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Norwegian Airlines' Bleak First Quarter Results

In a post entitled The Noose Tightens at Norwegian as Losses Continue, respected airline blogger Brett Snyder (AKA "The Cranky Flier") analyzes Norwegian's first quarter earnings. It's a worthwhile read for those interested in airlines or for those interested in buying a Norwegian ticket.

I will emphasize that Snyder states Norwegian should have plenty of cash to fly through summer (and I would add through fall), but he notes a number of challenges for the company. The sentence that stands out the most to me follows:

"Receivables have increased by NOK 3,951 million during the quarter
due to increased production, increased hold-backs from credit card
acquirers
and seasonality." (emphasis mine)

As most of you know, receivables are basically money that is expected to come in, but has not yet arrived. The credit card company point is huge. Instead of turning all of the money from credit card purchases over to Norwegian immediately, at least some credit card companies are withholding at least some portion of purchases. The credit card companies have a lot of skin in the Norwegian game. If Norwegian ceases operations (like Air Berlin, Primera Air, WOW Air), the credit card companies generally refund charges for future tickets to those who make claims per their credit card agreement (at the credit card company's loss). It appears that at least some credit card companies aren't sure that Norwegian is going to be around to operate flights sold, so they are holding back money. That's big.

Once again, Norwegian should have plenty of cash and cash flow to operate through summer and fall, so people holding tickets during those times should not lie awake at night worrying about their flights. After that, though, things are less clear. Perhaps the profitability plan works (though it appears at least some credit card companies are doubtful, as are many airline analysts). Perhaps another investor steps up. Perhaps the airline follows in WOW Air's footsteps and ceases operations. Time will tell.

For the record... I honestly don't post things like this to fear monger. I post them to educate consumers. Many travelers see a cheap airfare, and say, "Ooh...what a deal! I'll buy that" without knowing much about the company that is offering that airfare or the possible risk that is built into that airfare. It's good to know the financials of the airline operating your flight to Europe, especially if it is part of your "dream trip" to Europe.

Posted by
894 posts

As a budget minded traveler, I have flown Norwegian Air Shuttle quite often to and from numerous locations. They have served me well. The possibility of their demise certainly looms on the horizon (both theirs and mine) as their absence from the transcontinental / transatlantic menu would greatly impact my future plans.
I am booked on a flight in early October and another later in the month. I sincerely hope Norwegian is around, and I hope I am, too.

Posted by
7054 posts

"Knowing the financials" of any company requires looking at more than just a single quarter's worth of earnings. You don't have enough to go on except for speculation. I wouldn't be able to quantify risk with this (little) information.

Posted by
604 posts

We do have tickets for late August to Berlin flying back mid September, so hopefully things stay ok for Norwegian. I wonder if over time whether they will drop their trans Atlantic flights and stick to intra-Europe only where I believe they have a strong presence . FWIW, its not as if the bulk of their transatlantic flights in the summer, when they have the majority of those flights are all that cheap. The famous 199$ fares are only at the beginning and the end of the season, and also I wonder how many people just get the cheapest tickets and how many upgrade. My point is, the vast majority of Norwegian's trans Atlantic tickets, while cheaper than the legacy airlines, aren't necessarily bargain basement cheap. This speaks to the long term sustainability factor.

Posted by
11881 posts

https://video.qbrick.com/play2/embed/player?accountId=287078&mediaId=94d0c293-00090048-d15bdcf1&configId=default&pageStyling=adaptive&autoplay=false&repeat=false&sharing=false

This is a 40+ minute video on the April 25 meeting releasing Q1 results. Get it direct without an 'expert blogger' getting in the way.

You can go to the Norwegian site-- https://www.norwegian.com/ie/about/company/investor-relations/ to find the above for yourself

Posted by
16291 posts

I'm not as concerned as the quarterly financial as I am with the credit cards withholding cash. That's money the airline needs to operate. And if the credit card companies are doing this, it's a bad sign.

Posted by
6980 posts

Norwegian used the SAS strike as an opportunity to raise their prices (like 8000 kr from Oslo to Stockholm), so I wouldn't read too much into their recent results.

Posted by
4046 posts

The Norwegian Monthly Traffic Figures report: https://www.norwegian.com/globalassets/documents/traffic-figures/traffic-figures-april-2019.pdf

I would agree that those are encouraging numbers for Norwegian, particularly the RASK number (revenue per available seat kilometer). I will note, though, that the April 2019 RASK is being compared to a weak April 2018 RASK (https://www.norwegian.com/globalassets/documents/traffic-figures/traffic-figures-april-2018.pdf).

As noted above, it was also a rough month for one of Norwegian's biggest competitors: https://www.sasgroup.net/en/weak-april-traffic-figures-due-to-pilot-strike/

I'll be very interested to see the May numbers.

Posted by
2260 posts

I am going to Copenhagen in September to take a cruise. I will be flying American to but planning on flying back on Norwegian October 3rd.

I live in Austin, TX and Norwegian began operating from Austin to Europe about three times a week just over a year ago.

Flying from Austin to Europe one way is about 2,600 dollar on the major airlines. On Norwegian, the economy plus will probably cost me about 600 dollars., quite a difference.

I would hate it if Norwegian pulled what WOW did.

When I booked my cruise, I had no idea that the airfares were so expensive. Sticker Shock.