Future travel overseas, vaccines, COVID19 tests and quarantine

You're not a newbie to this site. How many other threads are there about the exact same subject? Asking about what is going to happen in the future.

The answer to those and this one as well is......No One Knows.

If you can make reservations that are fully refundable, go ahead. If not, you are throwing the dice. The old rules of making non-refundable air/hotel/whatever reservations months in advance is out the window.

Make a list of all the unknowns and knowns at this point (for not only the US but the places you're planning to tour). Revisit them periodically. See what changes in a positive direction, note what doesn't. Make (or not make) further plans accordingly.

Geovagriffith, I would wait as late as possible to book any and all flight, hotel reservations, all should be fully refundable and of course, just plan on paying more for everything.
I am hoping that there will be a rapid test for covid by fall. That way, if you were to get a false positive result, you could quickly take another test. Also, you would have your vaccine paperwork.

I hope your trips go smoothly, I am very optimistic that international travel will be happening this summer.

https://www.cruisecritic.com/articles.cfm?ID=5822&et_cid=3395159&et_rid=17221689&et_referrer=Boards

vaccine passports

Please see the post I just wrote in the England section.

Cheers.

As others have said, no one knows what the situation will be at any point this year, but I am less optimistic about intercontinental travel than some posters. You are proposing to visit/transit through numerous countries, all of which could change their entry requirements at very short notice, where one change could completely scupper the rest of your holiday.

If your airline requires a negative test taken within 72 hours of your flight, how easy is this going to be to organise in Africa? This is what the U.K. has started demanding as of today for all arrivals. It will need to be the longer PCR test, which seems to be more accurate than the 20-30 minute test.

The U.K. is suggesting today that it will be December before all adults here will get their second vaccine dose. I don’t know what Italy’s vaccination programme is, but the U.K. has currently vaccinated more of the population than Italy.

If you are planning any international travel this year, you must book flexible tickets or be prepared to lose your money or leave it until the last moment and pray that the ticket cost isn’t too painful. Your acceptable stress levels must be higher than mine, as personally, I wouldn’t be contemplating either trip until next year. I think cruises will be the last form of transport that gets the green light.

East Africa safari this July? I’m not certain I’d be intending to do that. You’ll be outside a lot, but with people still around ... and are you vaccinated now, or on track for that already?

We’re scheduled to leave for Italy on Sept. 21, and arriving on the 22nd, so that will, officially, be a totally Fall trip. We’ve booked round-trip flights and one one-week stay at a Tuscan agritourismo (totally refundable up until Aug. 1), but everything else remains unreserved and unplanned for now.

I’m scheduled for my first shot tomorrow - I hope that actually happens, and that the 2nd dose in a month does, too - but my husband’s in the group of “everybody else,” so that could be a while before he’s vaccinated. Then, there’s the matter of us still staying safe for some time and keeping others safe, as well, so masks will continue to be a wardrobe choice into the near future. Get 2 tests done if you think one might be a false positive - maybe insurance against a disastrous curve ball thrown into your plans?

I hope your trips go without a hitch, but do what you need to do for your own safety and peace of mind in the meantime! Odds are that a 95% effective vaccine will give you satisfactory negative test results.

I had my first dose of the Pfizer vaccine Jan 11 and the second dose is scheduled in a couple of weeks.

We had planned to stop over in Amsterdam for a few days prior to going on to Kenya, but will likely not stop over in Europe.

COVID19 testing will likely be with us for a while, even with widespread vaccinations.

Make a list of all the unknowns and knowns

but there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns.... or something like that

Hmmmmm— sounds vaguely familiar, Nigel . . .

I wouldn't get hysterical about "expensive travel insurance" and so forth. That's hyperbole. Book your vacations and ensure there is a provision to delay and reboot to 2022 if necessary. I've found this easy to do as businesses want you back if this year is a total bust, which it won't be at all, but a nod to the naysayers.

Taking bets here.

Thanks everyone for all the intelligent comments.

I love to plan and have been planning this safari for over two years. The safari was originally scheduled for July 2020, but was moved to 2021 because of COVID-19.
Our safari is with a responsible tour company. Except for our first night in Nairobi, all our time will be out in the bush with our private tour of four person, all family members.

We have a visit scheduled to a Masai Village, not sure that will be a go.

My wife and I have both received our first dose of the Pfizer vaccine. Even though we will have taken the vaccine, testing may still be required. Not sure if testing will be required for our return flights. I will ask the tour company about that.

Wishing everyone safe travels.

I agree with Emma. There is no 100% guarantee that something won't get sick with something, somewhere, some how, some time.

There is no 100 percent guarantee of anything. Well, most anything.

I would think a tour company would have some answers about testing, as that would be a common question.

Ohhhhh, nvm.

The transatlantic cruise back will be more than 7 days and won‘t be allowed unless the CDC changes its mind

I just found Delta has extensive policy on testing both to and from the USA to Rome, Italy.
https://www.delta.com/us/en/travel-update-center/covid-tested-flights/italy-covid-tested-flights

There is guidance for testing prior to boarding your flight in Rome going back to the USA:
Step-By-Step FCO Airport Experience
Check In
We ask that customers originating in FCO arrive 4 hours prior to departure to ensure you’re able to complete testing on time. Go directly to the testing facility before checking-in with the airline. Visit Alitalia’s website for directions to the COVID-19 Test Area, opens in a new window at the FCO airport

Testing will be available at Terminal 3 ground level starting at 6am CET. For customers connecting at FCO, please proceed to gate E11 to complete testing.

Take a Rapid Test
Customers can expedite the airport testing process by prefilling in information within the FCO In-Airport Testing Form, opens in a new window, before they get to the airport.

Definitely go to Africa. My family - myself, husband, daughter, and son in law went on a safari to Tanzania during Christmas (Dec 2020). We were outdoors most of the time and in small camps - everyone was so welcoming to us. We met mostly Europeans, a few Americans and had a wonderful trip. Nothing was crowded.
We did need to get an unplanned Covid Test in Zanzibar to connect through Amsterdam back to Atlanta. They changed the requirements on Dec 29. Our hotel helped us and even though it was over New Year’s we managed to get our paperwork in 48 hours and be on our Jan 2 flight home.

I did quarantine for 10 days when we returned home even though we had gotten negative test results. Unexpected things can always happen when you travel and the ever changing requirements are something we will all have to get used to.

I have a trip to France planned in May which probably won’t be possible but am hoping our month in Tuscany in September will happen. And I have had my first vaccine shot...

Somewhat late on this, but there are some comments on testing, and as I work in a testing lab, I might be able to clarify.

"I have read that false positives are not uncommon with COVID testing." A recent study puts false positives as high as 4% - BUT most PCR tests (seen as gold standard) test for at least two "targets" - different gene sectors. Regulations differ country to country, but in the UK, our guidelines suggest that akll positives should be checked against a secondary target. False negatives are a far greater problem, usually because of poor sample quality.

Rapid testing - I work in a hospital environment, so things are obviously different. We have a couple of tests that give highly accurate results within 75 minutes - there is a global shortage of the reagent kits, so we are rationed , and they are very expensive (About 10x the cost of a standard PCR test). Some of our staff and patient screening is done by a cartridge kit - results available in 15 minutes - but these are only reliable where people have high viral loads.

I'm very sceptical about flying and negative test requirements. In an ideal world, it will really make a difference - but there have already been reports of rogue laboratories selling negative test certificates. I'm hoping for a successful vaccine program and that the CDC is correct about herd immunity. PErsonally, I feel any time in 2021 is optimistic.

mltraveler the EU in May might be dreaming. But dreams are a good thing. But there will be options for European (and elsewhere) travel in May. And I suspect some very good and interesting options. I have two trips planned for April. One involves the EU, the other not.

Before all the pre-flight covid test requirements out of the 1.8 billion airline passengers in 2020 there were literally dozens and dozens, and even dozens, of documented COVID transmissions on flights; and it would not surprise me to learn 10x that many undocumented. Granted, with the testing, hundreds and hundreds of those 1.8 billion traveling are doing so on fake test reports. But maybe that will drop off a little among US passengers now that testing is so convenient and inexpensive (mine have all been free).

Then there is the issue of the infection rate. I think it prudent to wait till one is vaccinated. And yes, I know there is a handful of "buts" regarding the vaccines and travel and your health, but ..... the vaccine and the pre-flight COVID test brings the risk factor in line with other risks my life in general and at that point it should be at least as safe for me as going to the grocery store.

So with a vaccine the concept of going and getting there isn't the issue for me at least.

Right now I have three issues to resolve before I go anywhere.
1. They have to want tourism as evidenced by their border restrictions, government attitude and marketing. I don't want to be some place where I am not wanted. Right now that takes the EU off the table.
2. It has to be a place I am interested in. Travel for the sake of travel is a waste of money.
3. The things that one would travel to see and do must be open. If they aren't, why go?

There are currently a handful of countries in Europe that meet 1 and 2 and look to be on the way to fulfilling 3. So its wait and see. But its all very personal. I can easily spend a week in (literally "in") a river in the Balkans fly fishing if I can get a good dinner at the end of the day.

But nothing without the vaccine first.

I agree with James’ 3 points. We won’t be going overseas till we are vaccinated, and since we are under 65, barely, who knows when that will be, especially here in NY. If possible, we will try and do some domestic travel, by car, this year. Again, points 1, 2, and 3 will apply.

CDC requires anyone returning to the USA having a COVID-19 test and it can be the PCR test that takes 2-3 days for the results or the quick antigen test that is like the nose swab with quick results. Both are acceptable.

Our July/August 2021 safari in Kenya/Tanzania will require us returning to the USA from Killimanjaro Airport. We will be traveling in the bush for 8 days, so where the heck to we get tested. We are hoping we will be able to do that at the airport. We may have to stay an extra day just to get tested.

geovagriffith --- It would be highly unlikely that there would be testing available at the Mt. Kili Airport. However, the 1x/day international bound flight stops in Dar Es Salaam, the capital of Tanzania for about 50 minutes before continuing on to Amsterdam. It's probably also unlikely and unrealistic to think such testing would be available at the Dar airport as passengers are normally discouraged from disembarking during the brief stop. Hopefully it would be possible to get a test in (or at the Schiphol Airport) Amsterdam which might require a brief stopover. Of course, that brings up the complication of whether the Netherlands would allow you to enter (more than transiting through) without a negative test.
So many unknowns at this time, however, if my wishing could make it happen I'm sure wishing you get to go. We too were scheduled to be in Africa this coming summer but disappointingly have rescheduled for July, 2022. We still have a trip planned to Italy for September/October.
Our plans for Italy can be canceled up until one month before without loss. For as long as you can cancel without loss you might as well wait and see.
Good luck with your decision making.

Teachers here have had their first round of shots and will get their second ones by late February.

We're already well over 100,000 first doses in this small state.

The vaccine passports are laminated and look like any other official document.

We'll see who is eating crow about international travel by the third quarter.

And who knows what the rules will be 6-7 months from now.

We all want to travel. Im with James E's three points. Further, being vaccinated does not mean you cannot transmit the virus, so testing would be much more important in that case depending on where various locations are with their vaccinations (how close to herd immunity, which is optimistic until late Fall at this rate).

Regardless of how the scientifically illiterate media portrays it, the main purpose of a travel ban is to prevent the quick spread of a disease from one place to another by already infected travelers (as we are currently seeing), not the fear of you personally getting exposed on the aircraft. Quick spread of an new contagion between continents by air travel has been one of the fundamental concerns in the public health community planning for pandemics for decades.

There is emerging and promising empirical evidence the vaccine mitigates transmission.

Israel, Johns Hopkins, and Stanford studies are encouraging.

1. They have to want tourism as evidenced by their border restrictions, government attitude and marketing. I don't want to be some place where I am not wanted. Right now that takes the EU off the table.
2. It has to be a place I am interested in. Travel for the sake of travel is a waste of money.
3. The things that one would travel to see and do must be open. If they aren't, why go?

As of about a week ago Montenegro met criteria 1.

If you see my posts here you know I enjoy my European fly fishing trips. Criteria 2 fulfilled.

The rivers are flowing and the fish will be biting in April and May. Criteria 3 met.

Now I just need my vaccine. First jab scheduled in 2 weeks.

By no means am I a travel guru, but I have learned a few things during my military and 1st responder careers - Semper Gumby. Be flexible, keep options on the table and roll with it, because there will be moments where you want options B or C, and you're forced down K. I have received my first dose b/c of the work we do, for which I am grateful and hopeful will open up options later this summer or fall. A co-worker and I are planning on Belgium and the Netherlands in late September, we've gone as far as booking flights w/ Aer Lingus, an Airbnb in Antwerp and a IHG reward booking in Rotterdam. Are we hopeful? Absolutely, but I also know in 234 days from departure that anything can happen. I had this exact issue at the start of the pandemic last April where I spent everyday for 10 days rebooking a Kuala Lumpur and Singapore visit....it didn't work out, but in hindsight I now have a large DL eCredit to take my wife and daughter abroad in 2022.

Getting to your point on the false positive. I have swabbed nearly 500 co-workers (not a huge #) and I can tell you we have not had one false positive. My wife who works in the same agency, and I have been swabbed nearly a dozen times and no false positives to date. We have built contingencies into this with having a Covid test kit at home for both of us, the state provides them through Vault Health. There are also 2 major testing centers within 30 minutes of us, and a Big 10 school with rapid testing. If we are that concerned about a false positive, we would plan on using one of these additional testing options. It goes back to my original piece of being Semper Gumby. Could a false positive occur? Sure. Am I willing to confirm it with a secondary test if I was asymptomatic and could not trace the source? Absolutely. We live a bubble life right now between our jobs and a 4 month old. It comes down what are the risks I am willing to take long term and do we have the flexibility?

My apologies for the long response. The coffee is kicking in and this has been a wonderful respite from baby duties this morning. Good luck in your decision and wish you the best.

Thanks everyone for many informative comments and the links (James). I just need to be patient and hope for the best.

geovagriffith, i did a bit of research : Naturally this will change. I would suspect on the whole, it will change for the better.

Open European destinations. Several of these countries have loosened their restrictions over the last few weeks. Albania, no test requirement; Armenia, 72 hour test; Belarus, no test requirement; Bosnia & Herzegovina, 48 hour test; Kosovo, no test requirement; Montenegro, no test requirement; North Macedonia, no test requirement; Serbia, test required; Turkey, test required; Ukraine, 48 hour test. If you love rural tourism and nature; its a very good list.

So, one can assume they are welcoming tourism. Next you have to decide if any of these interest you, and if you were to be there, would those things of interest be open? Still really marginal for me except for an extended fishing trip ........... after I get my vaccine.

Many of the countries on the above list require a plane change in a country with restrictions. Turkish Airlines serves a lot of these, but not Armenia, a country I’d return to in a heartbeat one day.

Thats part of the research you would have to do. What airports are open for transit passengers and under what terms.

James,
Many thanks again for your informative and interesting posts. We have been to many of the places you mentioned and enjoyed them all. Have not been to Armenia and that is one for the future.

Armenia, Macedonia and Belarus are the ones I haven't made it to yet. The Balkans are facinating historically, some great cities and trowns, wonderful beaches, spectacular mountains ............ and if you are like me it's hard to beat the fly fishing. I am looking forward to my vaccine and the Spring travel season.

The only thing I'm confident about is the tourism situation will look much better in July than February.

Ignore the "100 percent" commentary as nothing is 100 percent.

That's a gutsy comment, Mike. I figure it's a race between vaccination roll-out and a mutating virus. The US public-health people seem very concerned about February and March. I'm unsure when the experts think our situation will improve noticeably.

As for Europe, we appear to have a better supply of vaccine and probably fewer people infected with the new variants, so I'm not at all sure spring will be better in Europe than in the US.

When the time is appropriate for travel, since it appears the Balkans and possibly Ukraine might be among the first viable options for European Tourism; and since these are among the less visited of the European travel sites. Here is some information some might enjoy. You can ignore the "sport" videos, it just fly fishing.

Montenegro: Sport https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJDpi0kkHqM Tourism https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDyGYhYj3tU

Bosnia & Herzegovina: Sport https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLZZ5e0UsJo Tourism https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuzW1gtO5DQ

Croatia: Sport https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QT0R-d8U4eU Tourism https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyyW5GssEJ8

Serbia: Sport https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFANtOYYRyc Tourism https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aD5Bzs920RU

Albania: Sport https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HOLi70U-bs Tourism https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7tg80Fc6DM

North Macedonia Sport https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDV0N79vGLU Tourism https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99S-msXlIrY

Ukraine: Sport https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaoWmnxjgJM Tourism https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sR_13IyHXg

acraven, there is a thin line between gutsy and stupid.

My fear is that the US situation is going to get much worse before it gets better. That's what's happening to us in Israel, thanks to the UK mutation which appears to have become the dominant one here, and we've seen a few cases with the South African and California mutants too. Spread is much faster and cases are more severe. This is even though about 20% of the population has received 2nd Pfizer shots (I got my 2nd 2.5 weeks ago) and well over 10% more have had 1st shots. We are 3 weeks into our 3rd shutdown (incl closed air and land borders more recently) yet numbers are not declining, though there are strong signs of the efficacy of the vaccinations. In spite of continuing promotion of the benefits/safety of the vaccine, there's still a lot of hesitancy and even resistance. Not an encouraging picture.

Chani, right now at least, our situation in my part of the country, is getting better. I am going to remain positive that this continues, then when things warm up and more vaccine is out there ..... you know the rest. But if you get nervous there, you have a standing offer in two countries.....

G-d Bless and stay safe, friend

James

Bless your 💔, James. I had to scrap a 2-month visit to the US last May. I am still hopeful that I'll be able to go this May. I hope that the US doesn't go through what Israel is going through now. The British variant of the virus is spreading like wildfire and for the first time our hospitals are really struggling. We do enough testing and tracing to track the spread of the variants. I hope that between the current lockdown restrictions and the good vaccination rates, we'll be able to get control of things before the South African variant gets a foothold as the vaccines are not nearly as efficacious against it. It looks like the British variant is in several spots in the US and there isn't enough testing/tracing to know how widespread it is. BTW at at least two of the South African cases are Israelis who caught it in Turkey, one of whom had Covid in August.

OP, if you're planning on going to Tanzania perhaps this will be of interest. Their leader's prescription for fighting COVID is prayer and steam therapy. The WHO is trying to plead with him to take vaccination seriously. "Tanzania stopped publishing coronavirus data in April last year and is now one of a few countries in the world that doesn’t publish any information on the outbreak. Authorities actively discourage the use of face masks, saying the country is free of the disease."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/tanzanian-president-cautions-against-coronavirus-vaccines

Also read the fine print for the Delta flights under the FAQs section - they are not for leisure travelers
https://www.delta.com/us/en/travel-update-center/covid-tested-flights/italy-covid-tested-flights
"This trial is currently only available to Italian citizens, EU members and essential travel between Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) and Rome-Fiumicino International Airport (FCO) and John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) and Rome-Fiumicino International Airport (FCO)."

Ukraine and the Balkans (with the exception of Greece which had tests and quarantines) were open to tourism in summer 2020 so it's highly likely they will also be open in summer 2021.

I spent 3 weeks in Croatia myself and also watched my favourite youtubers who normally go to more far away destinations all travelling across Ukraine, the Balkans, and Turkey this time.

I know. I was in Bosnia in the Spring and Albania in the fall of 2020. Currently the following countries are open Albania, no test requirement; Armenia, 72 hour test; Belarus, no test requirement; Bosnia & Herzegovina, 48 hour test; Kosovo, no test requirement; Montenegro, no test requirement; North Macedonia, no test requirement; Serbia, test required; Turkey, test required; Ukraine, 48 hour test. Ukraine has a very good official site with information on traveling to and in Ukraine under the current situation: https://visitukraine.today/.

Of course the question remains ..... Should you travel?

"Of course the question remains ..... Should you travel?"

There will always be people who will call you an idiot for travelling during a pandemic (I see them on every forum) but you should use your own judgment based on your own circumstances.

Where can you go?
What kind of restrictions are in place there?
What kind of restrictions are you OK with?
Are you at risk of severe covid-19?

Do you have sufficient insurance/funds/travel experience/language skills should unexpected circumstances arise?

Are you prepared to constantly follow the news and able to change your plans at very short notice?

If answers to such questions suggest you will be OK, then go. Why not?

A.W., respectfully, because its not just about whether or not you are personally safe or willing to take the risk. If you could be bringing an undetected infection with you to an unprepared or overburdened country, or bring it back home with you to infect other people, it is an ethical decision. Frankly, I don't care if someone makes a calculated decision to travel somewhere, understanding all the risks and issues, and gets sick and dies or has permanent damage to their health, or comes back perfectly fine. I do care if they come back and pass it on the rest of us. Thats how it got here in the first place.

@geovagriffith you said:

The CDC projects that the USA will reach herd immunity sometime this Summer through vaccines and the immunity that others receive from contracting COVID19.

Can you provide a reference for this? Nothing I've see from CDC has been that definite about reaching herd immunity. Last I saw, we weren't even expecting to get to the vaccinating the general US population until the end of summer. And I thought "permanent" immunity from prior infection was still an unknown. Then, as has been discussed, if the rest of the world (including Europe) is behind the US, it's not a given that they will open up when we are ready.

The vaccines are not 100% effective, and they've only been proven effective against getting moderate to severe illness, not from being infected altogether. So, yeah, a negative test requirement would still make sense.

With all due respect, Stan, but levels of infection have been pretty much the same across Europe for many months now. The virus is everywhere. Anyone may catch it locally from a neighbour, by going to local shop, doctor, or on a bus. You really do not have to wait for someone to come from another European country and give it to you. Vast majority of countries are long past that stage and that was the reason why borders were open within Europe in the summer.

Anyone may catch it locally from a neighbour, by going to local shop,
doctor, or on a bus.

Isn't that the whole point of limiting your movements to the bare necessities and decreasing contact with strangers? Travel is pretty much the opposite of that under typical circumstances (I'm not talking about going to the Atacama Desert or somewhere where there are hardly any people). Your rationale for travel makes sense only from an individual perspective (your own risk), not from a population perspective. A population perspective is needed if you want to get transmission to the point where the chances of anyone getting infected is small. People aren't programmed to act in the collective interest, that's why this is so hard. What's rational for an individual is not necessarily good for everyone at large. Croatia was open for young people partying in the summer...and what happened? Lots of seeded virus was transported to other countries like Spain, etc.

If you could be bringing an undetected infection with you to an
unprepared or overburdened country,

So, the fact that a country has examined their situation and determined that opening their borders is in their best interest is irrelevant?

or bring it back home with you to infect other people.

I do care if they come back and pass it on the rest of us.

So, the US reentry requirement for COVID testing, and you and the traveler washing hands, wearing masks and social distancing, doesn’t work? Then why are we doing it?

Anyone may catch it locally from a neighbour, by going to local shop, doctor, or on a bus. You really do not have to wait for someone to come from another European country and give it to you.

Quite a simplification. And here's the thing. The more people, whether at home or via travel, potentially expose themselves to the virus and/or don't follow recommendations, the longer it will be for this to go away and allow those people who have a greater chance of serious illness or death from this disease to leave their homes and get back to living their lives.

Personally, I wonder about people who can't stay home and entertain themselves for a while. What's lacking in your life? I love to travel, but really, not at the expense of the health of other people or the livelihoods of workers. And that's the bottom line. You can try to justify it all you want, but you can only do so in your own mind in a small world. I, also, think this is very much a white privilege issue as well, but that's another post.

"With all due respect, Stan, but levels of infection have been pretty much the same across Europe for many months now."

A little bit true but it's more a roller coaster. It dipped tremendously after last year's hard confinements. It dipped enough to open borders within Europe because the governments were weighing the psychological advantages of allowing intra-European vacations with the spread of infection that would clog up the ICUs. In some countries lockdowns began again toward the end of October (just after All Saints Day in France), others December--and it's been a matter of locking down, opening a little, curfews, and now PCRs to enter countries within the EU. It's a truly unsteady seesaw of a situation with the new variants barreling down upon us. Every government is begging people to stay put for now.

When we flew to the States on Tuesday from CDG, we were grilled by border control and had to prove our primary residence is in the US. Without the proof, we would not have been allowed to leave. They told us that many people were being denied exit.

@James E., all I'm suggesting is that those accommodations that gov'ts have made in order to allow travel, weren't solely based on public health protection. Politics. Otherwise we'd have 100% lockdown everywhere. I have no objection to your choice to travel, following all the rules. But it seems like much of the discussion has been based on "I'm vaccinated so I'm safe: the heck with everyone else" when none of the barriers to transporting illness are 100% effective. I just think the bigger picture should be part of everyones thought process.

"Isn't that the whole point of limiting your movements to the bare necessities and decreasing contact with strangers?"

Yes, anyone concerned catching covid and dying should definitely limit their movement, decrease contact with other people (not only strangers - many people caught it from their close family) and not travel, especially not by public transport. I hope you are at least grateful to people who have to travel, go to work every day and are in contact with others so that you can have your 'bare necessities' and stay home.

However,

Humans did not evolve avoiding other humans. They evolved in close contact with other people and all sorts of pathogens. All those #stayhome campaigns are failing in the long run unless people are planning to stay home until death, or until there are no dangerous pathogen left outside. To maintain a healthy immune system people need to be constantly exposed to bacteria, viruses, the whole lot, so their immune systems gets to know them. Pathogens in small amounts act as natural vaccinations, this is how they made vaccines in the past. Only thing you must avoid is being exposed to huge load of virus that can overwhelm your immune system. That is why I'm OK with personal protections like masks, keeping social distance, avoiding people who are coughing and not against travel and movement in general.

That's about all I'm going to say on the subject as I'm frankly bored with such discussions being reheated all over again for nearly a year now.

Vaccines are kicking in all over the World.

Unfortunately, not all countries even have vaccines yet - many developing or low-income countries can't afford them and are counting on the COVAX initiative to secure their supplies. And some like Tanzania, where your safari is, has a leader that doesn't believe in them, so I wouldn't expect vaccines coming online fast there.

Stan, check these out on herd immunity:

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fauci-predicts-herd-immunity-u-s-late-spring-or-early-n1251151

I have been retired now for 10 years and we have traveled extensively. Prior to that I live in the Middle East 5 years and Germany for 4 years and did a fair amount of travel.

We love travel, it is one of the high points of our lives. Staying home is OK, but sorry, I have read about 80 books this year and Netflix is a help, but want to travel.

At 73 years of age, my life expectancy is about 13 years, according to sources on the internet. My wife and I have both been vaccinated. Even before the vaccine, our risk of death was very low, less than one percent. I am not going to cower in fear in our home and not enjoy what life l have left.

Of course, I don't want to get the virus or pass it on to others, so I will still wear a mask when around others and avoid mass gatherings. However, once vaccinations have been widely administered, the only thing slowing us down is the administrative barriers like testing or some countries banning visitors. I believe this will change, perhaps later this year.

My Name is James E. and I am a recovering Travel Junkie

I have been retired now for 2 years and I have traveled extensively.

Prior to that I kept a second home in Eastern Europe and traveled a lot from that base.

I love travel, it is one of the high points of my life. Staying home is OK, but sorry, I have read about 16 books this year and Netflix is a help, but want to travel.

At 63 years of age, my life expectancy is about 23 years, according to sources on the internet. I am about to be vaccinated next week. Even before the vaccine, my risk of death was very low, less than one percent. I am not going to cower in fear in our home and not enjoy what life l have left.

Of course, I don't want to get the virus or pass it on to others, so I will still wear a mask, wash my hands and socioal distance when around others and avoid mass gatherings. However, once vaccinations have been widely administered, the only thing slowing me down is the administrative barriers like testing or some countries banning visitors. I believe this will change, perhaps later this year.

Geovagriffith, that NBC article you linked to is over seven weeks old. I don't know that Fauci would give the same time estimates today. We've had some hiccups in the vaccine rollout process that have slowed us down, we still have only two authorized vaccines, etc. He may (or may not) have been more optimistic in his assumptions about such matters back in mid-December.

Mathematically, I think getting the US into the herd-immunity range before children can be vaccinated would require about 100% of the 16+ age group to opt in, and we will be nowhere close to that. So timing of approval of vaccines for children could be really important. I haven't seen an estimate of when the necessary children's trials might be completed.

Stan, check these out on herd immunity:
https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fauci-predicts-herd-immunity-u-s-late-spring-or-early-n1251151

I took a look at these links. The first one is some data scientist, NOT the CDC, making a projection. There is no official CDC projection that I could find anywhere.

The second news article is regrettable in using a catchy title that doesn't exactly match the wording of the text. "Could..." and "hopes...." are the operative phrases; there is no mention of "will". Everything will depend on a lot of variables. I would track over time, but not rely on what was said almost two months ago.

To acraven and agnes,

Here are more recent articles on the subject that say the same thing:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-herd-immunity-vaccines-b1792528.html

https://khn.org/morning-breakout/if-vaccinations-pick-up-us-could-reach-herd-immunity-by-summer/

The CDC data from my first link clearly show herd immunity via TWO things, vaccines and immunity acquired by those who have had the virus. Just read the data.

But this was in the UK link.
“Scientists are still determining the threshold for herd immunity with Covid-19; Dr Anthony Fauci said this month that on-track vaccinations through the spring and summer could provide a “degree of protection” into the fall.”

Furthermore, terms like "spring", "summer" and "fall" are a bit imprecise. I think there's a tendency to read "by summer" as "by the beginning of June" or "by June 21", but perhaps the speaker was thinking "by sometime in the summer" or "by the end of the summer". Who knows? I certainly don't blame anyone for sticking with vague dates when asked for predictions, given the massive uncertainties involved, but I think it's really risky to act on the most positive possible interpretation of someone's ruminations about what might happen.

None of the language is strong in its convictions

Even data projections aren’t that reliable in a pandemic where new variants keep popping up. It’s very educated guesswork, but still guesswork

Exactly!

Just thought I'd add my two cents as I see a lot of folks saying they don't think a trip to East Africa is feasible this year. My husband and I have a safari booked to Kenya in August--rescheduled from August 2020. There are currently testing requirements in place, but actually we could have gone last summer if we wanted to as Kenya remained open. We didn't feel comfortable travelling and our tour company allowed us to push it back a year with no charges. But as of now I (or my contact at the tour company we're using) don't see any reason to believe we won't be able to travel to East Africa this summer. Of course your own comfort level, vaccinations, whether there are still testing requirements or other restrictions makes it a personal decision for sure. But I anticipate the area will remain open and welcoming tourism.

If its what I wanted to do, and I was vaccinated, and the country was open, and the activities available; I wouldn't think twice.