Airline fares

No one knows. I would set a price that you are comfortable with and buy when close to that. You will never buy the cheapest ticket without some luck. Like buying stock. There are some websites that give historical pricing data - farecompare.com - and bing.com does offer a forecasting function. How reliable ?? Current discussion suggests that fares will be higher this year will hold. Airline capacities are down so the number of excess seats that need to be sold at the last minute are few. Fuel prices are up and the dollar is weak so who knows?

Thanks!

I'm already locked in for the year and am done following it for a while, but it will be very interesting to see how rising oil prices will impact fares and fuel surcharges this year. There was a period of time back around late 2008 – early 2009 where you could buy a RT fare in late fall (Nov) for $500 - $700 total. But the economy really tanked and a huge surge in oil prices prompted the airlines to create those big fuel surcharges along with all the other new fees (checked baggage, etc.). Fares rose. Then, they cut capacity and routes to keep fares up. They've stayed up. You still see the regular seasonal changes in fares, but they're not as dramatic. Many might feel lucky to nab a $1000 fare for October this year. Follow Frank's advice. Monitor fares to get a baseline, set a good price in your head & get agreement from your travel partner, monitor fares for a few weeks starting now, and buy a fare as soon as you see one that meets all of your criteria. Don't call your partner...it could be gone when you get back online. Good luck!!! BTW, US oil demand is way down, but prices per barrel are rising. Maybe we should stop jacking around with Iran so we can have cheaper vacations?

I just did a quick search on Kayak.com for some randomly chosen mid-week dates in October from DC to London and Paris to DC ("multi-city" aka "open-jaw" flights). I chose DC because I didn't know where you would fly out from. USAir was the lowest price at $1011/p. Most were $1100+ NYC is generally the most economical departure point on the east coast, if there is a cheap way for you to get there. In normal times, I would say that seems a little high for east coast departures in the shoulder season. But these are not normal times. It's possible that somewhere close to $1000 is the best price you're going to see. We generally buy very early (like 6-8 months early) for high-season flights, but for October, I think you might be able to afford to wait a month or two and see if fares move at all. If they don't move much and oil prices continue to move up, I would bite the bullet and buy at anything close to $1000. Having the tickets taken care of will give you piece of mind and let you plan the rest of your trip with confidence. Enjoy!

We are going in Sept 2012 and flying open jaw. I have been watching fares for past 2 months and they have not budged. We're still looking at paying $1200 which is what we paid when we went 3 yrs ago. I also live in Kansas which does not always get the best deals (:

it's really best to check fares constantly and hope for a dip. The forecasting sights are not accurate and even fare watch sights won't always update you to a great fare. Fares will probably not be going down anytime soon due to high fuel prices and steady demand.

Hi Richard. I'm going to Paris and London in Sept. and was watching fares for a few weeks. (I stopped because my sister applied for a passport and it won't arrive until the middle of March at the earliest. Even if I find a good price I can't buy the tickets, so I don't want to know if I'm missing anything!) Some people find good prices by waiting until the "last minute" - a month or so before their trip. I agree with what other posters have said. Decide on a "good" price and keep looking! It appears that my sister and I will be paying around $1,100 per ticket. Anything below that is a great price.

Thanks to all! Good advise

In general, airfares are related to the cost of aviation fuel, which is a significant part of their cost of getting you across the pond with those big jet engines that suck fuel; which is related to the cost of gas you pay at the pump, which is related to oil price, etc. So the question becomes, what is a reasonable projection of what will happen to oil price in the period between now and when you want to buy airfare? The airlines presumably don't pay spot prices for aviation fuel, instead having prices locked in with contracts but only for a period of time in the future. The airlines know when those fuel contracts will expire, they have a projection of what they think will happen to future oil and aviation fuel prices, and will act accordingly. They feel they cannot and will not eat significant increases in cost of fuel, and so guess who will pay it?
Yep.

Many travel gurus will say buy 60 days out. 2012 is different year than most years. Who knows what's going to happen with the uncertainies surrounding the southern EU countries and also the Iran crisis. We're seeing $700 flights for March, going up to $850 for April, $1100 in May and $1500-1700 through the middle of the Summer. I would suggest watching the fares in Kayak.com in August. If they start trending up, buy then.