Canceling fully refundable tickets and repurchasing if price drops

I don't see why you couldn't do that. That amount for business class really does not seem so bad...for direct and for May as well.
I would definitely purchase refundable fare--I just substitute that for travel insurance nowadays, as my flight is always the biggest expense and what I purchased insurance for in the past.
PS Would you mind telling me which airport--Milan? If I can get business for k, I might go ahead and book my own!

I do something similar, but not quite the same. I book non-refundable tickets that don't have change fees. If the price drops, I call in to get it re-ticketed and end up with a credit for the difference.

If you go the refundable route it might be valuable to have some extra available credit on the cards you're using. It can take banks days to post refunds, so some of that money/credit could be tied up for up to ta week.

The purpose of the fully refundable fare (at least with the different airlines that I’ve used) is to allow you maximum flexibility. You should be able to cancel then rebook immediately without any issues. I’ve have had to do this on quite a number of occasions. Be careful when canceling as sometimes with one airline the default refund option may be an eCredit. Simply scroll and and toggle refund to your original form of payment.

Yes, I do this all the time with my Alaska flights! Not a problem at all! The miles go back into my mileage account or into a wallet to be used for another flight.

Yes, I did this with United this year and Southwest many times. Be careful to know whether any extras you purchased, such as seat upgrades, will also be refunded.

For example, Southwest fees for their Early Bird Checkin are not refundable. So I'm cautious about when I buy/change/refund those tickets.

With my United refund, the seat upgrade was also refunded. It was more expensive to purchase the same upgrade for the new ticket, but the net savings were worth it.

So I usually fly United, and Polaris is their business class. If you're sure you're going, why pay up for the 'fully refundable' ($3130) when you can book & pay for the 'non refundable' ($2838) tickets. Your tickets are still changeable without paying a fee to rebook, unless you're flying basic economy. I do this fairly often. Book, pay for tickets, cancel, and it goes into your account as a 'trip credit'. You keep 100% of the money as a future travel credit. Since sometime in mid 2020, there have been NO cancelation or change fees on UA. I once saw a much cheaper business class ticket on another route on UA, cancelled, the funds were immediately available, and I booked the cheaper ticket within minutes. Ended up with a $700 credit in my account. You would need an account with UA. And be flexible about using the funds later. I hope that makes sense.... you might like to call UA and confirm it for your own peace of mind, but since I fly RT 3x a year on UA to Sweden, so I'm sure! Looks like the exception to this rule is if you buy a basic economy ticket. https://www.united.com/en/us/fly/travel/trip-planning/flexible-booking-options.html#:~:text=You%20can%20change%20your%20flight,apply%20each%20time%20you%20change.

Thanks everyone— this has been really helpful. I realized in the nick of time my dates were off by a day and I almost purchased the wrong tickets! I decided I need to wait to figure out the details when I’m not so overwhelmed at work and tired in the evenings. Lots of time still. Back to clarifying dates and times, rechecking options, checking hotel availability, etc. and then hopefully still seeing a decent fare and purchasing knowing I can make changes if I see something better. Soon! (If this were a stellar fare I’d try to force myself to do everything tonight, but it’s the same fare I saw a couple of days ago and hopefully won’t change drastically in the next few days.) I’ll check back in with an update soon.

And for US airlines, there's the 24 hour cancelation window - regardless of whether it's a refundable fare.

You keep 100% of the money as a future travel credit

Sandancisco, I also regularly fly United. How long is the United travel credit good when you change a flight? Is it 12 months from booking date? I'm thinking they're not as liberal as Southwest, whose newly non-expiring flight credits have increased my confidence for booking flights before I'm "sure" I'm taking the trip.

ETA: I found my answer
When will my travel credits expire?
https://www.united.com/en/us/fly/travel/credit.html

"In most cases, travel credits expire one year after the date they were issued. The expiration date will be listed on the credit itself."

"If you have a future flight credit, it’s a "travel by" date. This means your trip must begin before the expiration date listed on your credit."

If I'm reading it correctly, that's an odd choice because it would seem to incent travelers to wait as long as possible before canceling their flight.

Hey CW, thanks for that! I travel so frequently it's not been a problem. The OP was trying to decide if they could book a ticket, get a refund & then book another ticket pretty quickly. (And I guess I assume they'd get on another UA flight within a year! HA) Sounds like you found the answer so thanks for the clarification!
Ruth - Yep, better not to be exhausted & frazzled when sorting out travel, it's tiring enough just figuring this stuff out!! Good luck.

Yes, that was definitely a question I'd been wondering for myself, so apologies for the diversion from the OPs scenario.

And a year from date of issue is better than what I was expecting. I used to book non refundable fares all the time. I need to get back to my pre 2020 booking mentality!