I can uncross my fingers now, my Aer Lingus refund came through. My travel agent - who booked it - had to pursue the refund (Aer Lingus policy, I don’t know if that’s universal). She charged $100/ticket, which is totally fine, as she was providing a service and travel agents are doing all this work to unwind trips for people and surely not making much.
Good luck to everyone still pursuing refunds!