Plane ticket price sudden price increase

I wouldn’t take it so personally. Have goggle flights track it for awhile. I have been tracking prices to Sicily and last week it went up $300! I was a bit horrified as that certainly was not the direction I was hoping for. But they now have gone back down to close to original price. Last year I bought tickets to Europe in January for May snd after ups and downs was same price I saw in October. I think airline tickets are just pretty volatile.

I have tried all of the systems and tips and hints an they haven't worked for me, but I might just be too dense to do it correctly.
I just watch starting about 90 days out and when I see a reasonable fare I buy it.
Your trip to OAX on a Friday then returning from MEX on a Friday in May is $249.00 on one of the Mexican discount airlines out of San Antonio.
Of course you have to get to and from San Antonio.

You are looking way too far in advance.

You see a price change of less than $40 on a return ticket and you jump to the conclusion that you are somehow being tracked and deliberately singled out for a price gouge? Seriously? Uh, no. Prices on most airlines have been volatile for months. The previous rules of thumb on booking timing have gone out the window. And you are still more than 6 months out. Relax and chill out. As others have recommended, sign up for price alerts on Google Flights, and then jump when you see a price you can live with. And then STOP LOOKING.

First, what is an acceptable price for you? An increase of $20 is nothing or even $39. It is like the stock market -- almost impossible to buy at the bottom. Just get close and be satisfied. You can scrub all your cookies and see if makes any difference but I doubt it. It not "scamy" behavior on the part of the airlines. It is a known fact the airline price change frequently because of AI on revenue loads.

Is the software from the airlines monitoring me and screwing me over on the price??

A few easy things to determine if your price point is being managed through cookies:

If you're tech savvy, clear your cookies in the browser you're using. If you're really good, clear only the cookies for that site so you don't screw up any other sites with which you'd like to maintain your internet relationship.

Try a different browser: Chrome, Firefox, etc. They each have their own cookies.

Try a different device.

These all assume you're not logged in to the airline site.

And if you want to see if it's really just you they're after, ask a friend to try the same search. I'm kidding - it's not you!

That is a trivial fare change. I have no idea whether $800-900 is a reasonable roundtrip fare from Detroit to Mexico, though.

Mike, If you want to get the lowest price for your ticket—it’s too early to buy a ticket for a flight in May 2023.
Here is why this is the case—- The airlines’ computer algorithms tell them that anyone buying a ticket this far in advance for a particular date 7 months from now must need to travel on that date. If that’s the case, the airlines figure the sky is the limit on what they can charge such a customer, They love it if they can sell you a ticket 7 months in advance because the customer has just given the airline an interest-free loan for 7 months. To get you to get off the fence and buy that ticket now, they will raise the price (temporarily) to motivate you to buy it “now before it goes up even more.” I have seen this happen on flights I was tracking time and time again. If you panic and buy- the airlines win. If you wait, you win. If they can stampede you into buying a ticket 7 months in advance, the airline—which then has your money— can change your flight routing from Detroit to Chicago , or add a couple layovers that add 5 hours to the journey. 60 days before you’re scheduled to fly. and the only thing you can do is back out and get a refund for the airline ticket, perhaps after you’ve finally gotten the vacation time request granted by your employer. or maybe made some non-refundable hotel reservations, or pre- paid for non-refundable tours, or maybe cajoled a friend or two to go with you on a vacation of your dreams. ( As incredible as it may sound, this happened to me and many other travelers during the past year). The airlines think you are locked in and they have you over a barrel and, at this point. you’ll just go along with whatever they throw at you because changing international airline flights and hotel reservations 30 to 60 days prior to travel can take many stressful hours on the phone and online and is just something most people are not going to want to do. Now, conventional wisdom in pre-Covid years was that international airline ticket prices would drop 55 to 65 days before the date of the flight. The reason is that the airlines make the most profit when they fill the plane with passengers and get the planes as close to 100% of capacity as possible. “Put butts in those seats no matter the discount” is the theme 60 days out. I have found it to absolutely be the case that the 55-65 days prior to the date of travel would be the sweet spot for buying international flight tickets. Adding to the likelihood of fares dropping after the calendar hits 2023, is that the worldwide economy is already slowing down and likely to go into a recession in the next few months, Europe Is already there, China is approaching a slowdown, and the US is likely to soon be in a slowdown as well, What that means is that oil prices will fall in 2023 as the worldwide economy slows and the demand for oil drops. Jet fuel is made from oil, so if there’s a recession hitting Europe, China and the US , with economic activity dropping, it follows that the price of oil will also drop with decreasing demand. That means cheaper jet fuel which means cheaper air fares likely becoming available and more competition among the airlines for passengers to fill their planes as there will be fewer passengers willing to spend money on travel during a downturn.
With all this in mind, I recommend signing up for fare alerts at www.GoogleFlights.com and www.Skyscanner.com. Keep an eye to buy your ticket from February into March 2023.

Oh the myth that the airline is monitoring you and prices only go up. Yeah it’s not true. I never clear cookies I never do anything and prices go up and down constantly. I booked the trip to next spring to Europe and the day after I booked at the price went down so I canceled it and re-booked it. It’s a myth conspiracy theorist would like it happen.

I actually use Google flights and they sent me an alert every time the flights I am watching change. And they go up and they go down. Just in the last couple of weeks I’ve gotten alerts for $ 600, followed a couple of days later by an increase to $800 a couple days later by decreases to $700 on the flights.

You are very focused on “being screwed”. Airline prices are volatile and there is no one magical time to buy tickets. When you see a price & itinerary you like, buy. I tend to wait until at least within 6 months.

...absolutely be the case that the 55-65 days prior to the date of travel would be the sweet spot for buying international flight tickets........ That is just opinion. There is no proof and if there was everyone would wait till then. It is mostly an urban myth. Years ago long time posters will remember an individual (who shall not be named) who pushed hard the idea that 60 days was a magic moment. And then another poster follow the advice and was severely screwed on the 60 day ticket price. She posted a scathing rant directed to the 60 day idea. Trouble with waiting to the 60 day mark is that if the magic price doesn't appear then you may be really screwed with few options.

Set a price that you think is fair, reasonable and buy when closed. And then move on.

Thinking outside the box, Skyscanner shows plenty of roundtrip tickets for flights taking 4.5 hours from Chicago to Mexico City for $220; Cancun for $397 You can check other cities at www.Skyscanner.com. A roundtrip Amtrak ticket from Detroit to Chicago is less than $100. With a night in a Chicago hotel, that could be the way to go.

Large Mexican population here so O'hare has more options including Mexican carriers Aeromexico, Volaris, and low cost Viva Aerobus.

What that means is that oil prices will fall in 2023 as the worldwide economy slows and the demand for oil drops.

That is true only if OPEC does not reduce production. That is an assumption I would not make.

As to the 3-5% price change, Mike saw, that is not a reason to panic. I have no idea what the 'regular' rate is for DTW-OAX, but skyscanner.com is showing from~ $680-900 for randomly chosen dates in May.

...absolutely be the case that the 55-65 days prior to the date of travel would be the sweet spot for buying international flight tickets........ That is just opinion. There is no proof and if there was everyone would wait till then. It is mostly an urban myth.

I have to agree with Frank. I've never noticed any pattern, rhyme or reason to pricing aside from typically steep prices near the target travel date. In fact I've been watching the Delta DTW-AMS options and prices for April 2023 for several months. Initially Delta was offering anachronistic A330's although they have been using A350's for most of those flights. The prices were on the higher side but when they again reverted to mostly A350's several weeks ago their price was quite reduced. The prices began to climb as the number of seats available began to fall. The prices were the most reasonable when the empty A350 flight was first offered. They offered me what I wanted at the right price 6 months out and it's much more now ($400 more per ticket in my case - refundable premium select ).

We like our own little 2-person bubble in the last row of premium select. The sweet spot for me is just before the 2-seat section of Delta's premium select on the A350's is sold out which can easily happen 5 to 6 months out. I have no desire to add more time flying or waiting at airports, unnecessary hotel stays and potential disruption to my trips. That's not savings to me. Time consuming, boring wastes of my time are really unappealing. The least time spent en route is the most conducive to my happiness. Amtrak trips between Detroit and Chicago have recently been nightmares.

Also, my nonstop flights out of Detroit have never been rerouted to another origin city. I've only seen minor time adjustments or a complete cancellation due to real weather events.

I am in the Los Angeles/San Diego market which is a very competitive market- particularly LA. Smaller cities with more limited markets such as Detroit, Cincinnati and the like are a different animal where what holds true in my experience may not be the case for others.

Also, the Department of Transportation was going to issue more consumer-friendly rules to hold the airlines more accountable for some of the more egregious practices we saw as travel ramped up this year. Hopefully by next year things will return more to the way it was before the pandemic.

If you try to research the "secret" of low fares in 4 places, you'll get 5 opinions.

Use the historical data in Google Flights to see what fares do on the route and what the "normal" fare is. Set a fare alert and watch it ping pong. When you see the number you think is "right" consider buying it, or pay a bit extra and get a refundable ticket. Depends on your comfort level.

And if you're convinced that people on the internets are that interested in your whereabouts, you should be using duckduckgo or incognito mode in Chrome and getting rid of your cookies every day (there are apps that make that easier).

Thanks for your imput.

In 2021, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport was the 18th busiest airport in the country.

I wouldn't start my flights at another airport, even if doing so would save me money, because of the time and effort of traveling to another airport and I only get ten paid days off work. The office I work at is closed on weekends.

I had assumed that I should buy tickets months in advance, not sooner than 4 months in advance. Maybe there is no agreement of when the best time to buy tickets is. When I went to Europe, I bought my tickets more than half a year in advance. When I went to Spain in March 2022 my plane tickets were just under $1,400 US dollars. I might have thought that if I wait until too close to the last minute, ticket prices will increase. It feels too risky to wait until 55 to 60 days in advance.

I need to figure what plane tickets for my supposed trip to Mexico are supposed to cost and then find the best combination of closest price to that price versus times the planes leave and arrive versus length of layovers versus. It is irrational or wrong for me to pick what I want to pay first, because of course I would guess wrong. It feels massively stupid or wrong to just laxly not care about buying tickets in a naive way and paying above what the tickets are supposed to cost.

Detroit is Delta's second largest hub. It has more international flights than many people realize. That might be why it was one of the 13 US airports which were allowed international arrivals during the pandemic. In the most recent years DTW has ranked 15 to 19 among the 30 "large hub" (FAA) US airports in terms of passenger volume. Los Angeles is much larger but Detroit actually has more volume than San Diego. I flew quite often to SAN when I was representing Ford at various IT groups and could sense the difference. Detroit has more than 3 times the volume of "medium hub" Cincinnati (rank was 49 for 2020) and they aren't really comparable markets. Fortunately for us DTW-Delta has all the nonstops to AMS, CDG, LHR, FCO and other continents that we need.

(Note: The Detroit region is a ten-county Combined Statistical Area (CSA) with a population of 5,325,219—making it the 12th-largest CSA in the United States as enumerated by the 2020 Census.)

Delta's monopoly at DTW does tend to make it's pricing there somewhat more predictable and perhaps sometimes higher than other markets. But DTW routinely ranks very high in customer satisfaction which also affects my reluctance to add other legs and airports to my travel unless truly necessary. I've experienced nearly every sizable US airport when I traveled for Ford. In personal travel I haven't found savings substantial enough to really warrant adding complications and length. As we age time becomes more precious and increases in importance as a measure.

I need to figure what plane tickets for my supposed trip to Mexico are
supposed to cost and then find the best combination of closest price
to that price versus times the planes leave and arrive versus length
of layovers versus. It is irrational or wrong for me to pick what I
want to pay first, because of course I would guess wrong. It feels
massively stupid or wrong to just laxly not care about buying tickets
in a naive way and paying above what the tickets are supposed to cost.

You seem massively hung up on this mythical idea that there is a certain price that flights are "supposed to cost". There is no such thing. Tickets on the same flight on the same airline can vary by hundreds of dollars depending on the time of day, day of the week or Month of year.. Tickets on direct flights will have a different price than those on flights that require connections. Some airlines just charge more than others ( legacy airlines vs discount airlines.). No one is suggesting you just blindly buy a ticket. Do your homework. You know your dates. So look at all the flights available on your dates. Pick ones that fit your needs. Then set up price alerts on them, as was suggested multiple times, and track them for a couple or more weeks until you get a feel for the pricing variations. THEN buy your ticket when you see a price you can live with. But forget about some pipe dream that there is a certain price that any flight is "supposed to have".

If I were to book a flight to Mexico for May, 2023, I would use skyscanner and compare the flight prices for each month from today: eg Nov, Dec, 2022... April, May, June, July 2023. This will give me a rough idea of the range of prices and possibly figure out how many days out to get a better price. Some times, I can wait and hit the lowest price. Even if I can't get the very lowest, I can always make myself feel better by checking the price the week or night before my departure. Chances are the price for my flight will have skyrocketed or the flight will have sold out.

Plane tickets are supposed to cost whatever the airline thinks the market will pay.

Unfortunately that is not public information

I agree with Tom_MN that the cheapest fares at DTW-Delta will be found 6 months out. That's been my experience many times while doing daily checks for several months.

I also agree with his description of Delta's DTW strategy. Another way to describe DTW is "Fortress Hub" - "A fortress hub exists when an airline controls a significant majority of the market at one of its hubs. Competition is particularly difficult at fortress hubs. Examples include Delta Air Lines at Atlanta, Detroit, and Minneapolis/St."

https://simpleflying.com/the-battle-of-the-big-us-hubs-american-vs-delta-vs-united/

"This high domination makes competition difficult, for example from a lack of spare gates or slots. At the same time, it ordinarily keeps fares to/from the hub higher than they might otherwise be, somewhat offset by a much greater network."

The airports with domination of 70% or more are considered fortress hubs:

92%: Charlotte, American
86%: Dallas, American
79%: Atlanta, Delta
75%: Detroit, Delta
73%: Minneapolis, Delta
73%: Salt Lake City, Delta
72%: Houston, United
70%: Washington Dulles, United

Plane tickets are supposed to cost whatever the airline thinks the market will pay.

Unfortunately that is not public information

It is very public information... they show the ticket price on their website 24/7

That's the way free markets work. A plane ticket is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

Plane tickets go up and down 24/7. A $20 increase (or decrease) is not “sudden”. I’ve seen prices rise and fall by the hundreds of dollars in a day. We once took a break for lunch while trying to decide on a route we wanted and saw the ticket price had increased by $300 while we were eating lunch. That one was literally hard to swallow. We waited and watched a few weeks more and one day the price was back to a price we were happier with so we bought. You should keep tracking prices, at least weekly, and buy when you see a price you are comfortable buying.

Having seen prices go up and down by about $500 every two or three days (that was Washington-Dulles to Munich), I really think it's best to check the fare daily. Otherwise, you may miss out on a good opportunity. It takes very little time. Just casually checking every now and then may not be helpful, though you could get lucky.

I was tracking a flight to Vienna and prices were zigzagging by not just hundreds but thousands of dollars. I kept wondering what was driving the ups and downs, were one company's computers surveilling another company's?

Realize that airlines now have rooms and rooms full of computers engaged in "dynamic pricing," so no one ever pays the same as someone else on a flight. It used to be people would casually compare prices as they sat during the flight, it's just too depressing to try that now. But there is ample history available to the common person about what tickets have cost in the past, and you can try to guess what they will be going forward ... keeping in mind that in the post-pandemic world not all the old rules apply anymore.

As the WSJ noted today, you can either buy a non-refundable ticket at a "great" price and then try to get insurance if you have to cancel, or you can buy a pricier refundable ticket so you can sleep at night. Your choice.

This is about a $20 and $39 difference in ticket prices ???!!!

Yep. The cost of my lunch this afternoon. I actually just booked our winter getaway with my TA today. I told him what we wanted, using the screen shot I'd taken this morning. He made the booking for me and told me the price had dropped $45 since this morning. Yay, I guess my lunch was free? So NOT worth getting in such a flap over.

On my computer, the way google flights and kayak similar sites display, there is no option to select "track flights". Due to this fact, I am not technically able to follow any guides for how to set up price alerts.

If you google "how to set up fare alerts on google flights", then scroll past the ads, there will be a couple of items by Google support about how to do it.

If tracking prices is real, it is a nice idea. As I observed, I cannot follow the instructions because the instructions say to click "track prices". On my computer, Google flights does not have a "track prices" link.

Mike; make sure you are logged into Google. Right above the listing of various flights and carriers there should be two sliders. They are as follows: Track prices for a specific date range and another for any dates. You should get emails to your Google account for any price changes.

In terms of whatever reasons you can think of that are not related to price, would it be better to make my trip be Detroit to Oaxaca City, then Mexico City back to Detroit, with possibly another flight between the two cities,

OR the opposite way,

Detroit to Mexico City, and then Oaxaca City to Detroit (possibly with another flight between the two cities)?

As of today, the price of the first option, which I thought I wanted, has increased to $896. The price of the second option is $868.

Neither of these two prices include a flight between the two cities.

Part of the answer depends on where you want to "acclimatize" yourself to a new country.
Mexico City is a very, very large city, overwhelmingly so perhaps, but it is less of a "culture shock" than Oaxaca perhaps? Higher ratio of English speakers too.
Oaxaca would be a more relaxed start to your trip.

Another factor is direct flights vs. stopovers. I suspect that Detroit to Oaxaca involves a change of planes along the way, whereas there are direct flights from Detroit to Mexico City? If that is the case, then I suggest you start in Mexico City: you want to minimize your risk of lost luggage or delays on the way to Mexico; it usually matters less on the way back.

A price difference of $30 is not a factor. I'd start to consider it in my decision at 10%, i.e. $80 or so.

I have 13,530 miles with American Airlines. Is this something I should care about this or should I just see if Delta has better flights?

The prices I gave above were for flights on American.

Flights on American, from Detroit to Mexico City or from Mexico City to Detroit, require changing planes at Dallas-Fort Worth (if I pick the flights I would pick. Other flights stop in Miami, charlotte-Douglas, or worse - New York and switching airports). Flights From Detroit to Oaxaca or Oaxaca to Detroit, require a layover at Dallas-Fort Worth.

As of today, Delta has a non-stop flight from Detroit to Mexico City and from Mexico City to Detroit. If I reserve the multi-city Detroit to Oaxaca City and Mexico City to Detroit trip, and if I pick the non-stop flight from Mexico City to Detroit, as of today, the trip is $909. Delta has multiple flights to and from Mexico City that require changing planes in Monterrey or Atlanta, which makes the trip total $850-$883.

There is at least a 50% chance I won't have to check in any luggage because I only carry 1 to 2 changes of clothes when I travel.

I had not thought about "culture shock". I figure that "culture shock" is 1/3 of the experience of travel. According to gut reaction I won't try avoiding it or worrying about it. I am (irrationally) not going to worry about the language. I taught myself some Spanish words and phrases before I went to Spain. My plan is to teach myself more Spanish phrases but keep my mouth closed most of the time.

I find the idea of starting my trip in Oaxaca more appealing, but this might be irrational (it probably doesn't make a difference whether I see Mexico City first or last).