Flight prices

Why does it matter what it was 4 years ago? Unless you have a time machine, of what use is the info. ?

I found prices to be at least double those from 2019. It is what it is. For a similar itinerary that we previously paid $820 rt, we are paying $1700 this year. And I saw lots of prices over $2000 before I bought the tickets (and stopped looking). If you find a price you can tolerate, buy the tickets. Then don’t look at the prices again, unless you bought refundable tickets. And be prepared for your flight schedule to be changed.

The cost of flights have shot up because of "travel revenge", staffing problems and increased costs which also include wages.

Along with that, it costs more rewards to fly. Planes are now more or less fully booked and airlines have no reason to try to entice passengers with rewards. And there are so many rewards out there because of COVID that airlines are trying to pull rewards in.

During COVID, people bought more and traveled less. Now most passengers have lots of rewards amd want to travel, travel, travel.

So airlines are being stingy with reward redemption.

I was able to get a round trip multi city for October on Delta, from the USA to London and back to the USA from Lisbon. It was about $1,100 or $1,200 with insurance.

However you are traveling during the season and it is right around the corner. Also, what cabins are you looking at.

For better or worse, it's good old supply and demand capitalism.

The most recent numbers say flight costs are up 26% which is a reduction over just 2 months ago. I am returning to Europe in about 21 June (in Europe now on a $800 RT ticket). I will wait until about 7 May to buy. Doubt they could cost more, and some chance they will be cheaper.

Let's say tge ticket is $800 more. On a 16 day trip that is $50 a day more. If your budget before airfare is $250 a day for hotels and everything else then your trip went up 20% and you can probably offset a lot of that with cheaper hotels.

Time to plan more efficient trips to cheaper locations. Budapest instead of Paris or London; or Romania instead of Italy. You might have great experiences for no more cost. Then when prices come down, see the other.

In particular, demand for premium economy seats has risen more than regular coach prices, at least I found that in my research for a trip I recently booked for May to Paris. I ballpark the increase over pre-pandemic prices I paid for similar itineraries in 2018-19 at approximately 40 percent, YMMV...

Time to plan more efficient trips to cheaper locations. Budapest instead of Paris or London; or Romania instead of Italy. You might have great experiences for no more cost. Then when prices come down, see the other.

Excellent advice for the budget conscious travelers who want to stretch their stay in Europe. The difference in cost for lodging and even food is significant.

I don't think the sun has ever risen on a day where waiting till less than 90 days in advance of a European trip to buy your flights ended up being a smart financial move. At least the number of cancelations/changes you will have to deal with will be reduced.

I hope you use JFK or LAX as departure airports because unless you do you will pay at lot extra (as opposed to a little extra) by waiting this long to buy.

Mr E: Good luck on waiting to buy 6 weeks in advance of travel. I always check airfares till the end and a price drop in the last 2-3 months I have never seen, at all.

So many factors in play: fuel costs, competition, new airlines, etc. And prices are very specific to where you are flying from. Airports without direct overseas flights and less competition are going to have more complicated pricing.

BMBGWV,

For better or worse, it's good old supply and demand capitalism.

Yeah, a lot of people forget that it's not about serving their needs, it's about making money. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

"
I don't think the sun has ever risen on a day where waiting till less than 90 days in advance of a European trip to buy your flights ended up being a smart financial move.

I have no idea what this means but I think it means "wait until inside 90 days..

Hmmm... a friend decided to join me on my upcoming trip. I bought my airfare about 5 months ago, she bought about 70 days before the flight... guess who paid a lot more? (Hint it wasn't' me) And we have watched her flights daily as she can get a credit for any fare reduction.... it just keeps going up.

Hi Mister E

How about just vacationing in the USA or for me south of the border. For others north of the border.

We often think flying to Europe but there are places closer to home that we can fly to?

I went back to Google and found a survey bt Cheap-O Air published last September.

The sample was small, 900 million tickets and 3000 destinations and the results were continent specific.

For Europe they determined 1 month to 6.5 months prior with the best time being 79 days prior.

The biggest airport near me is IAH having direct flights everywhere. Oddly enough I can fly out of my hometown, change planes in Houston and it costs tge sane or less ... ot fly one of the few European bound flights out of AUS for less than IAH.

As for staying home, sure, not a bad idea at all.

For Europe they determined 1 month to 6.5 months prior with the best time being 79 days prior.

My observation is that the results vary so much by the level of international traffic per airport that national statistics are pretty meaningless. What's true at JFK or LAX is not at all true at St Louis. Not sure where IAH falls in flights to Europe, probably above average.

Carol: My twisted language was to say that except for the largest airports, waiting till less than 90 days to purchase is not financially smart.

I travel to the same destination in Europe 3 or 4 times a year. I depart either IAH or AUS. I almost always buy 60 to 120 days prior but I do track costs as much as 6 months out (i am always tracking my remaining Schengen time, departure optiins and costs) and I always get the best price +/- $100. And a couple of pretty well done surveys say what I have found is the norm.

BUT, BUT, BUT ..... sure there are thousands of buts, but works for me and probably travelers on average. But sure, watch your particular market to see if it's a variation from the norm.

But I agree, personal perception is more accurate than evaluating 900 million tickets .... in general of course.

personal perception is more accurate than evaluating 900 million

The sarcasm doesn't work. How many Europe tickets are sold originating from St Louis every year, 25,000? How many are sold originating from JFK and LAX every year, 2 million?

The biggest airport near me is IAH having direct flights everywhere. Oddly enough I can fly out of my hometown, change planes in Houston and it costs tge sane or less ... ot fly one of the few European bound flights out of AUS for less than IAH.

I recently experienced the same and quite unexpected situation on nonstops out of DFW to Europe. I live about 3 hours from DFW, so I have the option of driving there and putting my car in long term parking, or catching a puddle jumper connector from my local regional airport that is notoriously expensive for flights to anywhere. Well, on the recent tickets I bought to Paris, it was much cheaper to start my travel from my home airport than it would have been to drive to DFW and board the same nonstop flight - the difference was around $500 per person...this was for premium economy fwiw, so not regular coach that I wasn't checking, but I had never before experienced such a large price differential when booking flights. Google flights is the tool that tipped me off to it...and I confirmed it on the AA site, too.

I have a friend who lives in San Antonio who finds his best deals flying to Europe out of Austin vs departing from San Antonio which would be much more convenient or flying from or connecting through IAH.

Jojo I have seen this for years.

For a while IAH was cheaper if I connected from SAT, then if I drove to IAH and took the same international leg; then it became cheaper if I drove to IAH; now AUS is a tad cheaper than both of the other options (flew to Europe last week out of AUS).

It's hard to guess where the best fares may originate, even the unexpected like SAT with only 9m passengers a year or AUS with 22m passengers a year or STL with 15m passengers a year pay off sometimes with better fares than do the big airports.

You just gotta forget all the conventional wisdom and be creative.

Dear OP. Sorry that your thread has taken the turn that it has. To answer your question, those prices that you are seeing are typical for what many people are seeing for this summer. There is no question that prices are up since before the pandemic, but I'm not sure that you can find too many items or services where that is not also true.

I look for sales and I try to be flexible. I usually start planning fairly far out. I'm going to Europe twice this year. April RT Seattle to London , Saga Class on Iceland Air, $1100. Sept RT Seattle to Munich on Iceland Air, Economy, $1200. You can tell which is the fare that I got on sale :)

JoJo Rabbit, I am seeing the exact same thing for a number of flights this year! Cheaper to fly from my little airport to DFW and beyond than from DFW without that extra flight. Although I have occasionally seen it, I am finding it far more often now and to many varied destinations.

How many of you US-based folks are rethinking summer travel plans to Europe and looking at US travel instead?

We've been planning two weeks in Germany, and other than being restricted to peak summertime (late July/early August), we have a lot of flexibility around specific dates. I've even looked at RT in/out FRA and MUC as well as open jaw in/out of those two (which, to me, have always seemed like two of the least expensive European airports to travel through), and I can't find anything under $1500-1600 p.p. (which is often not a "real" price after factoring in different fare classes or fees).

We've even looked at many other European destinations, because we have a long list of places we'd like to visit, but fares seem to be super high across the board.

I understand "why" this is happening, but it doesn't help much to lessen the subjective frustration. So maybe we'll stay in the US this summer and look at off-peak travel in fall or winter. At least we're getting to Europe next month! (spring break in London)

p.s. I do like Mister E's advice about looking at the cost of air fare split out as part of your daily budget. That can indeed make it feel a bit more palatable, and offer strategies to potentially lower the overall cost of the trip. But it also feels a bit like rationalization ha ha....

Jojo I have seen this for years.

I haven't flown or researched airfares since I last flew to Europe in 2019. At that time, I lived in Colorado, and it was cheaper to fly out of Denver rather than where I lived in Colorado Springs, even though both itineraries connected to DFW for the same nonstop to and from Paris. But that was "normal" pricing then, but today it seems a little upside down. Like you say, be creative, throw out the conventional wisdom, and caveat emptor definitely applies.

For better or worse, it's good old supply and demand capitalism.

For better or worse, classical ecomonic theory has devolved into "control the supply and demand the price you want". Such is the price (no pun intended) for corporate consolidation and deregulation. One location with which I'm familar has a metro population of 200,000. It used to be served by three airlines with eight arrivals and departures daily. Today it is served by one airline with two flights in and out daily. And they only come from and go to one place. It doesn't take an expert in economics to know that the planes are not the only things that went sky high.

While I haven’t kept a chart, but from reading the Wall Street Journal, I know that airfares have skyrocketed due to increased demand.

Mike S

There are plenty of really beautiful places in the USA to explore. And for those living close to the border, there is also Mexico or Canada,

Myself, I only travel once a year and usually it is a cruise. I will be going to London next October and sailing from Southampton to Lisbon.

But there is nothing wrong staying closer to home. We have Hawaii, Alaska, The Virgin islands, Puerto Rico and the continent.

Well in February 2022 I'd bought a ticket for August 2022 travel from IAD to LHR for $648. Right now the same flight similar dates in August 2023 is currently tracking $1200-$1300

Some things to think about --

Aircraft fleet and pilot retirement accelerated during the pandemic. There are about 25,500 commercial aircraft in service in 2022/2023 vs 27,800 in service in 2020

Overall worldwide domestic seat capacity is up 1% in February 2023 over February 2019, but international seat capacity is down 19% February 2023 over February 2019. While passenger demand is expected to be 3% over that of 2019.

Decreased capacity with increased demand at the height of travel season is going to drive up prices.