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Book with uncertainty about Omicron?

They're trying to determine how transmissible and virulent it is.

Some countries have imposed stricter rules, not just for travel but access to restaurants and other public places.

Early indications are it's more transmissible, better able to evade vaccines.

Been looking at some fares for like April to early June.

But this period may be too early. I think most of the EU nations didn't open up to American tourists until like early June?

There was also a column in the WSJ last week that a lot of pre-pandemic policies on cancellations and refunds were creeping back into the travel industry.

So be careful when you book. For instance, Airbnb has a filter that says "free cancellations." But some hosts will require cancellation like 2 months before the reservation to get a refund.

Or Hawaii Airbnbs are like you only get 50% back when you cancel before the end of the year.

So watch those carefully.

Posted by
7280 posts

Good advice to carefully watch all the policies and terms. In April of this year, we booked South Africa (South Africa!!!) for this coming April. And the president there just tested positive for Covid (no indication which version), and he was vaccinated, but just got back from a multi-country trip in Africa. Only mild symptoms, at least.

But we went to Italy this fall, with some restrictions, then lessening of restrictions, then increased restrictions, then allowable options between when we booked and when we went. April is a ways off still, and things will hopefully allow the safari to still happen in April 2022. If not, we’ll get a full credit for a future trip. Definitely check the terms for credits/refunds, but things could improve - or get worse in just a few months. Book now if you can, and if the trip can’t happen, ensure you have recourse.

Posted by
1542 posts

It's been a crapshoot since it all started, and will be for the next year. Yes, good advice to check terms and cancellation policies for accommodations, flights and whatever else you might arrange. I think two months cancellation notice is reasonable enough for apartments, and some (the ones I've looked at in Germany and France, not Airbnb) have even more generous cancellation policies.

Posted by
17649 posts

And look for destinations that have a pretty consistent track record or stated policy intent. The Balkans and Ukraine have remained consistent in their policies (open for the most part) for the better part of the year. Could change, but they have indicated they will fight another lockdown. Hungary fully opened in October and the government has made a commitment (and set up provisions to prevent the need) to avoid general lockdowns or border closures. None of them have much paperwork requirements.

For the airbnb, I checked the one I stay in most often and their policy is free in 48 hours, 50% up to a week prior and after that at least they refund the cleaning fee. Given the cost to them from Airbnb if they give you a full refund, I guess its not too bad. Worst case scenario for me would be a loss of about $300 for ten days.

I dont know what Turkish Air's written policy is but I have changed a few flights in the last year for about $250 a ticket (one was $25).

Posted by
2744 posts

My opinion is we are waiting on certainty I hope you’ve got a long time to wait it could be years

So I’m booked for March

Posted by
531 posts

Heading to Paris next week and Maui in May…..hopefully also RS GAS tour in July.

Posted by
17649 posts

I will confess, the transformer variant has me concerned about an increased risk of testing positive before the trip home. That, and a few worrisome reports of how those who test positive are managed in some countries has me thinking about taking a handful of self test kits with me. Before I get the "official" reported to the government test, I will self test. If I am positive, hunker in, put do not disturb sign on door and get touchless pizza delivery and keep testing till I pass. Then take the reported test. Best double check with the hotel and see if they will mind?

Posted by
114 posts

Canada may be shutting down travel.

Their case numbers aren't high yet and they see the US and Europe with winter waves.

Posted by
1613 posts

Just travelled in November, and we were lucky in that we seemed to hit a bit of a lull with Covid. Omicron was just starting to hit the news toward the end of our trip. I'm glad we went when we did. However, we were fully prepared to cancel, if necessary. All our reservations permitted cancellation, with the exception of a couple of museum tickets.

We are now starting to talk about going somewhere again in May (Turkey, Greece, and Croatia, perhaps?). We realize that everything will be uncertain for a while yet, but, again, we will book only refundable flights and accommodations, and cross our fingers.

We just had our third doses a few days ago, and we don't mind wearing masks and taking other precautions. We'd rather do that than not travel at all.

Of course, things shutting down is always a concern, but we aren't getting any younger, so we prefer to hope for the best and plan for the worst.

Posted by
17649 posts

I have traveled a lot since COVID began. This is the most worried I have been. Not of being sick, but of failing a test and having the trip disrupted.

My March trip will be simple. Hungary - Ukraine - Hungary. I'll self test in the room before I get on the flight to Kyiv, if I test positive, I will just stay home. My RT Ukraine ticket is a separate ticket and I will just burn the $100 it cost. Then keep self testing till I can pass the official test to go home to the US. Turkish Air charges $250 for a ticket change if I get stranded there a bit longer.

Which does raise another question, that I guess I will post.

Posted by
114 posts

Austria is ending a 20-day lockdown but they've increased travel restrictions.

They now require either full vaccination and PCR test or a booster.

Those EU citizens who are unvaccinated will have a mandatory 10-day quarantine.

Their lockdown drove cases from over 13k to 1800 yesterday.

Posted by
8261 posts

I think that the key is to determine the level of uncertainty that one is comfortable traveling with. My sister and I just cancelled our March trip to the UK because she felt that she could not risk getting in a situation (testing positive for Covid overseas) that would mean that she would not be back at work at the end of the trip. I felt okay about travel, but I don't have the work constraints she does. For us, not going at this time made sense. We weren't particularly more worried about the actual traveling aspect, merely the stress she felt regarding the test/quarantine issue risk. If you spend the entire time before and during your vacation stressing about the worst case scenario, it isn't much of a vacation. :)

Posted by
265 posts

Sitting on 2 1/2 weeks in Italy starting March 28. My only investment is the two RT airline tickets (mostly credits from 2020) so I can afford to wait. All hotels are pay as you go, minimal investment in tours, etc. Probably the only way to plan a trip these days.

Watching closely to anticipate the hassle factor vs the enjoyment factor. Retired so more flexible, but still would not care to be "stuck" in a hotel room for two weeks. Not particularly concerned about contracting the virus - that is what the vaccine is for - right? This is not retirement as planned - sigh.

Posted by
490 posts

There is increasing evidence that Covid is becoming a disease of the unvaccinated. I'll have as many boosters as I'm offered but I'm travelling next year - 2 years is too long to have my life on hold.

NZ is still planning on allowing residents back in with home isolation from end of Feb (instead of mandatory hotel quarantine). I'm feeling so optimistic that I've actually made some refundable bookings for the US in July and am starting to do some serious itinerary planning for Europe next Sept/Oct. If for whatever ever reason the cruise doesn't sail from San Francisco - we'll fly to Europe and do that part of the trip anyways.

I agree be careful - I've booked an Hawaii-Ca flight using points - because I would only pay a minor points penalty if I cancelled. I was contemplating SouthWest - but apparently they don't support a vaccine mandate for passengers so they are out. I am yet to book flight to or back to New Zealand - because the cancellation rules are pre-pandemic ie bad

Posted by
114 posts

There are no vaccine requirements for US domestic flights I believe.

Masks are required, for now.

Most of the cruise lines require vaccination though some states like FL are trying to block that requirement.

Posted by
9462 posts

Indeed, there is no vaccine requirement to fly domestically within the U.S.

Posted by
114 posts

A UK study says booster protection from symptomatic Omicron infections drops to 45% after 10 weeks.

Israel this week made a second booster available to people over 60 and health care workers.

But some more optimistic news as well, a few studies from Europe and South African indicating reduced chances of being hospitalized, as much as 80% reduction in hospitalization from Omicron.

Though these are very preliminary studies and experts advise waiting a few more weeks for better data on this question of whether Omicron infections are significantly less severe.