"CW Social, can you please tell me more about how you get your upgrades to Polaris?"
I purchase my non-Polaris ticket first. I buy refundable, but that is immaterial to the Polaris upgrades. Unless their pricing algorithms take it into account.
"Do you need to sign up for them after you book your tickets in the app?"
You do not need to sign up. You do have to monitor upgrade prices regularly. And I mean regularly. I've seen their upgrade "offers" go up and down and up within days. Upgrade offers are personalized. Your price isn't my price. I'm sure the algorithm is quite sophisticated.
If so, is it immediately or down the line?
Sometimes I get an upgrade "offer" immediately after clicking purchase. I've seen a little dialogue that will offer various prices for each United (not partner) leg. BTW, this entire strategy is only for the United legs, not any partner flights.
Is there a way to monitor availability and upgrade prices? Yes
Are there strategies involved or do you just wait for the airline to notify you? No
After you buy your flight and the 24 hour free-cancellation window has passed, you can View your flight and Change Seats, as many times as you wish. In the upper right corner of the seat map, you should see prices to upgrade beyond your current seat. Click on a specific seat to see its price for you.
Those prices change a lot. I typically see a bellcurve where they start at $X, curve upwards to a peak of $2X or $3x or even $4X about the time that business travelers are probably buying their Polaris seats. After that window, I typically see the prices begin to arc downwards as the flight date nears.
This all depends on seat availability, of course. If you happen to be flying to (let's say) Frankfurt in the days preceding a big business conference, there might be fewer Polaris seats available and less downward pressure on prices. If seats aren't selling, the United algorithm may try to entice you with upgrade offers.
When you see an offer you like, you should buy it, it may not last long and may not come around again. Until flight date nears. Then things can begin to happen again.
The latest I grabbed a Polaris offer was when I checked in for a flight and decided to take a peek. There was one lonely Polaris seat left, priced at 1/3 of what I had been seeing it previously and far less than what it would have cost when I bought my ticket.
Another good time to check is if you have multiple flights in play. On the day before/of/after one Polaris flight, it's a good time to check all of your other flights for upgrade offers. The algorithm seems to like to tempt you while you're enjoying your Polaris pleasures.
I've seen 2-for-1 offers. I bought domestic tickets for my parents and upgraded them to first during a holiday sale for half price. I don't know as much about when those happen as I'm normally traveling solo.
I may have 4 or 5 or 6 flights booked, stretching into next year. I rarely see more than a single offer, so I'm always checking all of my flights to see what I might find.
I try not to pay too much for my Polaris seats because I don't want the algorithm thinking of me as a "she'll pay anything" profile. I want them to think of me as their "watching for a deal" profile, when they have seat inventory. You have to decide what your upgrade profile is, and stick with it. Each time you upgrade, you are educating the algorithm on what you will pay for Polaris. And it remembers.
Yes, it's time consuming. I track my "flight upgrades" carefully. And I've saved thousands of dollars over purchasing Polaris up front.
And the risk you must be willing to take is that you never see an upgrade offer that you like and you fly your purchased seat.