Be Patient

My thoughts entirely, Frank II. I hate being disappointed, so I wait for verifiable certainties.

Enough, already:

Can we say with any degree of certainty that vaccinated people are unlikely to spread COVID to unvaccinated individuals?
The emerging data confirms what many of us thought would be the case—that not only do the vaccines stop symptomatic COVID, but they also make it highly unlikely that someone can even be infected at all.

I think the preponderance of the evidence supports the fact that vaccinated individuals are not able to spread the virus.

This is from Johns Hopkins: https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/new-data-on-covid-19-transmission-by-vaccinated-individuals.html

Mike, your post has nothing to do with todays announcement. What they are still dealing with is which documents will be accepted and how to format them so they are understood in numerous languages.

There may be some people on this board who still think those vaccinated can easily spread it but not the officials working on opening up travel.

I wonder if we’ll have to go to AAA or CAA to get our International Vaccination Permit?

"Can we say with any degree of certainty that vaccinated people are unlikely to spread COVID to unvaccinated individuals?"

No. Vaccines are too new and variants rapidly developing. Thus: we just do not know- with a high degree of medical certainty*- at this time. Just like we do not know about annual boosters -yet. This is all rapidly changing and developing and hopefully it will all be very positive in regards to transmission.

Sadly we have too many non-medical "experts" at times spouting off and writing checks their (censored) can't cash.

*one of the first individuals to be given the Moderna vaccine in 2020 just received a 3rd shot--so things are looking towards a yearly; but again, the studies of that need have just begun.

** medical certainty" often used in court testimony has no solid legal definition in terms of probability across all 50 states. May experts set it low (just over 50% while others hold to a much higher standard of 95%). "Any degree of certainty" I would anticipate being 10% and above and I can produce a credible expert witness on any topic as to 10% certainty (well almost any topic. Obtaining a credible expert opinion on (censored) supporters having an average IQ over 85 would be factually impossible.)

"Many of us are excited hearing the news that the EU would like to open up to Americans this summer. But we must be patient. The news only came out today. There are lots of items that need to be worked out like what information will we need to provide and how will we do it, what will be required from us on return, what will be open, etc, etc, etc.

But we need to be patient. Remember, this is not an official announcement. It just lets us know they are working on it. And as soon as the details are worked out, we'll find out. Everything is just speculation until then."

Frank II NAILED IT!!!

What Frank II and OneFastBob said.

Over here, I am still waiting for the day when i don’t have to be in by 7 pm for curfew. Or can sit on a cafe terrace (forget inside).

They’ve said they may modify the curfew by May 3. We’ll see.

The words of one EU official isn’t the same as all the EU member states agreeing to a change in policy. It’s optimistic, but it’s not yet official policy. France as an example is some way off accepting visitors. New case numbers aren’t falling in Germany, Croatia or Spain, despite vaccinations.

It shows good progress, but the EU usually takes a long time to agree HOW things will happen. Things will open up, but patience will be required. Hopefully the measures will be reciprocal.

In the U.K., our proof of vaccination is a credit card sized piece of thin card that has been hand written with the date of vaccination and the vaccine number. I would imagine that it’s easy to forge were you so inclined. Is this all I would have to show to get into another country?

Yes, I'd agree with Kim... as I read these messages of Europe opening, I sit here in S. Holland STILL under lockdown, STILL under curfew, STILL having to deal with the restrictive, re-entry regulations that make it difficult (and expensive) to fly home, and I STILL cannot drive my car into neighboring Belgium or Germany (without an essential function verification or negative PCR Test).

Some of the NL regulations will be lifted this week. For example, we will be able to eat OUTSIDE at a restaurant late this week (limited seating). Yet, the case count here is still more than 7,000 new cases per day; that would equate to about 140,000 new cases per day in the USA - The USA was averaging just over 50,000 cases per day, as of late. Thus, the infection rate here is three times the current infection rate in the USA, and far fewer people are vaccinated in the NL.

Basically, we have the SAME new-case numbers as we had back in January when the restrictions were increased. Then, why is the gov't decreasing restrictions despite growing numbers, doctors' protests, and elective surgeries being deferred due to hospital overcrowding? Folks are simply COVID-exhausted. Yet, with this news, the biggest fear many locals have is, "We've been here before - decreasing restrictions - and within two months we were back into another lockdown." And they simply want the restrictions to end - not return.

Of course, there's much debate about vaccine efficacy, transmission from people who are vaccinated, etc. Regardless of that, numbers in the NL have NOT decreased even with lockdowns and curfews. Introducing millions of foreign travelers is well received by the tourist industry (and supporting businesses), but few others. It will be an interesting summer and let's hope we don't have to spend another Christmas in lockdown as a result.

Most of the word about reopening mentions "summer."

Many of the posts on this thread talk about lockdowns going on today.....April 26.

When did they move April into the summer?

Be patient. Vaccine numbers are increasing. A lot can happen between now and "summer"

The only important information will come from officials of the EU and their member states. Everything else is just personal opinion. That and $4 will get you a latte at Starbucks. And without your opinion, the latte will still cost $4. (Meaning....people's opinion means absolutely nothing.)

When did they move April into the summer?

Actually, it happened last year when our lockdown in April moved into the summer...

Over here, I am still waiting for the day when i don’t have to be in
by 7 pm for curfew. Or can sit on a cafe terrace (forget inside).

Here in the Upstate of SC, 47% of customers in the grocery store were wearing a mask on my last trip a couple of days ago. Some restaurants are declaring themselves "mask free," including a really good German restaurant the next city over (owned by a German wife and an Italian husband).

I talked to a young German dad last week who lives here now. Interestingly, he said all his young adult German friends want to move to the US to get away from COVID restrictions.

Patience. Working on that. Great post, Frank II.

On the bright side, the EU has announced improvements in vaccine supply. There should be enough supply by mid-July to cover 70% of adults. The logistics to get them into people’s arms are also improving. Shockingly, the Lazio region (including Rome) is leading most of Europe in rapid, well-organized administration of mass vaccination.

But as of today, Italians are allowed to travel freely almost anywhere within the country, bar a few regions with higher case rates. The vaccination rate is still low, with 20% with one dose and about 13% with both. I am afraid that Ron will be proven right, and April easing will lead to summer lockdowns again.

However, here’s hoping that science continues to support that vaccinated people are unlikely to give or take COVID and that travel will open this summer. I want to see Americans and Canadians generally and my family specifically. I will continue to wait patiently, but I am not going to travel outside my region until I can get a vaccine.

Patience and prudence. That’s the ticket.

Yes Frank II is right. If you read the actual official statements, like Macron's interview, you'll see that they are often full of qualifying wording that officials often use to imply progress without committing to anything definite. Words like "in talks with", "finalizing plans", "discussing", "planning for", "targeting", "progressively implement", "beginning in", etc. These are all ways to indicate anything from a hope to a goal. All plans are subject to being overtaken by events. Those nuances are often lost when the media writes headlines, or third parties pass on information, choosing to ignore the exact wording. The devil is in the details.

They, (all the countries imposing restrictions except possibly the US) have had to be thinking about this (when to end them) from the very beginning. That would be part of normal planning. And saying be patient is not Debbie Downer talk, its being realistic.

From the NY Times article:
“American tourists who have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 will be able to visit the European Union over the summer, the head of the bloc’s executive body said”

It wasn’t “one EU member” it was the head of the executive body. It will happen this summer, they’re just working out the details.

The words of one EU official isn’t the same as all the EU member
states agreeing to a change in policy. It’s optimistic, but it’s not
yet official policy. France as an example is some way off accepting
visitors. New case numbers aren’t falling in Germany, Croatia or
Spain, despite vaccinations.

And yet, Croatia is open which might indicate that the decision making process is more complex than raw COVID numbers. Then there are countries like Hungary where politics may be the only determining factor. Like the early days of the lockdowns, 75% of the EU went one way, 25% with variations on the EU standard. A few even locked their borders early to the dissatisfaction of the EU and contrary to WHO advice who was saying at the time that travel restrictions would be counter productive.

This Guardian article re-reports the info in the Times article (while adding some info re the UK), but I liked the map they have accompanying the article that shows where Covid rates are currently the worst in Europe (the big black holes of Turkey, Croatia, France, Sweden. . .)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/26/eu-vaccinated-americans-holiday-europe-summer-ursula-von-der-leyen-non-essential-travel?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Great post, Frank.

Good advice Frank.

Dear Ursula (EU President) has a habit of saying one thing, then rapidly backtracking eg the Oxford/ AstraZeneca situation a few months ago, so take anything she says with a very large pinch of salt.

James E - there’s a difference between countries opening up and those where people may feel comfortable travelling to if case numbers are rising, even if travel is legally allowed. Obviously all countries need to balance the health and the economic situations for both domestic and international populations.

Nick - I think the NHS is stretched enough without having to provide travel data!

Has there been much coverage of the USA opening up to incoming tourists?

Summer doesn't begin until June 21. If the EU leaders can't figure it out by then, the Europeans need to find new leaders.

For those who aren't comfortable traveling, then don't. If you have a vaccine I don't know what the problem is.

Good post Frank II. Patience. I'm still hoping my "county" opens up soon let alone the EU. My community is very mask/social distance complaint and yet we are seeing an increase in cases county wide.

James E - there’s a difference between countries opening up and those
where people may feel comfortable travelling to if case numbers are
rising, even if travel is legally allowed. Obviously all countries
need to balance the health and the economic situations for both
domestic and international populations.

Absolutely. It crazy that I have to say it, but do with most of my posts: If you ain't going to enjoy it, don't do it.

And "if its legal, go" is not exactly my message these past few months. More, "if they are accepting tourists, and you think you will enjoy it, then go."

Frank II, sorry, but I can't be patient. I am putting about a two week delay on my trip to time it with a certain event; but first week of June, I am leaving.

But James, I believe you are going to a place that is already open to Americans.....so.....no need to be patient. Have a good time.

Actually, a different plague is messing with the trip.

The recent comments from von der Leyen are encouraging, but nothing is certain. I do have a trip booked for Italy in late September, and am keeping my fingers crossed. Vaccination rates in the EU are picking up after a late start, and indications are, so far, that fully vaccinated individuals are unlikely to contract or spread the virus. However, there are still breakout cases, including some breakout fatalities (though rare). No one said the vaccines were 100%. A new variant could also pop up that blows through the protection from the vaccines.

Cautionary tale:
Here in Oregon a month and a half ago we had the lowest 7-day average new case rate in the continental US, below 7/100,000/day. We opened up bars and restaurants and dropped other restrictions. As of yesterday we have 28.3% of the population fully vaccinated and 42.2% with at least one dose. We are now running about 20/100,000/day, in the top 25 of the nation, and headed up. Hospitals and ICUs are getting close to the danger point.

Any idea where the hot spots are in Oregon?

We really only closed for a few months, and opened all the way about a month ago. Our infection rate is low and going down although slowly. Our death rate sank quickly and continues down. I hope in the future when calmer, less political minds, look at everything they are able to figure out the factors that caused such disparities in results.

BigMike, I agree!

Its just common sense; the forum is like infotainment for retirees these days

To follow up on AllenJ’s cautionary tale: Through her current project my wife knows a University nurse (UC Davis) who 2 weeks post her 1st Pfizer vaccine (1 week to go for #2) when she became ill and tested positive for Covid. She was only slightly ill- cold like symptoms for only about 48 hours. Then fine. However. Isn’t there always a however? She had enough of it to pass it on to her husband. He spent a week in the hospital. Mostly recovered but he still gets easily exhausted.

Thank you Frank II. Everything is just speculation at this time. You nailed it!

For context on onefastbob's story:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/cdc-says-there-have-been-less-than-6000-breakthrough-covid-cases-among-fully-vaccinated-americans.html

And some more context that I didn't realize until just recently:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/

James E (and others): A good site for current infection rates is:
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
You can drill down to state and county, rolling over a county will pop up the current rate per 100,000 residents, etc. As of today, Grant County is running 111.1 per 100,000. That does sound horrible, but the population is under 7500, and the current rate is 8 new infections per day. Multnomah County (most of Portland, averages 155/day, but that is spread over 813,000 people, and still results in 19.1/100,000.

@ James E:

https://www.opb.org/article/2021/04/23/covid-19-oregon-high-risk-variants-kate-brown/
https://www.opb.org/article/2021/04/27/oregon-restaurants-bars-covid-19-restrictions/
https://pdx.eater.com/2021/4/27/22406006/restaurant-bar-shutdown-indoor-dining-portland-april

And what the heck....32,000,000 Covid cases to date in the US. And only 573,000 dead. So no biggie**. Unless you are one of those 573,000- if they could talk I'm sure they would have an opinion on context.

** EDIT. The phrase "no biggie" is and was intended to be highly sarcastic. 573,000 Americans dead. The vaccines are not perfect. So yes, even with the vaccine there are still serious issues of potentially passing on the virus to others. Science is working hard on the issue but there is not clear cut answer- no matter how many want to argue otherwise. The very first vaccine testers are now receiving their 3rd shots...why, because they just don't know how long the vaccine lasts, its impact of transfer, the impact of variants etc. This is all too soon. Sorry, this isn't TV science where you have solid definitive answers in 60 minutes. Being fully vaccinated appears to significantly (understated) reduce the odds of transmission but an absolute block- sorry the science just isn't there yet

And only 573,000 dead ‘so no biggie’ unless you are one of those 573,000- if they could talk I'm sure they would have an opinion on context.

I take exception, and I am alive but my dear cousin isn’t.
One friend is a long hauler and the other was in the ICU for a month and appears to be a long hauler. Unfortunately for my cousin, I have to speak for her.

AlanJ, thank you for the link. Much appreciated. Its hard to say "good" about anyplace as long as a life is involved. The count is now 9 family members within 2 degrees of separation that so far have contracted it through service in COVID units or as the spouses or children of those that have served in COVID units this past year. I have a very large nursing family and they all went to the "front". My daughter spent much of it as a contract nurse in COVID units in NY and NJ and still works a COVID unit today. She's pretty burned out and is heading to Europe with me in June for a little R&R. I am blessed, they are all doing or did okay. If anyone runs across data on the "long haul" patients I would be interested. Cant seem to find any.

James E.
There are different studies out there and here is one article from WebMd. I believe more data will become readily available as more time passes.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210219/a-third-of-covid-survivors-have-long-haul-symptoms

Diane, thank you. I have some feelings about the article but that would require me delving into the numbers and I am trying not to do that publicly. Let me ask another question. How many Americans have contracted the disease (diagnosed and undiagnosed)? Anyone know where I can find that estimate?

I no longer have a link to the article, but about a week or two ago I read that data analysis (could have been in the UK rather than the US) showed a significant increase in the death rate for people within six (?) months of infection with COVID-19, beyond those who died directly of the disease. We just don't know all the ramifications of this virus.

acraven. Interesting and something that I assume is being followed. If it pans out to be significant (no, I am not about to define significant) one would hope we would determine the cause(s) and address them. The two questions are; 1) how relevant is this "unknown" when determining the rest of your life (there is no right or wrong answer) and 2) how relevant is this "unknown" when determining the health of a society (short term like in mental health and long term as in starvation). I don't pretend to have the answer and absolutely no judgment. Just pointing out that you have raised a difficult scenario.

Thanks to everyone who contributed positively to this thread. This thread is starting to invite some of the topics we'd rather not have and I needed to clear out a few things. I'm locking the thread.