don't foresee going until 2021 -- specifically I was traveling to a wedding in the UK in May 2020, which was postponed to May 2021 a year later. Hopefully it will be safer to travel by then.

On the bright side, I'm taking this time to improve my Spanish, trying to get it to the same level as my French, and hopefully I can deploy it in Spain in 2021! (I know of course it's possible to travel in many places in Europe with English, basic greetings and phrases, and an understanding of local politeness and etiquette, but especially as a solo traveler I've found it a much more enriching experience to be able to have conversations in the local language.)

Posted by
8490 posts

All my bags are packed
I'm ready to go

As soon as the areas I wish to visit start saying it's safe for tourists, I'm gone.

I have a three month around the world trip temporarily planned to start in October. I hope it will go ahead. I also hope I can get away before that.

Posted by
407 posts

My husband and I had to cancel a trip to the Dordogne area of France in late April.......so sad to do so. He and I have both had the virus.....hubby had a horrendous nausea bout with it and I was blessed to have hardly any symptoms. We are both recovering.....and can dream of nothing more wonderful now that planning another trip to Europe this fall.....especially since the FF points are very good right now. Certainly do not want to go to a country where things will be closed. I just keep thinking that by then things will be much improved and we will know more.....we always take a Europe trip each year.....usually springtime.....and we will miss it so this year! We are both 68....but are very healthy and active with no preexisting conditions. We are thinking of getting our airline tickets for September and canceling later if we have to.......we can dream!

Posted by
69 posts

We have a trip to England and Paris leaving on September 16th. Got our fingers crossed that we'll still be able to go.

Posted by
11417 posts

Hard to say when we'll feel comfortable enough to book the next trip but that initial venture will likely be domestic, and it's looking doubtful that it'll be this year. Yep, a tested, effective vaccine would make a big difference so fingers are crossed. In the meantime, we'll just be grateful come out of this relatively unscathed. Too many won't. :O(

Posted by
2081 posts

As soon as Hungary allows people from the US I am so there.

Posted by
95 posts

There are still way too many variables. I don't think anyone can answer this question until medical science knows more.

Posted by
2275 posts

I’m hoping to travel domestically later this year. I will do so if allowed and if it seems reasonably safe. I might drive a fairly long way instead of flying at this point. I have a list of options, it will depend on the situation at that time. I assume some places will be digging out and struggling and I certainly don’t want to add to any burden.

I have 2 weeks off in June, I was going to go to Portugal but I seriously doubt that now. I’ll probably work those weeks instead and hope to be able to go somewhere in the US in August or September.

As for Europe...hopefully next year but we will see.

Posted by
57 posts

I didn't have any major trips planned for 2020, but have been planning on going somewhere international in 2021 once I finish graduate school. That hasn't changed, but I'm definitely re-thinking the idea of Spain and Portugal as I'd originally hoped. If some sort of antibody testing becomes widely available and I can figure out if I've built up any immunity, that might also factor into my decision. I'd definitely be trying to balance the risk/reward, and the likelihood of being an unknowing carrier to people at higher risk.

Posted by
10681 posts

christa, we are both suffering that one. I imagine first there will be open borders but with quarantine upon arrival, then with time true open borders. But their "quarantine" is pretty much like ours which means you can go out for groceries, exercise, etc, and I would rather be walking along the Danube then my neighborhood. Then you have to worry if Israel will let you back without quarantine?

There is absolutely no way to know when travel becomes practical, but I hope it isnt too far off. Tourism is about 8% of the Hungarian economy and maybe 20% of the economy in Budapest. The income in Budapest is about half that in the US, in rural areas substantially less. Unemployment was twice the US rate before this all happened. So Im not too sure how long they can hold out, or if they should. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Until then, each time i have to move my travel date I send a contribution to a charity in each country that was on my itinerary. My way of saying, sorry, didnt make it, coming soon.

Posted by
266 posts

I was in Egypt, calmly relaxing on a dahabiya on the Nile, when all of this virus mess blew up a few weeks ago. We had to scramble to find a way out of the country when Egypt announced that it was suspending all international flights. Although I made it back to the US safely, the return trip was ... an adventure. I don't want to go through that again.

I am not even thinking about international travel, or even domestic plane travel, until late 2021 at the earliest.

Posted by
5448 posts

New coronavirus spread model suggest reduction in deaths IF shutdown closures continue through August. However Dr. B is only suggesting a shutdown through the end of April (at this juncture). In either case, I wouldn't commit nonrefundable travel dollar for the rest of 2020.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/ihme-updated-covid19-model/index.html

But the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures --
such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August,
and it still predicts tens of thousands of deaths.

While the analysis has been repeatedly cited by Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House's coronavirus response coordinator, the
administration's current guidelines only recommend social distancing
through April 30.

Posted by
2627 posts

I’m hoping I don’t have to cancel my Spain trip late in the year. Of course, Spain would need to open up, the Paradors (where I have my lodging reservations) would also have to open back up, and more importantly, the U.S. government and my employer would need to allow international travel.

Posted by
1869 posts

@Jane,
Thanks for sharing your experience with the COVID-19 Virus. Good to hear you and your husband are recovering. As I've reported in other threads I have a medical/science background for decades. COVID-19 is a novel virus like no other I've seen. That said I have been relying on scientific data. I receive daily updates from the CDC, Department of Health and Dr. Anthony Fauci. At this point there is no definitive proof that Hydroxychoroquine and Azithromycin (Z-Pak) works against COVID-19. In addition, to claim that “EVERY" person should have this in their medicine cabinet is anecdotal and off label. I will also add that the two drugs are contraindicated with certain cardiac conditions, etc. It's recommended to contact your healthcare provider if symptomatic.

As Agnes stated, "we're in the beginning stages into this, with no clear roadmap to follow."
I agree. Looking to the future I am hoping for anti-viral drugs and a COVID-19 Vaccine. In addition Influenza Vaccine is also highly recommended. (As mentioned upthread the Flu Vaccine can have efficacy issues.). I would not defer due to this. If you do get the Flu chances are you would have a milder case. This can prevent secondary infections like Pneumonia as well.

We will continue to dream about travel and can only hope for a safe, healthy future.

Posted by
408 posts

My trip to Spain is in October unless it needs to be cancelled. I guess I will wait to see if the airline cancels my flights. If the airline hasn't cancelled my flights 1 to 4 weeks before my trip, I will have to:
- Check whether the travel restrictions are still in effect
- see if staying in hostels is still micro-biologically safe. I have reservations to 4 hostels and one hotel.
- check whether my hostels and hotel will be open or if they have gone out of business
- check whether the Alhambra and museums were open the day before, whether the sites will still be open when I arrive
- Transportation in Spain would have to be operating and not be a risk of infection
- There can't be any need for quarantining after arriving in Spain or after returning to Michigan
I am 36, with no known health problems; my great-grandfather with my same last name had a heart attack and died when he was 39.

Posted by
16 posts

I'll be travelling once this is all over and the dust has settled, which I'm guessing will be 2022 at the earliest and probably more like 2023 or 2024, maybe even 2025 or 2026 if things go badly.

Before you call me a pessimist, consider the following:

  • The Spanish flu lasted about three years and came in multiple waves.
  • Global air travel resulted in the rapid spread of the virus around the world in a matter of several weeks. Nearly every country in the world has now closed its borders to non-essential travel and I can't imagine any country is going to open its borders anytime soon and start letting people in because that would cause the virus to start circulating rapidly again.
  • There's no guarantee that an effective vaccine can be developed and even if one can be developed there's no guarantee it'll be ready in 12-18 months. Also, once the vaccine is developed, it will take many months to mass manufacture it and get everyone vaccinated.
  • Once herd immunity is achieved (either by the virus infecting the vast majority of the population and/or an effective vaccine being developed) and the pandemic fizzles out, it's going to take a while for things to return to normal and restarting international travel and tourism is probably going to be a low priority for most countries. It's possible that in some countries the situation may improve enough by next year that limited domestic tourism will be allowed which will help the tourism industry start to get back on its feet, although a lot of damage will have been done by then.
Posted by
502 posts

I, along with many others on this thread, am anxiously awaiting a vaccine. However, I can't help but worry that when said vaccine is developed the demand worldwide will be so great that it will have to be rationed out. I imagine those at greatest risk will have it available to them first. There will have to be some kind of protocol as to who gets it and when. So, I won't wait for a vaccine because I don't think I"ll get it right away.

Posted by
1250 posts

My Wife and I had planed a trip to Italy this May and unfortunately it was canceled. If all goes well with things we are planning the trip for May 2021.

Posted by
10681 posts

restarting international travel and tourism is probably going to be a
low priority for most countries.

Unless it makes up a significant part of their economy.

Posted by
20566 posts

Just keep in mind that facts are facts. Anyone can believe anything they want to believe. That is his or her right. But if you try to push it in the public forum, I will push back as everyone should. We have become too complacent in allowing "alternate facts" to be treated as equal to established facts. Unfortunately the internet has become of a great cesspool of mis-information. Controlling or correcting mis-information is not an abridgement of free speech. This is akin to yelling "Fire" in a crowded theater.

Posted by
30 posts

@Frank
Very good post. Personally, I will wait until probably 2021 for Europe, domestically by the summer.

Posted by
10681 posts

I will travel when:
There are flights to choose from that I can afford.
The location I want to visit has open borders and no quarantine (maybe)
I can return to the US with no quarantine (maybe)
And I feel comfortable doing it

Posted by
992 posts

One can choose to travel anywhere if they don't mind getting stuck overseas when the next outbreak occurs, or don't mind being confined in a tube for hours on end. COVID-19 is not going anywhere other than an ebb and flow until there's a vaccine.

For 2020 perhaps a road trip is best assuming anything is open. At least you can drive back home.

Posted by
44 posts

Pains me to write these words, but for the first time in 25 years of travel, we are making no plans to go overseas. Without a vaccine, it seems unlikely that it will be safe for us to fly or visit crowded cities. My husband and I now have an experience based fear of becoming ill overseas. He contracted a campylobacter infection in late 2019 just at the end of our time in Morocco. His hospital stay at our next stop in Malta was a nightmare we don’t want to repeat. Although the doctors were very competent and the medical procedures advanced, the nursing staff, with a couple of exceptions, were some of the meanest people we have ever encountered in our travels. No way are we putting ourselves at risk until this virus can be controlled with mass vaccinations.
Road trips here in the states might be possible. We’ll have to see how things develop. This might be our year to finally buy an RV so we can control the cleanliness of our environment.
I can hardly believe these are my words. We have always been casual about our travel...kind of just going for it, but between the Maltese experience and our fear of this virus...our attitudes have changed.

Posted by
5017 posts

Yeah, I can't remember the last time I didn't have some trip at least sketched-in for the next 24 months. We've been traveling a lot in the past few years, averaging 2-3 foreign trips per year (to Europe and elsewhere - we try to mix things up by going east, west and south), and we had become comfortable with that pace. Got nothing on the calendar right now (not even in light, non-repro blue pencil). At least we squeezed in a bunch of great trips in these past few years. It's gonna be a long year.

Posted by
541 posts

My husband still flies commercially. He has to. You should see the photos. It’s surreal. Rarely anyone in the photos because he’s the only one there. This is at the busiest airport in the world. We’ve canceled a spring break trip to San Diego and a day after school ends trip to St. Barts. We are still planning our Halloween Disney trip though. We are 40 somethings in great health with young kids so as soon as this opens up we are out of here. Maybe not Europe but I hope so. Kids want to see London and I really want to spend at least a week in Budapest. As soon as it looks like being quarantined isn’t likely, we will make some last minute plans and spend as much money as we can.

Posted by
924 posts

Yeah, I can't remember the last time I didn't have some trip at least
sketched-in for the next 24 months.

I've got them sketched out , but I've reached that point now where it isn't as much fun as it used to. My wife and I used to have a 'date' every Sunday morning at the local Tim Horton's coffee shop and we'd bring our laptops, maps and travel guides and map out future travels. When the isolation started we thought we'd just do it at home and not skip a beat, but the fun isn't in it right now.

Posted by
5017 posts

My wife and I used to have a 'date' every Sunday morning at the local Tim Horton's coffee shop and we'd bring our laptops, maps and travel guides and map out future travels...

My wife and I used to go through that routine while we did our neighborhood walks. Now, we take the same walks but just grouse about people who can't seem to understand or maintain a six-foot distance while shuffling through our neighborhood...

Posted by
2297 posts

We are still hoping to go on our US trips in July, but may only eat take-out, not dine-in. July 4 weekend, we're scheduled to go to a beach in Alabama. Later that month, we have a trip planned starting in Omaha, going to Iowa, the Dakotas, and ending in Montana. Our trip consists of outside destinations and interpretive centers. If the latter are closed, we would cancel our trip. I think we could probably avoid a lot of close contact in these, but I hope that everyone we encounter will be wearing masks. I will definitely be packing Chlorox wipes, Lysol spray, hand sanitizer if I can find it, and of course, masks. Honestly, I would do these trips sooner than I will attend big gatherings such as Sunday morning church services.

Posted by
1047 posts

I just remembered, in February I won a voucher for a free hotel stay in north Toronto area. It is valid til August 22nd. I'd say 50/50 I get to use it.

Posted by
74 posts

Like David... my wife and I take at least 2 month + long off season trips per year plus domestic travel. While I don't plan 24 months in advance I always have a future trip ruminating around in my head,along with constant general research. We had to cancel our Bosnia and Croatia plus trip for March 19-April 24, so I can recreate that in short order as the opportunity presents itself. It pains me though to acknowledge that we won't be able to travel in 2020 and perhaps 2021. While I hold out hope that I am being too pessimistic the reality is I won't feel safe until there is a vaccine or some proven anti virials. Being in the age related higher risk group I can't imagine feeling comfortable on a plane packed with people even if we are all wearing n 95 masks , not to mention restaurants, public transport etc. even if things open up. Business and some governments may want to open things up but I will listen to the experts in the field.

Posted by
924 posts

The insight I've been reading with the most interest on this post is from the Seniors. I'm not there yet (mid 50's) but it definitely gives me thoughts I haven't considered in regard to being more susceptible to the Virus, or health issues in general. It's valuable information that I need to keep in mind.

Posted by
763 posts

I am in agreement with MA Traveler. Our RS May tour cancelled and other activities related to our trip. I don’t think travel will be possible for my husband and I in 2020 or possibly 2021. I am sad on this possibility. I have another trip planned but no money put out yet in December. I am unsure about it right now. My main concern right now is hoping my son’s wedding is a go on July 3. I am not planning anything yet and probably won’t

Kim

Posted by
10681 posts

In my circle of seniors (including me) we seem to be a bit less reactive to this than the younger folks. Maybe life experience? Who knows.

Posted by
256 posts

We have a trip to Greece scheduled in September to celebrate our 35th anniversary, my husband's retirement (his last day is tomorrow!) and my 60th. I am trying to temper my optimism with a daily dose of reality. I must say though, if we are not able to go, I will probably take Greece off my list permanently. This is the 3rd time in 10 years I've tried to get there and, if I have to cancel, it will be the 3rd time due to circumstances beyond my control. In all my travels, Greece is the only trip I have ever had to cancel. If it happens again, I'm just going to have to admit, someone, somewhere is trying to keep me away for my own good!

Edit: short answer - yes, if the medical experts deem it safe, our hotels and flights are operating, we will go.

Posted by
21 posts

Besides the virus, the stock market has to recover before I can travel again

The money that came out and deflated the market is still out there. Real interest rates are negative. There is no place to gain any yeild. So the money will return. I expect DJIA to be over 28k, if not 30k by Nov.

I also expect a game-on mentality with regard to leisure/adventure travel to return sooner than most think. All that needs to be done is to remove the bureacrats from the decision making process and the rest will take care of itself.

Posted by
10681 posts

Even "down" the 3 year average is about the 20 year historic average prior to all of this. Yes, I think it's a good time to buy.

Posted by
50 posts

Well I hope i can travel to istanbul in August. Mid September I plan 3 days in Amsterdam and 1 day in Rotterdam.
The highlight would be California for Christmas. I would love to see a Lakers game live. I would end this journey with a trip through Mexico. That would be wonderful. Let's see what will happen :D
If none of this will be possible i will stay home in Austria and visit some close relatives...

Posted by
924 posts

I also expect a game-on mentality with regard to leisure/adventure
travel to return sooner than most think.

I've thought about this a lot and am very curious and tend to lean toward your thinking as long as borders are open with no restrictions. Sadly for the traveler though, this will turn it into a sellers market instead of a buyers for airfare, hotels, etc.

As for the DJIA, I've been piling money into my retirement investments while it's a buyers market hoping to fund my future adventures. Luckily I'm still young enough to recover from the massive hit my savings have taken in the past 6 weeks.

Posted by
74 posts

This is a medical driven crises and not an economic caused crises.

True in part. But, what makes this one so much worse, is that the businesses are so highly leveraged, bull slowing since 2018 (but not falling). We were ripe for a downturn globally, it was just held off by Pump and incentives. So we have a double wammy...not sure anything looks the same after this.

But back on the original question, I would like to go at the end of September. Just not at all sure that is going to happen. It's wait and see what each day brings.

Posted by
6061 posts

I also expect a game-on mentality with regard to leisure/adventure
travel to return sooner than most think.

What's a "game-on mentality" look like when record numbers of people are unemployed, 73% of worldwide air traffic capacity is down, and airlines are bleeding cash like crazy? Is this a joke? It's not just a demand-side problem, it's also a supply-side problem. Sure, wealthy people will always have resources, including private jets or charters to get around and plenty of money for international trips, but what about Average Joes affected by vast economic changes? It's not like you can just flip a switch as if nothing happened over the past month or so - the ground looks a lot different than before. That goes for the entire travel sector, including airlines.

"The Devastated Travel Industry, by the Numbers" (sorry, I realize there's a paywall on Wall Street Journal, but not much I can do about that)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-devastated-travel-industry-by-the-numbers-11586959775?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1
Excerpt:
"6" -The number of years it took the airline industry to recover from 9/11. I think this may be the most significant number for the travel industry right now. Destruction from the coronavirus pandemic is greater than the 2001 terrorist attacks. Recovery will be tougher, too.

After 9/11, it was clear what fixes needed to be made—hardened cockpit doors, stepped-up airport screening, vetting of potentially dangerous passengers. It’s less clear what the fixes will be coming out of this health emergency."

Posted by
323 posts

I had a Zoom conversation last night with friends. One is a flight attendant of at least 30 years, she works with Delta and is furloughed until July. I was telling her about my September trip to Italy and all the concerns I have (that I’ve read here on TA and my own). She said even if they open the borders, she wouldn’t get on a plane unless it’s essential. I’ve already 99% know it’s a no-go, but that was still disheartening to hear.

Posted by
10681 posts

GAME ON =

There are no travel restrictions
There are flights
Borders are open
There are no mandatory quarantines

What am I missing?

Posted by
6061 posts

What am I missing?

You didn't mention any safety protections (whether vaccine, or interim protections in case of no vaccine, or therapeutic treatments that are proven to work, or even thermal scans or other testing). Most people will not get on planes or travel anywhere if they don't feel it's safe to do so. It's not just old people. 54 million Americans (27% of adults under 65) have some kind of pre-existing condition.

Posted by
1869 posts

Thanks Agnes. The only thing I will add is "The Virus dictates the timeline." Dr. Anthony Fauci.

Posted by
67 posts

Funny, I live next door to a flight attendant for AA and he didn't express the same worry as poster up thread. He is still working thankfully and healthy.

It's been interesting to see the different perspectives people have. We have everything from the sky is falling to everything is alright and all that's in between. I think I'm somewhere in the middle.

Posted by
2070 posts

I have tours in Patagonia and Antarctica scheduled next March. If they go, I will go. I had planned to go to Prague and Budapest in November, but not made any reservations. I would still love to go, but I think the odds are low.

I would like to get traveling again as soon as possible because my husband and I are in our mid/late 60s and healthy, and these are the golden years of travel for us. Who knows how long this will last? But I don’t want to get the virus when I’m away from home, and I don’t want to have to quarantine. So I just don’t know.

Posted by
23 posts

One is a flight attendant of at least 30 years, she works with Delta and is furloughed until July.

Probably took a voluntary furlough with partial pay and other incentives ... flight attendants with that much seniority usually fly the long hauls so they can finish their monthly hours with 3-4 roundtrips from ATL or another gateway to international destinations ... they don't want to go back to the grueling days that now fall to the junior flight attendants and risk getting sick ... why not stay home and get paid to do it

Funny, I live next door to a flight attendant for AA and he didn't express the same worry as poster up thread. He is still working thankfully and healthy.

Probably doesn't have that much seniority and has to fly since those with more seniority probably took AA's voluntary furlough ... 25% pay, full benefits and no loss of seniority to stay home for up to 12 months in 3 month increments ...

Posted by
67 posts

DQ I don't know his seniority but he is older than me & it's my understanding he's been with AA for many, many years. He was offered the furlough but chose not to take it. He said he's been 2 - 3 flights a week on average if that.

I don't get the impression he doesn't have seniority & I would be surprised if he doesn't but I can't say with certainty.

My only point was about perspectives and how interesting the varied responses are.

Posted by
992 posts

A vaccine or proof of immunity to COVID-19 seems prudent before large numbers of people are confined in any cylinder or enclosed areas like a bus or museum for hours at a time. My two cents.

COVID-19 is three times more contagious than the seasonal flu. Wiping down your tray ain't gonna cut it.

I'd be careful with anecdotal accounts such as, "My husband is a business traveler and he's not worried" and instead look at what epidemiologists are saying about the future of this virus absent a vaccine.

Posted by
8490 posts

GAME ON =There are no travel restrictions
There are flights.
Borders are open.
There are no mandatory quarantines

I agree with James. For others, this will not be enough. We all have to decide what is right for ourselves but not dictate our beliefs to others.

Some will travel as soon as they can. Some will wait until next year. Some will wait until the following year. Others may be too afraid to ever travel again.

Whatever you decide is right for you but may not be right for someone else.

Posted by
992 posts

The Tour de France is scheduled to run through most of September, so maybe the sweet spot for travel is late summer/early fall?

Of course the Tour could still be cancelled if expectations don't work out.

Posted by
16591 posts

CNN just reported that the (US) Department of Defense has extended the travel ban for its personnel to the end of June. The previous end date was May 11. I haven't found this information posted on the Internet yet.

Edited to add: The Canadian Prime Minister has announced the US/Canada border will remain closed to nonessential travel for an additional 30 days. https://apnews.com/61c3b443b1ef44e8a90328bbb7a436c7

Posted by
3118 posts

The short answer to Allan’s question is that I don’t know.

With this coronavirus nightmare, right now I have no interest in traveling. Close family members have gotten sick. I am sick. My husband and I are both furloughed. I was thinking about taking a trip in late autumn and even started a thread about it in the Switzerland forum a couple of weeks ago. But now, travel is not a priority. I am amazing myself by saying that because I’m the kind of person that once I finish a personal trip, I am already planning the next one. I absolutely adore traveling; right now, however, I have zero interest.

I think whenever it is I go, it will be when we are no longer wearing masks on a daily basis and it will probably be to Germany to visit close friends. Simple and comforting. They want us to come in November; that seems unrealistic right now. Maybe I’m wrong.

Posted by
2297 posts

Continental, I'm so sorry you're having such a rough time. I hope you will all be well soon and that this too, will have passed.