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Air Fare Alert

This might be a good time for those still shopping for next year's flights to take a look.

For about two weeks I've been watching fares on this itinerary:

April 8 Washington DC to Madrid (one stop; apparently no non-stops in April)
August 22 London to Washington DC (non-stop)

There weren't a lot of attractive options for me since I avoid small airlines, tight connections, and connections in the US. My favorite possibility was KLM+KLM outbound (change in Amsterdam) and Virgin Atlantic on the return. The price of the routing was about $900. I checked daily, hoping to buy on a dip, but the price didn't vary by more than a few dollars. I thought perhaps something interesting would happen over the Columbus Day weekend, but no. I hated the thought of paying so much from the east coast; $900 felt a bit pricey for such an early purchase. Still, holding off on that peak-period August return felt pretty risky.

When I checked late last night (Tuesday), I saw a bunch of sub-$700 fares. When I dug into them, they were Basic Economy and wouldn't end up that much cheaper than my preferred routing, plus they had less attractive schedules. I suspect the airline(s) had just added the Basic Economy option, so those pre-existing routings had jumped to the top of the list on Google Flights. So no real help for me there.

But it occurred to me that the mere presence of those apparently-lower fares might have an impact on other offerings for my route, so I decided to see what happened in the next 24 hours or so.

When I checked today, my preferred flights were priced at $594 (bought through Delta). That includes one checked bag but not seat selection. Choosing the transatlantic seat cost me $23. I'll let the other two seats ride until check-in time, I think. I believe Virgin Atlantic's seat-selection fee is a lot higher.

Fares are very specific to origin, destination and date, and I may have been unusually lucky, but if you're in the market, price out your itinerary today.

Posted by
3183 posts

Thanks acraven, I have 2 trips on my books I need airfare for, so I will look today. Will probably not get that price from Anchorage though!
So are you going to London or Madrid?

Posted by
26829 posts

I'm retired, so I'm going to spend just about the Schengen limit in southern Spain and western France, then on about Day 88 I'll fly to Scotland for a few weeks before heading south by train, ending up in London.

It's a multi-city (open-jaw) itinerary that worked out (today!) at a very reasonable price. You just never know how those will be priced. Once I selected the KLM outbound flights, I had very few options for non-stops back home. But I only needed one.

I know Anchorage is a painful place to fly out of, even if you're just going to the Lower 48.

Posted by
8375 posts

Delta has had a couple of short sales here recently, so its worth watching them if you miss this sale. The last two years, they've had a great sale the week of Thanksgiving too. Always impossible to predict, but great if you catch it.

Posted by
26829 posts

Yes, there's anecdotal evidence from posts on this board that interesting things sometimes happen around holidays. That's why I was hopeful for the Columbus Day weekend. However, fares gyrate a lot, so the holiday thing may just be our imagination.

For this year's trip I watched my itinerary (into Budapest early May, home from London early September) bounce from $800+ to $1300+ over and over again, for one or two days at a time. It was very peculiar. Such movements are why we always recommend that folks watch fares for awhile before buying. I wasn't entranced by what I paid last year (I think around $900), but at least I didn't buy at $1300!

Posted by
13800 posts

Holy cow, that is excellent! Thanks for mentioning your experience...gotta get on this. I appreciate the info about Thanksgiving week as well. I was just telling a friend today that I thought there were some deals on Black Friday weekend as everyone is diverted for other activities.

Posted by
12172 posts

I looked at round trip to Dublin in May. I found $537 on Icelandair with a change in Reykjavik. It's about as good as it will get but I'm not ready to jump today.

Posted by
26829 posts

I use Google Flights. I formerly used Kayak, which was fine. Google Flights doesn't sell tickets; it directs you to sources that do (primarily airlines). I think Kayak does the same, but I haven't used it recently.

Folks willing to buy from a third-party site to save money (such as those stuck with high-cost origin airports) might benefit from looking at a website like Expedia, which does sell flights itself, occasionally at a considerably lower cost than the airlines operating the flights. Before buying from a third-party site, it would be a really good idea to post the details on this forum to see whether someone else sees a possible problem you may have overlooked.

Posted by
5697 posts

I got our under-$500 SFO-CDG flights for last May right around the prior Halloween -- one of those flash sales that pop up randomly.

Posted by
12 posts

Thank you so much “acraven” for sharing the information about the great prices offered through Delta last week! Living in central Iowa, I figured there was no way any of the low-priced flights would be available out of Des Moines, but checked last Friday after reading your post and surprise - I found an amazing option and spontaneously jumped at the chance to take our first trip to Spain! We purchased round trip tickets for $532 per person DSM-ATL-MAD then home BCN-ATL-DSM. I was even able to select our seats. We’re excited for our upcoming 2-week trip and appreciative of your kindness in posting!

Posted by
5503 posts

Wow, Wendy, you got an amazing rate! What time of year are you traveling?

Posted by
26829 posts

That does sound incredible for travel from Iowa, Wendy. I'm so glad you saw it and grabbed it. You never know when something like that might pop up. The key thing is that you have to go look. If you don't, good opportunities can come and go.

Posted by
12 posts

Jules, we will be heading there in mid-April. We realized after buying the tickets that Easter is later than usual in 2019; we will get to experience Holy Week in Spain. Currently doing lots of research!

Posted by
1103 posts

A few weeks ago I booked a flight round trip Boston to Paris on Delta leaving on 4/17/19 and returning on 5/7/19. The fare was $492 including checked bag and advance seat selection.

Norwegian flies the route, so it seems that Delta is responding to that.

Posted by
26829 posts

Update: The tickets I bought two weeks ago ($594 to Madrid April 8, back from London August 22) are now priced at $1191. Even by the airlines' wacko standards, that's an insane amount of fluctuation.

This is why it is so important to track prices for awhile. I hope no one is buying at $1191.

Posted by
5503 posts

@acraven, when I was looking at purchasing Minneapolis to Madrid, it was $1300! I waited a few weeks and it didn't change much. I ended up using miles which was fine, and actually the miles I "paid" were fairly reasonable/typical. It might depend on the market and competition how wildly rates can fluctuate. Usually what happens to me, is I find an ok rate where the decision isn't exactly clear.

Posted by
26829 posts

It does seem that there's more fluctuation in some markets than in others, and it varies with the route as well. My point is just that it's worth the time to monitor the situation unless you're getting such a late start on the flights that you're worried that the fares will only go higher. (I feel that way when I'm just 60 days out, whether or not that is reasonable.) Folks who travel frequently develop a sense about how things work from their home airport. The only thing I know about what happens outside my area is what folks post on this forum.

I'd have used miles at that price point, too. I actually used miles last winter for a time-specific trip I was making to San Jose. It overlapped New Year's Day and was very expensive for a domestic flight, so the miles made sense.

Posted by
5503 posts

Oh, @acraven, absolutely agree that it is good to monitor fares for a while. I'm just jealous you can get such great rates! Do you fly out of DC? I now have a close friend that lives in Bethesda and in the future, I might just need to fly there for a few days and then off to Europe!

Posted by
14481 posts

The fare paid for the last trip was exactly $500 dep OAK non-stop on 28 April 2018 for Gatwick and returning 7 June non-stop Gatwick to OAK r/t with Br Air.. we'll see if a comparable ticket for the summer 2019 trip is possible.

Posted by
26829 posts

Yes, I use Washington-Dulles, and I can usually find something fairly reasonable with one change of planes in Europe. Not always under $600--that's why I like having some airline miles available. If you have the flexibility to do it, visiting your friends here could be a winning strategy.

We don't have very many options for non-stop flights (NYC is a lot better), so you often have to really pay attention to get a good deal on the non-stops that do exist.

Posted by
3985 posts

Update: The tickets I bought two weeks ago ($594 to Madrid April 8,
back from London August 22) are now priced at $1191. Even by the
airlines' wacko standards, that's an insane amount of fluctuation.

This is why it is so important to track prices for awhile. I hope no
one is buying at $1191.

Wow, you nailed it! Congrats. When fare deals pop up, even from JFK, if you can grab them, what a deal!