"Ryanair’s O’Leary warns European airlines could fail if jet fuel price doesn’t fall"

So the low-cost carrier Ryanair is the most insulated? Does that mean that they could’ve been charging even less all this time, while stockpiling fuel somewhere? Or are their planes the most fuel efficient, by far?

In Ireland, you don’t want a “hedged” car, because if you’ve hit a hedge, you’ve also likely hit the stone wall immediately behind the hedge. A “hedged” airline sounds challenged. O’ Leary is pretty sure of his future success.

Basic info on airlines and fuel hedging

https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/fuel-hedging-which-airlines-do-it-and-why/

ryanair may not be as susceptible to price fluctuations as some other airlines, but if the boat carrying the stuff can't get to where it's needed it really doesn't matter what the price is. If they can get the fuel, ( at pre-blockade prices) then they have an advantage over airlines that are having to pay the 'going rate' ( higher) rate

"Does that mean that they could’ve been charging even less all this time" some would say yes....https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3exel4p1yqo

the airlines aren't actualy stockpiling fuel, others do that. The airlines, and other transport operators, simply arrange fixed rate contracts for the seasons ahead. And the distributers they use have done the same. Somewhere down the chain somone is taking a hit, but that's probably the producer who can average things out over years. I can remember the banking crash of 2008, oil prices dropped at that time but the UK company I worked for had hedged it's fuel prices on the Rotterdam oil market before the sudden crash - so passenger numbers fell whilst we were paying over the odds for diesel!!!

Some are well insured with hedges for at least the first half of year. Others not as well.

.AirlineFY 2026 Hedge % Protection Type Estimated Impact

Ryanair ~80% Financial Contracts Low - Locked in at ~$67/bbl.

easyJet ~70% Financial Contracts Contained - Heavy protection through
H1 2026.

Lufthansa ~77% Financial Contracts Moderate - High volume but exposed
to "crack spread".

Delta Air Lines 0% Refinery Ownership Moderate - Owns the Trainer
refinery; saves ~$300M/year but remains exposed to crude oil spikes.

United Airlines 0% NoneSevere - No financial hedges; expects $11B in
additional annual fuel costs.

American Airlines 0% NoneSevere - No financial hedges; fuel bill
expected to rise by $4B this year.Wizz Air55%Financial ContractsSevere
- Lowest protection among major EU budget

UAE says its tanker in Hormuz strait has been hit, with no injuries
reported published at 07:43 07:43 BREAKING The United Arab Emirates
says a tanker affiliated with Adnoc, its state-owned oil company, has
been hit in the Strait of Hormuz. No one has been injured, the
country's foreign ministry says in a statement, adding:

BBC just now.

Longer days, warmer destinations — your early summer escape is closer
than you think. Book today and enjoy up to 15% off selected flights.

WIZZAIR, just now.

20% off flights — grab it while you can and book your next trip today.
City break? Beach escape? Avoiding responsibilities? We’ve got you!
Your future self is already packing.

RYANAIR just now.

They arent showing the panic. Everything is the speculation of those that dont begin to understand tge forces at work or the industry. The only actual is the ticket cost and if the plane takes off. So far ticket prices remain good to very good and canceled flights do exist but not a very large percentage.

You cant replace a 1000 page financial pro forma with a six word statement about gas price hedging and think anything useful has been provided. There are airlines where flying planes is half their income is one example of why. Amateurs creating panic might do more to hurt the industry than gas prices ... dont know.

"Amateurs creating panic might do more to hurt the industry than gas prices ... dont know."

Hmm. If I didn't know better, I think you might be ignoring my professional status! I have a certificate from the institute of professionals to prove it!

I posted the Ryanair bit because the travelers ought to be aware there are potentially some tricky waters (to mix metaphors) to negotiate for airlines that may cause some turbulence (ah, back to the air at least.) I hope the business in the strait gets resolved quickly and this is all worry over nothing.

I posted the BBC bit later to show that clear air still isn't here yet.

Happy travels!

They arent showing the panic

Are you saying that you'd expect to see the panic on their website where they're selling flights? Are you suggesting that the fact that their websites are still up and trading indicate that everything is ok? That sounds a bit of an amateurish logical conclusion to draw in the circumstances.

I suggest you read it all, quote it all, and you decide what you think I meant.

There are few guide books that can rival Rick Steves. One that can is this:

In many of the more relaxed civilizations on the Outer Eastern Rim of
the Galaxy, the Hitchhiker's Guide has already supplanted the great
Encyclopaedia Galactica as the standard repository of all knowledge
and wisdom, for though it has many omissions and contains much that is
apocryphal, or at least wildly inaccurate, it scores over the older,
more pedestrian work in two important respects.

>

First, it is slightly cheaper; and secondly it has the words DON'T
PANIC inscribed in large friendly letters on its cover.

I don't think talking about it is panic.

Maybe you're seeing it elsewhere but I haven't come across any panic in this thread. I just thought posting those quotes from the websites proved nothing. It seemed to be a reaction to David posting news which contributes to the situation becoming even more protracted. Maybe the two weren't linked.

I'm not sure who the amateurs you refer to are. Are they our fellow forum contributors here in the thread, including the OP? People you have seen elsewhere on the internet?

My amateurish guess is that the procurement professionals in the airline industry must be sweating bullets right now, but I doubt they're going to let on to you or I.

Michael O' Leary is an absolute nutjob btw. Everything he says I take tend to take with a big pinch of salt because he's come away with some absolute belters over the years. It's in his best interest to tell everyone it's fine over in Dublin at Ryanair, no matter what the actual situation is.

The airlines will definitely fail if people stop buying tickets. On that basis it’s misguided to think they would stop advertising or that they would suggest to potential customers that there may be difficult times ahead.

I would not take the fact that they are continuing their upbeat advertising to prove anything at all.

Good points Gerry!

Don't forget your towel! (hitchhiker's guide again)

Happy travels!

It's a good bit of Michael O' Leary-style marketing if anything. Making a point of telling everyone his competitors are going to the wall, but Ryanair will be fine. Pretty savvy use of a crisis (don't call it a crisis) situation to further his own ends.

Thanks for the reminder, David, you hoopy frood.

Hoopy frood? What's next? Vogon poetry ?!

Bad news! Apparently my certificate from the Institute of Professionals is expired and hence I will be admonished from quoting 6 day old CNBC pieces for publicity hound- Ryanair- CEOs!

Which reminds, my boycott of Ryanair is back on! I'm gonna learn French if it kills me!

Happy travels.

P.S. DON'T PANIC

Am I to believe that Air France will "fail," stop flying into CDG from SFO owing to that piece of so-called " logic?"

That sort of assertion tells me how much "they" know, or more accurately how little "they" know in regards to the subject of History and knowing "les français."

Will they fail? I hope not.

But I am reminded of an old joke:

A guy runs into sharp salesman who tells him to get in on the ground floor of new business: selling bedpans.

“These things are selling like hot cakes! Buy one from me for a dollar and you can sell it for two!”

“How many should I get then?”

“All of them. Use all your cash and mortgage your house too!’

A few months later when the fellow is appearing before the bankruptcy judge, the judge asked him “Can’t you pay your bills with something? Have you no assets?"

The man exclaimed! “Assets!! Assets! I have nothing but assets!”

Get it? It’s punny! Bed pan = asss-sset? Oh never mind....

Happy travels.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-jet-fuel-supply-crisis-iran-war-hormuz-risk-airline-industry/

‘Summer should be fine’ as Europe’s jet fuel fears ease Airlines and
governments are no longer concerned about airline disruption despite
war affecting oil supplies.

BRUSSELS — Europe is now considered unlikely to face a jet fuel supply
crisis and major flight disruptions in the coming weeks — a big change
from the dire warnings of just a few weeks ago.

The core reason for the shift is a hike in prices, which encouraged
refiners and traders to redirect fuel cargoes toward Europe, helping
offset lost Gulf supplies faster than policymakers initially expected.

However, there are still concerns about fuel supplies by the early
fall if the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran continues and oil shipments
through the Strait of Hormuz don't return to normal levels.

As Nicholas Grossman, U of I prof, said "Europe Solved Its Jet Fuel Shortage (For Now) With This One Weird Trick: Paying more!"

Also on the positive side, despite the higher input costs, ticket prices have not surged (at least not yet.) I don't have the quote handy, but I recall reading Ryanair's CFO saying something to effect that no summer price increases were in their plans.

Happy travels!

Ryanair believes its fuel hedging policy will shield the carrier from the immediate impact of the Middle East conflict — and insists that European operations are not currently facing a fuel shortage.
The airline says its “conservative” strategy — with 80% of its jet fuel for 2026-27 hedged at $668/t — will “insulate” its earnings.
IATA puts the European average price at around $1,300/t.
Ryanair says it expects fuel prices to “remain elevated…for some months”.
But it claims that Europe is still “relatively well-supplied” with jet fuel, having sourced “significant volumes” from regions including Norway, West Africa and the Americas.
https://www.flightglobal.com/archive/2026/05/hedging-largely-insulates-ryanair-from-fuel-price-volatility/

80% of Ryanair fuel is at $2.12 per gallon. Current going rate is $3.95ish per gallon.

Those airlines in competition with Ryanair who have to buy all their fuel at the going rate are at an obvious disadvantage

To address the frequently asked question of "how strict is ( insert airline name here) about baggage?", I think the answer in the current environment is 'very'.

To address the frequently asked question of "how strict is ( insert airline name here) about baggage?", I think the answer in the current environment is 'very'.

That's quite an astute observation I hadn't thought of Joe. Heavy planes cost a lot more to get flying.

Based on educated and informed predictions we ran out of Jet Fuel a week ago. It will be interesting to see if the carry on weight restrictions happen. No way to know, but I'll bet against it. Tourism in general is up in Europe, but i suspect not where it woukd be with out all of the fear marketing. Good side is its working against over tourism in some markets, bad side is some kids whose dad depends on tourism night go without.

The future is hard to predict-- especially when nobody can agree on the past much less the present.

The Ryanair CEO likes his chances and he seems to have won against Elon Musk so who am I to disagree? But then he wanted to charge me to pee, so, yeah, what? Keep on traveling!?

Seriously, this oil business may be a big issue for some carriers and some travelers. Or it may not. But seeing the Swiss alps is still priceless.

Happy travels!

If Ryan is wondering and betting that with an ever more acute oil crisis, more passengers will choose Ryan ? It's barking up the wrong tree. Since flying is a rejected option for me, then it's not possible for me to be a future Ryan customer, is it ?