Current Airfares, What the Heck?

All the airlines have reported softness in bookings for the 1st quarter. I think they are hoping summer bookings will come back and are hoping to make up some revenue with summer airfares, particularly on international routes. Given the last few days, I suspect summer bookings will be weak, too, but it's hard to know. Buying now is reasonable -- I think it's likely you will see sales to goose Sept and beyond bookings but they may show up fairly shortly before travel dates. Make sure you are signed up for Delta's e-mails for last-minute deals. I didn't get any of those e-mails for about 3 years -- been getting monthly ones the last few months.

Jules, have you tried using the AARP discount with British Airways? Any chance you have a British Airways Visa for that 10% discount?
We are flying this spring, on tickets I purchased months ago. I left the Google Flight Alerts on, out of curiosity. Prices are jumping around and changing daily, but nothing near as low as what we paid eight months ago.
Good luck!
PS
Any chance Edinburgh is lower? Doesn't LHR have those high airport taxes?

Wait until you see hotel prices. I'm shocked to see how expensive some cities have become in just a year.

Everything is higher. And the current economic situation is probably not helpful. Just booked a weekend trip to N Orleans in late July -- $500. The new reality and it may get worse.

And the USD is currently weak against the euro GBP.

I thought it would look and see if you overlooked an option. I couldn't find anything as cheap as what you found. I gotta hope prices will come down.

I am planning a trip back to the US in September and I'm looking at similar prices open jaw Budapest to D.C. and Houston to Budapest. I'm going to wait and watch.

Delta doesn’t have economy plus so I’m not sure if you’re looking at their. Economy , comfort seats or their premium select

Your other problem is you’re in a hub city, and Delta takes advantage of those of those who live in their hub cities. This is why I often fly to New York and fly to Europe. Have you considered doing something like that?

@Carol, I guess I always try to find a "generic" term, of which I think there isn't one as far as airlines go. I buy Delta "main cabin" (not basic economy) this allows me to get a credit if prices go down and I get to pick a seat. Occasionally, we get upgraded to comfort plus.

@Pat, thanks for the ideas. We don't have AARP or there VISA :(

Yes, Delta isn't particularly kind to us. I could try flying to NYC or DC(where I have friends), but how do you manage a ticket that isn't connected. Now, more than ever, I feel like anything can happen.

My daughter in law commented that the taxes and fees are higher for flights terminating in London.

Also, the world is crazy right now. . .

Same here in Canada.
Prices are skyhigh to Europe from here this year.
I’ve had alerts going for months and the only way prices have gone is up.

My experience booking total rock bottom economy airfare for a RT maximum 1-stop SEA-FLR itinerary for late November 2025 departure started with my looking for flights on March 10; best price then was Lufthansa thru FRA both ways, at $1082. Continuing to clear browsing history and checking back using Kayak, Skyscanner, Lufthansa, Air France and Delta, got Lufthansa $850.51 fare on March 24 and immediately texted my travel companion that am. We agreed I should book and same day in early pm went to book and price was $1593. Same exact routing, same exact fare class; seems the algorithm clock simply clicked forward and voila, new pricing within a 10-hour timespan. I continued monitoring the Kayak et al sites and on March 27 Delta had RT 1-stop SEA-CDG-FLR outbound / FLR-AMS-SEA inbound routing for $792.11. That I jumped on, right then. This is a short trip, will carry on, jet for long haul flights is Airbus A330-900 neo with 2-4-2 seating and I've got seats both outbound and inbound in 2-seat row which I think is the best you can hope for when schlepping along waaaaayyyyy back in steerage.

@jules. A couple things to know about flying unprotected connections on Delta. One when you get to the airport to check in tell them you have two tickets they link them together. Makes things much easier if you check luggage for example they check it through. It will also assure they help you in the event of a It will also assure they help you in the event of irregular operations

The other thing I do is I just allow a lot of time. I did this recently took to Paris. I got to Boston at about 2 PM, my plane to Paris was not until around nine that night. Luckily I can work remotely so I just camped out and worked for those hours in between, but I do always allow a lot of extra time.

I also don’t believe at all in these algorithm and tracking stories. Because if they were true, I wouldn’t currently have about $150 in credit in my Delta account. Just last night I checked the flight that I booked earlier this week. It went down $20. I rebooked it. That flight I discussed above that I flew from Boston to Paris, I monitored that thing daily for weeks till it got to a price. I wanted it. The algorithm model says that if they know you look the price goes up because they know you want it. That would explain why I wound it an all time low because I monitored it every day. Hmmm……

Flying from the west coast we are used to paying more to get to Europe.

I was surprised at the cost of our tickets in August for Greenland and Iceland. We have been to Iceland many times so knew the usual cost, but we are headed to Greenland with a 6 day stopover in Iceland and that really ramped up the cost. It more than doubled what we normally pay just for Iceland. It was a hard pill to swallow.

Hotels and rental cars were not any more expensive than what we have paid in the past, thankfully. Private excursions in Greenland were actually much less than we were anticipating so that was nice.

I was a little surprised at the costs for the flights for my September trip BUD to IAD and IAH to BUD. So I played around with the dates a little .... no a lot. More surprising was that it didnt matter if I did the trip in June or September or October or November the same cost plus or minus $20. So I think the airlines havent figured out what they are doing for later in the year. I am going to bank on it going down and wait. I also looked as simple RT to IAD or Houston, more or les the same costs. All just under $1000 on one stop flights on either BA or Lufthansa (standard economy including the seat cost). Should be $750 at the most.

Carol, I agree that the algorithm theories are flawed.
Each year when I've gotten business class rates averaging $2500 RT each, I had been searching several times a day for a month. (Time is money, ect.) I booked these fares 8-10 months out.
Hopefully , I will continue to be successful. Good luck to all!

I also don’t believe at all in these algorithm and tracking stories.

There's a big difference between algorithms, which the airlines use to set prices, and the tracking myths - airlines don't directly increase a fare becuse you've queried it repeatedly, so it doesn't do any good to clear your browser cache.

However, their algorithms may track overall interest in a given route, as a lot of people looking implies that some of them will eventually buy. Google may collect revenue from the airlines by sharing the ongoing price tracking alerts that are configured. As the airlines build more AI into their algorithms, they will get even better at predicting prices, and we may see fewer bargains.

Two current phenomena that may put some downward pressure on prices: the price of oil, which is declining; a decline in Europeans visiting the States, following the drop in travel demand from Canadians to the States. Although if the dollar keeps declining, that would make US travel less expensive for Brits and Europeans. And then a lower dollar could result in more expensive fares from the US on European airlines.

And of course if we enter a global recession...

One observation: Norse has started non-stop service LAX=>Rome, and I'm getting alerts of relatively cheap prices. Although with Norse, the rock bottom price you see isn't what you ultimately pay, after all the add-ons. So competition on popular routes from major markets could keep prices down.

@Pat, OOOHHHH! I missed your "PS". I can save a $100/pp if I fly into Edinburgh and out of London. Our first stop on this trip is York. If google maps is correct, It takes 3 hours to get from the Edinburgh airport to York, and its the same to get from Heathrow to York. We've never been to Scotland. It'd be tough to land there and not see anything. It does look like the train ride could be pretty.

In regards to airline algorithms, I've never believed that by stalking a flight that it makes the quoted fare go up. What I do know is that I get harassed via email and Facebook to go back and complete my purchase!

Edinburgh to York- say 4 hours.

30 minutes by tram or bus to Waverley station, allow 30 minutes as you are bound to have just missed a half hourly train, 2 hrs 30 on the train, and 30 minutes to exit the airport/fudge factor.
So essentially the same time as from Heathrow.

If you want interesting entertainment, set Google Flights to track a flight 300 days or so out. Its a freeking yo-yo up and down. Just dynamic pricing at work.

Just purchased my tickets to London. Nonstop Minneapolis to London, RT. $1060, main cabin, the price dropped by about $120/ticket.

Fantastic! Great you continued to check prices and saved some $$$.

Pat- I've seen you post about using the AARP discount with British Airways before, would you mind sharing how to accessed that - Do you first log into AARP and go from there.... Always good to hear of more ways to save on airfare, sorry if this is a digression!

Sandancisco, you first log into aarp, which will takes you into the British Airways site, so you are booking directly with the airlines, choose your flights, and the discount appears. Good luck!

Your other problem is you’re in a hub city, and Delta takes advantage of those of those who live in their hub cities.

I'm not so sure that's true with MSP. It was when I lived in Cincinnati and Delta still used it as a hub. Prices were outrageous, and residents would frequently fly out of Columbus, Indianapolis or Lexington, KY.

But every trip I've taken to mainstream Europe from MSP in the last 5 years has been around $900+.

Jules, glad you got a good ticket price!!!

Mardee, I really do feel like because we are a hub, airfares are more expensive out of Minneapolis. Internationally, if I were able, I'd get better fares from Chicago. I feel like the "hub" effect is most apparent domestically.

I also think Delta is able to skimp on their customers, because, in general, their customer service is better than other airlines, and in many markets there is little competition. By this, I mean, the Delta AMEX is not necessarily a great card to have, "sky pesos" accrue slowly and it takes a lot of them to go anywhere, status is difficult to reach especially, now, when its based only on dollars spent. With all the travel I do every year, people are surprised that I only rarely get status from the airline. And because there are fewer options for us out of Minneapolis, they don't have to offer the perks, especially for the leisure traveler.

I am happy with the fare that I finally got, although compared to the fares I have been getting to Europe over the last few years, I wouldn't call it a "deal".

I've put in approx dummy dates with United, SFO- Paris, Basic Economy, no frills, end of May to ca. 4 August. The non-stop price r/t is in the $1300 range. That's acceptable.

Hotel price on the average for the first full week in June in Vienna is under 90 Euro at the Mercure Westbahnhof with Sunday and Monday under 70 Euro, one of my 5 "go to" Vienna hotels, 4 of which within walking distance from the others.

And because there are fewer options for us out of Minneapolis

Off the top of my head, nonstops from MSP to Europe in peak season:

Delta: Reykjavik, Dublin, London, Amsterdam (2-3), Paris, Rome
Aer Lingus: Dublin
Air France: Paris
KLM: Amsterdam
Condor: Frankfurt
Lufthansa: Frankfurt
Icelandair: Reykjavik

It's not really so meager, and comparing to a huge international airport like O'Hare isn't really useful, and Europeans actually want to visit Chicago so demand both directions. You know, there used to be no options except charters out of Minneapolis.

@Toby, AirFrance and KLM are partner/codeshare with Delta, and I avoid AirFrance with a passion. So anything AirFrance and KLM offer is really equivalent to a Delta offering anyway. I know that the last time that I flew with AirFrance from Paris, they did not fly direct to Minneapolis.

I travel a lot, at all times of the year. In addition to a couple flights to Europe a year, I end up flying within the U.S. frequently. Over the years, I know certain markets are absolutely dominated by Delta. I'm watching to see what Alaska does, but airline tickets to Seattle where Delta has a "minihub", can be quite pricey in comparison to flying from other cities. I suppose you don't consider St. Louis a good comparison, either, but its often cheaper to fly between St. Louis and Seattle on Delta because there is legit competition with Southwest's direct flights to Seattle.

St Louis doesn’t have any nonstops to Europe; the Twin Cities is a larger metro area (maybe 30%) but still 13 nonstops/day is a lot better than zero. The Air France nonstop to/from MSP restarts next month after a Covid hiatus.

Seattle/MSP has the 2 Alaska nonstops and then Sun County has 3 nonstops, with Delta that’s three airlines competing on that run— that’s pretty good competition.

I think Atlanta suffers more with high fares from being a Delta hub.

there are times when I can fly to Europe cheaper from Austin than from Houston. Sometimes cheaper from San Antonio than from Houston when the flight from San Antonio connects with the flight in Houston that goes to Europe.

I am still tracking ticket prices home to the States in September and I am still not impressed with the prices.

@Tom, Not sure why you bring up nonstops to Europe from St.Louis, I was talking about domestic flights to Seattle. It depends on the day of the week with Sun Country. They do not have 3 flights every day. Further, I won't fly Sun Country when my travel is not flexible. If they cancel a flight, it can be a day or three before the traveler can get another flight. I don't think the presence of Sun Country has any impact on Delta prices or scheduling.

AirFrance may be starting up nonstops, but hasn't had one for at least 4 years to Minneapolis. When I wanted to use Skymiles to travel to France, Delta was only offering the AirFrance codeshares. So when we flew home from Paris, we had to fly thru Seattle to get to Minneapolis.

You think MSP has lots of options at reasonable prices. For some markets, I disagree. Lets leave it at that.

I like having good choices, and the prices seem pretty good.