Covid vaccine reality check w Dr. Offit.

Interesting.
The quickest vaccine developed was for mumps. Took 4 years.

It’s not just developing the vaccine. It’s then got to be tested. In the U.K. it’s usually a 5-10 year process for a new drug including getting licensing approval. I think corners will be cut to get something out quicker, but it’s not likely to be say 6 months.

Do you really think people are going to wait 4-10 years to travel again? Do you really think the the hotel, restaurant, airline, cruise, tour, and other industries would survive? Do you really think other businesses closed due to the virus may also survive? Do you realize what a strain this will be on our economy? Millions of people will be out of work seeking both unemployment and welfare. Taxes will have to be raised. Restlessness and crime will increase.

I would wager that we will have a vaccine before the year is out. Testing will be done but the paperwork, which can take forever, will be fastracked.

We will start to see a partial opening of our economy in May. This will pertain to businesses where social distancing and good hygienic practices can be followed. Small businesses with drive thru services such as some cleaners will reopen. Purchasing from a local store online or on the phone and then picking it up via curbside service will start up. Repair business can reopen practing safe distancing.

We won't see full work again for months but we can start the revival sooner than later.

The current flu vaccines have only been 30-50% effective (more or less) so why should the Covid 19 vaccine be different? It seems to me that most people are hoping that the Covid 19 vaccine will be 100% effective. Doubtful that will occur. We must find a way to begin to live somewhat normal lives again, sooner rather than later. Travel will probably not begin to recover until next year.

No I don’t think people will wait years to travel, I’m not stupid. Even fast tracking a vaccine isn’t likely to be ready to fully roll out this year. Each country will have their own standards of testing and speed of introduction. We all want a vaccine yesterday, but it needs to be done in a safe manner.

In the U.K., we already have the major DIY chains where the physical shops are closed offering a click and collect service - you order and pay online then turn up at the designated time, show your ID through your car window then they put the purchases in your car boot. This is for what is designated as essential items only, so includes heating components and lighting but it excludes gardening and decorating products. I have just looked - there is a queue of an hour according to their website just to get on to order anything, as they are being overwhelmed. My local butcher is offering the same service (but without the queue for the website)!

There has just been a report from Rome on the lunchtime BBC news bulletin, talking to the Deputy Health Minister in Italy. She says restaurants, cafes, museums and theatres will be the last things to reopen as and when the country starts to reopen and she envisages that this is months and months away. The same report also featured a restaurant owner who is about to close down her once successful business as she cannot afford the ongoing costs with no income. Places are going to be very different over the next couple of years.

I recently took very early retirement so that I could travel, but my plans will have to wait a while. My last holiday was to the gorgeous Sri Lanka, but being an island with more limited healthcare, they have clamped down hard on their lockdown early on in the process and although they will be desperate for the income from tourism, they won’t want to risk people visiting that could bring the virus into the country.

People from high risk countries such as Italy, Spain, America, France and the U.K. aren’t likely to be as welcome initially as they were a few months ago, as lower risk countries will be nervous about visitors.

We are still guessing right now about vaccines as well as the future of the coronavirus.

New revelations indicate the many more people have had the disease and didn't know. Many more people with some immunity. While the virus is more risky for the elderly (myself included at 72) and people with serious heart or lung diseases as well as diabetes, for most people the fatality rate is extremely low.

A lot of money has been spent already on vaccines with some announcing considerable success. I believe that travel will be more normal in 2021 and a vaccine will be available in early 2021.

The vaccine development will be much faster than usual. For one reason, there are multiple efforts going. For a second, there is no shortage of persons willing to participate. I expect a vaccine by September. What will take time is scaling up to 7,700,000,000 doses.

You will see NO TOLERANCE for the anti-vax stupidity.

I believe that we will be forced to open before the vaccine is here. The USA is going to have a very bad recession. If we do not open soon, like in May, we will have a depression that will take 10 years to recover from.

The vaccine development will be much faster than usual. For one reason, there are multiple efforts going.

They still have not got to a point where they are able to identify anti-bodies in those that have had the virus, so I expect it will be a few years away... more likely short term is a treatment.

Antibody detection efforts are going as fast as vaccine development. There are 50 vaccines in development. Whoever wins this race will make a lot of money.

What is needed is a treatment for the ARDS (Acute respiratory disease syndrome). This is what puts you in the critical care on the ventilator. It is an inflammation process, and we do have treatment for that sort of thing - steroids address inflammation.

Another approach which is being examined is using antibody serum made from the blood of COVID-19 survivors. There are millions of survivors now - this virus is not overly deadly. If that could be tested and was effective, that might be a very fast way to a protective tool. I have seen a couple reports which are positive on this approach.

Opening businesses ASAP. It’s a question of economic vs health costs. Yes, businesses can open, then their staff get ill, many are hospitalised at what cost? If I was working in a business where social distancing couldn’t be maintained, I wouldn’t be a happy bunny being asked to go back. The U.K. government is picking up the tab for 80% of furloughed workers salaries and take up has been three times higher than estimated.

In the U.K., the BBC reports that after 3 weeks of lockdown, 3,000 firefighters (12% of the total) are currently in self isolation and this is a profession that has relatively little contact with the public compared with many jobs, such as shop workers, so if this is typical of most businesses, then even opening up will mean at a limited rate.

We can all self-isolate as long as we want, but the food system will eventually break down. In my town, there is a large pork plant, supposedly responsible for 5-10% of all pork in the USA. They are a "hot-spot" and will close for 2 weeks. However, if all plants closed for 2 weeks, we would then run out of pork. You can have similar issues with chicken, beef, fish.

The food does not come from the Food Fairy.

@Frank II
I like your post. I've been saying taxes will have to be raised also, I'm not complaining, just the inevitable. I do think European travel will lag until late 2021. If the virus number come down I do think some businesses (US) will open as to your comment. For restaurants/bars I think its a wait and see. My wife and I will watch for about 2 weeks before we commit to some version of large groups.

I like this quote the best from Frank II from just yesterday (things change quickly in "As the Pandemic Turns"...one day it's caution and warning others not to speculate, the next day....):

"No one knows what will happen next week let alone a few months from now. What will survive and what will not? Nobody knows. Will there be major changes? Nobody knows.
The only thing we can be sure of in the future is death and taxes. Everything else is just speculation."

Thank you Agnes.

I realize people are bored and they are filling time by giving their opinions. But speculation leads to misinformation and false beliefs. I wish we would go back to what we are good at......discussing travel. Believe it or not, we will be able to travel again.

No one is remotely credible to accurately predict what travel will look like at this point, there are too many unknowns about what the world economy will look like in general - I wish folks would show a little humility (or at least hedge their bets a bit) instead of brash pronouncements of "x" will happen "in y", especially if they continually tell others not to speculate (that last phrase is key...i.e., do as I say, not as I do). I think you missed my point, Frank.

As far as vaccines go, I don't assume anything one way or another. I'm prepared to entertain the "no vaccine" scenario and only therapeutics - who knows. Many years were spent trying to get an AIDS vaccine and there is none. But there are perfectly functional antivirals which have extended affected peoples' lives dramatically. That may be good enough. I don't want to put my hopes into one basket.

Frank II,

While I realize things are different in different parts of the country, but we already have order ahead curbside pickup at lots of businesses here in the Denver area. Some of the restaurants have gotten very creative when they lack a drive through by doing things like setting up tents in their parking lots where you pick up your food. Delivery is also booming with grocery stores, mass merchants (Target), and others providing drop at your door delivery where you never even have to see another person. The companies doing the delivery are hiring upwards of half a million people this year nation wide. Auto service/repair is available with dealerships picking up your car, preforming the service, and then returning the vehicle to you sanitized. Of course this doesn't mean lots of people have not lost their jobs because they have. Smaller family run restaurants that simply don't have the resources to continue on, bars, nightclubs, and many others who depend on a crowded gathering, all have shut down putting lots out of work and may never reopen. I don't mean to diminish the situation.

There may be a vaccination before the end of the year -- end of next year. While this will be welcome, I hope that things will find a way to get back closer to normal before then. We still don't have vaccines for many other viruses that got close to the pandemic level and we carry on. There is a company in Colorado who have been working on a vaccine for corona viruses for over 3 years and they feel they can adjust their product to be for COVID 19. They have already moved to mass production according to their press release even though FDA has not approved the product. But even with this, they are not promising availability until sometime next year.

EDIT: Removed specific names of viruses with no vaccines.

• We still don't have vaccines for Bird flu, Swine flu, and many others that got close to the pandemic level and we carry on. There is a company in Colorado who have been working *

There is a vaccine for Swine flu which is known by H1N1.
It’s incorporated into the yearly flu vaccine.

People from high risk countries such as Italy, Spain, America, France
and the U.K. aren’t likely to be as welcome initially as they were a
few months ago, as lower risk countries will be nervous about
visitors.

High Risk is sort of subjective. But if the US fits the catagory you need to revise your statement to:
Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, Ireland and the US. Even then its a stretch from 374 to 70. AND YES, this will be different tomorrow.

Here is the current list of deaths per million. I left out all the tiny countries and city states or the US would be 4 places further down the list. And if we had more reliable numbers for Iran and a few other places, maybe the US would be down a few more slots.

Spain 374
Italy 338
Belgium 337
France 229
UK 167
Netherlands 165
Switzerland 131
Sweden 91
Ireland 74
USA 70
Portugal 52
Denmark 49
Austria 41
Germany 36
Norway 25

Eliminate New York and the US numbers are closer to Germany. Maybe we should have gone forward in implementing the plan to close the state borders???

Anyway, which countries are high risk??

Anyway, which countries are high risk??

All countries are high-risk. We're talking about the deaths of very large numbers of people.

Those with a blatantly political agenda (especially those who have a direct financial incentive to encourage people to travel as quickly as possible) will always spin, cherrypick, spread disinformation. We get that every day from the US administration. Nothing new.

Comparisons such as that immediately above are nonsensical and only serve to distract and spread disinformation. How valid is it to compare China (where they have been fighting this virus since the beginning of the year, and using quite extreme measures to do so) with other countries that have yet to come to grips with the need for basic social distancing and widespread lockdowns? Not everyplace is on the same timeline. It's disingenuous to pretend they are.

Cheerleading. Rah-rah.

On the vaccine front, CNN has interviewed several vaccine experts since this whole thing started. Aside from Fauci's hopeful "12 to 18 months", all the others (that I heard) took the position that 18 months would be a very aggressive schedule; one used the word "aspirational". My speculation is that Fauci was trying to be as optimistic as possible to keep Trump off his back. He said it, so I assume there is a theoretical possibility a vaccine may be available by the middle of 2021, but I'm not expecting it to happen, based on the comments of the experts.

The travel I want to do is to see my kids and granddaughter in person and be able to hug them all. After that, we’ll see.

All countries are high-risk

Now, that I do agree with.

Blockquote James - on 7 April you were boasting "Spain has just shy of 10 times the death rate that the US is experiencing". Less than a week later and it's no longer looking so good. Perhaps you should stop these ridiculous attempts to downplay the disease in the USA?

But Nick, look at us, we've only got 70, Spain has 374!
Big difference there.

I do agree all are high risk which is why selectively listing a country as high risk is a fallacy. I wouldn't be surprised if when it's all said and done all the large industrialized countries are in the same range. Maybe 1% death rate among those infected. And we do need for this to end, so everyone hunker down and follow the rules best you can.

New revelations indicate the many more people have had the disease and didn't know. Many more people with some immunity.

Another issue is that we don’t know what kind of immunity is conveyed with the virus.

I have seen a couple of reports on preliminary studies showing an at least significant number of persons who had Covid-19 who are showing too few antibodies to provide any protection to their immune systems.

Obviously these are just a couple of studies (or maybe the same one, reported twice!) and there is a lot more research to be done, but I think we are sadly far from being able to assume that those who have had Covid are now immune.

And believe me, I would love for it to be true that one is immune after having it since my husband and I have both had it!!

The list of what we don't know is ridiculously long which is why any predictions are just crystal ball reading; but the list will get shorter with time. So I remain optimistic; but follow the rules in the event my optimism is misplaced.

What Do Countries With The Best Coronavirus Reponses Have In Common?

The secret weapon in the fight against coronavirus?

While i see some issues with that article. I do have to admit that the best people in my company are almost all women. (never thought I would say that). The absolute best are Women/foreign nationals (never thought that it would come to that).

An interesting article in Neuroscience News tb vaccine online journal that there are signs that existing vaccines for TB have some impact on reducing morbidity for COVID-19. Some countries mandate the BCG vaccine, and show lower rates for coronavirus. As I understand it, the vaccine may reduce susceptibility to other respiratory infections. The implication is that there may be other, existing and approved vaccines that offer some help. A shortcut, maybe.

BCG is currently used as a treatment for Bladder Cancer with a fairly high success rate. Only side effect is you can sometimes catch a mild form of TB due to the large amount used. If it works or even if it shows a significant improvement in patients taking it regardless of its initial designated use, why not use it? Just don't take away from those needing it for their cancer treatments.

This might be covered under Trump's "Right to Try" act. I know someone who got hydroxychloroquine for COVID, and it's not approved yet for COVID.

Don't risk your life based on someone's "hunch".

The CIA has privately advised its workforce that taking an anti-malarial drug touted by President Trump and some of his supporters as a promising treatment for the novel coronavirus has potentially dangerous side effects, including sudden death.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-cia/2020/04/13/54129d64-7dba-11ea-8013-1b6da0e4a2b7_story.html

Sure a lot of CIA took it and may still take it, depending on where they are stationed. I did in the 70''s and early 80's.

And that's one of those articles where the headline has more bite than the story.

@James E
"Right to try" act. Best comment of the morning.

"You will see NO TOLERANCE for the anti-vax stupidity" (Paul of the Frozen North)

Unfortunately, this is alive and well. My SIL, from your hometown actually, has been vocal on her FB page about the insanity (!) of insisting on a vaccine for everything (!). Yes I did unfriend her finally, because I can't take it anymore. But I have been wondering how this will play out in the face of something of this virulence and mortality. Apparently my SIL is unphased. My ER doc husband was engaging in some draconian sci-fi thinking when he wondered "so should people who dont get vaccinated for this get a stamp on their arm, so we know they are last in line for a ventilator if they should need one?"

On the tolerance for the anti-vax morons:

I am out of patience for the anti-vax idiots. I will not tolerate this idiocy. It's time to require proof of vaccination for airline travel, cruise travel, and train travel. Do you think cruise ships will tolerate those who are not immune? They are in huge trouble, and they are going to be cleanliness-centric. On airline travel, I have picked up crud from the idiots seated in my row on many occasions.

I have started calling my congressman demanding that the TSA do something. Of course, they cannot test. But we can get the TSA to say: "Do you feel ill today? Have you been in contact with others who are ill? Are you being tested for a communicable illness?" We can also have automated temperature censors - these are being used in a number of companies. Coupling routine questioning with consequences ($10,000 fine if you travel while you are suspected of having a communicable disease) would stop people. Eliminating the completely unnecessary change fees for airline tickets is also necessary.

Another issue is going to be quarantining at the destination. Quarantining should be mandatory if you are not vaccinated.

The social consequences of being stupid should be raised. We now see what the consequences of non-vaccination - death and misery. When the vaccine comes, we should not tolerate the "conscience objection". Because ANTI-VAXER stupidity is going to kill someone's grandma.

The insurance companies (if they still exist in the future) need to weigh in on the vaccination issue. That is, if someone chooses not to vaccinate, they should notify their insurance provider and be willing to pay more or accept less coverage. The most I can see federal or state mandates be allowed to do, is to ease restrictions on care providers in how they choose to treat people (and charge for care) who have not been vaccinated. Again, a massive re-thinking of health care in general.

Paul, all good points. While I am not thrilled with the idea of the Feds being involved, the idea of private business setting restrictions sits a lot easier with me when they can demonstrate specific cause or need; like cruise or flights.

@James E: These carriers are going to need to demonstrate that they are not the problem, but are part of the solution. We all know that the virus came over the jetbridge to afflict us all. Had this been Europe in 1350, we in the USA would be watching. But not infected.

In the future, we want to know that the airlines are not the source of the problem.

potentially dangerous side effects, including sudden death.

That is definitely a dangerous side effect.

Paul, still in agreement with you

Robert, you win, water is safer. Maybe: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/strange-but-true-drinking-too-much-water-can-kill/

There are a few steps before we get to the vaccine. I did learn today (per Emma Walmsley, GSK CEO interview) that Glaxo Smith Kline and Sanofi are discussing a collaboration in developing a Global Vaccine. End of next year? In the meantime Diagnostic test: Containment. Anti-viral med. when diagnosed, Antibody Testing to determine immunity (it may be more than one testing), Plasma Treatment: Recovery & Possible Prevention, Lastly Vaccine: Prevention.

As Agnes alluded to: "Nobody knows." "The only thing we can be sure of in the future is death and taxes." I will add "politics." ;)

Thank you Janis.

Reality check point for those still in denial. Current record for a virus vaccine is for mumps. 4 years (developed between 1963-1967).
Medical technology has come a long way and we have a large number of labs working on it. But if developed in 2 yrs that will be at a record pace. They started working on the HIV (AIDS) Vaccine in 1984. They hope to have one by 2030.

Sadly the world has seriously changed.

onefastbob,
Yes, after decades of administering vaccines I recall when we started administering the Mumps Vaccine & then MMR. Years later we realized that there was effectiveness issues with MMR (Measles outbreak) and we had to revaccinate. This has happened with other vaccines as well; Pneumonia Vaccine, Shingles Vaccine (improved vaccine). Yes, no HIV Vaccine, I believe there are now 40 different anti-viral medications to treat it as a chronic disease. As far as Flu Vaccine, the CDC reports that during seasons when the flu vaccine viruses are similar to circulating flu viruses, flu vaccine has been shown to reduce the risk of having to go to the doctor with flu by 40% to 60%. That said, most people who receive Flu Vaccine, chances are you will have a milder case and less of a chance of secondary complications. Dr. Fauci reported recently that one year he had Influenza despite getting the Vaccine.

This evening Epidemiologist, Marc Lipstitch was interviewed. He believes that their will be "some form of social distancing into 2022 unless a vaccine or simlilar treatment is available." He also remarked "I hope I'm wrong."

@onefastbob: There is no similarity, none, nada, zilch, none, between a retrovirus like HIV and COVID. There was a SARS vaccine; like COVID-19, SARS is a corona virus. I am confident that a vaccine can be produced, but I am not a virologist. I do know that at least 2 vaccines are in clinical trial stage. Yes, it will take time. I am also quite sure that the process will be much quicker than previous. First, we are far more knowledgable about vaccines. Second, we have the SARS model in 2003. Third, there is intense world-wide competition. I don't know what the timetable is. It is not 4 years, of that I am confident.

Paul, Marc Lipstitch isnt often wrong!

Paul- did not say in any way shape nor form that HOV and CV19 are related. Just an example of a hated, deadly virus that doctors have been chasing for years, decades, and no vaccine (4 times they thought they had it, only to learn in trials they hadn’t). The point being there is no guaranteed end date for a CV19 vaccine. Hopefully much sooner then later. Much sooner. But those planning (and spending money) on a trip for Sept/Oct 2020 based upon the theory that we will have a vaccine at that time are sadly mistaken about the situtation and flying in the face of history. The world is throwing everything it can at this one. But it is new and acting differently. Lastly, I didn’t predict it would take 4 years. I just noted that 4 years for the mumps vaccine is the current world record time. I do not wish that they meet that record, I hope they smash it. They need to.

The most encouraging thing I've heard about a vaccine from an informed source comes from a brief interview CNN did yesterday with a top scientist at NIH. I believe they said she's leading NIH's vaccine-development effort. Dr. Corbett hopes their vaccine will be offered for emergency use by medical personnel this fall and will be able to deploy to the general population worldwide in spring 2021. There are some obvious caveats here:

• I presume those ambitious dates are based on the assumption that the vaccine currently in development proves both safe and at least somewhat effective in preliminary testing; many hoped-for vaccines fail one of those hurdles. There are other vaccines in development; they may have different timetables.

• Fall ends on December 21; spring ends on June 20.

I hope this link works: https://edition.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/04/15/coronavirus-vaccine-timeline-acfc-vpx.cnn

acraven-I saw that too, and below is a Twitter link to a longer version (or perhaps the whole) 7 minute interview, along with link to short article. It's certainly encouraging.

https://t.co/hlE34Wz64I

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/scientist-kizzmekia-corbett-leads-covid-19-vaccine-trials-with-dedication-humor/2271701/

I also saw the CNN interview. Here is to hoping these scientists are smarter than the virus.

Another news item that illustrates what a bi*ch this virus is: if your so sick that you have to be on a ventilator at that point you have a 14% chance of living. Worldwide, 86% of those placed in a vent eventually die. It clearly is a last ditch effort at life.

onefastbob-yeah, ventilator bad. I was all ears (not like Ross Perot, though ;-)) ) when Boris Johnson was in hospital and waiting/fearing the news he had been placed on a ventilator, that news of course never came. It was said, though, that he was receiving 'oxygen therapy', I think that is what they called it. I'm not sure what that is, specifically, but I had not heard of that in between step before.

Hopefully one doesn't have to be a PM or other head of state to get that opportunity.

If it's safe to assume that many of those that died, died on ventilators; then the fact that we have adequate ventilators possibly saved thousands of lives. That's a good thing.

Yeah, it's a good thing ventilators haven't been an issue.

A Ventilator Stockpile, With One Hitch: Thousands Do Not Work

"To manage the scarcity of ventilators in the stockpile, FEMA has begun sending a questionnaire to states seeking ventilators, asking about available resources and whether hospitals have tried converting anesthesia machines."

"The bigger struggle, however, has focused on ventilators because states have asked for tens of thousands more than the approximately 9,400 that the U.S. government currently has in its stockpile. The Defense Department is also making 1,065 ventilators available, although those require special training and are not used as frequently in hospitals."

"California recently discovered that 170 of its ventilators arrived broken, disputing the claim from the Department of Health and Human Services that all of the ventilators shipped by the Federal Emergency Management Agency were ready to use."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/politics/coronavirus-ventilators.html

onefastbob, yes the current percentage is 80% who don't survive. Not a good outcome. I've seen it.
Dave, re: Ross Perot :) - If I "heard" you correctly Boris Johnson was in ICU for several days for "Oxygen Therapy" AKA Supplemental Oxygen to improve his Oxygen level. This is a typical course to prevent further complications.

We were fortunate in WA. State and Oregon that by the time our curve was on the decline the Governors sent Ventilators where there was an urgent need.

BlockquoteThere may be a vaccination before the end of the year -- end of next year

I think you underestimate the scientific community

Because I work in healthcare I get lots of newsletters and lots of them have had information on this. The vaccine research is moving incredibly quickly. And comparing this to the mumps vaccine ? Hopefully we have learned a lot in over 50 years (we have which is why it's going so fast!)

J&J announced in this interview that they plan to start producing this year.... they are gearing up two places to produce.

Clinical trails have already started.

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/jj-coronavirus-vaccine-we-plan-to-begin-production-at-risk-imminently-210204457.html

I have the greatest respect and hope in the scientific community. I am also a realist.

A lot of people who are not familiar with how things work when it comes to vaccines have a twisted view from movies. You know the kind where the alien virus is destroying earth and they have exactly 7 days to create a vaccine and get the entire world treated. So in 6 days and 23 hours and 58 minutes they finally get something that works and use crop dusters to spray the entire planet saving mankind! Well, reality don't work that way. Trials must be done to see if the vaccine cures or kills. Those cannot be skipped before roll out to the general public.

Yes, I am aware of J&J and their work on a vaccine that they will be providing at or below cost to the world. There are other companies just as close to trails for their drugs. But what guarantee do we have that any of these will do anything at all? They could make people more susceptible to the virus (it has happened with previous attempt on other vaccines), they could outright kill people, they could only provide for reduced illness when you catch it, or they could do nothing at all. I hope that these vaccines are effective, being based on other corona virus vaccines should help, but there is still time to manufacture and distribute which is what it is.

Carol- please go back and reread my posts. At NO TIME have I compared CV19 to mumps. Period.
I stated that the world record time to produce a virus vaccine that works is 4 years. It just happened to be for the mumps. Yes, that was over 50 years ago. And 50 years later science still hasn’t beaten that record and boy have they tried.

AND no one on this board hopes more then me that they do so.

Oh, we are still 35plus years on waiting for a HIV vaccine. AND 5 times they have broken open the champagne and announced “we have it, we have it” only they didn’t and still don’t. At this point we are still way behind the curve. Everyone is screaming “antibodies” but we do not know how long those antibodies last in the body in terms of protection. The reports of those “catching “ the virus a second time are thought now not be new infections but a flare up of the original infection. This means that even post recovery that virus may still be alive within the human body for a lot longer then originally thought. I have had (I’m sure we all have) had friends declared cancer free. Only to be dead within a year when it came flying back. Again, NOT comparing CV19 to cancer- just using the analogy that we still do not fully understand this virus.

Hopefully they shatter that old 4 year record and something rolls out next spring. Hopefully.

Dave, apparently a lot has gone right since that 2 week old NYT article. Apparently the needs are being met .... for now.

Oh, for sure-we're almost out of the woods with this thing. Sending your pom-poms today, please do be certain to disinfect the exterior of the package before bringing it into your home.

Edited to add: If package is cardboard, it needs to stay outside at least 24 hours per CDC! Mucho importante!

Carol- please go back and reread my posts. At NO TIME have I compared CV19 to mumps. Period.
I stated that the world record time to produce a virus vaccine that works is 4 years. It just happened to be for the mumps. Yes, that was over 50 years ago. And 50 years later science still hasn’t beaten that record and boy have they tried.

I beg your pardon. Feel free to attack!

Have a good day!

I'm not qualified to comment other than to say, it gives me hope.

1. The flu strain responsible for the outbreak — influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 — was first detected in America in April 2009.

2. On Oct. 5, 2009, the U.S. began administering a newly approved H1N1 vaccine to select Americans, with vaccination coverage expanding nationwide by that December.

Perhaps some good news regarding an antiviral medicine for Covid-19:

A Chicago hospital treating severe Covid-19 patients with Gilead Sciences’ antiviral medicine remdesivir in a closely watched clinical trial is seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms, with nearly all patients discharged in less than a week, STAT has learned.
Remdesivir was one of the first medicines identified as having the potential to impact SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19, in lab tests. The entire world has been waiting for results from Gilead’s clinical trials, and positive results would likely lead to fast approvals by the Food and Drug Administration and other regulatory agencies. If safe and effective, it could become the first approved treatment against the disease.
The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead’s two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people, 113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of remdesivir.
“The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We’ve only had two patients perish,” said Kathleen Mullane, the University of Chicago infectious disease specialist overseeing the remdesivir studies for the hospital.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

Let's take a look at the (H1N1)pdm09. I remember it well. I recall we had limited vaccine and it was given to the most vulnerable. The vaccine was not available in significant quantities until late November, well after the peak of the illness in the second wave of the disease. This Pandemic lasted from April 2009 and ended August 2010. Comparing it to Covid-19: Covid-19 is not Influenza. It is, instead a highly contagious viral pneumonia. As we know Covid-19 is a novel virus which means no one has been exposed and therefore no one has built up an immunity. The (H1N1)pdm09 reported about 80% of the deaths were in people younger than 65. The CDC indicated the 2009 H1N1 mostly affected young and middle-aged adults and the global impact was less severe than earlier pandemics. It was believed that very few young people had existing immunity to the H1N1 Flu. What we can hope for is that those who have had the COVID-19 virus will have enough antibodies. Time and testing remains to be seen. We are still in the infant stage.

I'll take a 30 percent COVID-19 vaccine now. As with the seasonal flu vaccine it will mitigate the severity of the illness, Win-win.

30 percent is the different between a bad flu and a ventilator, or worse.

No vaccine, no travel, etc. This anti-science, anti-vaccine stuff has to stop.

Out trip to China is permanently cancelled. Thanks a lot, Chinese government. (Nothing against the citizens.)

I think you missed my point, or maybe it was a question. Did we have a virus appear in April and have a vaccine in October? Eleven years ago??

The time line on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and vaccine development is here. There was a second wave.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html

So, based on that article, we went from the H1N1 appearing in April to a vaccine in October of the same year. Why would this one, with 11 years of advancement in science and techology, take longer? Just asking.

Here is a "Perspective" article from the New England Journal of Medicine that explains the difference between H1N1 and SARS-CoV-2 vaccine preparation. (Note: I believe that the "Perspectives" articles are not subject to the same process of peer-review as full articles in NEJM).

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005630

tl;dr is that H1N1 is a strain of influenza, so the vaccine was built using existing influenza vaccine technologies and regulatory structures that produce predictable and safe vaccines, whereas SARS-CoV-2 vaccines do not have this benefit. And the past attempts to create vaccines for other coronavirus types (SARS and MERS) have been difficult.

Informative. Thank you.

Thanks Azra. I’ve been searching for the article I read a few weeks ago to post that pretty much said the same thing as this article.

OK, now that we know what Dr. Offit says, what about a top-level expert - Dr. Phil. Apparently many people consider him to be right up there with Fauci.

Dr. Phil.

Sorry, I spit out my coffee on that statement.

Dr. Phil and Dr. Oz should be ashamed of themselves!

Oh, yes, I forgot about Dr. Oz. Although unlike Dr. Phil, he's actually a medical doctor. And what about Dr. J?

Dr. Ruth might feel left out.

I had been wondering what happened to the CDC test, I guess we now know.

The troubled segment of the test was not critical to detecting the novel coronavirus, experts said. But after the difficulty emerged, CDC officials took more than a month to remove the unnecessary step from the kits, exacerbating nationwide delays in testing, according to an examination of federal documents and interviews with more than 30 present and former federal scientists and others familiar with the events.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/contamination-at-cdc-lab-delayed-rollout-of-coronavirus-tests/2020/04/18/fd7d3824-7139-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most

Yes, Dr. Drew too! Shameful! All of them 🤬