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Will you be denied bringing your luggage?

I came across this article the other day which I found interesting about people being bumped from flights due to the heat. https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/climate-change-airplane-takeoff-scn/index.html
The hotter it gets, the lighter a plane needs to be to take off and the problem is only going to get worse. From the article;

A study from Columbia University predicts that by 2050, a typical
narrow body aircraft like the Boeing 737 will incur increased weight
restrictions by anything from 50% to 200% during the summer months at
four major US airports: La Guardia, Reagan National Airport, Denver
International and Sky Harbor.

And apparently the weight restriction may be more than people. On an Italian Travel Facebook site this morning an American posted that they tried to check bags for the flight home and were denied because the plane had reached its weight limit and at the moment they hadn't been advised of a solution for the luggage. Very little other information was included by the poster and I can't vouch for the post's validity but it does make me start to wonder if we're going to see further luggage restrictions such as reduced weight per person.

Who has a crystal ball?...don't pack it though.

Posted by
5429 posts

Quoted from the end of the article: "But, says Williams, this will remain a niche problem for the near future, at least: “People being bumped off aircraft because it’s too hot is rare and will remain rare. Most planes are never at their maximum takeoff weight, so this will happen in marginal cases – mostly airports with short runways, at high altitude, and in the summer,” he says."

IOW, not something I'm going to lose sleep over.

Posted by
7799 posts

In the future, will they weigh us on a scale, and the lighter people get to board, first? Yikes! Better get my trips completed in the next few years! ; )

Posted by
20175 posts

So, flying out of Houston in 104F not a problem and happening every day, but flying out of Washington at 102F is a broblem 27 years from now? Columbia researcher smoking something.

Posted by
3114 posts

I had a professor who smoked weed with us on occasion. Not like the guy in Animal House.

The way things are going airlines might need to weigh passengers. I mean, just look around.

Posted by
11874 posts

So, flying out of Houston in 104F not a problem and happening every day, but flying out of Washington at 102F is a problem 27 years from now? Columbia researcher smoking something

Runway lengths at IAH are: 12000 // 10000 // 10000 //9400 and 9000 feet

Reagan runways-- 7100// 5200 and 5000 feet

So yes, 'not a problem' at IAH, but is 'a problem' at DCA.

Physics may provide relief for the dense pack of economy seats.

Posted by
8319 posts

I remember at MEM when Federal Express planes would be at the very end of 8900' runways before they'd lift off. The pilots would compute their loads, fuel, temperature and humidity in order to know whether they could make it. Fortunately a 4th runway was built and the other three runways were lengthened a little.

If it gets bad at some airports, they'll just take on fewer passengers.

Virtually all major airlines are in the process of purchasing newer generation aircraft that have strong engines and are lighter in weight. That should solve some Summer travel woes.

But it would be nice if the FAA could do more to replace the thousands of air traffic controllers they're short of. So many of the 1991 hires to replace the fired striking air traffic controllers have retired and not been replaced.

Posted by
71 posts

Doesn’t get hot enough at DEN and they have very long runways. La Guardia and Reagan at sea level? Not so sure. Sky Harbor, they cancel flights from time to time mid summer heat waves. Been canceled for heat before. Why I was there in the summer was certainly questionable.

Our flight out of PSP week before last was cancelled due to extreme heat given the type of aircraft we were on. Embraer 175. It was 117 at 2:30pm and expected to rise another degree or two. We closed doors and sat there for 20 minutes due to an ATC gate hold, fortunately the AC was stellar and FA’s were handing out cups of water. Thank you United! False start on asking 18 passengers to deplane for weight reduction, folks jumping up to get in line ….. then pilot came on and said sorry no go, too hot for safety limits and we deplaned 15 minutes later. I saw two 737’s take off as they are built for more challenging conditions.

Fortunately made the best of it. Hertz comped me a car ( just returned one an hour prior), used points for a hotel, had a great meal and got out first class on the o’dark ‘30 flight next morning. United came thru x2.

Posted by
2267 posts

Doesn’t get hot enough at DEN and they have very long runways

DEN's runways are long because of the higher altitude there, which has a similar effect as heat on take-off performance. Temperatures need only be higher than foreseen in the airport's design era to make the field too "hot & high".

One of the problems these unheard-of temperatures present to air travel is that planes, when first designed and certified, have published data against which to perform. (X degrees at Y barometric altitude with Z weight = N feet of runway required). Airplane manufacturers only created that data up to a certain temperature range, once considered an unlikely extreme. If the plane only has performance data up to 118°, but temps are at 119°, there's no way to safely, legally, run those calculations.

Posted by
8965 posts

Air density matters. There was a story on NPR the other day about this. As mentioned, cancelled flights have happened in Phoenix several times, and Las Vegas as I recall. And reported that it's an issue in hotter Mideastern countries as well. So it's not just an theoretical threat but a real issue that has to be considered. Moving flights to cooler times of day was one obvious way of dealing with it.

Posted by
2267 posts

Moving flights to cooler times of day was one obvious way of dealing with it.

Speaking of middle eastern countries... The busiest connection times for Emirates' mega-hub in Dubai are in the middle of the night. Like, 2am.

Posted by
2195 posts

In the early days of commercial aviation, British Airways would weigh passengers as they boarded. It was more about weight distribution than total weight. Military transports have loadmasters who calculate total weight and arrange cargo in a way to maintain proper center of gravity.

I was a commercial photographer back in the film days and frequently did aerial photography from small Cessnas. The difference in takeoff distance from winter to summer was significant.

Posted by
892 posts

PATCO was fired by Reagan in 1981, all of those replacement controllers are long gone, mandatory retirement (for FAA controllers) is 55.

And while PHX and LAS have space to expand, other airports, like MDW, don't. Even SW's 737s have issues there - the hardest landing I've experienced (literally we were thrown into our seatbelts) was there due to a meager 6250' runway on a hot day in May.

(ftr, former military controller here)

Posted by
10 posts

Let's keep our fingers crossed that they figure it all out, 'cause we all wanna pack more

Posted by
193 posts

Flying out of Denver very early on Labor Day about 9 years ago the airline was offering 18 passengers coupons for future flights to deplane and take a later flight that day in order to lighten the load. After accepting the offer, some reboarded and took their previously assigned seats saying that the airline would not guarantee their checked bags could be located in the cargo hold to be retagged for the later flight. We sat in the plane at the gate while the airline kept announcing throughout the cabin that they were still looking for volunteers. We could see luggage coming back out. The coupon amount for future flights kept increasing. We finally departed 3 hours later and missed our connecting flight in Milwaukee by just 10 minutes. We sat in Milwaukee for hours. The airline had rebooked us on the last flight from Milwaukee to Chicago.

Posted by
4582 posts

Let's keep our fingers crossed that they figure it all out, 'cause we
all wanna pack more

Here's hoping that more people want to check luggage in the future so there's more overhead space for me.

Posted by
51 posts

I'm dumbfounded by people wanting to take extreme amounts of luggage with them. It's not necessary to have a change of clothes for every day you're on a trip. Simply bring stuff that works together and do laundry loads in the hotel sink. Fast-drying fabrics and judicious use of towels to initiate the drying process makes this a relative breeze.

I just returned from a month-long bikepacking trip in Europe. My own bicycle was the only checked item - big in size but light in weight) - and the rest was in carry-on. I got by with a minimum of clothing as I had to pack it all on my bicycle. Wicking base layers, a short-sleeve button-down shirt, nicer hiking shorts, two sets of bike clothes, two pair of socks, a swimsuit, bike shoes and helmet, and Teva sandals worked a charm throughout France, Switzerland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Austria, and Germany. I did laundry in the sink every day - things would be dry by morning.

I also carried some simple bike tools, a laptop computer (!), various chargers for my gadgets, toiletries, and my favored sports drink mix as it wasn't available in Europe. Here's a pic of the bike in bikepacking mode.

I get that this is an outlier scenario but I was able to dress nicely enough to go to Michelin star restaurants and nicer attractions and still keep things to a minimum in terms of bulk.

Just my $0.02 - YMMV.