Current forecast models peg the euro around $1.20 heading into the summer, but this seems too optimistic a forecast, particularly if Greece defaults, which seems likely (and frankly necessary). Assuming the US economy maintains it's current semi-stable position, what does your gut tell you? Do you think the forecast is about right, too optimistic or too pessimistic?
Could the Euro fall to near parity with the dollar by Summer?
Posted by
Land of La
9205 posts
Possible but not probable. Then again possible that Newt will be the Republican nominee but not probable. possible that Moneyball will win Best Picture but not probable, possible that Tiger will win another major but not probable, possible that Whitney Huston died of natural causes but not probable. Forecasting what will happen to the Euro by summer is mere speculation. Nothing more.
Posted by
Corvallis OR
7157 posts
Claudia, you forgot my favorite, the price of gasoline (or petrol if you prefer). Sam, I'm a skeptic, I'm planning my trip this summer using current exchange rates and hope I'll be pleasantly surprised. At least I won't be disappointed if nothing changes.
Posted by
Tresana, Highlands Ranch, CO, USA
23621 posts
It is called currency speculations. And fortunes have been lost guessing the wrong side. There was a posting last year from someone who was convinced that the Euro was going to be $1.60 when it was about 1.42 so he was buying. We never heard back from him. The average person cannot win at speculation. I really doubt if we will see parity.
Posted by
Oak Park, Illinois
4535 posts
If you're looking to invest your 401K in currency futures, this isn't the forum to discuss that. If you're looking to buy euros now for a summer trip, it might help to know that it is very difficult just to break even on the speculation. It costs anywhere between 5-10% above actual exchange rate to buy euros in the US - compared to 1-4% just using an ATM there. If you're just hoping that the value of the dollar goes up so a summer vacation is more affordable, you'll just have to wait with the rest of us to find out.
Posted by
Long Beach, CA, USA
360 posts
these type of discussions are really worthless might go up, might go down
not even the top economists can tell you what will happen with any certainty
Posted by
Myrtle Beach, USA
12313 posts
If the US passes a responsible budget, the dollar will rise. That's a big if; Congress hasn't passed a budget since 2009. Most of the change between the dollar/euro lately has been the ebb and flow of optimism on Europe's debt issues rather than optimism about the US's debt problem.
Posted by
La Crescenta, California, USA
361 posts
It's a coin toss, heads you win, tails you win---just go and enjoy, life is WAY too short.
Posted by
cincinnati
80 posts
i'd look for it to be about the same. i think most of the uncertainty is priced in already. And Brad, the congress has actually passed budgets each yearit is the Senate that hasn't passed a budget in nearly three years! dysfunction at its best.
Posted by
cincinnati
80 posts
i'd look for it to be about the same. i think most of the uncertainty is priced in already. And Brad, the congress has actually passed budgets each yearit is the Senate that hasn't passed a budget in nearly three years! dysfunction at its best.