Is Eurostar on Time--What are the percentages?

All the experience I and we have had over the years makes zero difference on the day, because any one day is different than an average, but in the many many journeys I have made by Eurostar from London St Pancras to Paris Gare du Nord, and previously from Waterloo, I have been late twice.

Once there was a blockage of the line by unhappy farmers between Lille and Paris. They made their point and we were on the way after about 20 minutes.

The other time there was a train failure in the tunnel and we were about 45 minutes late into London.

Both of those times the delays were caused externally, and that can happen anytime. All the rest of the time I have been on time, and occasionally a few minutes early into Nord.

The average for Eurostar overall is around 85% within 5 minutes, but as Nigel says the average is not necessarily that helpful.

Using Loco2 as a quick search I see that they aren't offering any through tickets from London to Bayeux after the work starts, or sometimes a 9 hour journey that requires an earlier London departure than you are booked on. This suggests you would be under a minimum connection time that a through ticket would be sold for.

I've taken that route at least 10 times, and arrivals have always been on schedule. A taxi should get you to St. Lazare on time. BTW, are you sure you can't take an earlier train to Paris?

To avoid the stress of missed connections, I would rent a car at Gare du Nord. There are several rental agencies near the station. One of the frequent RS posters (Ed?) has posted directions on getting out of Paris from Gare du Nord and swears it isn't that difficult. I've driven in Paris and it has terrible traffic, but it can be done. One you make it to the autoroute, driving will be easy. Bayeux is a small town so you won't have to worry too much about traffic there.

Eurostar tickets purchased Nov. 24 or later all allow an exchange, with a fee of 40 euros and any difference between the price paid and the price available for sale on the day of exchange. If it will reduce your stress, then do that soon, before low fares sell out. Follow links below, depending on which web site you used to purchase:

https://www.eurostar.com/us-en/manage-booking

https://www.raileurope.com/us/shopping/user_login.htm

http://ricksteves.raileurope.com/rail-tickets-passes/

Just wanted to thank those who answered this, and not be a disappearing OP.

After thinking this through, we found a plan we could work with. We were able to 1) contact Overlord and be rescheduled one day later (they had offered this in my initial question to them about the trains), and 2) contact le Petit Matin, which this early was able to drop the first day of our stay without a charge. We will now, when tickets come up, book a train with a sufficient window (2-3 hours) to transfer without worrying, ending perforce in Caen, and spend the night there. Since we had planned to day-trip to Caen from Bayeux for the Memorial on one of the days, the hassle of a one-night only lodging is offset by saving some back and forth, visiting the memorial the next AM. As an aside, since we are also settling for the Ibis by the train station, the price difference of that one night plus saving 4 tickets for Caen-Bayeux is a substantial savings, and makes up for the fact that we have to buy a much more expensive train from Paris because of the track-work. I had checked with Eurostar and they would indeed consider the changes to the French train schedule a sufficient reason to allow us to rebook our Standard tickets to an earlier train, but not without 30 GBP per ticket administrative costs (a tad less than just buying new earlier tickets). Even if we had to blow off and pay for the first night in Bayeux, this would still have been significantly less than re-booking the Eurostar.

As I said, we were not comfortable with the idea that although unlikely, if a situation happened we would be doing way too much unwanted scrambling. And knowing me, I did not want to be OCD on this for the next 100 days.