Waiting for that airfare sale…

The day of the week you travel certainly matters on Delta which is my airline of choice. Also with Delta, I understand they do system-wide updates on Saturdays so that is a terrible day to book.

In early January I had an opportunity to go to Paris this spring (based on a family member's surgery date). I started looking immediately for a fare and found one that was lower than I'd ever seen leaving from my end of the line airport. I grabbed it even though I did not actually want to pay for a plane ticket this month, hahaha.

Please just buy when you see a price you can live with. I never believe those blogs and advice columns. I don't think there are sales for every airport and there is no magic sweet spot.

Also, with Delta, if the price goes down they will let you rebook and issue you a refund or voucher depending on the class of ticket you buy. IF you mention the airlines you are looking at others here might be able to tell you if that will work on other carriers.

I have found in the past few years that there has been a short period around mid to later February where there were price drops for American Airlines to London (and they codeshare with BA). Can't guarantee it, and missed one last year while I had a reasonable price in mid-January - I would have saved me about $125/ticket when I didn't trust that that mid-February price break would reappear. When that price break happens it does not last more than a few days. It also held for other AA routes.

I am also a Delta flyer and have been waiting for prices to go down for our trip to Norway in June. Nothing much seems to be happening with fluctuations going up and down a mere $100-200 here and there and the price remains astronomical for our preferred comfort plus. The flight we want has only 50’ish booked seats so far. We’ve got Google flights telling us each price change but never any good one. We have never waited this long to pull the trigger. DH says he’ll buy next month no matter what but it’s frustrating for sure!

There may be some data behind that 4-to-6-months-before-travel timing, but it's too broad an average to be useful. You need separate statistics for your specific origin/destination, the month of departure and ticket class, at the very least. Even then, I wouldn't bank on it. Whether your home airport is a relatively competitive air-travel market is a major factor. If you are wedded to British Airways by preference or due to limited options, that reduces your chances of finding a good deal. These days it seems everyone is looking for something better than a standard coach-class ticket, so there are a lot of people chasing premium tickets.

I started traveling to Europe 55 years ago. There are always airfare sales being advertised, though in the old days you had to watch for newspaper ads. I have never, not once, snagged a good fare after hearing about a sale. The sales always had restrictions (most often date restrictions) that didn't match my travel plans. What has worked for me is just what you are doing--tracking fares for a decent period so I know more or less what is normal. Doing that doesn't guarantee a bargain; there may not be any real bargains (especially in June). It does reasonably assure that you'll spot a price dip if one occurs and be aware when the current price is significantly higher than it has been.

Rather than relying solely on website alerts, I'd also check manually at least once a day. Checking more frequently might pay off; you just don't know when an airline may adjust its prices, and there may not be many tickets available at a newly announced price. A few years ago I watched a coach ticket into Munich and back from London bounce repeatedly between $800+ and $1300+. It was changing at least every few days approximately 3 months before I planned to depart. My home airport is a relatively competitive one, with lots of airlines offering transatlantic flights, which may lead to fare volatility.

I assume you're looking at a multicity ticket into Rome and back from Paris, correct? What is your home airport?

The BA sale has been and gone - ended on Tuesday

Both prices and seat selection are my priority; I like low price but I also like bulkhead seat. So I tend to book very early to secure my favorite seat. For this reason I usually book with a US airline (in my case Delta) as most US airlines let you cancel non-refundable ticket and receive eCredit; which you can use it to rebook when prices drop later. Also US airlines only have size rule for carry-on bag but no weight limit. On the other hand European airlines don't have these same leniencies.

The only down side is you might end up with unused eCredit after you rebook for the cheaper airfare. Also if you book with a US airline and your itinerary consists of codeshare flights; it could potentially complicate rebooking during delay or cancellation, and could sometimes cause seat selection issues. Airline credit card discount for award ticket typically also does not apply to itinerary that contains codeshare flight.

I don’t think anyone can tell you the best time. IMO it all depends on how quickly the flights are filling. The last couple of years we have made reservations for our flights for summer travel between Thanksgiving and Christmas. For travel in May to Glasgow and back from Berlin, our PE flights on BA were $1800 something. I just checked and the flight is now $2564.

Just a note - we like to say we like to fly premium economy. We are going to Naples end of April. We went to book after Christmas and there were no PE seats left. Economy was our only choice price wise. This is on Delta.
Our second flight, returning from Athens the PE seats are again sold out.
So, if you see a decent flight with your choice of seats grab it.

We are also Delta flyers. Flying to Paris in July. I watch for days and months and got concerned when saying only 5 seats left in Dec. We needed each one of those! So had to pull the trigger. Only saw the $100 plus give or take. Paying more for economy than recent trips. High season….more people traveling!? .

There is no magic time to book.

Luv2Travel, how do you know there are only 50 seats booked on your preferred flight?

how do you know there are only 50 seats booked on your preferred flight?

Delta website let you display the seat map, which shows what seats are currently selected or unavailable, without having to go through the booking process. Simply search the itinerary and click 'SELECT SEATS'. You can also find these information on http://expertflyer.com website; it does require you create a free user account.

"Delta website let you display the seat map, which shows what seats are currently selected or unavailable,"

Although currently on my flights ALL the Delta One seats are "X'd" out. They are not full as those are shown (and it's just a handful)...just inaccessible.

Yes. I can do the same with AA and other airlines.

However, that doesn't mean that X seats are available for purchase. Many passengers, especially those traveling basic economy, will not have selected their seats yet.

I’m thinking Comfort plus and Premium select travelers have picked their seats and there are plenty still open for our preferred flight.

Those seats that are "X'd" out or blocked, quote from Google search:
'airlines use them for operational needs, including accommodating passengers with disabilities, families, crew members, or to manage last-minute, full-fare sales, often releasing them shortly before departure. They are sometimes reserved for elite status holders to ensure better seats are available'

Thanks for that information mindfulness...but out of 29 seats in this configuration, 7 are showing "booked" and 22 are "X'd" out. I think their "operational" needs are just to see if anyone will buy those seats before they allow them to be upgradable for a price or miles. Saving a few seats for those with disabilities or crew sleep or crew deadheading (yes, coming home in October the guy behind me in Delta One was a FA at the Purser level) would not bother me in the least. I'll be patient and check every day, though!

Unfortunately there's simply no way to know what prices will do, nor if "conventional" wisdom will work in your favor. Assuming that you are flying to Rome and home from Paris, I have found that fare alerts on Google aren't quite as quick or reliable when you have a multi city (open jaw) ticket. I don't know if that's a glitch or just me but as acraven suggested you should check manually every couple days. You also might track flight prices for bigger hubs than Phoenix and be able to piece a trip together that way (but there are drawbacks to that approach, too). And if you do get an email that a fare has gone down, do not wait more than a couple hours to book it, they will disappear that fast (I speak from experience).

June is prime vacation travel time all 'round the world. You will very likely not get a screaming deal unless you wait until the very last moment, which I don't recommend when you have a tour to catch. As noted some airlines like Delta will allow price adjustments if you book and the price goes down, but it's in the form of an airline credit that has an expiration date on it (for Delta it is one year from the date you make the price adjustment).

My flight research said the best prices are usually 4-6 months before travel.

Just be careful of focusing on these sort of conventional wisdom rules. There are too many variables, and while you're blindly following the rules the best prices passed on by. I'm a United flyer and I tend to purchase multi-city tickets. I've bought tickets at 5 months out and at 10 months out. Maybe there is some truth to the belief that there are better and cheaper days to travel on, and I'd generally agree and say it's middle of the week rather than weekends. Looking back at my last 9 ticket purchases, 4 were for travel on Wednesday, 3 on Sunday and 2 on Tuesday.

With United, I'll get future flight credits if I cancel or change a ticket because the price has gone down. I know I'll travel again and I'll apply those credits to a future ticket purchase. It does take a lot of the angst out of pricing - not that I am buying with angst, it just adds an element of flexibility. I've gotten comfortable following a few routes and how the prices fluctuate, and whether true or not I'll tell myself I have a feel for the going price and it let's me believe I can recognize the big dip in price - and a price I'm more than happy with. It seems to work, every time I've purchased the ticket price only goes up from there.

This all works for me in my own little world

The flight we want has only 50’ish booked seats so far.

the flight you want has 50ish seats selected. There is often no correlation between the tickets sold and seats selected. Not everyone selects a seat at booking. Additionally airlines are selling more “basic” seats that don’t allow seat selection

I see a lot of “book now and get a credit advice. Often those basic fares have restrictions on that so check before you book.

for Delta it is one year from the date you make the price adjustment).

Actually it’s one year from the original purchase date. Sometimes the computer screws up and is generous but don’t count on it

It seems I must be different from most folks on here, but to me, it's not worth my time and angst to track fares and worry about when to jump. My guess is doing that is about a 50/50 prospect, the same as just buying when the price is what your're willing to pay, or at any random time. So when I know what dates I need, I do a search, and unless the price is unacceptable, I buy.

I'd say unless you're confident that prices will come down, don't wait for them to.

A lot of airlines are starting to introduce dynamic pricing, which adds a whole new wrinkle. I agree with the others. If you see a price you can live with, book it, because prices do tend to increase the closer you get to your dates.

Airlines have been using dynamic pricing since the 1980s.

As general rule, I try to buy my flights at least 90 to 100 days before departure. In my limited experience, prices only go up from there as supply decreases. I noticed that at 60 days before departure, the prices will jump significantly. And about 30 days before departure, availability may become very limited or even sold out for popular destinations.

High season airline tickets, e.g. June to August for Europe, will always cost a lot more. And again, everything costs more during high season. If I'm going to fret over the cost of airfare, I might as well change the dates of my visit.

Airfare is only one expense of a trip. Where I can really save some money is by booking or reserving cancelable accommodations as early as possible. I find hotel prices continue to increase as I get closer to the expected check-in date. Locking in on non-refundable reservations could save me more money, but I prefer the flexibility of cancellation.