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Tracking airline fares

I'm still fairly new to this tracking airfare thing. So we need to fly Delta from Anchorage to Seville (ANC-SVQ) on February 18, 2025. I checked the Delta site on my first day and the fare was $1,499 with a stop in Seattle and CDG. Checked the NEXT day and the fare was $3,499 for the same flight. Checked again the flight was $2,314!!!! So then, I checked the fare today eliminating Anchorage and starting in Seattle (we have done this before starting in Seattle and using AS miles to get there) and the fare is $1,677. I know airfares don't make sense, but this boggles me. Going to keep tracking. I'm just wondering what a good fare would be. I'm hoping for around $1,000 in economy Main.

Posted by
4742 posts

Welcome to the wacky world of airfares. There are entire server farms working 24/7 to ensure you never get the good deal you first saw.

Posted by
2598 posts

Tammy are you able to set a fare tracker in Google Flights? You can have it notify you for prices changes. Though it's not always super fast, it is another way to track flight pricing and it keeps a handy graph for you. My experience though is if you see a fare you like, buy it that moment, don't even wait a couple hours or it will be gone.

I do know many direct Seville flights are on low budget carriers, so you could potentially do a multi ticket route from some hub in Europe that is cheaper to fly to from Seattle (e.g. Madrid or Amsterdam). With appropriate layover allowed of course to get to your onward flight.

Posted by
11723 posts

Are you looking at a one way fare?

My 'not statistically valid' observation is one way fares seem to be more volatile (and higher) than the r/t or multi-city choices.

Posted by
896 posts

@CL's suggestion is a good idea, set specific criteria on Google Flights & they will ping you with price changes, sometimes they will even show a route not available on the airline website, (just happened on Google Flights for UA ) that is cheaper. And BTW, if you're using the Delta site, they're tracking your cookies and raising the flight prices as you keep checking, so best to use Google Flight, which according to my techie H, and my personal experience, doesn't result in moving prices around much, then when you find a price you like, you click on the link into Delta to check the DETAILS of the fare, sometimes it won't be what you're looking for... The Devil really is in the details!! OR of course you could use an incognito window each time you check Delta. And I would wait this one out, though nerve racking. Unless you find $1000, airline deals come out in the autumn for mid winter. Good luck!

Posted by
6285 posts

I've yet to get definitive proof that the Delta is watching me check flights. I try all kinds of combinations and times, and check fares quite frequently. I've even asked a friend, a computer analyst, at Delta and he said flights change for many reasons, none of which relate to how often a potential customer checks fares.

Posted by
5167 posts

If you are suspicous that Delta is tracking you (they are) while you track their fares, try making yourself unknown to them by clearing your cookies on your current computer and browser, using a different computer, using a different browser. If you are logged in to Delta when you are checking, then try logging in as someone else. Or try searching in "incognito" mode.

The algorithms for airline pricing are so complex, it does boggle the mind.

Posted by
577 posts

Oh the myth that Delta is tracking you and airfares will only go up. Yeah, that explains why I’ve got over $1000 and e-credits in my Delta account because airfares only go up so I adjusted and got a credit? Oh wait I’m getting credits.

Well, that explains why I just found a business class fare on a route. I’ve been checking daily for the last month for $1000 less than it has been. Oh no, it doesn’t- air only goes up if you check daily.

of course Google flights and those subscriptions services. They don’t actually check airfares so that’s how they see them going down. They just know they’re going down without checking because if they only go up.

Yeah, I realize this is a very popular urban myth but it’s not really supported by any facts. It’s only supported by people who write blog post talking about how this is how the airlines do it

https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-tips/clearing-search-history-affect-flight-prices

https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/tips/cheap-flights-booking-myths-travel/

Posted by
1034 posts

so best to use Google Flight, which according to my techie H, and my personal experience, doesn't result in moving prices around much

Have you ever known Google/Alphabet to pass up an opportunity to make a buck? Do you believe that Google Flights is absolutely free?

In addition to advertising revenue, you can bet that they are compiling search history on routes as well as fare tracking settings and selling that info to the airlines, as they often have demographic data to associate with the inquiry. Keep in mind that any query regarding an airfare eventually hits the airline's servers, as they maintain the published fares, which do adjust dynamically based on demand, or lack thereof.

To the extent that Google can cache fares and not go back to the airline on each inquiry, the airline may not be aware at that point - but your friends at Google will keep track for the airline.

Posted by
19511 posts

Forget all the insanity. Set up Google flights to track a few flights. They will tell you the range to expect and when a flight hits the sweet spot, check it with the airline and the class you want. Google will also send you other cheaper flights when they pop up. Do this for a few months. Get a feeling for the median price, then grab it when it cones up.

I've been tracking a few flights for S & Grins. Google will give you a chart of the price changes. Looks like a freaking yoyo developed the chart.

Posted by
6285 posts

Out of curiosity, have you priced out Anchorage to Madrid and Seattle to Madrid?

Posted by
3474 posts

Thank you all for your replies, the flight is round trip and we do not want to go to Madrid first. I have set up google flight alerts.

Posted by
577 posts

I’ve never had Google only send me alerts for specific flights. I’ll select the route I want and it sends me alerts for that route.

Posted by
4742 posts

And for the ultimate and daydreaming, don't forget the old trick of putting the word Europe as your destination in Google flights instead of a specific city. You can then add direct flights and your class of service and you just might be surprised ...