EU urges tourists not to postpone their vacation

According to google, this message is working in calming fears.

While I understand people's concern. I will not be altering travel plans.

Fuel prices may continue to rise but I suspect even in the worst case --no resolution for weeks and weeks-- nobody will truly be unable to get home. There may be fewer options and fuller flights and costs may be higher but travel should go on.

Happy travels!

P.S. This table below shows the fear effect and also shows fear is abating.

Estimated Weekly Passenger Decline (Year-over-Year)

Week Range US to Europe Decline Intra-Europe Decline Market Context

March 2 – March 8 -8% -5% Initial shock; panic cancellations begin.

March 9 – March 15 -15% -12% Hormuz closure; oil hits $120+.

March 16 – March 22 -28% -22% Peak airfare surge; major routes cut.

March 23 – March 29 -35% -30% Peak Decline. Maximum uncertainty.

April 1 – April 5 -32% -28% Stabilization as ceasefire talks begin.

April 6 – April 12 -24% -20% Ceasefire starts (April 8).

April 13 – April 19 -18% -14% Relief rallies; business travel resumes.

April 20 – April 26 -12% -10% Commissioner Tzitzikostas reassures
market.

April 27 – Today -11% -8% "Wait-and-see" mode for summer.

🔍 Key Trends in the Data

The March Crash: The week of March 23 was the worst for the industry.
Many travelers feared the conflict would draw in more European
nations, leading to a total halt in discretionary summer bookings.

US Sensitivity: American travelers reacted more strongly to the war
news than Europeans. US-to-Europe bookings fell further (-35%) than
travel within Europe (-30%) because transcontinental flights were hit
harder by the 103% jet fuel surcharge.

The "Tzitzikostas Effect": The slight improvement seen in the last two
weeks is attributed to the European Commission's aggressive messaging
(like the video you shared) reminding travelers that fuel reserves are
stable and legal protections are in place.

If the April 8 ceasefire holds, analysts expect the decline to shrink
to single digits by June.

I do not fear that circumstances will present an obstacle to returning home to the US. It just may not be with the original planned return carriers and/or dates. I also am not fearful about my personal protection as mentioned in the video. But I do have concerns that I have planned a long time and spent a great deal of retirement savings for a July vacation in Europe that may be upended and significantly affected by missed connections due to short flights being cancelled and missing out on the planned itinerary. It is very common that itineraries are affected due to weather, striking workers, museum pieces being out on loan, etc... but we are already warned about short flight cancellations within Europe. The increased chance of having to go through the process of filing insurance claims makes one reconsider. I understand why some may choose to cancel Europe plans and vacation closer to home.

My trip this year includes doing Part 2 at then end of August going into the first couple of weeks into Sept. Part 2 is literally postponing these last allowable days in Schengen. A few of hotel reservations for this part 2 have already been made, non-refundable to get the lowest rate as is the flight.

Sorry Fred but nowadays is no time to make nonrefundable travel plans.

Nice name by the way.

All my travel tickets, air, train, rail pass, hotel reservations have been always nonrefundable. just as the flight tickets this summer.

Our flight from ATL to Munich recently we had so few on it we almost each had a row to ourselves. It made for great snoozing. Our flight back in June is already more full than our flight here.

Sorry Fred but nowadays is no time to make nonrefundable travel plans.

Then you haven’t followed Fred over the years. Fred’s hotels are under 100 euro a night (Fred you correct me any time here). Fred flies Basic Economy and Fred rides on trains.
Over the years traveling like this has saved Fred thousands if not tens of thousands of dollars.
The worst that can happen to Fred nowadays is losing his hotel rooms because a flight got canceled (a flight that will be fully refunded or rebooked because the airline canceled it). If this happened to Fred 10 out of the next 10 trips, he would still have savings vs spending the money on refundable rooms and flights.
Fred, am I close?
This is called self-insuring and it works for frequent travelers like Fred … and me.

I agree - I almost always book non refundable - I'd rather have the often substantial saving, particularly for airfares. I've never yet had a situation where I couldn't travel, apart from once where it was for medical reasons and all arrangements were covered by insurance.

Each to their own, though

I self insure as well. Looking forward to my upcoming trip and one in September.

I've always been a non-refundable travel type. This year we've been held up booking some trips because of weddings and a potential wedding in India. We may go the refundable route this year too.

If it gives folks peace of mind, buying a refundable ticket may be money well spent.

Who knows?

Happy travels!

FrankII I guess this will offset some of the gas shortage so planes will stay in the air a few more days?

Welp, I guess like with the predictions we experienced years ago about Covid closing everything down, we will find out if these predictions about not enough fuel to get us home will come true in June. Being on the backside of the bell curve, I can’t just put off this trip to another year so we will go with the flow. My husband having Swiss relatives kind of makes for a safe place to run to but I’m really not ready to listen to the remarks about our homeland. It’s ok for me to criticize but it always rubs me the wrong way when they do. Anyway, here’s hoping for another wonderful R S tour!

Margie, not in June. Based on the first article saying only 6 weeks of jet gas, left the day the gas runs out is in mid-May.

The airlines are not going to run out of fuel.

I don't care what any article says. European airlines get 15% of their jet fuel from the Middle East. Even if that is cut off completely, they still have 85% of their supplier still supplying.

Is there any chance they run out of gas in mid flight? Cause I have a flight first week of June and its over water.

Mr É, hope you're a good swimmer. j/k ;)

Mr E, don't worry they are going to start mid air refuelling (like Air Forces do).

So a tanker plane from Shannon or somewhere like Gander will meet you in mid Atlantic to refuel.

The water is Lake Balaton. I bet that's different!!

Wizz has a 15% off sale going and the price on my Moldova flight hasn't changed in a month. They seem to believe they will have gas.

Wizz Air just announced they are turning most of their planes into floatplanes just in case.

By golly, you are correct https://youtu.be/d8Qq2cHTgUU?si=O23tprQqL222dx6M

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/16/business/europe-airlines-jet-fuel-strait-hormuz.html

41% according to the sources quoted by the New York Times. But I agree. They won’t run out even if the supply disruptions persist. A supply shock causes prices to increase so that supply and demand once again reach an equilibrium. How high the price has to climb is a question of inelasticity — and experts are debating this now in case of a persistent disruption (and it still far more likely that strait reopens.) Who knows! I suspect some continuation of well telegraphed cancellations/consolidations of flights and higher prices. Or maybe the strait will be open tomorrow!

See below re 41%:

Europe is heavily reliant on imported jet fuel because many of its oil
refineries have shut down in recent decades. Britain, the largest
consumer of jet fuel in Europe, has just four refineries, down from 18
in the 1970s, according to a parliamentary report published in
December.

Europe is by far the biggest consumer of jet fuel shipped through the
Strait of Hormuz. Shipments through the strait account for about 41
percent of all European jet fuel imports and about 36 percent of all
African jet fuel imports, according to Macquarie Group, an Australian
financial services firm.

David, it might be a misunderstanding, but 41% of imports is much less than 41% of total (which the article might have confused as well)

Mr. E, it has been „for at least six weeks“ through all of April iirc. I interpret this as „we have already enough for 6 weeks as of now and maintain to do so as long as production continues“.

Europe is urgently turning to alternative suppliers of jet fuel as
imports from the Middle East remain knocked out — but the continent
must “fight for every cargo” in what analysts have dubbed a “global
stress test” for the airline industry.

The loss of Middle Eastern jet fuel because of the Iran war is quickly
becoming an acute logistics problem for Europe, according to analysts
at Societe Generale.

The continent’s average daily demand of about 1.6 million barrels of
jet fuel a day is typically met primarily through domestic production,
at 1.1 million barrels per day.

But the additional 500,000 barrels is met via imports — three-quarters
of which traditionally arrived from the Middle East, SocGen analysts
said in a note Monday.

That supply has largely dried up since the Strait of Hormuz shipping
channel effectively closed after the U.S.-Iran conflict started on
Feb. 28.

So to be clear, domestic production (production in Europe) of jet fuel is dependent on oil (some of which comes through the strait.) The supply is disrupted. The 15% figure I reacted to I suppose was right in the sense of circa 15% of global supply of oil is disrupted, 85% is not disrupted. Jet fuel however has its own supply chain quirks.

The US-- which had previous not been a supplier to Europe-- is now shipping jet fuel to Europe. Not a complete replacement. Frank's point about a 15% world wide hole is on target once supply lines get re-jiggered (if they need to be because the strait remains closed indefinitely-- which is unlikely.) However, timing matters too. Global supply lines don't get fixed quickly.

With all of that said, it is great that EU is telling its travelers to rest easy that they will be protected by EU law and actions. Folks will be able to travel. (But prices may be go up and flights might be fuller.)

Happy travels!

Thank you, David. If I have to swim I would rather it be in warm water versus the cold Atlantic.

Yes, but no. There is no meaningful refinery capacity in Europe. For this topic its not oil being stopped at the straight, its Jet Fuel because most of Europe's jet fuel comes from refineries on the wrong side of the straight. There is no 100% replacement for those refineries any place in the world. Sure the US can pick up some slack for jet fuel and every other product being affected by this but the refining capacity in the US doesn't have a lot of unused capacity so we could have more than enough oil but still be limited in what we can do.

As negative as that sounds I suspect with human and capatilist creativity a workable, but not perfect, solution will be found until the larger problem is solved.

Of course, im no expert on the subject either so what do I know? So I'll keep booking flights.

Europe is among the most structurally exposed regions. Europe produces
only around 50% of its kerosene needs domestically, with the remainder
met through imports. Gulf producers account for approximately 70% of
imported volumes, affecting markets such as the UK, Germany, France
and Italy, all of which run persistent deficits. Middle East kerosene
flows to Northwest Europe fell -90% m/m in March, while April flows
were effectively nil. Although US shipments surged +782% m/m, total
combined inflows from the US and Middle East were still down -82% m/m
in April, suggesting tightening physical availability into late spring
and summer. More worryingly, even if Hormuz reopens soon, a full
refinery ramp-up would likely take 3–6 months.
https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_global/news-insights/economic-insights/Staycation_summer_Jet-fuel_crunch_reshapes_peak_holiday_season.html

Just to clarify, Europe produces 1/2 or more of its jet fuel domestically. It imports jet fuel significantly-- and it's changing its supply lines already in reaction to events. There is a global market for oil, jet fuel, heck, just about everything except a good pizza (which is only available in certain countries!!!) However, deliver times vary. For instance, I ordered a pizza from Naples and it took several months to get to cleveland. Pizza Hut in cleveland took only 1/2 hour -- and it was still hot! (But not as good.)

Happy travels!

But to agree again with Frank and the EU and Rick Steves-- keep on traveling !!!

@ Mr E .... I would be more precise better than "close" Over the years , depending where in France or Austria, for 2 or 3 or 4 star hotels I have paid per night 70 to 155 Euro. The last few trips I go on the average nightly rate if my stay is the total of 4 to 10 nights or more. If the average rate turns out be , say 125 per night in a 3 or 4 star, I'll take it., as a walk-in or previously booked....all depends on subjective factors.

Regardless, I don't book refundable, never have.

Last summer one of the hotels in Paris, a 2 star, plus and as repeat guest, I stayed 7 or 8 nights , paid 85 Euro a night. Of course, I paid the total amount in cash for a comfortable spacious room with a spacious separate room for the bath and shower combo, no AC, obviously. This was in Gard du Nord . July is the month with the lowest rates.

Okay Fred, i was just standing up for you.

David, I am pleased that my amateur analysis isn't far from your last post. I suggest we meet half way and I bet that gets us close to reality. Or we are both wrong ? Its amazing that us RS folks can figure out complex problems that experts in the industry cant. But suffice to say we are in agreement that the commercial aviation industry isnt running out of jet fuel any time soon. So sign up for those RS tours!!!

A good example of how systems adapt and compensate is about 4 years ago when 10 to 15% of the worlds grain was blockaded. Creativity intervened and the impact hasn't been what the press said it would be. I expect thr same here.

FrankII i'm sitting here at Bobs Kitchen wolfing down fish and chips and reading the news and I came across a 2 day old story about the over stretched and overly socialized and underly unified EU air traffic control and airport systems. On the 30th the delays and cancelations were crazy high. Nothing to do with fuel. This is the sort thing to worry about when planning a trip. Not planes running out of gas and dropping out of the sky. Plan good lay over times and consider flights with a later connection to the same destination and, if you can, avoid FRA, MUC, AMS, CDG, LHR.

Avoid ? MUC, Gatwick and CDG are my favourite airports in Europe.

Thank you for your sharing of this video.

What if the Straits of Hormuz is continually closed for months as fuel is fully consumed and then no more fuel, then how? We need to be realistic.

My fingers crossed as other countries are kind enough to assist other countries about fuel issues. The realistic scenario is if the Straits of Hormuz is continually closed for months till a year, then no more fuel for most countries, how? 8 more months left to go till Dec 2026. That's what I am wondering to myself all along.

I pray that I will be able to go on a trip and will also be able to return home.

You don't actually think the entire worlds supply of jet fuel comes throught the Straits of Hormuz?

About 20% of the world's oil supply comes through the Strait of Hormuz. That's oil, not just jet fuel. There are plenty of other places that produced jet fuel.

The US makes enough for its own needs. But we like to sell it so we have to buy some as well. Do you know where most of the jet fuel we buy comes from?

South Korea

The world is not going to run out of jet fuel. Airlines will not ground all its planes. People will be able to travel.

Will some flights get canceled? Yes. But you will be put on an alternate flight. You're not going to be stranded somewhere for life.

But what are some people referenceing? A CNBC story over 2 weeks old. A lot changes in two weeks.

An article by a publicity mad airline chief. (The same person who wanted to charge passengers to use the toilet and allow some passengers to stand during the flight.)

FrankII I am not going to pretend to be an expert on the subject. Enough are doing that without me adding to it. One thing I am confident about is that pretend experts often make the matter worse. Several airlines are running sales today. I assume then that selling more tickets is a healthy thing for the airlines. At the same time a segment of "experts" online are saying things thst discourage travel. I assume given the actions of the airlines that this is counter productive.

Two things are certain, prices are good right now and the vast overwhelming majority of flights are taking off as planned. The rest is uneducated guess work.

Europe is among the most structurally exposed regions. Europe produces
only around 50% of its kerosene needs domestically, with the remainder
met through imports. Gulf producers account for approximately 70% of
imported volumes, affecting markets such as the UK, Germany, France
and Italy, all of which run persistent deficits. Middle East kerosene
flows to Northwest Europe fell -90% m/m in March, while April flows
were effectively nil. Although US shipments surged +782% m/m, total
combined inflows from the US and Middle East were still down -82% m/m
in April, suggesting tightening physical availability into late spring
and summer. More worryingly, even if Hormuz reopens soon, a full
refinery ramp-up would likely take 3–6 months.
https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_global/news-insights/economic-insights-tubidy/StaycationsummerJet-fuelcrunchreshapespeakholiday_season.html

Yeah, this paints a pretty clear picture of why Europe is feeling exposed on jet fuel/kerosene right now.

If Europe only produces ~50% of its own demand, it’s structurally dependent on imports, so when flows from key suppliers (especially the Gulf) drop sharply, the system gets tight fast. The -90% m/m drop from the Middle East to Northwest Europe in March is especially significant, because that region has traditionally been a core swing supplier.

Even though US exports jumped massively (+782% m/m), it clearly wasn’t enough to fully offset the gap. That mismatch (-82% total inflows in April) suggests this isn’t just a rerouting issue, it’s an actual supply constraint showing up in physical barrels, not just paper markets.

The more interesting part is the lag effect you mentioned. Even if something like the Strait of Hormuz normalizes quickly, refinery output doesn’t just bounce back overnight. A 3-6 month ramp-up window is realistic because refiners need time to restore crude flows, optimize runs, and rebalance logistics chains.

Net result: Europe could still face tight jet fuel availability right into peak summer travel season, which usually means higher crack spreads and more pressure on aviation costs, unless demand softens or alternative supply sources scale up faster than expected.

Net result: Europe could still face tight jet fuel availability right
into peak summer travel season, which usually means higher crack
spreads and more pressure on aviation costs, unless demand softens or
alternative supply sources scale up faster than expected.

Yes. It will be tight. Some flights might get canceled. All the loser routes will be canceled. Prices might go up some. Maybe an airline that would have gone broke by 2028 will go broke in 2026. People will fly from A to B. Just my wild uneducated guess. 50/50 chance of being correct.