Coronavirus Setting Criteria in Advance

You bring up some good points and have put some thought into your proposed plan; I think it makes sense.

I am also on tenterhooks about my May 2 trip to Romania & ending in Budapest, connecting through Munich and Frankfurt. I fly out of SFO on United and read yesterday that United will be re-arranging or cancelling some flights from SFO due to the sharp reduction in number of people flying, so I'll be keeping an eye on this situation--as a solo traveler it'd be no big deal to postpone my trip but I don't want to give in easily and I'm not afraid to venture overseas--if I end up quarantined it'll be an adventure.

I'm all booked to go to Scotland mid April, I too want to go so badly that I also might be rationalizing reasons to go ... having said that my rule of thumb is if my government says I can go and if the plane is flying there I'm going... (I am getting a little obsessed though lol, at the end of the day it's a bit of 'wait and see') .. hope this is helpful, you definitely have company in the 'yikes what to do' category..

Cheers! :))

We're supposed to go from Seattle April 1 to Amsterdam, Venice, Florence and Paris. There are cases in all these places. At this point we are still planning to go, as long as we are healthy obviously and practice good hand washing, etc. So many people are canceling now, there's probably LESS chance of getting it at the airport or plane than at home. We shall see.

I am scheduled to leave for Italy on May 3, followed by Croatia.

I have two criteria, although if one is true, the other is likely to also be true.

1. If MY (Canadian) government issues a Level 3, "Avoid non-essential travel" notice. Currently there is one for Northern Italy. If that is still in place, I will alter some plans.
2. If many of the sites I want to see are closed.

However, if these criteria have been in place, but the situation is improving, and I expect them to be lifted shortly, I may still go.

A rationale which many will not agree with: so airline employees will have jobs.

Cala,

If I were looking for a reason NOT to travel, than the economic fortunes of airline employees and people working in other travel related industries might be a consideration. However, as I'm not afraid of death by coronavirus, and am worried about spreading it to people who might die, it's not a consideration. Killing others inadverantly as a price for my vacation versus endangering the jobs of others by not going? No contest. I'll stay home.

I tell my two cents. Italian government is now under attack for having been honest about coronavirus; most governments are underreporting. When I see some statistics, they look to me being somewhat doctored. It looks impossible that today Germany has 514 cases but no deaths; it just came out that in Spain early cases were concealed.

There are two lessons that can be learned from Italy, if governments want to hear. First, the virus is spreading exponentially so in a week everything can change; as the number of cases rises, hiding them will be more difficult. Second, for most people the illness is light or even goes unnoticed. Most severe cases can be saved as well but require adequate treatment with intensive care equipment. As the number of cases grows exponentially, it comes a moment that the health system is really under strain - that moment will be in a couple days in Italy, in other places the onset of the virus looks delayed but if the growth is exponential it makes only a few weeks difference. Italy has imposed movement restrictions not in order to stop the disease, but in order to make its growth slower and buy time for the health system to cope.

I would prefer not to travel abroad at this time; and, mind you, only one week ago I had the opposite opinion - but with exponential diffusion a week is a long time to go. But, mind you, do not feel you are safe at home; more or less, everybody is on the virus path. For the time being, it is better to minimize your social life. It won't last forever, and Europe will be still there in six months.

It sounds like you are weighing all your options to make an informed decision. Due to the rapidly evolving circumstances it's still unpredictable. As a healthcare provider for decades, I have never seen anything like this. I live in the "epicenter" outside of Seattle. We've had 10 deaths. My school district has closed for up to 14 days. Our Senior Center has closed indefinitely. Amazon is asking their workers to work from home. The list is mounting. That said our Health Department has been proactive in seeking alternate isolation care as needed. I continue to receive accurate updates from the King county Health Dept. & CDC. I work in Wellness & Preventative Medicine so I need to be up to date.

We will be waiting and watching to decide on two upcoming trips. We have to consider risk assessments. There are no absolutes. It comes down to personal decisions. At this point stay vigilant with all the recommendations to help prevent infection.

I hope you are able to visit lovely Budapest & Czech Republic. We were there last fall.
All the best.

I had two trips planned in the coming months. First trip was 16-25 MAR to Rome (and daytrip to Pompeii and Naples) via Munich and Frankfurt. This trip was with my husband and two kids, 14yo and 12yo. I just started the process of cancelling this morning after agonizing over CDC, State Dept., the Lufthansa website, and Canadian travel advisories. It was just not worth the risk of quarantine, or worse-- unknowingly bringing the virus onto a plane or back home. When Germany's cases went up the past couple of days I worried we might be quarantined anywhere along the way.

Second trip is with my 79 yo mom--river cruise from Bucharest to Budapest with and extension in Prague. This trip is not until 11-25 May. We are hanging tight for this one, and adding a caution--this trip involves many countries' varying public health systems. Not only do I not want to be stuck on the ship, I worry that some countries may underreport cases, or not test widely enough. If these countries' rates remain drastically lower than the rest of Europe, I would be very skeptical of their data. Certainly a CDC level 3 warning for any of our ports is a deal breaker for us--I know alternate itineraries are possible, but I wouldn't want the trip to lose so many of its planned stops that it no longer resembles our original trip.

The difficult part of having specific triggers for cancelling is that this situation is changing so quickly you could be on your transatlantic flight when quarantines are put in place. Good luck in whatever you decide to do!

Lacera,

I don't think a large number of cases, but few deaths is an indication of fraud or hiding cases. It sounds more like zealous finding of cases. Good for Germany. It's places like Washington, USA, with many deaths and few cases that I'm concerned about, though in Washington, I think it's lack of resources to test rather than a cover-up. Regardless, due to lack of early testing, I'm sure we will see more "sudden" case growth.

Anne,

We can't help changes that happen in air, but we can decide in advance what we will do about them. Go straight home, for example.

Yes Anne. I did the same today, spent most of the afternoon unwinding a meticulously scheduled 19 day trip from Rome to Milan. Really not in a good mood at this moment. In the end I decided it was not worth the risk to me (age 69) or my family. It was really hard watching online cameras of the Spanish Steps with maybe 20 people there. Couple that with the EXCELLENT air fare purchased last July (more than double today) - bummer.

Hasn't been a good travel year. My daughter spent 30+ hours in Goose Bay on a United 777 on an aborted trip to Hong Kong. I spent almost 3 days locked in our hotel at Alta, Utah due to avalanche danger while trying to ski. Guess these will all be good travel stories in a couple of years, but at the moment I am more than a little "travel fatigued" and have not been anywhere as yet!!!!

I am more than a little desperate to go on our planned trip in April and May. It's a one-way trip to the house we have purchased in Abruzzo, central Italy, and that we really want to go occupy. Not to mention we will be homeless as of April 20 when we close on our house sale here.

However, I am taking the following precautions and will be prepared to shift plans along the way as needed. Here's what we're doing now and plan to do en route:

• Do our best to stay healthy now: reduce social contact, wash hands frequently, rest, eat well. We are not working, just clearing out the house, so we're seeing fewer people than usual. Risks: saying farewell to our friends does involve social contact and hugs...
• Plan to reduce health risks later: we have had flu shots, and are getting pneumonia shots to reduce risk of opportunistic infection if we do get sick. We don't have other underlying conditions. Risks: this doesn't do anything to mitigate risk of contracting and sharing infection, but hopefully helps us have milder cases if we do
• Travel in quasi-isolation: we are driving from Calgary to New York in my private car, so we can take our French bulldog. Safer than air travel, I think. We are staying in whole-house AirBnBs, to have space for the dog, but may be safer than hotels due to fewer visitors and no one else onsite when we are. We'll disinfect a bit on top of the owners' cleaning. Risks: maybe private owners aren't as up on disinfection standards as hotels
• Wash hands nonstop on cruise: due to the dog, we're traveling on a transatlantic voyage New York to England. This is the riskiest part, but I assume Cunard is knocking themselves out to stay on top of disinfection. They've rerouted the ship away from Asia already. This leg is not optional, as it's the only way to get our dog across the pond, she can't fly and it's the only passenger ship with kennels. We'll just be very very careful. We've upgraded to a balcony cabin so we can have fresh air if we get stuck on board longer than planned. There are no ports between New York and Southampton, so no risk of new infection brought onboard en route. Risks: sailing is cancelled. It takes a year+ to get a kennel booking.
• More private travel: we've leased a car and will drive from Calais to central Italy. Same as above, hope quasi-isolation and private apartments keeps the bugs away from us. Risks: the route we chose is through northern Italy. We'll reroute through France if we have to, the bookings are still cancellable.
• Fallback plan: I'll have my family, my dog and my car with me. We'll find someplace to hole up in the U.S. or back in Canada until we can rebook. We can pay to store our furniture container if need be if we're late getting there. It will become clear between now and mid-April, I hope, if we need to replan. But If the Queen Mary 2 sails on schedule May 13, we have every intention of being on board her.

None of this involves much change to our existing plan, but I'm just looking at it through a risk mitigation lens as well as the "how to get our dog to Italy" lens. I thought this might provoke some other risk mitigation ideas on here...I'm all ears.

Nelly,
I can see why you are more desperate to go than I am. But the question is what conditions would cause you stay out of Italy? And is there value in deciding what those conditions are now, before you have to make a decision? I think deciding now is valuable because now we are less emotional than we we be when we have to make a final decision.

I know, I realize I didn't address the thread topic and almost deleted my message. I think your question is a good one. For everyone doing a round trip, I believe it's the impact at home which would create the criteria list for me:

• What are the CDC and my employer's recommendations/requirements - non-negotiable as you said. If you choose to violate known standards, you could not be able to get home or might get fired
• What are my usual social/work connections at home - can they be minimized without too much impact? e.g., do kids need to get back to school, do I have volunteer commitments I shouldn't skip, do I have elderly parents I need to visit, and of course do I work in an open area or in close contact with others?
• How do I move in my community - do I drive in my own car alone or do I take public transit to my work and social commitments?
• How is my health insurance? Is getting sick potentially a traumatic/bankrupting experience for me (U.S. persons only). This one's tricky because many people you may run into have less than great insurance, so it's not just you at risk for bankruptcy or lack of care
• Am I able to and committed to a self-quarantine when I get home? Or will I have to go out among others?
• Knowing that it's actually the transit in confined spaces (planes, trains, buses, airports) that creates the highest risk, not necessarily being in Europe, are there alternate ways to get to/from my destination that lower risk of contagion?

This is what I was trying to say using my personal example, but I didn't address the thread topic and I apologize.

For anyone like me doing a one-way trip, it's more about are there risk-mitigation strategies that reduce the risk of transit, and can I effectively self-quarantine at the other end. In my case, not really, because I will arrive to an empty house that needs everything set up.

This is a much easier topic to discuss when it's someone else's money. For those whose vacation savings are on the line, my thought process is as follows. For context, our trip is to Paris in early April and everyone is healthy. I'm very pessimistic it will happen due to some combination of the below.

Will the airline cooperate?
If a cancellation / credit / refund is offered, then I think this is a no-brainer.

What's going on in our destination?
If things are trending to a total shutdown, that doesn't sound like vacation and we'd probably cut our losses. But if some sights remain open and we can still get around, we'd strongly consider going. In our case, we've been to Paris before and if we need to spend more time in parks and cafes than museums, oh well.

What do the CDC, WHO, et al say?
Soon enough, it seems likely that everywhere in the world will be at Level 3 or higher. A month from now, traveling to New York may be no different from traveling to Paris. Practically speaking, my larger concern is ...

Can we self-quarantine?
If we're advised to not travel somewhere but still do, we owe it to society to self-quarantine. My wife and I can handle this, but it's complicated with school-aged kids.

Following. I would like to hear back from those on the fence about going, what you ultimately decide to do. Jen, applause. Your thoughts are reasonable and well thought out. We too, have an upcoming trip.

I wish that my trip was as far off as May or later. Yes, the virus still be making its mark, but that would have given me more time to cancel all the Airbnbs I booked!

My trip is the 22nd of this month. I have never wanted to stay home this much. Still on the fence. Keeping up to date with what’s going on in France, and trying to have a plan for when I’m there, IF I get covid19. I could get it at home, but I would be at home, where they speak my language and I have doctors who know my medical history.

My dilemma is slightly different. I am currently on holiday in Sri Lanka which is currently Coronavirus free. One Sri Lankan in Italy has the virus but none in the country, so I understand.

I am due to fly back to the UK in 2 weeks time. We have discussed whether to extend our stay here, assuming it remains virus free or whether to head home as planned. We will probably go home as scheduled, but we are likely to cancel our trip to France in May/June.

Ginger, I feel for you. If my trip to Italy were March 22 instead of May 3, I would probably change my plans.

my rule of thumb is if my government says I can go and if the plane is flying there I'm going...

That's basically my position. We're scheduled to go to France from mid-April to early May, and I'm desperate to go. But the "plane flying" part just got more problematic today, since we're flying Lufthansa.