Just doing some checking of air fares round-trip to London, I was surprised to see that the fares seem substantially higher than they were a year ago. Looking at fares for mid-week flights in May, I saw pricing over $1,800 per person.
I was just wondering whether others looking at fares have noticed a trend of much higher fares for flights in 2016.
Try using flights.google.com. They check most airlines and even provide alternate dates/airports that can make a big difference in price. I checked May 10-18 from Lafayette to London and came up with prices from $1,097 (leaving from New Orleans) to $1,420. Prices do seem a little higher for 2016 but I am not sure if that's across the board. Another bit of advice - if you can get cheap fares to Chicago, Miami, New York, Boston, or Washington, try looking for trans-Atlantic flights from those locations. You may be able to piece an itinerary together that way. Norweigan Air, WOW airlines and Iceland Air are usually the cheapest but you pay extra for things like a seat, food, and baggage. I checked WOW and they have a fare from Boston to London for under $1,300 for 2 people (total, not each).
That seems extremely high for economy class. What website are you using to check fares, and from where? Are you limiting by airline or number of stops or anything? Obviously economy plus will be more, $1800 might be normal for that. Not for basic economy, I don't think.
I did a basic search on Kayak.com for a random set of days in May (midweek) from New Orleans to London and came up with a lot of options under $1200. My experience has been that fares are actually a bit lower this year from my area, but this obviously varies by region.
Hi Richard,
We are looking at flights NJ to Munich in either mid or late May 2016. At the moment Lufthansa and United are around $1,650 per person. For the same time frame, a Tues. departure with a Friday return, it's $800 to $900 on Icelandair. Both are for basic economy.
I see $1050 in early May on Air Canada and $1115 in late May on United. Air Canada through Toronto and United through Newark. Those seem about right to me.
Not that anything is cheap, but 1800 sounds high. I connect through Houston and can generally get an open jaw ticket on United/Lufthansa for under $1500 and I am picky about connection times, etc. The cheapest has been running a few hundred less. For grins, price round trip to Toronto on which ever carrier is the cheapest ..... then price a second RT to London, again on the cheapest carrier you can find. Doesn't seem logical, but might save you a few hundred.
Check out Baton Rouge. One-stop options with British Airways or Delta are around $1450.
2015 that was a typical full service airline round trip, but I have seen much cheaper for 2016 on the major carriers.
I have only been flying the cheaper European airlines (Icelandair or Condor, I don't have the Norwegian option).
Richard, my observation is this: the airlines have an extremely complex and sophisticated scheme for coming up with fares. I think they scrutinize every fare and every flight continually to come up with fares that are impossible for us consumers to predict. Right now, in pricing seats for May 2016, they are juggling predictions on their direct and indirect costs, fuel and labor costs, competitors, and global economics and security. All that with the hope to maximize their revenue. So they price seats on an auction basis. They put out a fare now, with a certain profit margin and see what the market does. If the seats sell out now, five months out, at a price of $1800, that means the price is too low, and they immediately raise it. If no seats sell now, they know they need to reduce the fare. But when and how much they change the fares is based on their sophisticated analysis of consumer buying habits, searches on their websites, and historical trends. Supply and demand ends up setting the price of the ticket you end up buying, on a micro-basis.
Its even more complicated when pricing fares with connecting flights, such as for those of us who don't live near gateway airports.
Do a search on skyscanner.com and buy from airline. They query days/weeks/months for cheapest flights. Don't buy from third party.
Look at major hubs in States i.e. NYC/LAX. Cheapest to fly into London first and then look at Ryanair/Easyjet for flights to other countries in Europe.
I have found Icelandic Air, Norweign to be the cheapest for flights to London.
Thanks to all who have provided or will provide their insight.
Again, I am talking about pricing by one airline, Delta, for mid-week, one-stop (Atlanta), round-trip fares from Lafayette, Louisiana, to London. In March, the fares are $1,315. In early May, they are $1,418. And by mid-May, they climb to $1,778.
Out of New Orleans, the fares in March are less expensive, $1,161. However, the early May fares are only a tad lower ($1,393), and the mid-May and early June fares are a tad high ($1,793).
I was just checking fares, in part out of curiosity as to whether the recent events in Europe have resulted in lower fares--I am not in the process of actually booking flights. But it does seem that the fares are 10-15 percent higher than they have recently been.
In March, the fares are $1,315. In early May, they are $1,418. And by mid-May, they climb to $1,778.
This graduation of fares seems similar to what also occurs out of Australia.
Those people wanting to book way in advance, to secure the flight they want, have to be prepared to pay a premium for travel in the busier periods. Now these price differences may flatten out as next March rolls around and airlines begin to discount to sell remaining seats. Look out for 'spot sales' at any time as airlines try to stimulate demand for a particular time. If you are looking for last minute travel in summer, the fares are usually through the roof as well, unless the plane is nearly empty (and that is very rare) !!
It all really, really depends. From my markets (I am willing to use several airports within driving distance, and one near my sister's home - I just visit her beforehand), booking very early has given the best fares. I'm talking 10 months out fares under $1000, by 4-6 months it's a couple hundred higher, and just seems to go up from there. I would not personally book any closer than 2 months so haven't looked at those fares. I would think they are higher still, but I guess I can't say for certain. Also, booking on a Saturday has been cheaper than booking in the middle of the week. But flying midweek is better than flying on the weekend, sometimes. Wednesday/Thursday to Thursday/Friday (1-3 weeks later) is my favorite. Finally, right now is Thanksgiving - I wouldn't be surprised if fares spike for booking around a holiday (people are together, possibly discussing travel and booking tickets). That last part is just a guess, I have no idea if it's true...but it makes sense.
Couple things...
1. Yes, booking right around Thanksgiving is probably not helping. I'd give it a rest for a week or so and try again.
2. Lots of good, common sense advice above - look at flights mid-week, look at flights from major hubs (Lafayette, Louisiana - seriously?), etc.
The above all assumes that price is your primary - actually, your only - criteria. You know, there ARE other variables you can shop for...
Of course, nobody likes to throw money away, but read all the complaints on this forum about how horrible the airline experience these days. That's because the airlines are giving you exactly what you keep telling them you want: the lowest possible price, and the heck with any other consideration. Seat comfort? Fuggedaboudit! Reasonable connections? Fuggedaboudit! A pillow, never mind an actual meal? Fuggedaboudit! Customer service? HAH!
There ARE differences between the airlines (and even between two flights on the same airline). You do have the option to consider seat comfort (remember that?) and other amenities beyond the low bid. Just sayin'... when you keep telling the airlines that you ONLY care about the absolute lowest fare, that's how they give it to you (by cutting their costs on other things...like leg room). Just some food for thought (because all the food they're probably going to give you on that 12 hour ordeal is a little pack of peanuts).
David nailed it pretty good. It's not about the cheapest ticket. The cheapest ticket always has this impossible 40 minute layover in Frankfurt; or the 6 hour layover in Amsterdam; or something similar. Then there is one departure city I am often forced to use that 5 out of the last 5 departure flights have either been canceled or have been so significantly late that if I didn't arrange for at least a 3 hour layover I wouldn't have made the overseas connection. Booking the earlier departure to get the additional layover time generally adds $100 to the ticket cost.
Then you have to factor in special events that will affect the ticket cost. If I want to get to Budapest the cheapest decent flights lately have been through Munich; except in October naturally.
djp_syd Here are the statistics on when to purchase airline tickets. But read the fine print. Even with all this data its still pretty random: https://www.cheapair.com/blog/travel-tips/when-to-buy-airline-tickets-based-on-1-5-billion-airfares/ Of course my definition of a good flight may not exist if I wait till the magic window. So.........
My experience is the same as Mira's, booking early nearly always pays off with the lowest fare. I think only the markets with the luxury of 5+ international carriers might experience last minute discounts, but I just don't see them.
This is the critical link for international https://cdn.cheapair.com/uploads/2015/02/CheapAir-Best-Time-to-Book-Flights.jpg
The only exception to buy early is Latin America, and my experience is that this is quite true, the discounts for Latin America come well after fares are first posted.
Departures from Montreal to Paris or London are being offered for certain dates between now and April at under $700 CAD, by Air Transat and Air France. Lucky us in Montreal.
Again, thanks to all who have responded, and I may not have made clear the purpose of the original post. It was not to find the lowest possible fare. But I was curious as to whether recent events in Europe and the outlook for continued low fuel price fares had impacted, hopefully a tad downward, fares for flight to Europe, and I found that, if anything, pricing seems higher.
One post expressed surprise that I would fly out of Lafayette--the airport is 15-20 minutes from my house, and we are serviced by Delta, United, and American. But again, I was looking for an apples-to-apples comparison. I generally find that fares out of Lafayette are competitive with those out of New Orleans and Baton Rouge (with the exception of some advance fares on Southwest out of New Orleans), and in my three trips to Europe in the past eight or so years (with the last trip in the summer of 2014), I have always flown out of Lafayette. (And with international travel, I generally book as far ahead as possible and try, when possible, to use American Express points).
I looked at the fares out of several cities to London for three different time periods in 2016. All of the time periods involve a Thursday departure and a Tuesday return (and I understand that flying on different days of the week could have lowered the fare by $50 or so.) This is what I found:
March 10-22
Delta--Lafayette (1,364), Baton Rouge (1,368), New Orleans (1,169), Atlanta (1,186)
United--Lafayette (1,364), New Orleans (1,163), Houston (1,137)
American--Lafayette (1,369), New Orleans (1,170), Dallas (1,415)
May 12-24
Delta--Lafayette (1,467), Baton Rouge (1,471), New Orleans (1,447), Atlanta (1,567)
United--Lafayette (1,367), New Orleans (1,189), Houston (1,190)
American--Lafayette (1468), New Orleans (1451), Dallas (1,508)
Oct. 6-18
Delta--Lafayette (1,467), Baton Rouge (1,471), New Orleans (1,442), Atlanta (1,533)
United--Lafayette (1,467), New Orleans (1,443), Houston (1,517)
American--Lafayette (1,468), New Orleans (1,452), Dallas (1,508)
Some of you have commented on the factors used by the airlines in setting fares. However, it is interesting that the fares out of the hub cities can be higher and that at times the fares charged by the airlines can be nearly identical. But again, my post raised a general question about fares for flights to Europe because of recent events.
I live in a town sort of like Lafayette. I have to take a 1 hour flight to one of two major hubs before I can cross the Atlantic. I have priced the tickets directly from that hub and found that my short 1 hour flight for all intents and purposes is free.
