Concerns about fuel rationing and travel to Italy, where to find out more info

Hi Nick, I can understand your worry, but there is no answer to that question. Nobody quite knows what will happen. And it's not that something different will happen for tourists with booked flights and a rental car if there is a shortage. I live in Italy and at the moment there is no lack of fuel. Fuel prices have been up and down because of government intervention so some low-price stations have had supply problems but generally it is not an issue at present. It's a question of wait and see. I'll keep you updated on this thread.

Fuel shortages are a concern shared by people in the UK too. There have already been some issues with obtaining petrol and diesel in some areas and the price has risen steeply.

I have a road trip planned for next week and it’s definitely something I’m thinking about as a potential issue but at the moment it doesn’t seem to be so bad that I won’t go.

Thank you both. I'll be checking back here. Just to reiterate and expand on my initial question, I'm not expecting anyone to have a clear crystal ball about this but more interested in finding a source of information that I can monitor. I've looked briefly at Reddit (r/europe) but that is too general at this point. I don't mind paying more for fuel, my main concern is weighing supporting the tourist industry (we'll be staying at an agriturismo recommended by Rick) and being part of the problem of people in Italy getting access to fuel they need for everyday life.

I had not even considered this- we will be driving a lot, from Florence down to Puglia, flying out from Brindisi 3 weeks later- I have no idea what I will do if we can't get gas. We will be in Italy in 5 weeks. Wonder if travel insurance will cover another night hotel because I can't get to my paid for accommodation in the next town, my guess is- not covered. If we can't get fuel on the day we drive from Orvieto to Matera that might be an issue as I assume we will have to fill up on the way down.

Perhaps it’s time to provide some accurate information.
Italy has a 90-day emergency oil reserve. Furthermore, Italy is one of the few countries in Western Europe with multiple oil fields both onshore and offshore. In addition to its own production, Italy has a substantial refining capacity across 13 refineries.

I can reassure everyone that Italy will certainly not be faced with empty petrol stations in April or May, though that does not mean prices cannot rise significantly. Rising prices also have the ‘advantage’ of bringing about automatic savings (fewer flights, speed limits on motorways, working from home, etc.), which will delay shortages even further.

Hi

I would be more concerned about aviation fuel (jet fuel). I am pretty sure the last shipment is coming to mainland Europe in the next 10 days. I could see this leading to increased flight costs/ cancellation of some flights. Just a personal opinion and not at all based on anything concrete.

That's my concern.... flying back home May 19. I am supposed to leave April 16. Then.... will the trains run? Will there be enough natural gas for restaurants to cook with for the next months?

This is a helpful discussion, again, thank you for contributing. It is my understanding that Europe also gets oil from the African continent and I appreciated the remark regarding domestic production. Given that it will take a while to deplete reserves, I agree, that in the short term which I was mostly asking in my question, there probably won't be gas stations out of fuel. I am also accustomed to using public transit and a bike and our family will adapt. A friend who grew up in Italy and will be traveling there in April recommended checking in on https://www.ansa.it/english/ for news. He also mentioned that Slovenia has declared a state of emergency related to impacts of oil delivery but he has not seen anything from Italy. The trip is still a "go" for us but we are expecting to have to make some major modifications to our trip unless we are very lucky.

hey hey soft.world1806
many concerns about the fuel/oil/petrol issues. you're getting answers from both sides.
another concern when renting cars in italy is obtaining and IDP (aaa.com/IDP) before leaving states. it is mandatory in italy. some rental agencies may ask for it some may not, it's if the "cops" stop you for any given reason they will ask, if you don't have it's a big $$ fine (409E) on the spot or/and take car back. read all the rules, laws, ZTL zones, signage. you will need to use both DL & IDP when driving. hoping all works out with your family and having a great holiday
aloha

Thank you princess pupule, we have our IDP extra license. Looking forward to our trip. This is the third time we'll attempt to travel to this region--the other two we had to postpone the trip!

https://www.worldometers.info/oil/italy-oil/

Italy IMPORTS 90% of the oil it consumes. ( 2024)

In 2020 it imported 97%

EDIT

Combined from my prior post

https://www.statista.com/statistics/789168/volume-of-crude-oil-imported-by-country-of-origin-in-italy/

Given where Italy's oil comes from I suspect the price increases will depress demand enough to preclude rationing

@Joe32F

You forgot to mention the most interesting fact : "Italy has proven reserves equivalent to 1.3 times its annual consumption levels (based on 2024 data). This means that, without imports, there would be about 1 years of oil left (at 2024 consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves)."

What’s more, import figures on their own are meaningless. You need to look at where the imports come from (and have a basic understanding of the world map).
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (or the Strait of Trump) and a possible future blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would have very little impact on Italy. Their imported oil comes mainly from Libya (Mediterranean Sea) and Azerbaijan, where a pipeline through Turkey carries the oil to that same Mediterranean Sea... and the third supplier, the USA, also follows a (for the time being) unblocked route.

Italy is suffering more from its failure to qualify for the World Cup yet again than from its oil supply ;-)

All of the discussion here focuses on trying to get a clearer view into the crystal ball of the future. As tempting as that is, my original question was centered on finding sources of information to assess the situation as it develops. I mentioned ansa.it/english as a source and today I saw a reference to a piece from Reuters about United Airlines announcing it will cancel 5% of it's flights due to increased cost of jet fuel. I did not view that article yet but did sign up for access to Reuters' website and found an announcement1 that Ryan Air will have to cancel some flights "if there is a ​risk to the ​supply of jet fuel in ⁠June, July or ​August". So, I have found two good sources of information and although they aren't referring to gas at the pump, I imagine that those sources will probably serve to keep me informed on potential logistical impacts until I depart later next week. Good luck everyone!

Thank you all for your posts about this. My husband and I have the same worry and this eases our minds (somewhat). We leave April 25 for a trip to explore the Umbrian countryside and have been concerned about gas shortages. Hopefully, all of us traveling soon will have a wonderful trip and plenty of gas!

I think you leave tomorrow.
I don't think there will be open news beyond what you know.
But you've extrapolated well.

You'll probably be there when (possible/probable) shortages hit.

I wonder if sites like FlightAware can tell us about flight cancellations.

Perhaps get the embassy and consulate info if you need support?