Should I get my euros now or when I get over there. The rates are still decent but are going up right now. I know I will get a better exchange rate over there but if the exchange rate raises by even a little bit it would be cheaper to get now. Also, my bank charges 3% plus $3 per withdrawal money overseas. I will be leaving Aug. 12 for a 16 day trip in Europe. I will have $4000 to exchange for euros, the better rate I get the more money I will have while I am there. How dangerous is it to carry a lot cash, do you think it would be worth the risk to save $100 to $200 and get euros before I go. Thanks for your input.
I know it's hard to sit on the sidelines and watch the exchange rate go up, but it's usually better to wait until you're there for the reasons you have already stated. First, the banks here will give you really crappy rates and that 3% fee will seem like a bargain by comparison. Second, you may feel uneasy carrying around large wads of cash.
Besides, the rate can go down as well as up. If you could predict currency rates with any accuracy, you would be wealthy enough that it wouldn't matter. Just a few weeks ago, the "experts" were saying that the euro would fall to $1.00.
I agree with Brad and i think most people here will, too. The exchange rate is not the whole story, because over here you will pay exorbitant fees and an even worse rate. It's one thing to get a few euros here and eat the fees for the convenience of not having to find the ATM immediately upon your arrival. It's another to multiply that HORRENDOUS rate over 4000 dollars. I would be surprised if the rate changes enough in the next month to make it worth getting the money here plus honestly the thought of having that much cash scares me personally. I even feel uncomfortable when i have 250 euros from the ATM over there until I can stash some in my money belt.
You might do even better to open a last minute account somewhere that will not ding you with the 3% fee. Ally, CapitalOne, local credit unions, etc., would all have less than that and avoid (all or most of) the $3 fee too. If you do it ASAP you might be able to get the ATM card before you go...
Right now it would cost me about 1.33 per euro right now through my bank. If I wait and the rate does not change it would cost about 1.31 per euro once you factor in the fees charged by my bank. If the rate increases just 2 cents then I would be losing money, but I would also have to carry around about 3100 euro until I got to my first hotel.
Hindsight is 20/20. The only way you will know if it's a wise move to buy Euros ahead is when you're actually there, looking back.
Right now, I'd say the two currencies are in a race to the bottom. Both are suffering heavily against gold (recent mini-panic in gold market notwithstanding). Daily reports on debt and economic activity seem to drive one lower versus the other on any given day.
There are several current issues (Europe's Stress Test, Spanish debt, etc.) that could either make the Euro drop still lower or rebound significantly. If I had to bet, I'd bet on still lower but it would be about as risky as betting on a roulette wheel.
As someone who's actually traded currencies on the foreign exchange market, I can tell you that Brad's remark about the roulette wheel is absolutely, totally, 100% true.
Don't "bet" on the movement of the euro. You'll save more by getting yourself a low-fee or no-fee ATM/debit card instead of the card you have.
And yes, it's a terrible idea to carry around that amount of cash. Too many things can happen.