Covid-19 Safety Protocols

I don't think anyone here is an epidemiologist. Or a practicing psychic. All anyone here can do is offer a guess. So for what it's worth, (considerably less than 2 cents) I think they will be recommended well through next year, but followed by fewer and fewer. Call me a cynic, but I doubt herd immunity will be reached in many countries.

I agree with CJean. I wanted to be an epidemiologist but decided early on in college that I was not going to be one. I studied just enough to have to do some work at the County where I worked though. It’s too early to know what Europe or the US will look like in 2022. Once those vaccinated who want to be vaccinated, a booster will be required next year? Will Europe be able to booster their population timely? Will the vaccinated in the US all get a booster?
Too many questions. One could hope that enough people worldwide would continue to keep up with the recommend booster.
I agree that herd immunity isn’t going to happen.

I think it should be over by next spring or summer.

Oh yes. The COVID viruses will be meeting about then at their annual convention. They will likely vote on having done enough damage and will all go away. Please! And James, Mario Cuomo is dead. Truth is, this virus will be with us for the foreseeable future. What will change is our ability to keep up the vaccine coverage in the light of viral mutation and the very promising, but early, development of specific anti-COVID drugs. If you were in healthcare in the early days of AIDS (I was) things looked very dismal. Some of the predictions were frightening with large percentage of the population succumbing especially in Africa (and it was and still is a killer disease). But along comes science, American pharmaceutical brilliance, and we now have a chronic controllable disease. So, for COVID, follow the science. The regulations regarding masks, distancing etc, should be doing that but often policy makers don’t follow science. You should. I’ll travel when I know the vaccines are keeping up and the pills in my bag will save my bacon just in case. Not when some politico in the EU decides what is best.

Re: comment on herd immunity. No one knows how long antibody protection from prior infection lasts; it’s assumed that vaccination results in more robust protection. There is no European country where some mythical 50% of the population was infected. A huge portion of the population of Manaus (Brazil) was assumed to have prior infection. Somewhere around 66-70+ percent - likely the highest in the world. But what happened in Manaus? Huge second wave, lots of deaths. That should be a cautionary tale to those who hang their hats on natural immunity through infection. Too many unknowns.

Europe is not a single monolithic entity. Protocols will depend on each country’s trade offs between safety/health and other factors (economic, political, social, etc)

The original question was about European safety protocols ending, which is a different question (as James E says) than when the risk of COVID ends. Agnes is right that herd immunity is a moving target, and not in itself a measure of success - just a means to an end. Politicians are making those decisions to ease restrictions based on other criteria.

The U.K. scientists are warning here that mask wearing or some sort of social distancing may be normal life for a year or two, particularly over the winter. The concern being voiced by them isn’t the vaccination or infection rates here, but what is happening globally. Vaccine mutations are likely to occur in parts of the globe where Covid is still rife, they say, such as India. The big unknown is if those currently vaccinated will have any/limited/full protection against these variants, hence the concern about the future.

The U.K. government is planning on giving us all a Covid vaccination booster this autumn.

Herd immunity isn’t some sort of binary. 50% fully vaccinated will not technically get herd immunity but it will significantly lower cases and transmission. Combine that with the previously infected but unvaccinated, and the fact that the highest risk population (the elderly) are more vaccinated than average, and we will be seeing much lower cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Real world data from Israel shows that at roughly 50% vaccinated things start dropping. The US should be seeing this very soon. Last I looked Europe is likely to hit that mark in July-ish (this could have changed but I’m pretty sure it’s summer).

Epidemiology does not predict the lifespan of public health measures. For better or worse that is a public policy and sociological issue. Epidemiology will tell you what the risk is. Nothing is ever 0 risk so at what point does a society decide x number of cases is ok? When covid deaths/cases are lower than the flu? When everyone who wants to is fully vaccinated? When some calculation shows the economic cost is too high? When the population collectively decides to stop caring? I can’t answer that accurately, it will depend on the country’s interpretation of all the factors.

I can’t answer but I can make a prediction/educated guess. Indoor masks through mid 2022 at least, but an increasingly lax attitude to official social distance policies. For example, people ignoring the 6foot stickers in line areas or restaurants pushing the tables to 5 feet. Outdoor mask requirements will go away very soon. If there are case increases in winter (seasonality seems to be a feature of this virus), expect restrictions to increase again during that time. If there is no real spike, just a slight increase in winter that goes away in spring then I’d guess things will be close to normal this time next year. I’m basing this on what I’m hearing from friends in Israel, what I’m seeing in the US, vaccine timeframes, and logic. I have no crystal ball and make no promises!

Agnes, a serious question. Why did the Black Death, Spanish Flu, the
killer flu in the 1950's and Swine Flu go away?

I don't know the history behind each one of these, way before my time (except the swine flu). I imagine any virus is contained when these are less and less vulnerable hosts left to successfully infect. Given the question about European safety protocols, generally speaking, many (Western) European countries have been much more aggressive and hands-on in trying to contain localized spread than most places in the US (E.g. Germany locked down a city where there was spread in a meat packing plant, same with Italy). It's safe to assume there will be localized spreads popping up somewhere....until there aren't. Those basic safety protocols don't need to be re-invented or retooled - they've worked in every epidemic so why pretend we'll never see them again? I'm not talking about lockdowns - those are last resort scenarios no one wants to see - but the basic tools we've practiced over the past year (hand washing, masking, social distancing).

What is the goal of the effort against COVID?

• Prevent avoidable deaths and severe illness (those that wouldn't occur absent of the disease), particularly to the most vulnerable members of a population
• Ensure acceptable function of "essential" services in a society (life saving labor force, hospitals, food production and distribution, and other services deemed necessary - that includes continuity of government at the highest levels, defense of the nation, etc.)
• Restore sense of predictbility and confidence needed to boost the economy (beating back COVID and economic stability/ confidence are intertwined - even Wall Street Journal would agree)

Bogiesan - that was terrific, pant splitting humor - thanks for the laughs!

And confidence is a great thing to point out. That has been a disaster
since day one and continues to be a losing battle.

I don't mean that in a traditional layman sense, but in the sense that people who are fearful or feel like life is uncertain, their job is insecure, their plans are up in the air, etc. are not likely to spend, invest, etc. Businesses also get in that mode, they lay off people....and then you get a major economic contraction even though many (relatively wealthy) people have no outlet to spend their saved funds. As soon as vaccinations went up and there was money pumped into the economy like an Epi Pen, you can see the changes in outlook.

Regarding herd immunity, from NY Times' Apoorva Mandavilli:

But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever. Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html

David Brooks mentions Mandavilli in his column: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/opinion/herd-immunity-us.html

Could today’s version of America have been able to win World War II? It hardly seems possible. ... This week my Times colleague Apoorva Mandavilli reported that experts now believe that America will not achieve herd immunity anytime soon. Instead of being largely beaten, this disease could linger, as a more manageable threat, for generations. A major reason is that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is reluctant to get vaccinated. We’re not asking you to storm the beaches of Iwo Jima; we’re asking you to walk into a damn CVS.

To address the original question, it all goes back to infection rates. Regardless of "herd immunity", Vaccination rates, whatever you want to look at, if the infection rate is at a tolerable level for politicians and hospitalization rates are manageable, then measures will continue to ebb away. Masks will likely stick around for quite a long time (people are used to them, not too invasive), social distancing will decrease, something like reduced capacities, as an economic topic, will probably be the first to go (Remember that middle airline seat?)

Basically, by mid summer. 2021...not 2022, there will be a major effort to attempt as normal a life as possible, both in the US and in "Touristed" Europe. If infection rates stay low, fine, if things resurge, then renewed measures. In the end, it is a political decision more than a medical decision.

"A major reason is that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is reluctant to get vaccinated. We’re not asking you to storm the beaches of Iwo Jima; we’re asking you to walk into a damn CVS."

Best dang post in the history of the RS Forum.

For the record, I am pro-vac and all my family and I have ours, but my reluctance to get this vaccine is two fold: one, I want to see what the long-term side effects. Two, it's become too politicized. I've seen too many politicians arbitrarily following "science" (i.e. allowing strip clubs, marijuana dispensaries and Walmarts to be open, but not the little mom-and-pop bookstore or restaurant, and even then not past a certain hour as if the virus changes past 10pm). I've seen many places suddenly loosen restrictions once the governor/Supreme Leader is embroiled in a scandal and suddenly needs the votes.

Why is protecting our neighbor only limited to the vaccine? I'm all for taking care of one another, but if we're going by death counts, I think car accidents and obesity are quite deadly as well. Ready to give up your car and stop going to fast food restaurants to force them out of business?

I think we should stop "forcing" people into getting vacs (What happened to 'my body my choice?') and instead follow Rick's advice of learning to listen to our fellow brethren and having civil discussion so we can see where the viewpoints come from, rather than labeling, judging, condemning, or dividing, even if we disagree.

Because without herd immunity this never ends.... It is some much more than about "you" (as in reference to anyone not getting the vaccine). The longer this virus lives the more variants that develop and that may end any chance of herd immunity. Choice should be simple: get vaccinated or get shipped off to a tent city in the middle of the Arizona desert (away from society). The only ones making it political are those not getting vaccinated.

I disagree that the ones not getting vaccinated are the "only" ones making political. You can easily find plenty of evidence for that. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, and I know that both sides, to be fair, have made it political in their own ways. This has been political from the early days. And shipping to tent cities seems kind of harsh, especially for those who may have legit health reasons for not getting a vaccine. I mean, tent cities, separate entrances for various groups... I don't like where this is headed.

Emma,

I know about driving exams and licenses (personally I think a frequent review would be beneficial, as it's amazing at how many people don't know what a stop sign means).

I've heard of similar things to the "fat tax" (some cities in the States call it a 'sugar tax,' on sodas and such). I am curious, though, how has the long-term result of the 'fat tax' been in those countries? Have obesity rates decreased? (I do agree that it's sad at how much American fast food has expanded so rapidly. It sickens me to see the golden arches across the street from a wonder of the world).

And I fully agree, yes, people need to be prepared for the consequences. I'm not for or against a person's choice in this matter. And yes, it's not 'forced,' in that sense, but the more businesses or government limit choices for those not vaccinated, in a sense, that's what they're trying to get one to do.

True. I've also heard from those against the vaccine that since everyone else is getting vaccinated, they feel safer too.
I've also heard from some who want to see more long-term effects (i.e. those pregnant or planning on becoming pregnant).

Just what I've heard. I try to hear out both sides.

Can we all try and keep this to the subject that was started by the OP?

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