It's not the odds of checked baggage being lost, it's the consequences! A lost bag with things you really need can ruin a vacation.
So, I put everything I absolutely have to have (and if you are disciplined, it's not really that much) in a bag to carry on. The rest of the stuff, since I know I can do without it, I assume will get lost anyway, so I leave it at home.
On one trip to Germany, I had one hour to make a connection in an eastern city. The plane was an hour late leaving Denver due to icing. There were 13 of us on the Denver flight who had to make the flight to Germany, so the airline met us at the gate with a van and took us to the international terminal. I had my carryon, with everything, on my lap. Also in the van were a couple of business men who had checked everything. They were walking around hands-free - fat, dumb, and happy. I suspect when they got to their destination, they were still fat and dumb, but no longer happy.
Several times, I have arrived back in Denver, jet-lagged, with just enough time to make the next bus home. Had I had to retrieve luggage, I wouldn't have made that bus and would have had to wait for the next one in an hour.